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Monthly hotel forecasts for key UK and German markets. New reports launched as result of predictive intelligence collaboration between e-forecasting.com and HotStats. Hotel market forecasts highlights for April for following markets: Berlin, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Liverpool, London, Manchester, Munich, Newcastle, Provincial UK and Total UK.
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UK & German Monthly Hotel Market Forecast May Highlights
Presented byE-forecasting.com & HotStats
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7/30/2013
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Monthly Hotel Forecasts
Launched in June 2013, e−forecasting.com released market Monthly Hotel Forecasts of key UK and German markets using HotStats historical data
More markets in Europe and MENA to follow in the coming months
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Current Forecast Markets
Berlin Birmingham Bristol Cardiff Frankfurt Glasgow Liverpool London Manchester Munich Newcastle Provincial UK Total UK
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4Monthly Hotel Forecast
Reports Historic hotel market data from powerful HotStats database 24 month forecast, 8 quarters out, 2 years out Key metrics: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Proprietary hotel metrics:
– HIP - hotel industry pulse– HIL - hotel industry leading indicator– FTLI – foreign travel leading indicator– Monthly GDP
Additional econometric insights:– Labor market conditions– Inflation– Exchange and interest rates– Energy prices– Special events
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5UK Hotel Market Forecast
May Report Highlights
UK countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 1.9% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 2.2%
Monetary policy: no policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold
Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar and British
Pound mixed
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6UK Hotel Market Forecast
May Data Highlights UK HIP – up 3.1% UK HIL – up 0.1% Probability of upcoming recession: 30.9% UK Monthly GDP – up 0.1% UK FTLI up 0.2% Consumer prices up 2.7% Unemployment rate at 7.8% Consumer confidence up Business executives less optimistic Builders showing lower expectations
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UK Hotel Forecast Highlights
Market 2014 RevPAR Forecast
2015 RevPAR Forecast
Birmingham (0.8%) 2.5%
Bristol 0.1% 1.8%
Cardiff 2% 2.2%
Glasgow (0.6%) (2.9%)
Liverpool 4.8% 3.2%
London (2.2%) (3.1%)
Manchester (1.4%) 0.4%
Newcastle 7.8% 3.7%
Provincial UK 0.1% (0.1%)
Total UK (2.5%) (0.4%)
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8German Hotel Market Forecast
May Report Highlights
German countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 1.7%
Monetary policy: no policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold
Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar and Euro
mixed
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9German Hotel Market Forecast
May Data Highlights German HIP – flat German HIL – up 0.1% Probability of upcoming recession: 23.4% German Monthly GDP – flat German FTLI up 0.2% Consumer prices up 1.5% Unemployment rate at 5.3% Consumer confidence up Business executives less optimistic Builders showing lower expectations
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10German Hotel ForecastMay Report Highlights
Market 2014 RevPAR Forecast
2015 RevPAR Forecast
Berlin (9.7%) (0.1%)
Frankfurt (4.5%) 0.4%
Munich (13%) 2%
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For More Information
Monthly hotel forecast highlights were taken from the June issue of Monthly Hotel Forecasts, please visit:– http://www.e-forecasting.com or email
[email protected] for subscription rates and queries on additional markets
