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UK Spectrum Policy Forum Cluster 3 Meeting – 17 September 2014 Richard Peckham, UK Space The Case for Space: The commercial, societal and macro-economic case for satellite spectrum More information at: http://www.techuk.org/about/uk-spectrum-policy-forum All rights reserved
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The Case for Space
The commercial, societal and macro-economic case for satellite spectrum
Richard PeckhamUKspace
Global Space market 2012 - US$ 305 Billion
• Strong growth of 8% per annum average over last decade
• Same pace predicted for next decade as new applications come on stream
Of which:$89B DTH TV broadcast$21B Satellite communications
Of which:$89B DTH TV broadcast$21B Satellite communications
Of which:$101B Ground stations & Equipment$5B Satellite manufacturing
Of which:$101B Ground stations & Equipment$5B Satellite manufacturing
UK Industry Momentum
Source: “Size & Health of the UK Space Industry 2011”
UK Space Agency
Joint Industry / Government “Innovation & Growth Strategy” ambition of £40bn by 2030
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year (2010 - 2030)
Turn
over
£m
ns (2
009
pric
es)
Sat Telecoms
Earth Observation & Services
Navigation & Services
Space Transportation
Space Science
Other Services
Sat Broadcasting
On track 2011£9.1bn
• Satellite telecommunications• Earth Observations and climate services• Position & timing applications & products
• Satellite broadcasting continues as the largest sector
• Security applications
2013 Space Growth Action PlanMarket analysis
Space Plane technologiesIndoor satellite navigationUltra low-cost platformsHigh resolution remote sensing from GEOLarge integrated constellations in LEOMiniaturised antennas for consumer/m2m devicesFractionated satellitesHigh altitude atmospheric platforms (HAP/HALE)In-orbit power generation & transmission
Game changing technologies& infrastructure
Game changingservices
e-Connectivity
More efficient publicsector services
Secur
ity, S
afet
y &
Resili
ence
Climate & EnvironmentalServices
Maritime geospatial services
Secure satellite communications
Galileo PRS
Polar infrastructure for shipping & exploration
Disaster & emergency response
Space robustness services
Maritime surveillanceMaritime environment monitoring
Removing space debrisSpace weatherSpace situational awareness
Multi-modal transport management
Smart cities/urban services for local govt.
Energy infrastructure services
Space tourism and small payload launchSpace planes
Low-cost LEO launch vehiclesLow cost access to space
Persistent surveillance
Power from space IGSMarkets
Insurance & finance
Agriculture & food security
Environmental services
Weather forecasting
Climate applicationsCarbon monitoring & modelling
Environmental policy
Direct to home TV
Fixed satellite broadband
e4: broadband to ships
e3: broadband to aircraft
Ubiquitous m2m
Location based services [ gaming/synthetic environments
Managing unmanned vehicles (RPVs) and hosted payloads
Seamless personal communications
Energy use monitoring & managementtransport
Backhaul (mobile, fixed, broadcast)Telemedicine & assisted living
Road transportAir traffic
Rail transport
The Space Value Chain (supply-side)
1.8
1.5
7
30
55
TELECOMMUNICATIONS EARTH OBSERVATION NAVIGATION
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.5
1.5
4.82
Satellite Manufacturing 1
<20 companies
Launch service provision 1
<10 companies
Lease or saleof satellite capacity
User ground equipments and terminals
Satellite based servicesLarge number of
companies, some global
1. Market values at space launch date 2. With meteorological-related funding (not only satellite)
7
21
<50 companies, highly concentrated
Many companies incl. consumer electronics leaders
<10 companies, highly concentrated
Few companies, often “space primes”
No commercial companies
Few companies, usually electronics and aerospace contractors
Values € bn 2007Source Euroconsult
TV and MediaLive from anywhere, direct to homeor distribution to terrestrial transmitter
GroundStations
Studio
Live sports events / outside
broadcast
Live news report from “front line”
IntelsatInmarsat
Hotbird
YOUR HOME
Satellite Position & TimePNT is now embedded in thousands of applications from mobile phones and power distribution to prisoner tagging and dementia patient tracking
GALILEO (MEO)
Global Mobile CommunicationsSatellite phones mean you can always be in contact in the middle of the desert, the ocean or the mountains
INMARSAT 4
IRIDIUM
Satellite BroadbandDirect to home, business or local hub, broadband satellites can now connect you anywhere, anytime. Millions of people in developing countries rely on satellite communications for education and medical treatment
HYLAS 1
Ka-SAT
Weather ForecastingSatellites now provide THE most important source of data for producing our weather forecasts:Wind speeds, air and surface temperatures, cloud cover, moisture content…..
3.1
15.3
13.2
9.9
5.9
7.9
20.4
24.3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Observation Impact[%]
Ob
serv
ati
on
Typ
es
Relative Contribution of Observations to NWP forecast
METOP
NOAA
OTHER LEO
GEO
AIRCRAFT
SONDE
SFC LAND
SFC SEA
Source UK Met OfficeSource UK Met Office
Impact of Satellites on Weather Forecasting
The socio-economic benefit of the Public Weather Service is estimated at ~£600M p.a.
© Crown copyright Met Office
Operations
Ground stations
Skynet 4 Skynet 5
AIRFORCE
ARMYForward HQ
ARMY
NAVY
Military CommunicationsKeeping our armed forcesconnected wherever they are
Security from Space - Food and water security - Crop monitoring, crop type detection - Natural resource prospecting - Maritime security, boarder protection
Radar Satellite
Optical Satellite
Climate Change - Monitoring - Adaption - Mitigation
High accuracy Atlantic sea surface temperature
Oct 2008 Antarctic ozone hole
Nitrogen dioxide pollution
Protection of forests against illegal logging
Sea ice thickness
Natural DisastersSpace helping to assess the damage and manage the response
Pakistan earthquakePakistan earthquakeGreek bush firesGreek bush fires
Indian Ocean tsunami before/afterIndian Ocean tsunami before/after
Tewkesbury floodsTewkesbury floods
Darfur refugee campDarfur refugee camp
?? ????
Space value chain – societal and macro economic
1.8
1.5
7
30
55
TELECOMMUNICATIONS EARTH OBSERVATION NAVIGATION
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.5
1.5
4.82
Satellite Manufacturing 1
<20 companies
Launch service provision 1
<10 companies
Lease or saleof satellite capacity
User ground equipments and terminals
Satellite based servicesLarge number of
companies, some global
1. Market values at space launch date 2. With meteorological-related funding (not only satellite)
7
21
<50 companies, highly concentrated
Many companies incl. consumer electronics leaders
<10 companies, highly concentrated
Few companies, often “space primes”
No commercial companies
Few companies, usually electronics and aerospace contractors
Values € bn 2007Source Euroconsult
User and societal benefits, both qualitative and
quantitative
Very large but hard to quantify as applications are so diverse
OECD Socio-economic impact assessment“The Space Economy at a Glance” – OECD 2011•Presents a methodology for assessment•Confirms the diversity of applications makes it near impossible•Proposes a number of case studies and is continuing evaluation of some
• Precision agriculture• Climate change• Fisheries• Transport• Education• Weather forecasting
•All can be shown to be multi £billions
New commercial activities (new
products and services)
New commercial activities (new
products and services)
Productivity/efficiency gains in diverse
economic sectors
Productivity/efficiency gains in diverse
economic sectors
National/regional economic growthNational/regional economic growth
Cost avoidanceCost avoidance
- Indirect industrial effects- New mass market products
& services- New products outside the
space sector
- E.g. precision farming, fisheries and transport
- Indirect impact on the economy derived from the enduring presence of the space industry
- E.g. costs avoided and lives saved thanks to flood prediction
Enduring Impacts
Thank you