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Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Navigating landscapes
0 20 40 60 80 100
020
4060
80100
Doing it Right
An
inte
nse
driv
e to
ach
ieve
Present
Past Future
Peers
Management Self-imposed Lacking and needed
Over the top stressful
Situation relevant to… Pressure coming from… Sense of urgency is…
Creating new process
Allocating responsibility
All about sharing failure
Fairness is about0 20 40 60 80 100
020
4060
80100
Doing it Right
Wel
l def
ined
pro
cess
es a
nd p
roce
dure
s
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
From categories to dispositions
Spee
d
Sophistication0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
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elf
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Freedom too far
Dea
dlin
es to
o fa
r
Sophistication
Spee
d
Signification diversity over time as confidence indicator
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Cynefin: making sense of the world so we can act in it
There are three basic types of system: ordered, complex and chaotic.
Complex systems have propensities and dispositions but no linear material cause
In Cynefin order is divided into ‘obvious’ & complicated and the fifth domain) disorder.
The boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is show as a cliff, or a catastrophic failure arising from complacency.
ComplicatedGoverning constraints sense-analyse-respond
Good Practice
ObviousRigid constraints
sense-categorise-respond Best Practice
ChaoticAbsence of constraints
act-sense-respond Novel Practice
ComplexEnabling constraints
probe-sense-respond Emergent Practice
1
2a
2b
3
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.
Expected signs of success
Possible signs of failure Dampening actions
Amplification actions
Oblique? Naive?
Name
Action description
Why is it coherent?
COMPLEX
DO
MA
IN A
CTI
ON
FO
RM
C
opyr
ight
© 2
013
Cog
nitiv
e E
dge.
A
ll R
ight
s R
eser
ved.
something memorable
leave blank if not leave blank if not
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Safe to fail experiments Principles
Short life cycle, three months max often shorterAny coherent idea gets an experimentThey must take place in parallelMinimum of three, maximum of sevenThey must be safe-to-fail so amplification & dampening identified up frontDon’t analyse other than to prove coherence
Portfolio (managed as such)At least one must be naive At least one must be obliqueYou can have a few high risk/high returnThere must be contradiction
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.
Research/analysis methods to be used
Experts to be consulted/deployed Justification of choice
Justification of methods
Anticipated date for results Who will review?
Name
Summary of issue/opportunity
Evidence for research or experts being able to handle this question
COMPLICATED
DO
MA
IN A
CTI
ON
FO
RM
C
opyr
ight
© 2
013
Cog
nitiv
e E
dge.
A
ll R
ight
s R
eser
ved.
something memorable
Leave blank if not used
Leave blank if not used
Leave blank if no research/analysis proposed
Leave blank if no use of experts proposed
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Basic heuristicsFor action
Finely grained objectsDistributed cognitionDisintermediation
To avoidRetrospective coherence Premature convergence Pattern entrainment
At its simplest What can I change?Where can I monitor the effect of change?Where can I amplify success or dampen failure?
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954
Like bramble bushes in a thicket
Complex Adaptive Systems are dispositional not casual in nature; modulated not driven
Enabling but not governing constraints (endoskeleton not exoskeleton)
Research and intervention are abductive not inductive (Cobra, butterfly & Hawthorn effects)
Resilience & sustainability require exaptive not adaptive evolution
Innovation as an interplay between unarticulated needs & unknown capability
Scaling requires imperfect copying and recombination not imitation
Juarrero, A (2002) “Complex Dynamic Systems and the Problem of Identity” in Emergence 4(1/2) B-104
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
24 radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task. A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case. 83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla. Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at it
“The invisible gorilla strikes again”
Drew, Vo & Wolfe Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–
1853
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954
There is no question that in virtually all circumstances in which people are doing things in order to get rewards, tangible rewards undermine intrinsic motivationAny observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes GoodhartWhen a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure Strathern
New Scientist. 9th April 2011 pp 40-43
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
From robustness to resiliencePr
obab
ility
of o
utco
me
Range of possible outcomes
Gaussian
Low Probability High impact events
Derived from material created by Max BoisotAcademy of Management Montreal 2010
10-²
10-¹
10⁰10¹10²10³
10⁴
10⁵
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Magnitude m=log₁₀(S)
N(M
=m(e
arth
quak
es/y
ear)
Pareto
✘
early detection, fast recovery &speedy exploitation
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Different approaches to understanding
Log
of e
vent
freq
uenc
y
Log of event size
Pareto world
Gaussian world
PossiblePlausible
Probable
Hypothesis/inductive Non-hypothesis/
abductive
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Scalable ethnography using human metadata
Micro narratives or observations are the basic units of sense-makingMeaning does not reside in text it is provided by human actors in contextSignificant and growing issues with Big Data & Social Media: the tyranny of herds & algorithmsAbstraction is key to interpretation, meaning making & reuseDescription opens up more possibilities than evaluationMore like these, fewer like those: intervention & advocacy
Acting intuitively, instantly
The situation was analysed logically
People made decisions based on principles
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Navigating landscapes
0 20 40 60 80 100
020
4060
80100
Doing it Right
An
inte
nse
driv
e to
ach
ieve
Present
Past Future
Peers
Management Self-imposed Lacking and needed
Over the top stressful
Situation relevant to… Pressure coming from… Sense of urgency is…
Creating new process
Allocating responsibility
All about sharing failure
Fairness is about0 20 40 60 80 100
020
4060
80100
Doing it Right
Wel
l def
ined
pro
cess
es a
nd p
roce
dure
s
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Dispositional monitoring
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Understanding nuanced differences
0 20 40 60 80
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Doing it Right
An
inte
nse
driv
e to
ach
ieve
20 40 60 80 100
020
4060
80Doing it Right
An
inte
nse
driv
e to
ach
ieve
0 20 40 60 80
020
4060
80100
Doing it Right
Wel
l def
ined
pro
cess
es a
nd p
roce
dure
s
0 20 40 60 80 100
020
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80100
Doing it Right
Wel
l def
ined
pro
cess
es a
nd p
roce
dure
s
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
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Freedom too far
Dea
dlin
es to
o fa
r
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Freedom too far
Dea
dlin
es to
o fa
r0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
2040
6080
100
Over the top stressful
Pre
ssur
e fro
m m
anag
emen
t
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
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Over the top stressful
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ssur
e fro
m m
anag
emen
t
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
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Over the top stressful
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elf
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
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Over the top stressful
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elf
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Self Imposed
An
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driv
e to
ach
ieve
0 20 40 60 80 100
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Self ImposedA
n in
tens
e dr
ive
to a
chie
ve
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015
Human sensor networks
networks for ordinary purpose that can be activated for extra-ordinary needsstimulating the generation of open source datafocus on connections on perceptual timelines not content (as that can already be handled wellFrom anticipation to anticipatory awarenessReal time decision support
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201