The Easy Way To Stop Estimating

The easy way to stop estimating A guide to reduce waste by dropping the estimation process

Malmö, May 2012

Ángel Medinilla!angel.medinilla@proyectalis.com

@angel_m

www.proyectalis.com/en/blog www.linkedin.com/in/angelm www.slideshare.net/proyectalis

Risk Premium

World Agile Conference

World Agile Conference ?

My Pleasure!

Disclaimer…

This is supposed to be a workshop!

Estimation Game

1 Number 3-6 = X 1 number 5-10 = Y

Estimation Game

1 Number 3-6 = X SPRINTS 1 number 5-10 = Y DAYS PER

SPRINT You will throw one dice for every

day You will add up all throws for a

sprint – that’s your Sprint velocity You will build a table with all your

velocities You will add up all velocities –

that’s your final scope delivery size

Now for some magic…

Bell curve Throughput= X*Y*

All 6 All 1

Avg. 5 Avg. 2

Avg. 3.5

Bell curve

All 6 All 1

Avg. 5 Avg. 2

Avg. 3.5

Medinilla’s principle of project unfairness

3 Throughput= X*Y*

Success Story: Swedish Company

Exercise number 2: burning man project

Burning Man Project

?= 12.000 Scrum$ / sprint ~20 work units / sprint

Burning Man Project

120 work units (~72.000s$)

Burning Man Project

120 work units (~72.000s$) Buffer size: 12 units(~7.200S$)

Burning Man Project

Estimated Real Left Should be Deviation

20 18 100

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 80

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 60

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

Burning Man Project Estimated Real Left Should be Deviation

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

Delay: 0 days V=24 S$=0

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

Burning Man Project

V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

V=18 Delay=-18 (1 sp.)

S$=12.000S$

Burning Man Project

V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

V=18 Delay=-18 (1 sp.)

S$=12.000S$

We can: - Drop scope (~18pt.)

Burning Man Project

V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

V=18 Delay=-18 (1 sp.)

S$=12.000S$

We can: - Drop scope (~18pt.) - Give more time (~1sp.)

Burning Man Project

V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

V=18 Delay=-18 (1 sp.)

S$=12.000S$

We can: - Drop scope (~18pt.) - Give more time (~1sp.) - Add more resources (Brooks law!!)

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

+3.000S$

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

25 28 19 20 +1

+3.000S$

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

25 28 19 20 +1

19 19 0 0 0

+3.000S$

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

25 28 19 20 +1

19 19 0 0 0

+3.000S$

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

25 28 19 20 +1

19 19 0 0 0

+3.000S$

Burning Man Project

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

25 28 19 20 +1

19 19 0 0 0

Burning Man Project

200 18 102 100 -2

2,2 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

2500 20 72 60 -12

22M. 25 47 40 -7

0,25 28 19 20 +1

2¶/3 19 0 0 0

Burning Man Project

200 18 102 100 -2

2,2 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

2500 20 72 60 -12

22M. 25 47 40 -7

0,25 28 19 20 +1

2¶/3 19 0 0 0

Success Story: German Company

Exercise number 3: The

Fake Burn-Down

The Fake Burn-Down Your Team’s average velocity is 36 Start throwing dices. If you score 1-2-3, it’s a

SMALL story (3 points average). If you score 4-5, it’s a MEDIUM story (6 points average). If you score a 6, it’s a BIG story (12 points average). Write every story down.

When you have more or less enough story points (as you would do in Scrum), commit to some stories and stop throwing.

You’ll do a 12 day sprint (you expect an average of 3 points per day). Throw a dice to find out your velocity for every day.

Build a Burn-down while you progress. Write down the results for every day.

On day 12, no matter what happened, the Sprint is over

The Fake Burn-Down

Σ=33 media de 6.6!

The Fake Burn-Down

The Fake Burn-Down It’s not over untill it’s over… But

when it’s over it’s over!

The Fake Burn-Down It’s not over untill it’s over… But

when it’s over it’s over!

Success Story: French Company

Now some theory…

Estimation is WASTE!

Uncertainty

Estimation is not THIS: Probability

Estimation Value

Estimation is not even THIS: Probability

Estimation Value

Estimation is THIS: Probability

Estimation Value

Estimation is THIS: Probability

Estimation Value

Medinilla’s principle of project unfairness

Accuracy vs. effort Accuracy

Estimation effort

Accuracy vs. effort

Good enough!

50-70% accuracy

100% accuracy Accuracy

Estimation effort

The Random Walk

Gedanken: the perfect P.O.

Histogram

Histogram Average

Histogram

95% SLA

80% SLA

Average

Different kind of stories

T-Shirt size XS – 2 days S – 4 days M – 9 days L – 15 days XL – 22 days

Remember the french?

T-Shirt size S– 1 month M – 3 month L – 6 month

Success Story: Spanish SME

T-Shirt size S – 3 weeks M – 2 months L – 4 months

Next steps:

Go story points (size!!)

1 2 3 5

8 13 20 40

Reduce options

Stop estimating tasks

J-43745

“As a client from hell, I want some idiotic and useless feature so I can give some sense to my fake job’!

Est: 20 25

Bck: 3/2/11

Sel: 9/2/11

An: 12/2/11

Dsg: 17/2/11

Tst: 19/2/11

Don: 19/2/11

BufCount: I I I I I I

Left: 18 16 14 19 16 14 9 6 2 0

Task! Task! Task!

Task! Task!

Stop dividing tasks

J-43745

Est: 20 25

Bck: 3/2/11

Sel: 9/2/11

An: 12/2/11

Dsg: 17/2/11

Tst: 19/2/11

Don: 19/2/11

Left: 18 16 14 19 16 14 9 6 2 0

Open Space option: count by tasks

J-43745

Bck: 3/2/11

Sel: 9/2/11

An: 12/2/11

Dsg: 17/2/11

Tst: 19/2/11

Don: 19/2/11

Task! Task! Task!

Task! Task!

Better option: count by stories

J-43745

Bck: 3/2/11

Sel: 9/2/11

An: 12/2/11

Dsg: 17/2/11

Tst: 19/2/11

Don: 19/2/11

Use histograms to provide SLA’s

Finally: estimate only t-shirt size!! (but still measure for histograms)

Final Thought…

Thank you and Blog it!!!

angel.medinilla@proyectalis.com

This presentation is based upon the ideas and work of many people. And while I’ve tried to recognize copyrights and give credit and attribution where possible, I cannot possibly list them all, so if you feel like there’s something that should be added, changed or removed from this presentation, please drop me an e-mail at angel.medinilla@proyectalis.com

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/

The Easy Way To Stop Estimating - Workshop

Business

Visual Basic 6.0 Made Easy - This is the free one-stop Visual

Estimating the Crash Reduction and Vehicle Dynamics Effects ......Estimating the Crash Reduction and Vehicle Dynamics E˜ects of Flashing LED Stop Signs Gary A. Davis, Principal Investigator

Enhanced Easy-Stop TM Trailer ABS Training. Enhanced Easy-Stop Trailer ABS System configurations to meet any air-braked trailer application 2S / 1M, 2S

Estimating Film Lengths - Scene Savers · Estimating Film Lengths When starting any film project, a question usually asked is, how much film do you have? Of course it’s easy to

Saw Stop - Seg-Easy Solutionssegeasy.com/sawstop.pdf · Saw Stop It works Side View Bottom view Top View This saw stop is simple and can be modified many ways. By using a digital

ENHANCED EASY-STOP TRAILER ABS WITH PLC

Riding TheBus is Easy! Pull cord to request a stop. · Riding TheBus is Easy! Panagsakay iti bus ket nalaka! Look for TheBus Stop nearest you. Kitaen laeng iti kaasidegan nga pagsardengan

AC Fill Stop Valve Instructions - Leader Evaporator - … Fill Stop Valve Instructions Page: 2 INTRODUCTION / DESCRIPTION The LEADER Fill Stop is designed to allow for easy and efficient

HOW TO ACCESS THE Enhanced Easy-Stop Trailer ABS with PLC

Clutch Stop Mod by moremonkey’s Stan · Version 1 (Quick/Easy): The clutch stop described here uses a Home Depot sourced door knob stop, or comparable. Shepherd PN 9573. The idea

STOP SMOKING - Riverside Medical Clinic · help you stop smoking now. YOU CAN You are right, it isn’t easy. But we know that you can stop smoking. Our instructor, V.J. Sleight,

10 easy ways to stop overspending on healthcare

Estimating the Crash Reduction and Vehicle Dynamics Effects ...Estimating the Crash Reduction and Vehicle Dynamics E˜ects of Flashing LED Stop Signs Gary A. Davis, Principal Investigator

Enhanced Easy-Stop™ with PLC and Easy-Stop™ Trailer ABS · WABASH ABS RETROFIT KITS WABASH MBS-1/MBS-1P RETROFIT KITS PART NUMBER DESCRIPTION SYSTEM KIT INCLUDES R955374 2S/1M

Stop the Creepers and Cyberbullies! 5 Easy Ways to keep yourself safer online!

The Easy Way To Stop Smoking

Dont Stop Believin Completos (easy version)

Enhanced Easy-Stop Trailer ABS with PLC · Meritor WABCO’s Enhanced Easy-Stop™ Trailer ABS with PLC. Before you begin procedures: 1. Read and understand all instructions and procedures

Project Management for Microsoft Dynamics 365 · Project Management for Microsoft Dynamics 365 Project Estimating and Proposals • Templates for easy estimating • Project Configurator