US wholesale marketplace mapping for brown shoes

US WHOLESALE MARKETPLACE

MAPPING FOR MID-RANGE BROWN

SHOE BRANDS

AUTHOR: BEN COHEN-LEADHOLM

DATA SOURCE: NPD GROUP, 2008-10

2

CONTENTS

Total market

• Overview with historic trends

Men’s market


• Channel-specific views vs. LY

Women’s market


• Channel-specific views vs. LY

Author: Ben Cohen-Leadholm

Data source: NPD Group, 2008-102

3

TOTAL MARKET



4

WHOLESALE SIGNIFIES 90% OF $30.5 BILLION BROWN

SHOE MARKET

100%

$30.5B

90%

$27.5B

10% ($3.0B)

Full Price ($2.0B)

Outlet ($1.0B)

$30.5B Mono Brand Breakout

Total Wholesale Mono-brand

Retail

US Brown Shoe Channel Distribution

Channel share of Total brown shoe sales in 2010

% change

vs. LY

+5.2% +4.2% +14.4%

% Mens 34% 33% 40%

% Womens 66% 67% 60%

Gender

share



5

RELEVANT WHOLESALE CHANNELS SIGNIFY $15.5 BILLION

MARKET

Total

Wholesale

Dept. store Moderate Field Internet /

catalog

Other

$4.5B

$5.6B

$2.4B

$2.9B

$12.0B$12.0B

(44%)

$15.5B

(56%)

16%

20%

9%

11%

44%

$27.5B (100%)

No

n-r

ele

van

t

Wh

ole

sale

Rele

van

t

Wh

ole

sale

RELEVANT WHOLESALE

Relevant US Brown Shoe Channel Distribution


Apparel specialty

Athletic footwear specialty

Discount/Mass merchant

Off-price

Pro shop

Sporting goods

Warehouse clubs

CAGR

2005-10

+3.3% -0.8% +4.8% +10.8%+1.6% +0.5%

% Mens 33% 19% 32% 29%37% 39%

% Womens 67% 81% 68% 71%63% 61%

Gender

share



6

ADDRESSABLE WHOLESALE MARKET VALUED AT

$10.1 BILLION

Relevant

Wholesale


catalog

$10.1B

(65%)

Non-Addressable

Market

$5.4B

$3.3B

$2.8B

$1.9B 21%

28%

19%

$2.2B

$15.5B (100%)

ADDRESSABLE

MARKET($40-160 AUR)

Ad

dre

ss

ab

le

Ma

rke

t

32% of addressable market

% change

vs. LY

+5.2% -1.8% +11.2% +9.6% +5.7%

% Mens 34% 20% 44% 34%42%

% Womens 66% 80% 56% 66%58%

Gender

share

Addressable US Brown Shoe Channel Distribution




7

3851.4

2372.1

1463.2

850.2720.2

3785.9

2632.8

1492.8

909.4763.9

4078.3

2697.6

1555.0

992.0

762.2

.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET (MEN’S +

WOMEN’S) UP IN $60-$119 PRICE SEGMENTS

$ addressable

market

$9.3B (2008)

$9.6B (2009)

$10.1B (2010)

9%

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+5%

2008

2009

Borderline price

segment

2010

2%

0.2%

8%

4%



8

MEN’S



9

WHOLESALE SIGNIFIES 89% OF $10.3 BILLION MEN’S

BROWN SHOE MARKET

100%

$10.3B

89%

$9.2B

11% ($1.2B)

Full Price ($0.7B)

Outlet ($0.4B)

$10.3BMono Brand Breakout

Total Wholesale Mono-brand

Retail


Channel share of Men’s brown shoe sales in 2010

% change

vs. LY

+5.3% +3.6% +20.1%



10


MEN’S MARKET

Total

Wholesale


catalog

Other

$0.9B

$1.8B

$0.9B

$0.9B

$4.7B$4.7B

(52%)

$4.4B

(48%)

9%

20%

10%

9%

52%

$9.2B (100%)

No

n-r

ele

van

t

Wh

ole

sale

Rele

van

t

Wh

ole

sale

RELEVANT WHOLESALE



Apparel specialty



Off-price

Pro shop

Sporting goods

Warehouse clubs

CAGR

2005-10

+1.1% -3.6% +1.6% +7.0%+0.6% -0.03%



11

ADDRESSABLE MEN’S WHOLESALE MARKET VALUED AT

$3.4 BILLION

Relevant

Wholesale


catalog

$3.4B

(76%)

Non-Addressable

Market

$1.0B

$0.7B

$1.2B

$0.8B 21%

36%

23%

$0.7B

$4.4B (100%)

ADDRESSABLE

MARKET($40-160 AUR)

Ad

dre

ss

ab

le

Ma

rke

t




% change

vs. LY

+4.2% -2.8% +4.3% +14.9% +0.6%



12

1249.1

958.0

611.4

339.6

276.1

1156.7

927.4

598.9

322.7

240.0

1241.4

936.6

601.3

352.3

251.2

.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S ADDRESSABLE MARKET UP IN ALL PRICE

SEGMENTS

$ addressable

market

$3.4B (2008)

$3.2B (2009)

$3.4B (2010)

5%

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+4%

2008

2009

Borderline price

segment

20

10

1%

7%

0.4%

9%



13

192.7

221.6

183.0

77.1

86.7

177.4

202.8

152.1

92.9

59.1

194.6

208.9

116.6

75.669.6

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illi

on

s (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S DEPT. STORE UP AT $60-79 AND

$120-160 PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

20%

$ addressable

market

$0.76B (2008)

$0.68B (2009)

$0.67 (2010)

18%

% Δ in $

vs. LY

-3%

23%2008

2009

Borderline price

segment

20

10

3%

19%

10%



14

684.7

357.9

103.1

37.3 28.6

654.4

333.0

104.5

51.7

17.2

658.0

362.9

111.7

54.423.8

.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S MODERATE UP AT MULTIPLE

PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

36%

$ addressable

market

$1.21B (2008)

$1.16B (2009)

$1.21B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+4%

7%

0.5%

9%

5% 38%

2008

2009

20

10



15

286.5

138.9

43.4

17.48.7

305.2

112.5

40.2

24.1

8.0

282.2

165.9

21.1 18.45.1

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S MODERATE: NATIONAL CHAIN UP

AT $60-79 PRICE SEGMENT

% addressable

market (2010)

15%

$ addressable

market

$0.49B (2008)

$0.49B (2009)

$0.49B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+0.5%

Borderline price

segment

8%

48% 36%

48%

20

08

20

09

2010

24%



16

398.1

219.0

59.7

19.9 19.9

349.2

220.5

64.3

27.6

9.2

375.8

197.0

90.6

36.018.7

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S MODERATE: SHOE CHAIN UP AT

MULTIPLE PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

21%

$ addressable

market

$0.72B (2008)

$0.67B (2009)

$0.72B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+7%

Borderline price

segment

8%

41% 31%

11%

104%

20

08

20

09

2010



17

189.9198.2

176.0

126.7

116.4

155.2

177.4

160.0

110.7

78.6

196.3

160.8

197.9

116.9111.6

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S FIELD UP AT $80-160 PRICE

SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

23%

$ addressable

market

$0.81B (2008)

$0.68B (2009)

$0.78B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+15%

9%

26%

24%

6% 42%

2008

2009

2010



18

181.9 180.4

149.2

98.6

44.4

169.6

214.2

182.4

67.4

85.0

192.5

204.0

175.1

105.4

46.1

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S INTERNET/CATALOG UP AT

$100-119 PRICE SEGMENT

% addressable

market (2010)

21%

$ addressable

market

$0.65B (2008)

$0.72B (2009)

$0.72B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

56%

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+0.6%

46%

13%

4%

2008

2009

2010

5%



19

106.6

93.8

85.3

38.4

25.6

102.2

116.7

92.4

48.643.8

116.7120.8

85.2

50.0

33.1

.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S INTERNET UP AT $60-79 AND


% addressable

market (2010)

12%

$ addressable

market

$0.35B (2008)

$0.40B (2009)

$0.41B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+0.5%

Borderline price

segment

3%

8%

3%

24%

14%

2008

2009

2010



20

75.3

86.6

64.060.2

18.8

67.5

97.5

90.0

18.7

41.2

75.8

83.2

89.9

55.4

13.0

.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

MEN’S CATALOG UP AT $100-119 PRICE

SEGMENT

% addressable

market (2010)

9%

$ addressable

market

$0.30B (2008)

$0.32B (2009)

$0.32B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+0.8%

Borderline price

segment

12% 15%

195%

0.1%

2008

2009

2010

68%



21

WOMEN’S



22

WHOLESALE SIGNIFIES 91% OF $20.1 BILLION WOMEN’S

BROWN SHOE MARKET

100%

$20.1B

91%

$18.4B

9% ($1.8B)

Full Price ($1.3B)

Outlet ($0.5B)

$20.1BMono Brand Breakout


Channel share of Women’s brown shoe sales in 2010

% change

vs. LY

+5.1% +4.6% +11.0%



23


WOMEN’S MARKET

Total

Wholesale


catalog

Other

$3.6B

$3.8B

$1.5B

$2.1B

$7.3B7.3B

(40%)

$11.0B

(60%)

20%

21%

8%

11%

40%

$18.4B (100%)

No

n-r

ele

van

t

Wh

ole

sale

Rele

van

t

Wh

ole

sale

RELEVANT WHOLESALE



Apparel specialty



Off-price

Pro shop

Sporting goods

Warehouse clubs

CAGR

2005-10

+4.3% -0.1% +6.6% +12.6%+2.2% +0.9%



24

ADDRESSABLE WOMEN’S WHOLESALE MARKET VALUED AT

$6.7 BILLION

Relevant

Wholesale


catalog

$6.7B

(61%)

Non-Addressable

Market

$4.3B

$2.6B

$1.6B

$1.1B 21%

23%

16%

$1.4B

$11.0B (100%)

ADDRESSABLE

MARKET($40-160 AUR)

Ad

dre

ss

ab

le

Ma

rke

t


% change

vs. LY

+5.7% -1.5% +17.1% +6.2% +8.4%





25

2602.2

1414.2

851.9

510.6444.2

2629.3

1705.4

893.9

586.7523.9

2836.9

1760.9

953.7

639.7

511.0

.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

WOMENS ADDRESSABLE MARKET UP IN

$60-$119 PRICE SEGMENTS

$ addressable

market

$5.8B (2008)

$6.3B (2009)

$6.7B (2010)

9%

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+6%

2008

2009

Borderline price

segment

20

10

3%

2%

8%

7%



26

882.0

599.8

458.7

317.5352.8

786.6750.8

429.0

321.8357.5

857.8

613.9

413.8385.1

334.6

.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

WOMEN’S DEPT. STORE UP AT $100-119

PRICE SEGMENT

% addressable

market (2010)

39%

$ addressable

market

$2.61B (2008)

$2.65B (2009)

$2.61B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

9%

% Δ in $

vs. LY

-2%

4%

20%

18%

2008

2009

2010

6%



27

859.9

210.3

20.4.0 .0

940.8

268.7

75.734.1 20.8

1030.8

401.9

87.0

25.9 23.5

.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

WOMEN’S MODERATE UP AT $60-99

PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

23%

$ addressable

market

$1.09B (2008)

$1.34B (2009)

$1.57B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

10%

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+17%

50%

15%

2008

2009

2010

24% 13%



28

227.9

26.8

.0 .0 .0

212.8

39.9

13.3 13.3

.0

235.6

69.3

23.214.1

4.7

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

WOMEN’S MODERATE: NATIONAL CHAIN

UP AT MULTIPLE PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

5%

$ addressable

market

$0.25B (2008)

$0.28B (2009)

$0.35B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+24%

Borderline price

segment

74%

‘08

‘09

‘10

75% 6%

11%



29

632.0

183.5

20.4.0 .0

728.0

228.8

62.4

20.8 20.8

795.2

332.6

63.8

11.8 18.8

.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

WOMEN’S MODERATE: SHOE CHAIN UP

AT $60-99 PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

18%

$ addressable

market

$0.84B (2008)

$1.06B (2009)

$1.22B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+15%

Borderline price

segment

9%

45%

2%

2008

2009

2010

43% 9%



30

405.9

257.1

161.4

107.2

53.4

388.4

316.9

151.4

96.582.7

437.4

284.4

179.9

108.190.1

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

WOMEN’S FIELD UP AT $80-160 PRICE

SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

16%

$ addressable

market

$0.98B (2008)

$1.04B (2009)

$1.10B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

19%

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+6%

9%

10%

2008

2009

2010

12%

13%



31

454.5

347.0

211.4

85.9

38.0

513.6

369.1

237.7

134.3

62.9

511.0

460.7

273.1

120.7

62.8

.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illio

ns (

at

reta

il)

WOMEN’S INTERNET/CATALOG UP AT


% addressable

market (2010)

21%

$ addressable

market

$1.14B (2008)

$1.32B (2009)

$1.43B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+8%

25%

15%

20

08

20

09

2010

0.5%

10%

0.2%



32

247.7

198.1

178.3

69.4

29.7

282.5

206.5

152.1

108.7

54.3

304.4311.3

203.5

97.6

55.7

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illi

on

s (

at

reta

il)

WOMEN’S INTERNET UP AT MULTIPLE

PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

15%

$ addressable

market

$0.72B (2008)

$0.80B (2009)

$0.97B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

+21%

Borderline price

segment

8%

51%

3%

2008

2009

2010

10%

34%



33

206.8

148.9

33.1

16.58.3

231.1

162.6

85.6

25.7

8.6

206.5

149.4

69.6

23.1

7.1

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

US

$ m

illi

on

s (

at

reta

il)

WOMEN’S CATALOG DOWN AT ALL PRICE

SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

7%

$ addressable

market (2009)

$0.41B (2008)

$0.51B (2009)

$0.46B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

-11%

Borderline price

segment

2008

2009

2010

11%

8%

19%

10%

18%



Business

US wholesale marketplace mapping for brown shoes