The future of publishing June 2010

the future of publishing

NOBODY CAN PREDICT THE

FUTURE

THE END

NOT REALLY…

BUT PREDICTING THE

FUTURE IS TRICKY…

“With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve

out a big slice of the U.S. market.” - Business Week, 1958

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of

communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”

- Western Union, internal memo, 1876

“Theoretically, television may be feasible, but I consider it an impossibility – a development which

we should waste little time dreaming about.” - Lee de Forest, inventor of the cathode ray tube, 1926

there are 710,000 results to choose from

…here’s 10

1. people will pay for what they value - but not for things they

are forced to pay for

2. winning publishers will

be flexible and agile,

embracing emerging

platforms

…and methodology of distribution will be more vital

than presentation of destination

3. open, de-centralised publishers will win

…closed, silo’d publishers will lose

4. the definition of 'print' will change

…just as the process of

watching TV, listening to

radio and reading news

is changing has changed

5. citizen journalism will fundamentally affect the publishing industry

6. harnessing the wisdom of the crowds will be proven as a

competitive advantage

7. multiple business models will exist, with no

single ‘solution’ winning

…crossing over industry types to aggregate revenue streams

8. consumption will be

markedly different between

alternative machines and

screens

…people won't be forced into unsuitable experiences 

9. differentiation of publisher offering will be from lateral innovation rather than solely

improving content

10. the ease of discovering, sharing and

purchasing will determine success as

much as the content itself

jonathan macdonald

me@jonathanmacdonald.com

jonathanmacdonald.com

linkedin.com/in/jonathanmacdonald

@jmacdonald

thank you