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José Daniel Anido RivasAt the
Centro de Investigaciones Agroalimentarias (CIAAL), Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela. e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
Address: Núcleo La Liria, edificio G “Leocadio Hontoria, 2º piso, CIAAL.Mérida 5101, Venezuela
Food changes and food security:main effects of economic and tradepolicies on Venezuelan consumer,
1990-2002
1. Introduction2. Methodological Aspects3. Chronology of the Main Economic and Trade
Policies implanted in Venezuela, 1989-20024 The Effects of Policies on the Main Variables
Related to Food Security5. Conclusions6. Questions and comments
Inside …
1. Introduction• 45 years of democratic era (1958-2004)
• An increasing stage of Investment and GDP (until 1978), followed by a deep decreasing stage
Venezuela: Evolution of real per capita income, 1957-2002
20.000
22.000
24.000
26.000
28.000
30.000
32.000
34.000
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Con
stan
t Bol
ivar
es o
f 198
4
• Adjustment requirement: the recent era
V e n e zu e la : P riv a te re a l p e r c a p ita in v e s tm e n t, 1 9 5 7 -2 0 0 0
S o urc e : Ac u erd o S o c ia l , 2 0 0 3
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Ye a r
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
1 4 0
Thou
sand
s of
con
stan
t Bol
ivar
es o
f 198
4
P rivate re a l p e r c a p ita in ve s tm e n t
Methodological Aspects…• Purpose: show the impact of economic and trade policies on the
food changes in Venezuela, specially during the last threegovernments (1989-1992)
• Indicators: economic policies goals, macroeconomics variablesand food availability, consumption and security variables
• Sources: economic policies goals, macroeconomics variablesand food availability, consumption and security variables(Planning Ministries of different periods, Central Bank ofVenezuela, National Institute for Nutrition, Universidad de LosAndes, Secondary sources, own calculations)
Structural adjustments (1989-1992)
Chronology of Policies…
Carlos Andrés Pérez II* Freeing prices of goods* Goods and services opening markets* Floating exchange currency (flexible and unique)* Financial reforms * Stimulus for foreign investment* Privatization program * Less State, More Market* Agri-food sector subsidies elimination or substitution* Agricultural portfolio reduction * Fringe prices to protect agricultural domestic production
Non-orthodox and Orthodox adjustment (1994-1996)
Chronology of Policies…
Rafael Caldera II* Emergency measures to rescue the financial system * Exchange control (until April 1996)* Enrollment in the World Commercial Organization (1995)* Group of Three and other regional integration agreements* Practice of fixing minimum prices in some agriculture goods* Social programs: Strategic Food Program (PROAL) and School Food Program * The Venezuela Agenda (1996), economic equilibrium and fight against inflation:- Floating exchange rate (no more exchange control)- Freeing interest rates- Public expenditure discipline (but without forgetting social matters)- Taxes increase
The Bolivarian Revolution (1999-2000 and 2001 until present)
Chronology of Policies…
Hugo Chávez•Institutional reform: Constituent process and New national Constitution (1999-2000) to “achieve sustainable and diversified economic growth, reduce inflation and increase the employment level, through fiscal and monetary policies”•The National Economic and Social Development Plan 2001-2007 to achieve 6 goals• The "missions" (Misiones, in Spanish: Robinson, Sucre, "Barrio Adentro", Identity... )
4. Main impacts…Concerning the main variables of food availability
Venezuela: main variables of food availability
Source: MAT, BCV, INN-ULA, Own calculations
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Years
25
26
27
28
29
30
Thou
sand
s M
illio
ns (b
illion
s) o
f con
stan
t Bs.
2.000
2.200
2.400
2.600
2.800
3.000
Calories/people/day
Agricultural GDP Food availability for human consumption
Pérez Caldera Chávez
0
10
20
30
40
50
Food
impo
rts a
s %
of t
otal
ava
ilabi
lity
Food imports (5)
4. Main impacts…
Source: INN-ULA (Several yars; own calculations
Graph 3. Venezuela: changes on food patterns of calorie intake, 1989-2002
0
50
100
150
200cer
rt
sugars
leg
nutV
veg
fruMeats
Eggs
fishes
milks
fatA
Sti
1989-1993 1994-1998 1999-2002
4. Main impacts…
(in average percentages…)1989-93 1994-98 1999-2002
Cereals 38,4 38,3 37,0Roots and tuber dry 5,5 5,5 6,5Sugar and sweeteners 15,8 17,4 16,5Legumes 2,2 1,9 1,7Nut and oilcrop seeds 0,1 0,1 0,1Vegetables 0,6 1,0 1,3Fruits (except platain) 4,6 4,5 4,3Meats 6,4 6,6 7,5Eggs 0,8 0,9 1,0Fish and shellfishes 1,5 1,8 1,7Milk and derivatives 6,2 5,7 5,9Visible fats 17,0 15,2 15,3Spices 0,0 0,0 0,0Stimulants 0,7 1,1 1,3TOTAL FCA (Kcal) 100,0 100,0 100,0
4. Main impacts…
Indicator / year Weigth-for-Height (WfH) Weigth-for-Age (WfA) Height-for-Age (HfA)1990 16,06 24,77 31,081993 12,17 18,22 28,431994 11,44 17,87 28,651999 11,74 18,79 29,102002 12,92 18,93 28,89
Source: INN (several years)
Venezuela: Prevalence of malnutrition in child population, 1990-2002(in percent values, %)
…Decreasing figures on malnourish, but followed by an moderate growth (except in HfA)
Concerning the infant nutritional situation…
5. Main conclusions…
3. During 1989-1993 and 1994-1998, there was a strong linkbetween “food Import” and “food availabilities”. It changed inthe 1999-2002 (agri-food GDP is now very correlated)
1. Three different kinds of policies: Structural adjustment or orthodox(1989-1993): non- orthodox and orthodox measures (1994-1998) and“mixture” of policies (1999 until present) were observed
2. An strong decreasing trend in GDP, private investment, percapita real income; and increasing trend in the agri-food GDP
4. Irregular behavior in de FCA along de 1989-2002 period;however during FCA grew up in the 1989-1992; drop in 1993-1998period and trend to increase since then
5. An important decline in the infant nutritional indicators (inrelative terms); however, in absolute terms they presentedalarming values
The End
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