Vision and plans for coming smart society

Kim, Seang-Tae President

National Information Society Agency

Vision and Plans for Coming smart Society

-2-

• Innovation & e-Government, • National Competitiveness & IT Policy • Foresight, Digital Convergence policy

Seang-Tae KIM [email protected]

Specialty

•  President, Inaugurated on May 19, 2008 and appointed 11th President of NIA •  Dean, Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan University •  President, Global e-Policy & e-Government Institute •  Member of Joint Evaluation Committee for Local Government, Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs •  Advisor to Presidential transition committee •  Member of Evaluation Committee, Civil Service Commission •  Chairmen of Committee of World e-Government Award and challenge •  Policy Advisor to Committee on Science, Technology, Information and Telecommunication, National Assembly •  President, National Future Policy Institute, National Future Policy Forum •  President of International Research Cooperation Facilitation Committee, Korea Research Foundation •  president of Future Politics and Governance Committee, World Future Society Forum •  Advisory board member of I-ways, Journal of E-Government\ Policy and Regulation •  Member of Committee of U-city under Prime Minister’s Office •  Member of National Informatization Strategy Committee •  President of Association of National ICT agencies •  Co-chair of Future Network 2020 Forum •  Commissioner of ITU-UNESCO Global Broadband Commission

Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift I

Smart Revolution and IT Potential II

Preparing for Future III

3

CONTENTS

Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift I

4

Social Paradigm Shift

Technology development

Co-evolution of technology and society

Change in society

•  Patriarchy •  Communities •  Traditional so

ciety

•  Capitalism •  Fordism (mass p

roduction) •  Vertical bureauc

racy

•  Post-Fordism (small quantity batch production)

•  Network organization

Information Technology

Agricultural Technology

Agricultural Society

Industrial Society

Information Society

Smart Society

? Agricultural Revolution Industrial

Revolution Information Revolution

Smart Revolution

Smart Technology

Primitive Society

5

Industrial Technology

Analysis of Global Megatrend

15 Megatrends of Future society

Based on 51 different foresight research sources produced by worldwide governments, agencies and experts (forecast of 2020 on average)

25 resources analyzed by Korean government and public/private research institutions (Presidential Council for Future and Vision, KISTEP, KISDI, SERI, LGERI, etc.)

Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Committee on Japan’s Innovation Strategy, Nomura Research Institute, etc.)

EU governments including UK, Germany and Finland, multinational companies including Shell, Siemens, etc.

US National Intelligence Council (NIC), RAND Corporation, MIT, Gartner, etc.

International organizations such as UN, World Future Society, and International Energy Agency (IEA)

Australian 2020 Summit

6

4 Keywords of Future

•  Change in population structure •  Polarization •  Network society

•  Virtual intelligence space •  Convergence of technologies •  Robots

•  Economy serving citizens’ well-being/ emotion/welfare •  Knowledge-based economy •  Emergence of global talents

•  Climate change and environmental pollution •  Energy crisis •  Increased side-effects of technology development

•  Globalization •  Increased threats to safety •  South-North unification

S

T

E

E

P

Human-orientated

Ageing Population

Risk Society

Technology Development

Keywords 15 Megatrends of Future Society

Society

Technology

Economy

Environment

Politics

7

8

Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society

“Dream Society”

Rolph Jensen (Dream Company CIO)

Daniel Pink (Futurist)

“Pro-sumer economy”

“High concept, High touch” Society where imagination and

emotions are important

Individual pro-sumers who are producers and consumers change the economic system innovatively and create ex

plosive wealth

Moving to the ‘Conceptual Age’ where creativity, emotions and intu

ition are important ※ High concept capability to create beauty and high touch capability to empathize with o

thers are required

Alvin Toffler (Futurist)

※ Elements of future talents: creativity, teamwork, motivation, stimulation,

high spirits

Lee O-Young Professor

“Age of vita capitalism” Coming of the ‘Age of vita capitalism’ where digilog system combining digital and analog systems is the key

concept

Human-oriented society with emphasis on cre

ativity

9

Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society

• Decreased tax revenue and increased spending on social security

Increased budget deficits

Keyword 2: Ageing society

Ageing

*’Ageing society’ if share of the elderly in total population is 7% or larger; ‘Aged society’ if 14% or larger; and ‘Post-aged society’ if 20% or larger

Younger Generation •  Increased burden (supporting senior

citizens, national pension, etc.) •  Increased burden on social security

Increased generational conflicts Finance Industry

Change in generational structure

Change in household consumption pattern

Reorganized industrial structure Macroeconomics

Savings rate↓ Labor force↓

Investment↓ Household income↓

Decreased economic growth rate

Ageing Korea: Population of 65 and older will reach 38.2% by 2050

※ Population of 65 and older was only 3.8% in 1980; but it is expected to reach 38.2% by 2050 with 1.4 economically active person aged 15~64 having to support 1 senior citizen (2010 Social Indicators of Korea, Statistics Korea)

* Source: LGERI

※ Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ in the 1990s was mainly caused by negative economic outlook from ageing and active consumption by citizens

Keyword 2: Ageing Society

Source: Statistics Korea (2009)

Number of economically active population (15~64) is forecasted to decrease from 2016. Age group of those in 30~40s, making up the major part of labor force, already started to decrease in number since 2006.

Source: Statistics Korea (2010)

An international credit assessment agency, S&P forecasts that the increased spending on the ageing society will increase the share of net government debt in GDP from 18.0% in 2010 to 48.0% in 2040, and even further to 137.2% in 2050. (S&P, ‘Global Ageing 2011’)

Source: Munhwa Daily (2011) 11

Warning! (Rapid budget increase

on ageing)

S&P says Korea might face the same fiscal trouble by 2050 as Greece is now in.

[Population share by age group]

65 or older

15~64

0~14

80 or older Korea’s net government debt forecast (in % in GDP)

2016 (36.19 mil)

Economically active (age 15~64)

2006 (16.75 mil)

Age 30~40s

Source: S&P

(x 10,000 persons)

Keyword 3: High-risk Society Uncertainties that Korea might face

Along with efforts to overcome the current risks, a strategy to forecast the

next 10 years or 100 years from now and change the risks to opportunities is

important

(Adapted from Urlich Beck)

Modern society is a risk society where uncertainties and risks caused by modernization influence the global environment as a whole

(Adapted from Nassim Nicholas Taleb )

Prepare for the black swan, the enormous impact of the highly improbable

§  Low birth rate and entrance into post-aged society

§  Climate change and large-scale disasters

§  Increased social conflicts and cost due to polarization, multi-culturalism, etc.

§  Foreign exchange market crisis and trade war

§  Increased price of raw materials and energy

§  Lack of jobs and unbalanced manpower supply and demand

§  Expansion of new diseases and epidemics

§  Unification and geographical uncertainties (Adapted from ‘UN State of the Future’ – 2018 Korea)

12

Source: SERI, KIET, KIEP, News Articles, A. T. Kearney Analysis

Korea is geographically located in a high-risk area where there is always possible economic risk increase due to the US-China relationship and North Korea’s nuclear threat

Increased volatility in financial markets

Stronger efforts by North Korea

to build military tension using nucle

ar weapons

Geographically higher risk in

Korea due to intensified hegemonic competition between

US and China Agitated foreign investors

Lower international credit

rating

Rising exchange rate

Falling stock price

s

Worse conditions for foreign loans and rapid cost incr

eases

Shrinking consumption from inflation

Real economy stagnation

More difficulties for the domestic industry to achieve long-term export contracts despite rising exchange rates because of foreign importers feeling more insecure

about the Korean market

Reduced market capitalization and more difficulties in raising capital

finance

Reduced FDI and lack of investment

Impediment to economic

growth

13

Keyword 3: High-risk Society

(* Source: National Institute of Meteorological Research 2010)

< Climate change in Korea with forecast>

(* Source: Bank of Korea, Hyundai Research Institute, MK Business News 2009.09)

(* Source: Hyundai Research Institute, MK Business News 2011.03)

(* 출처 : 매일경제, 2009.06) (* Source: National Police Agenc

y 2010)

< No. of brutal crimes >

Keyword 3: High-risk Society < No. of persons

with officially designated infectious diseases>

(* Source: Ministry of Health and Welfare, MK Business News,

2009.06)

< Growth rate of foreigners residing in OECD countries>

Average increase rate for 2000~2008

< Real and potential growth rate of Korea, %>

Potential

Real

Arrows represent average potential growth rate by each stage

< Nominal and real price of oil (in USD/barrel)>

Nominal price Real price

2nd Oil-shock

3rd Oil-shock

4th Oil-shock?

Germ

any N

etherlands Sw

eden Sw

itzerland Austria D

enmark

Luxembourg

Japan Finland N

orway

Hungary

UK

Slovakia Portugal Czech G

reece Italy Spain Korea

(* Source: OECD, UN, MK Business News 2010.12)

Keyword 4 : High-technology

Calculating Database Online Ubiquitous

ICT development

Intelligence

15

4 Keywords and Future Society

Ageing Population


High-risk society

Human orientated

• Manpower decrease • Tax revenue decrease • Budget deficit increase

• Increased economic, social, environmental and political risks

• Rapid increase in cost for risk management and recovery

•  Increased impact of uncertainties

• Emphasis on humanism, vita capital

• Future talents: must be creative

• Sustained smart revolution • Network improvement (mobile, social and cloud networks) • Reduced restrictions of time and place (virtual space, augmented reality) • Improvement and development toward human-like technologies

Risk Society : Cost and budget increases

People Power Society : Creating new values by adding knowledge and capacity of individuals

Paradigm Shift in Government Operation in Future society

Traditional Government-led State Management

Open government operation based o

n people power

•  Increases citizen rights and roles based on human-oriented creativity •  Achieves a low-cost and high-quality country led by creative citizens

After the worldwide financial crisis, each country is now facing a ‘budget deficit’ caused by massive government spending in the past

Korea is also bound to experience a greater deficit from the need for providing quality services for citizens in the ageing and risk society

Society of People Power

The next age of government : David cameron

Future Government: Power of People

Shift to a new government operation paradigm by providing rights to people and achieving an open government that understands demand and behavior of people

Patriarchy Communities

Traditional society

Capitalism

Fordism (mass production) Vertical bureaucracy

Post-Fordism (small quantity batch pro

duction) Network organizatio

n

Agricultural Society Industrial Society Information

Society Smart Society

(Post-Information Society)

?

20

Feudal Society Industrial Society Smart Society

Smart Revolution and IT Potential II

21

Arpanet test by US Dept. of Defense UCLA-Stanford Data Exchange (1969.10) First e-mail (Tomlinson) (1972)

WWW (1990)

First Webserver (1990) (Tim Berners-Lee)

Mosaic (1993)

(1982)

(2004) (2005) (2007)

(2010) (2009)

Netscape (1994)

(Forrester Research Internet Population Forecast(2009.7)) Worldwide Internet users 22 billion by 2013

Rapid ICT Development

22

n  Rapid expansion of mobile life regardless of social class, generation and job n  “A day starts and ends with smart phone” n  Has become a social trend (new term ‘mobile-blind’)

General Users Politicians Businessmen

Lives, works, communicates and entertains with smart phone

Publicizes policies and communicates with voters

Adopts mobile office system

•  Remote working •  Interconnection to intra-system

• All-time response to customers

• Faster decision making

President Obama is a smart phone lover

[Case of IBM] View videos

Read books

Socialize

Listen to music

Play games Monitor exe

rcise

Check traffic

Find roads

Search restaurants

Shop

l  Used smart phone to publicize his policies and collect opinions during the 2008 election

l Has been using a specially manufactured smart phone since inauguration

l  25,000 IBM workers are using smart phones for work

l  The number is expected to reach more than 100,000 by 2012

Mobile revolution through smart devices: “Internet on a chair”à “Internet on the move”

Rapid diffusion of smart phones, tablet PCs and Smart TVs

Smart Revolution: Smart Device

Source : Brian Solism

Source: Social web and future trend (Jeong Ji-hoon, Head of IT Convergence Lab, Myongji Hospital

Active two-way communication using di

verse media

Traditional media evolves to social media after going through ICT and smart device development

Used as main channel for providing public services, delivering emergency alerts and in elections

UK encouraged citizens to vote through SNS in Prime Minister Election

San Francisco Customer Service Center ‘SF311’ through which citizens can file SNS applications in cases of emergency, fire or road damage

California Online Innovation Forum

Twitter of British Monarchy

24

Smart Revolution: Media Evolution

Traditional media

Internet media

Beginning of revolution

Social web

IT Evolution Rapid change of technology features to become online, intelligent an

d converged

Change in Buying Patterns

Extension of buying trend segmented into individualization, customiz

ation, etc.

Platform Expansion Expansion from single platform, one-way communication to integrated platform

, two-way communication

Business Innovation Business value focus shifted from technology and quantity expansion to emotion and quality improveme

nt

•  Facilitation of Internet and mobile services

•  Introduction of convergence businesses

Diverse business channels

New business concepts

Improved business profit models

Value-oriented businesses

•  Facilitation of smart shopping, one-person business, cloud sourcing, etc.

•  Boom in Internet and mobile ads

•  Coming of the cross-media age

•  Active customer-oriented marketing

•  Expansion of businesses contributing to society

25

Smart Revolution: Business Innovation

Enjoys any customized service he/she wants regardless of time and place

Individual

26

Smart Revolution: Customized Services

Content & Service Integrated Plat

form

Sports facilities information

Leisure information

One-stop civil service

Job information

Cultural life information

Traffic information

Tour information 27

Policy participation

Smart Revolution: New Life Style

Smart Revolution: Future Roles of IT

IT Potential

Overcome time and space limits

Intelligence

Two-way

Network

Agility, Convergence

Create/Expand Growth Engines

Foster creative talents

Achieve smart welfare society Create new values

Manage open government

28

ICT is the main source of energy that leads the megatrend such as the economic society, creates values, and changes the social system right from the foundation

It is also the key means to actively responding to future uncertainties and risks

Introduction Growth Maturity Another leap

Dawn of Smart Revolution

Informatization 1.0 Informatization 2.0

Industrial Society Paradigm

NOW

Informatization 3.0

Information Society Paradigm

Smart Society Paradigm

New Paradigm Needed

29

Smart Revolution: Another ICT Leap

Service Infrastructure Social Infrastructure

Network Service/System Prediction Governance Law

Smart Life

Smart Biz Smart Gov

Framework of Smart Society

Preparing for Future III

31

Future Values

Opinion leaders in Korea selected “happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice and fairness’ and ‘creativity and imagination’ as new values of the future

Happiness

Sustainability

Justice & Fairness

Creativity & Imagination

Future values

An in-depth interview on ‘Future Korea’ and ‘The Roles of ICT in the Future’ was carried out with 10 opinion leaders (

NIA, 2010. 9~11)

32

Ageing Population


Risk society

Human- oriented

Sustainable Development

Growing Together Citizen Happiness

Creative Powerhouse

Future Values and New Strategies

IT

•  Smart government •  Smart work •  u-health, u-welfare

•  Smart talent •  Smart citizen •  Smart learning

•  Knowledge platform •  Smart Biz •  Green IT

•  Sharing, contribution •  Supporting SMEs (standard framework) •  One-person business

Strategy 1

Strategy 3 Strategy 4

IT-based strategies are needed to achieve such future values – ‘happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice & fairness’, and ‘creativity & imagination’

Strategy 2

33

Smart Government

Smart Work

u-health, u-welfare

Smart sharing

Standard Framework

1-person Business

Knowledge Platform

Smart Biz

Green IT Smart Talent

Smart Citizen

Smart Learning

Ageing Population

Risk Society

Human oriented

Technology Development

New Strategic Framework for Future Development

New

Values

Open

Innovation

IT-based open platform

IT-based open platform

1. National Strategy of Platform for Creative Innovation

Integration Connection

Openness Sharing

Participation Collaboration

Creation Innovation

Open platform applied to the entire society

Facilitation of ‘open innovation’ and ‘collaborative creation’

2. Platform Government for Advanced Administration

Open Innovation

Open Platform

Government/Public Sector Innovation

Agricultural Society

Industrial Society

Information Society

Smart Society

Mobilize and distribute resources

Plan and create market

Mediate and provide services

“Create values”

< Change in Government Roles >

Need for expansion of an open platform strategy in the entire administration

Platform – main source of competitiveness in the sm

art age

Open innovation Collaborative crea

tion

•  Create new services by actively using open government information •  Innovate as global platform service industries by providing creative platform

•  Create group intelligence synergies by providing and sharing new ideas based on active participation •  Communicate with government and build a framework by actively using government platform service

Government •  Transform into a platform government by expanding use of public information and government services •  Establish a highly valued platform through government engagement

Industries Citizens

What is a platform strategy?

Value-oriented ecosystem strategy that integrates diverse ideas and knowledge and produces new services by providing people the opportunities to challenge and create

Platform itself influences as group power is accumulated through the platform

3. Open Knowledge Ecosystem for New Values

Based on open contribution and sharing platform, participating organizations can practice beneficiary-oriented social contribution and sharing service by sharing information with others and facilitating collaboration

IT experts

38

4. Open Contribution: Sharing Platform

Sponsor Smart Angels Move

ment Council Relevant Organi

zations

IT businesses

IT organizations/institutions

Students

Inquiry/application of volunteer service

information

Facilitated management

backup

Provision of Statistical

information

Integration of volunteer service

information

Provision of volunteer service

management system

Provision of statistical

information

Volunteer organizations

Press/Media

Educational organizations

Central/local government

Volunteer participant information

Service user information

Volunteer service program

information

Sharing platform

Service Mentoring Ability-sharing

Rights-sharing

Teaching

Contribution and sharing platform

Key Projects

39

5. Fostering Creative Future Talents: S.M.A.R.T

A smart talent

prepares for Tomorrow

pursues Relationships

knows how to Share

is a Multiplayer

takes Actions

40

Facilitated Internet and mobile services, introduction of convergence businesses

Diversify business channels

Smart shopping, one-person business, and

facilitated cloud sourcing

Introduce new business concepts

Rapid development of Internet mobile ads, coming

of the age of cross-media

Improve business profit models

Customer-oriented marketing, expansion of businesses contributing to society

Expand value-oriented businesses

Smart Device Market Drive

n Real Time Target Marke

t Attention Get

ter

Contribute to economic growth by actively utilizing smart IT business strategy •  Actively respond to changing business trends •  Provide diverse products and services to customers

Business Role Government Role Establish foundation for businesses by supporting facilitation and preparing for adverse effects •  Support with business facilitating policies and prepare legal

means for improvement •  Actively apply smart IT business strategies to government se

rvices

Improve national competitiveness through smart businesses

6. Creating Smart Businesses

Platform based Open Innovation

Closing

Government 3.0 Smart Government

Open innovation and collaborative creation

Open knowledge ecosystem based on smart infrastructure

Smart government based on individualization, intellige

nce and platforms

Creative and Human-oriented Smart Society - Improving from an IT powerhouse to a smart country guiding the world

41

Informatization 3.0 IT-based creative

powerhouse

Open Innovation New Values

People Power

Low-cost, high-quality country

Creative citizens leading

42 26/30

Thank you!