Paul Fisher

Miaad KhayatianTim EldridgePaul Fisher

Rapid assessment of future transport needs

for Perth

1. Background

2. Approach

3. Methodology

4. Outcomes

5. Summary & conclusion

6. Acknowledgement

Presentation structure

Background Perth & Peel Regions

Metropolitan Region SchemeGrew out of Stephenson Hepburn Plan

Population2014: 1.8 m2031: 2.6 m2052: 3.5 m

Background Scenarios

Directions 31 sets out 3 development scenarios:• Polycentric city• Development concentrated around regional

activity centres• Dispersed• Business as usual – suburban sprawl

• Semi-polycentric• Hybrid of the two

Background Urban Economic Study

DoP appointed Pracsys to deliver economic study of 3 scenarios.

Main cost drivers:• Water• Energy• Transport

GHD undertook transport component

Background Urban Economic Study

Study is in two phases:

1. Proof of concept (finished)

2. More detailed analysis (under way)

Approach Type of model

• Time & budget constraints• Rapid, low cost, high level output required• Conventional modelling not suitable

Rapid assessment approach• Trip generation• Demand per corridor• Existing capacity• Required infrastructure

Methodology Trip generation

DoP and Pracsys generated• 621 employment zones• 175 residential zones• Home – work trips (gravity model)

GHD generated• 56 zones mapped to the Pracsys zones• Total morning peak trip numbers

Methodology Travel corridors

• Spiderweb diagram• Travel corridors v planning corridors• Adjust trips to corridors

Methodology Screenlines

Screenlines placed strategically across corridors42 screenlines in proof of concept study140 screenlines in detailed study

Methodology Capacity and shortfall

At each screenline:

a) Calculate demandFrom spiderweb diagram

b) Calculate existing capacityRoad, rail, bus

c) Shortfall = demand – existing capacity

Methodology Spreadsheet model

Methodology Required infrastructure

Infrastructure recommendations

informed by:• 2031 Public Transport Master Plan • Moving People• Moving Freight • Other forward planning

Methodology Required infrastructure

New infrastructure suggested

1.Additional road and freeway lanes where already planned

2.Better utilisation of existing roads3.Improved heavy rail capacity4.Bus lanes and bus rapid transit5.New light rail6.New heavy rail

Methodology Required infrastructure

Outcomes PT mode share

Proof of concept 2011 2031 2052Current 10%Modelling outcome 40% 60%Agency target 14% 19%

Outcomes Costs

Scenario

Population

Polycentric($ billion)

Semi-polycentric($ billion)

Dispersed($ billion)

Current to 2.6 million

14.86 17.01 14.18

2.6 to 3.5 million

17.90 21.60 34.84

Total 32.76 38.61 49.02

Outcomes Some key points

• CBD environs will remain largest employment centre• Up to 2.6 M population, current PT

planning is adequate• After 2.6 M, new links needed rapidly• Northern suburbs railway will hit capacity

before 2031 – new East Wanneroo railway required• North / central corridor (Mirrabooka to

CBD) is a weak link

Outcomes Some key points

• Legacy railways have excess capacity• Extra capacity needs to be achieved from

existing roads• Spatial location of population and

employment is key to good transport outcomes.

Conclusion Proof of concept

Rapid, low cost, high level assessment of infrastructure requirement

• Three development scenarios with two population targets

• Method relies on simple arithmetic and engineering judgement – agreed with transport agencies

• Proof of concept model is coarse-grained but results pass sanity test

• Mode share skewed to PT

Conclusion Next steps

• More fine-grained analysis under way• Revised population / employment

distribution• More zones, corridors and screenlines• Mode share needs attention

Acknowledgements

• Department of Planning, Western Australia

• Pracsys

• Department of Transport

• Public Transport Authority

• Main Roads Western Australia

Email: paul.fisher@ghd.com

www.ghd.com