GBR tourism barometer 2013 Q1

Tourism Barometer2013 Q1

Expectations of theGreek Hospitality Sector

January 2013

Survey characteristics• The Q4 Survey ran from 18 – 31 January 2013, among

hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece;

• The survey was anonymous and 198 hotels completedthe online questionnaire, of which 163 fully. Thedistribution of those was as follows:– 49% are city hotels and 51% resort hotels;– 22% are 5*, 32% 4*, 20% 3*, 25% 2* and 1% 1* hotels.

• The survey includes forecasts for 2013 Q1 as well as for2013 as a whole.

• Survey results are published in the press and onwww.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer

Main Conclusions• The Greek hotel sector is optimistic for 2013 overall, with increasing

occupancy levels and stabilising room rates.• However, this optimism does not include the first quarter of 2013, for which

stabilising occupancies were forecasted with declining room rates, but apparentlyhoteliers are expecting improvements beyond Q1.

• City hoteliers are expecting improvements in occupancy levels, but decreases inroom rates in 2013. Overall RevPAR in 2013 is expected to be on par with 2012.

• Also the Athenian hoteliers are predicting that the fall in occupancy and roomrates of recent years will more or less bottom out in 2013. They expect stabilisingoccupancy levels and slightly lower room rates.

• The resort hoteliers expect a very good year. Occupancy performance isexpected to strongly improve, while room rates are also forecasted to increase,albeit at a lower level than occupancy.

• The 5 and 4 star hotel sectors see positive developments with increases inoccupancy and room rates levels. The 3 and 2 star segments are more cautiousas they forecast stabilising to slightly increasing occupancy rates, but decreases inroom rates.

7%

18%

19%

19%

37%

• All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter withrespect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for:– their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page– the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page

How to read the Quarter meters

37% expectsstabilisation –

between -2% and +2%

18% expects anincrease -

between 2% and 5%

7% expects anincrease –

more than 5%

19% expects adecrease –

more than 5%

The needle shows theoverall expectation /

feeling1

19% expects adecrease –

between 2% and 5%

1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where theincreases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%

Survey resultsExpectations for 2013 Q1

• All hotels• City hotels

– Athens hotels– Thessaloniki hotels– Other city hotels

• Resort hotels– Crete hotels

• Hotels per category– 5 star hotels– 4 star hotels– 3 star hotels– 2 star hotels

Expectations for 2013 Q1

19%

9%34%

24%

14%

«MY HOTEL»

All hotels

The outlook of theGreek hoteliers for thefirst quarter of the newyear of 2013 showsstabilising occupancylevels compared tosame quarter last yearand falling room rates.

Contrary to what iscustomary, Hoteliersare of the opinion thatthe market in generalwill outperform theirown hotels, as theyexpect slightly biggerincreases in occupancyand smaller drops inroom rates comparedto their own hotels.

5%

11%

48%13%

23%

20%

24%29%

19%

8%

«MARKET IN GENERAL»

1

21%

12%40%

17%

11%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%

% of respondents that expected


25%

12%39%

17%

8%

«MY HOTEL»

City hotels

The city hoteliersexpect further drops inboth occupancy androom rates this quartercompared to samequarter last year. Theexpected drop inoccupancy will be lessthough than theexpected drop in roomrates.

Forecasts for their ownhotels are at a similarlevel as the forecastsfor the market ingeneral. For both, mosthoteliers expect astabilising trend thisquarter for bothoccupancy and rates.

3%5%

48%14%

30%

1

10%

18%

32%

26%

13%


26%

17% 38%

11%

8%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



21%

17% 48%

14%

«MY HOTEL»

Athens hotels

The Athenian hoteliersremain pessimistic asthey expect significantdrops in bothoccupancy and ARRfor the first quarter of2013 compared to Q12012. The market ingeneral shows asimilar trend, where atleast a quarter of thehoteliers expect dropsof 5% or more for bothoccupancy and roomrates.

A large group expectsa stabilising trend forboth their own hotel aswell as for the marketoverall.

7%

50%18%

25%

4%14%

39%

25%

18%


27%

19% 38%

15%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



25%

13% 19% 19%

25%

«MY HOTEL»

Thessalonikihotels

Hoteliers inThessaloniki expectstabilising occupancylevels and falling roomrates this first quarter.

For the market overallhoteliers are muchmore negative in theirforecast as they predictsharply fallingoccupancy and roomrates. About 38%predicts drops of 2% ormore in terms ofoccupancy and 36% asimilar level of drops inroom rates.

14%

7%

43%7%

29%

6%

25%

31%

31%

6%


29%

7% 50%

7%

7%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



28%

6%41%

19%

6%

«MY HOTEL»

Other city hotels

The city hoteliersoutside Athens andThessaloniki expectsignificant drops inboth occupancy androom rates, while forthe market in generalthey are moreoptimistic withstabilising occupancylevels compared to thesame quarter last year,and smaller drops inroom rates whencompared to their ownhotels, where 35%expects drops inAverage Room Ratesof 5% and more.

3%

48%13%

35%

18%

18%27%

24%

12%


25%

19%31%

9%

16%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



10%4%

26%36%

24%

«MY HOTEL»

Resort hotels

Contrary to the cityhotels, managers ofresort hotels areoptimistic for the firstquarter of 2013.

They forecast sharpincreases in occupancylevels and stabilisinglevels of room rates.

For the market overallthey are even a bitmore optimistic.

9%

20%49%

11%

11%

33%

31%24%

10%

2%


1

12%

6%

43%24%

14%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



26%

36%

24%

«MY HOTEL»

Resort hotelsin Crete

The hoteliers in Creteare by far the mostoptimistic of thebarometer survey ofthis quarter.

For their own hotelunits nobody predicteda drop, nor inoccupancy nor in roomrates. A vast majorityof 83% expects thattheir ARR will be ataround the same levelas last year’s Q1, butwith soaring occupancylevels.

8%8%

83%

31%

46%

15%

8%


8%

50% 25%

17%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



10%

10%

33% 17%

30%

«MY HOTEL»

5 starhotels

The 5 star hoteliershave given a verysimilar forecast for boththeir own hotels and forthe market as a whole.

They expect sharpincreases in occupancythis first quarter withsimilar room rates aslast year’s first quarter.

30% expects increasesin occupancy levels of5% and more for boththeir own units as wellas for the market ingeneral.

7%

18%

50%

14%

11%

1

30%

17%27%

17%

10%

15%

11%

41%

22%

11%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




16%

5%

32% 30%

16%

«MY HOTEL»

4 starhotels

Like the 5 starhoteliers, the 4 starhoteliers are alsooptimistic with smallincreases in occupancyand stabilising roomrate levels.

For the market as awhole they are moreoptimistic withconsiderableimprovements inoccupancy this quartercompared to last yearand stabilising roomrates.

8%

11%

56%

14%

11%

18%

36%28%

15%

3%

14%

11%

42%19%

14%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




27%

13% 27%

30%

3%

«MY HOTEL»

3 starhotels

Contrary to the 5 and 4star hotels the 3 starhotels are not thatoptimistic for the startof 2013.

They expect emptierhotels this quartercompared to last years’Q1 as well as sharpdrops in their AverageRoom Rates.

The forecasts of themarket in general areat a similar level of theforecasts of their ownhotel units.

1

4%11%

46%11%

29%

13%

20%27%

27%

13%

25%

18% 43%

11%4%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




24%

7%41%

21%

7%

«MY HOTEL»

2 starhotels

The 2 star hotelierspredict mild drops inoccupancy levels fortheir own hotels andsignificant drops intheir room rates thisquarter. An astonishing44% expects drops of5% and more.

For the market overallthey are much morepositive withimprovements inoccupancy levels.However, they alsopredict sharply fallingroom rates albeit notas much as for theirown hotels.

4%

40%12%

44%

20%

20%31%

20%

9%

31%

10% 31%

14%

14%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




Expectations for 2013 as a whole

Survey resultsExpectations for 2013 as a whole

• All hotels• City hotels

– Athens hotels– Thessaloniki hotels– Other city hotels

• Resort hotels– Crete hotels

• Hotels per category– 5 star hotels– 4 star hotels– 3 star hotels– 2 star hotels

10%

11%

24% 34%

21%

«MY HOTEL»

All hotels

The Greek hotel sectoris optimistic for 2013.

Hoteliers areforecasting increasingoccupancy levels andstabilising room rates.

Forecasts for their ownhotel units and for themarket as a whole areat a similar level.

This optimism is notbased though on thefirst quarter of 2013.Apparently hoteliersexpect improvementsbeyond Q1.

1

12%

21%43%

12%

12%

24%

32%23%

10%

12%


13%

13%

41%19%

14%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



12%

17%

26%30%

16%

«MY HOTEL»

City hotels

The city hoteliers aremore optimistic for thewhole year than for thefirst quarter of thisyear.

They expect mildincreases in occupancylevels and drops up to5% overall in roomrates.

The outlook for themarket in general issimilar to the forecastsof their own hotels.

9%

17%

44%

14%

16%

13%

31%27%

12%

17%


1

17%

17%

43%

14%

9%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



3%

23%

37%

27%

10%

«MY HOTEL»

Athens hotels

For 2013 as a wholethe Athenian hoteliersforecasts to perform ata similar level as 2012,which would mean thatthe continuous fall inrecent years ofoccupancy and roomrate levels hasbottomed out. Theyexpect similaroccupancy levels aslast year and milddecreases in roomrates.

Their own hotels areexpected to perform onpar with the market asa whole.

10%

10%

47%

23%

10%

1

10%

30%27%

7%

27%


13%

23%

40%

13%

10%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



19%

13%13%

38%

19%

«MY HOTEL»

Thessalonikihotels

Hoteliers inThessaloniki expectanother increase thisyear in occupancylevels, while roomrates of their ownhotels are expected tostabilise.

For the market overallthe room rates areexpected to dropslightly.

1

13%

19%44%

6%

19%

1

6%

50%19%

13%

13%


1

13%

19%

44%

19%

6%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



16%

13%

23% 29%

19%

«MY HOTEL»

Other city hotels

Also the other cityhotels are following theoverall trend of the cityhotels: improvementsin occupancy levelsand decreases in roomrates. Thus RevPAR isexpected to be at thesame level as 2012.

Forecasts for their ownhotel are very similar tothe forecasts for themarket overall. 19%

23%32%

16%

10%

6%

23%

42%10%

19%


23%

10%45%

13%

10%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



8%5%

22%38%

27%

«MY HOTEL»

Resort hotels

The resort hoteliersexpect a good year.

Occupancyperformance isexpected to improvestrongly for their ownhotel units. They alsoexpect improvementsin room rates.

For the market ingeneral hoteliers arevery positive withsignificantly higheroccupancy and roomrates levels.

35%

32%19%

8%6%

16%

25%42%

10%8%


9%

9%

39% 24%

18%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



30%

50%

20%

«MY HOTEL»

Resort hotelsin Crete

Following an expectedstrong Q1 of 2013 theyalso predict a verygood year overallwhere 80% ofrespondents expectincreases in occupancyof 2% or more and42% a similar increasein room rates.

Similar levels ofoptimism can be seenin the barometres ofthe market in general.

16%

26%53%

5%

40%

40%

5%15%


5%

42%32%

21%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



29%

32%18%

18%3%

«MY HOTEL»

5 starhotels

The 5 star hoteliersexpect a positive yearwith strongimprovements inoccupancy comparedto last year andincreases in roomrates.

They are not onlyoptimistic for their ownhotel units, but also forthe 5 star segment asa whole.

30%

36%12%

6%

15%

1

15%

26%38%

15%

6%

6%

21%

39%21%

12%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




26%

42%

24%

6%2%

«MY HOTEL»

4 starhotels

The 4 star hoteliers arevery optimistic for2013. A vast majorityexpects increases of2% or more for theirown hotels and around42% similar increasesin room rates.

Also for the 4 starsegment overall thehoteliers are verypositive for 2013 withincreases in bothoccupancy and roomrate levels.

1

18%

24%45%

8%4%

31%

33%24%

4%8%

1

10%4%

43% 22%

20%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




10%

29%35%

10%

16%

«MY HOTEL»

3 starhotels

Contrary to the verypositive outlook for2013 of the 5 and 4star hoteliers, thehoteliers in the 3 starsegment are morecautious. They expectstabilising occupancylevels for both theirown hotels as well asfor the market overall.

In terms of room ratesthey are predictingdrops in comparisonwith 2012, both fortheir own hotels and forthe market in general.

13%

29%32%

6%

19%

10%

10%

52%13%

16%

19%

13%45%

13%

10%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




18%

29%21%

13%

18%

«MY HOTEL»

2 starhotels

The 2 star segmentshows a mixed picture.They expect pressureon their room rates thisyear, while theiroccupancy is expectedto improve.

The market in generalshows a similar pictureas the barometers oftheir own hotels.

5%

21%

37%16%

21%

1

18%

26%

26%

18%

11%

1

16%

18%37%

18%

11%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




4, Sekeri Street106 74 AthensPhone: +30 210 3605002Fax: +30 210 3606935

Web: www.gbrconsulting.grEmail: [email protected]

Tourism Barometer2013 Q1

ExpectationsGreek Hospitality Sector

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GBR tourism barometer 2013 Q1