What IS Prediction?From Oracles to Athletics—and Beyond

-Preparation, Profitability, Prevention

A Quick Contest

A Brief Bit About Prediction

Oracles and Entrails?

• Many Different Divinations to Quench Man’s Hunger for Knowledge about the Future

The Legend of Tuffy

• Hit Three Home Runs on Opening Day

• Cubs’ fans had visions of a World Series Championship dancing in their heads

They Went Wild for Tuffy

• Fans and Reporters ate it all up!

• Experts say, “Tuffy to hit 486 dingers this year!”

• Fans say, “We should buy our playoff tickets today!”

Well, What Happened?

• Hit 3 more home runs all year

• Hit a total of 12 MLB Home runs

• Ended his career in the Nippon Leagues

UNSINKABLE

On Second Thought…

Sport of Kings

That’s a LOT of DataHis Father was a Mudder, but his Mother Ate too Much Fodder

Eureka!!!

What Happened!?!

A Super-Genius Can’t Fail

Shhhh! Smell That!?!

Prediction? REALLY?

Ummm…..No, Thanks.

Bertram Forer’s Test

• You have a great need for other people to like and admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you. Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. Security is one of your major goals in life.

• 80% “Accurate”

Real Predictive Analytics

Big Banks and Big Data

Nate Silver

Watson

New Security “Pre-Checked” List

HJCFF7/TSA PRECHK

Prediction? ABSOLUTELY!!!85-87 % Accurate—Even the Local Guys!

Numbers, Numbers, Everywhere

2.5 quintillion* bytes of data are created daily.

90% of data in the world today has been created in the last two years.

*25,000,000,000,000,000,000

TONS of Data

Today:

•Audits•Inspections•Observations

Tomorrow

•Gas•Telemetry•ALSS•Near-Miss Photos and Free Text

Leading Indicator

• Any Event, Behavior, Hazard or Condition that happens BEFORE someone gets hurt.

The Old Way

What do you DO with It All?

“The boss needs that safety report by 3:00. I told him you can have it for him by 1:00”

The Better Way to Use Your Data

• Turn “data” into ‘Information”

• Turn “Numbers into “Answers”

• Any Answers for Anyone

• Anytime

• Automatically

Use Leading Indicator Data to Get Healthier—Always Look Ahead to Predict and Prevent

• Automate

• Anticipate

• Analyze

• ACT

Watson

Research Partnership

Holmes

SafetyNet Aggregate Database for Predictive Analytics and Modeling

– Database info:• 130 million total observations (growing at about

1.7 million per month)• 2.5 million inspections• Over 31,000 total unique observers/inspectors

• Approx 10,000 worksites entered data in 2012…similar numbers over the last three years (total unique worksites is over 15,000)

• Nearly 4,000 data synchs with app each month

Safety Truths

1. Number of Observations

2. Number of Non-Safety Observers

3. Number of “All-Safe” Inspections

4. Number of Still Open Issues

An Event Predicted by the Model

Use Leading Indicator Data to Stay Healthy—Use SafetyNet to Predict and Prevent

• Model is 80% - 97% Accurate

• R-squared correlation measurement of .75

• Predict with Holmes

• Prevent injuries

Always Look Ahead!!!

• New Delivery Systems

• New Data Streams • New Models

– BBS– Conditions – SQP– Environmental

– Industries

Learn More After the Break

• Attend the “Red Flag” Session in Grand Ballroom B Presented by John Mavros

RESULTS

More Data Could Have Helped

• Dan thinks he is Funny

• Dan works for PSC

• PSC is owned by ISC

• ISC makes Gas Monitors

• Dan is CHEAP

• Actual Gas Monitors are a bit outside Dan’s Budget for Presentations

• You’ve seen Dan present before

Shameless Sales Guy Request

• Anyone We Can Help?

• Send email with names and numbers to:– Piper Major– pmajor@predictivesolutions.com

ISC/Predictive Solutions

• ISC Vision:To eliminate death in the workplace this century

• Predictive Solutions Vision:We save lives by predicting workplace injuries

So Everyone Can Go Home Safe, Every Day