PT Black

Consumer behavior in China

Trend Spotting

2

How we spot trends

Desk Research

Focus Groups

Ethnography

Expert Interviews

Quant Surveys

In-depth Interviews

3

How we spot trends

4

TheAnatomyof a Trend

5

Phenomena

6

Phenomena

Parkour

7

Phenomena

Martian & Brain-disabled

Language

Phenomena

- Tangible

- Limited in scope

- Niche (often)

- Short-lived(often)

8

9

Root

10

Root

Self-expression

11

Root

Eco-consciousness

12

Root

- Fundamental - Slow changing

- Broad implications

- Generic

13

Trend

14

Trend

A specific perspective on a changing phenomenon that identifies its reasons for being and provides (some) prediction for where it is going

15

Martian Language

Self-Expression

??

16

(Re) Mastering Writing- Playful expression- Exclusive / tribal- Written word

17

Trend Thinking

I.Find Connections

II.Dig for Reasons

III.Embrace the Future

But…China is of course unique

18

19

I. A different pathway of influence: yesterday

Mainly overseas Outward-looking

Metros and big Cities

Eclectic and out of context

Originator Mediator Adopter

Mainstream

20

I. A different pathway of influence: today

Originator Mediator Adopter

Mainstream

Increasingly Chinese

Inward looking Same-time access as

internationalConnected and participating

21

II. Dominance of New Media

Leapfrogging over traditional media

Fueled by infrastructure investment

Legal and Distribution

22

III. Elastic Definitions of Value

Age Gap

Economic Gap

Legal and Distribution

Uneven change

23

IV. Geography: yesterday

24

IV. Geography: yesterday

25

A Few Worthwhile Trends

26

Simplicity, Health, Sophistication

Stripped-down aesthetics

27

Digital Rise, Generation Gap, Self Expression

Isolated spheres

28

Sophistication, Value gap, Luxury Trickle Down

Amateur Tutorial

29

Simplicity, More cars, Mobile tech

Urban Escape

30

Self-expression, Tribalism, Generation gap

More Trends!

Web in-jokes,Language Shift, Splash hits

31

Final Thoughts

32

Tips for trend spotting- Look at the margins – fanatics and laggards

- Lifestyles trickle down; start with the wealthy

- Cast the net wide

- Challenge your thinking

Thank You!