Twelve Heuristics for Solving Tough Problems—Faster and Better

Heuristics for Better Problem Solving V1.0 © Catalysis Group, Inc. 2013 Slide

Heuristics for Better Problem Solving

Tips for Effective Problem Solving in the Real World

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Workshop Objectives

! Practice problem definition! Explore improved problem solving methods! Examine and apply heuristics (tactics) to

enhance the problem solving process! Have fun while accomplishing other objectives

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What’s in this for YOU?

After this workshop you should be able to…" Define problems with greater insight" Generate a wider variety of solutions" Improve problem solving through increased

awareness, tactics, & tools

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Exercise #1

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Tactics

Tactics are rules or methods which help us apply knowledge to achieve a goal

" Bricks are for building (Contextual Knowledge)" Bricks are heavy (Attribute Knowledge)" Uses for heavy things? (Analogy Tactic)" Generalize search for uses by examining other

attributes such as color, size, shape, hardness, and composition (Attribute Knowledge + Analogy Tactic)

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Exercise #2

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Overview/Agenda

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We are here

Verify

Identify

Select

Selfware

Intro

Close


Problem Solving in Action (Demo)

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! False starts are expected! Be suspicious of “obvious” solutions! Errors are OK! Uncertainty is guaranteed! Expect ambiguity! Confusion happens! Sometimes things get silly


Critical Aspects of Problem Solving

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Safety is important

Tactics - Procedures for finding and implementing ways to achieve particular near-term goals

Knowledge - Facts, truths, and principles gained through experience or study

Selfware - Individual beliefs, dispositions and “thinking” resources


Problem Solving Ability Model

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Tactics X Knowledge X Selfware = Ability


Tactics

Self

ware Kn

owled

ge

Tactics

Self

ware

Know

ledge

Foundation: Abilities are Malleable

Increasing one or more of these factors results in increased ability…

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Tactics X Knowledge X Selfware = Ability


What is a “Problem”?

“A difference between things as desired and things as perceived."

- D. Gause & G. Weinberg

Desired Perceived

CurrentState

Difference12


Dimensions of Problems

Problems can be span many dimensions: time-sensitivity, risk, complexity, criticality, domain expertise…

These dimensions determine:" How time & resources are invested in the problem

solving process" How much specialized knowledge is needed to

effectively solve the problem

All problems benefit from conscious evaluation

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Examples of Problems “In the Raw”

! My neighbor is too noisy

! Customers are complaining about quality

! Our budget is insufficient to meet goals

! System response time is unacceptable

! The building is on fire

! We aren’t managing our projects well

! The stock crash wiped out my retirement

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Exercise: Identify Sample Problems

On a 3 x 5 card identify three candidate problems that you find interesting

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What Does it Mean to “Solve” a Problem?

If a problem is “A difference between things as desired and things as perceived”

…then solving a problem requires:1. Reducing or eliminating the difference2. Changing what is desired3. Changing what is perceived

orSome combination of these

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Sample Solutions (Quick, Dirty & Unfiltered)

My neighbor is too noisy…" Wear ear plugs" Convince your neighbor to be quieter" Learn to appreciate the sounds" Soundproof your house" Make noise so you can’t hear your

neighbor" Soundproof your neighbor’s house" Move (or convince your neighbor to

move)" Learn to tolerate the noise

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Problem Solving: Selfware

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We are here

Verify

Identify

Select

Selfware

Intro

Close


What is “Selfware”?

! Your “Thinking Resources”

! Your attitudes

! Your beliefs about intelligence

! Metacognition - Your personal problem solving manager

Selfware impacts your problem solving ability & can be leveraged to increase effectiveness

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Intelligence: “Malleable” or “Fixed”?

Belief that intelligence is “Malleable” ...you are born with a potential that can be developedPerformance on a task gives you information on that

specific task and whether you need to apply more effort or new strategies

Belief that intelligence is “Fixed”...you are born with specific amount & cannot change itPerformance on a task is a measure of what you were

born with

FixedMalleable ?20


Consequences of Belief

! Meaning of Challenge and Failure! Perception of Effort and Persistence! Perception of Learning Opportunities

Studies show that adopting a belief in the malleability of intelligence can lead to

improved performance

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Problem Solving: Verify Problem Definition

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We are here

Verify

Identify

Select

Selfware

Intro

Close


• Perceived State• Desired State• Difference

• Quantified Difference• Problem Boundaries• Root Cause(s)• Problem Model• Assumptions• Data Collected to Date• Multiple Representations• Defined Solution Criteria• Solution Constraints

Problem Definition: How Extensive?

More D

etailed

Driven By:! Time Available! Problem Complexity! Problem Severity! Risk! Team Size! Investment! Sensitivity to Error! Value of an Audit Trail! Common Sense

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Data Question

When you get information other than by direct observation, remember the Data Question:

“What did you observe that makes you believe that?”

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Perceptions of the Current State

First step in verification is gathering data about the perceived current state:" Whose perception of the current state initiated

problem solving?" What data is available to substantiate perceptions

of the current state?" Where was the current state observed?" When did the observations occur?" What are the suspected causes?" Is there a history of this problem?" Who is affected by the problem?

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Problems with Perception

Perceptions are a tricky blend of what we…" Observe" Believe we observed" Infer from observations

"Seeing is believing” - But what we observe & believe we observe have equal weight in

our minds

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Exercise: Perception Quiz - What is This?

What might this be a picture of? Write your answers on a sheet of paper… you have one minute.

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Clarifying the Desired State

! What are the “musts” and “wants” of the desired state?

! How will we know when the desired state is reached?

! What evidence would demonstrate that the desired state has been attained?

Make target quantifiable/measurable

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Basic Problem Definition

Basis for subsequent problem solving: " Assures common understanding of problem" Based upon analysis to date" A statement of the perceived & desired states

Perceived State: Customer complaints concerning product increased 25% in fiscal year 2010 for same volume of product shipped (500 complaints received per 100,000 units shipped).

Desired State: Customer complaint rates return to pre-2010 rates, using 2009 as the baseline rate of comparison (400 complaints received per 100,000 units shipped).

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Exercise: Basic Problem Definition

Select a problem from your three candidates & write up a basic definition:! What is the perceived state?

" Whose perception?! What is the desired state?

" Whose desire?! What is the difference between them?

" Who cares about the difference?

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Pause & Reflect

! Was the problem “analyzed away”?" Gain agreement from stakeholder(s), document

results & stop! Is further definition/analysis needed?! Have we identified multiple problems?" Do they have a common cause or should they be

addressed individually?" If possible, isolate a single target problem" Identify problems that will NOT be addressed during

this iteration of process31


Verifying the Problem Definition

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VerifyDefinition

DefineProblem

DefinitionInsufficient

Problem Confirmed

LostInterest

Continue

STOP


Too BroadToo

Narrow

Challenges to Effective Problem Verification

" Problem definitions that identify solutions" Mistaking perceptions for data" Blaming & judging" Failure to consider all impacted constituencies" Inadequate data analysis" Failure to identify root cause(s)" Mistaking assumptions for truths" Constituencies with vested interests

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Problem Solving: Identify Possible Solutions

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We are here

Verify

Identify

Select

Selfware

Intro

Close


Creativity is Natural…

…Just watch children at play. Creativity can be stifled by:" Schools teaching “traditional” approaches" Peers who pressure us to conform" Organizations that feel threatened by change" People who tell us not to be silly

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Factors that Foster Creativity

! Recognize that everyone has creative abilities and exercising them is not a test

! Spend more time with creative people and with people who value your creativity

! Be curious and explore other knowledge domains looking for unique solutions to interesting problems

! Be playful, laugh ! Be comfortable and engaged

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! Being too perfectionist! Falling into ruts or routines (always doing the

same things in the same way)! Avoiding problem solving activities! Devaluing your own ideas! Rushing to judgment! Fearing mistakes! Being too serious


Factors that Inhibit Creativity

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Creativity Considerations

! Creativity is important, but everything you know is NOT wrong -- bring your knowledge and experience too

! Write down assumptions you identify! Be open to new information (may send

you back to Verify step)! Be open to the creativity of others! Don’t dismiss ideas prematurely! Experiment

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! A common cause of failure is premature termination of the search for solutions

! People are more willing to wrestle with challenges & ambiguity when engaged

! Use all time allocated to solution generation (even after finding a good one)

! Keep focused - expect chaos & hang on


Ambition is the path to success. Persistence is the vehicle you arrive in. - Bill Bradley

Engagement & Persistence

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Heuristics for Generating Solutions

What follows is a collection of heuristics for generating solutions

Be on the lookout for some you already use & new ones to add to your kit (a key skill is acquiring & applying new heuristics)

Heuristic - A procedure (sometimes) helpful for arriving at a solution -- from Greek heuriskin,

meaning “serving to discover”

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24 Problem Solving Heuristics

1. Random Search/Trial & Error2. Divide & Conquer3. Means-End Analysis4. Working Backwards5. Analogy & Metaphor6. Perceptual Reorganization7. Brainstorming8. Split/Half Method9. Simplification10. Inventory/Reframe Resources11. Micro/Macro Context Shift12. Detour Solutions

13. Opposite Thinking14. Contradictions15. Review the Rules16. Look for Patterns17. Get Help18. Review Models19. Test Assumptions20. Change Attributes21. Reframe to Reduce Resistance22. Shift the Problem23. Change Perception24. Change Desires

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1. Random Search/Trial & Error

Random search may work if you have few alternatives.

Systematic trial and error is better (less likely to re-try solutions that failed previously)

! Applicable when problem is well defined and has few alternatives" Which key on ring opens door?" Anagrams

! These approaches are less effective as the number of possible solutions goes up

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2. Divide & Conquer

Some problems are amenable to layering or partitioning into component problems. Sub-problem selection & sequence should consider:" Opportunities for mid-course correction" Opportunities for learning about situation" Investment required and risks anticipated" Effects on other parts of the problem" Efficiency relieving problem symptoms

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Divide & Conquer - Decryption Example

D O N A L D+ G E R A L D R O B E R TEach letter stands for a unique digit 0 through 9All you know is that D = 5Can you decode the other letters?

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Example: Data Organization Tool

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9ABD XEGLNORT

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3. Means-Ends Analysis

! Divide the distance between the current state and the desired state into one or more intermediate desired states

! Identify a solution to reach one or more intermediate states

! Means-Ends analysis is generally intended to deal with complex problems in which a comprehensive strategy is difficult to envision at the outset

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Lilly Pad Puzzle

Water lilies on a certain lake double on the surface area every 24 hours.

From the time the first water lily appears until the lake is completely covered takes 60 days.

On what day is the lake 1/2 covered?

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4. Working Backwards

Imagine the desired state and work backward toward the current state

Sometimes a combination of working forward and working backward is helpful

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5. Analogy & Metaphor

Analogy Process" Recognition" Abstraction" Mapping

Analogy Types" Direct - compare to other

systems" Symbolic - create alternative

maps" Personal - Imagine yourself as

a participant in the process

“Analogies make the strange familiar and the familiar strange” - William Gordon

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6. Perceptual Reorganization

! Restructure the problem to see it in a new way and facilitate seeing new solutions

! Perceptual reorganization is a way to break mental sets or predispositions to respond in fixed ways

! Allow yourself to reorganize your perceptions of a problem sometimes makes solutions easier to find

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Perceptual Reorganization - Puzzle/Demo

Fred has 1 x 1 tile in his back yard. He wants to replace it with 1 x 2 tiles.

The current pattern takes 40 tiles, so he buys 20 of the 1 x 2 tiles.

He can’t figure out how to make them fit without cutting one… can you?

21 19

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Perceptual Reorganization - Puzzle/Demo

How can we calculate the area of the parallelogram below?

4

2

a

a

bba = 3

b = √5

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7. Brainstorming

! Problem solver is encouraged to think up imaginative, unconventional & even silly possible solutions

! Suspend judgments or evaluations! Capture ideas in writing! The goal is quantity of ideas

“The best way to have good ideas is to have lots of ideas.” -

Linus Pauling53


8. Split-Half Method (Binary Search)

Useful approach when there is a set of sequentially organized possible solutions to consider & no hint about suitability

Choose a point midway between current end points and test

If not correct, iterate with new end point

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9. Simplification

Are there special or boundary cases that make the problem complex? Can they be defined away?

Are there simple solutions to part of the problem? Is the remainder of the problem worth the extra effort

Can anything be added to the problem or changed to eliminate the special case?

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10. Inventory & Reframe Available Resources

What resources are available to you?" People" Equipment" Materials" Facilities" Money" Authority

Could they be used in other ways?

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11. Micro/Macro Context Shift (Scale Up/Down)

Probing extremes frequently provides insights into problem boundaries, side effects & implications" What if we made it bigger/smaller?" What if we made it faster/slower?" What if traffic increased/decreased?" What if there were only one customer?" What if we increased/decreased quality?

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Hobbits & Orcs Puzzle

Under an uneasy truce, three hobbits and three orcs are traveling together. They come to a river crossing that has a single 2 person canoe. If at any time the number of orcs on one side of the river is greater than the number of hobbits, the minority hobbits will be eaten. Can you determine how they might all get across the river safely using the canoe?

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12. Detour Solutions

Detour Solutions apply to problems in which the path to the goal is indirect. Sometimes to make progress toward an ultimate goal, you must move away from the goal in the short term

Example: someone seeking wealth discovers that a likely path is to go into debt to finance necessary education

Detour solutions are sometimes counterintuitive

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13. Opposite Thinking

Opposite thinking can break perceptual blocks and sometimes uncover systemic remedies to problems" How could we make the problem worse?" How could we add risk and complexity?" How could we speed up the problem?

This will sometimes supply interesting ideas that can address the problem or uncover balancing forces

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14. Contradictions

The perfect solution to a problem may have contradictory properties. Are there aspects of the problem or potential solutions that are contradictory?

Look for leverage and innovation at contradiction points" Look for trade offs" Look for compromise" Look for innovation (TRIZ)

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15. Review the Rules

Are you being constrained by any rules that might be suspended for this problem?

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16. Look for Patterns

Are there patterns to the symptoms?" Time" Space" Correlated events" People" Other events or processes?

Can the problem be safely replicated to look for patterns?

How might the patterns suggest solutions?

There it goes again - failing when the

255th user logs in…

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17. Get Help

Can someone else be enlisted to help you generate ideas or solve the problem?" Expert" Peer" Novice" Fool" Imaginary Person" Book or other reference" Other

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18. Review Models

Check models of the problem that you built in verification for intervention clues:" Force field analysis - decrease resistance?" Pareto - more efficient solutions?" Cause/effect diagram - alternative solutions?" Flow chart or process flow - needless complexity?" System diagrams - leveraged intervention?

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Force Field Analysis: ExampleCurrent State Desired State

Forces That Help (Driving Forces)

Forces that Hinder(Restraining Forces)

25% Skilled employee attrition rate last year (previously 10%)

Attrition rate 10% or less for skilled employees

New performance standards

Benefits cut by 50%

Elimination of bonuses

Pay 10% belowindustry standard

Flex time instituted

Telecommuting implemented

Monthly roundtables w/mgmt

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19. Test Assumptions

In theory, you have not been constrained by assumptions - in practice, assumptions can be very compelling

Review assumption list & look for solutions prematurely eliminated or missed by treating assumptions as facts or constraints

Imagine the impact of changing assumptions

Assumptions ≠ Facts67


20. Change Attributes

Are there attributes of the situation that can be changed to observe the effect?" Parts?" Location/geography?" Timing?" Environment?" Individuals involved?" Suppliers?

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21. Reframe to Reduce Resistance

Is there a way to change attributes or perception of a problem or solution to overcome resistance? Examples:" Tom Sawyer’s whitewashed fence" Wolf in sheep’s clothing" Trojan Horse" Camouflage" Sweet medicine

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22. Shift the Problem

Can the problem be shifted to make it someone else’s problem?

Can the problem be shifted to a different place in the system where it is cheaper or easier to detect or correct?

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23. Change Perception

Problem solving was initiated because of perceptions - is there a way to change the perception?

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24. Change Desire

Is the desire subject to change?

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(Bonus!) Combine Strategies

! Creative people use combinations of solution generating heuristics

! Learn how/when to combine strategies and which ones to use

! Helpful when one strategy offers a partial solution

“Make it a practice to keep on the lookout for novel and interesting ideas that others have used successfully”

- Edison

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Review of Identify Step

! Use a variety of methods! Don’t stop with the first possible solution,

generate several! Give permission to play & make mistakes! Make notes… some ideas have merit on

reflection! Grow your heuristic set by dabbling in other

knowledge areas

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Problem Solving: Select Possible Solution

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Verify

Identify

Select

Selfware

Intro

Close

We are here


Rules of Thumb for Good Solutions

A good solution is feasible and wholly or partially remedies the problem. Among options, favor solutions that:" Are simple to implement & maintain" Introduce minimum new complexity" Produce minimal negative consequences" Allow a phased implementation" Are least expensive to implement" Can be implemented quickly" Present the lowest risk" Provide opportunities to learn if they fail

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When a Solution is “Good Enough”

The best can be the enemy of the good -- particularly if we are being perfectionists or holding out for an ideal solution" Failure to make a timely decision often

becomes a passive decision to fail." Real world decisions are frequently

based on satisficing -- and that’s ok

All decisions benefit from systematic evaluation

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General Evaluation Questions

! What are the advantages/disadvantages?! How well are solution criteria addressed?! How likely is the solution to succeed

(workability, complexity, commitment)?! What are the consequences (pro/con)?! How long will it take to implement?! How risky?! How costly?

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! Establish rules for deciding on a solution ! Consider all information emerging from evaluation! Select the solution and document the decision or

recommendation


Reaching a Decision

Review your process and results with an outsider - They may see biases or assumptions you do not

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An Exercise

! The number series {2, 4, 6} conforms to a simple rule

! You must identify the rule by coming up with your own series of numbers.

! I’ll tell you whether your series complies with the rule

! You can give me as many series as needed! Tell me when you think you know the rule and I

will verify your result

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Challenges to Evaluation & Selection

! Failure to seek disconfirming evidence! Hidden bias! Overconfidence! Availability heuristic! Representativeness heuristic! Entrapment or sunk cost! Psychological reactance! Mindlessness! Failure to evaluate consequences

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Review of Select Step

! Rules of thumb for good solutions! When a solution is “good enough”! General evaluation questions! Reaching a decision! Communicating & confirming the decision! Challenges to evaluation & selection

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Summary & Close

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We are here

Verify

Identify

Select

Selfware

Intro

Close


Workshop Objectives

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! Practice problem definition! Explore improved problem solving methods! Examine and apply heuristics (tactics) to

enhance the problem solving process! Have fun while accomplishing other objectives


What’s in this for YOU?

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After this workshop you should be able to…" Define problems with greater insight" Generate a wider variety of solutions" Better evaluate & select among solutions" Improve problem solving through increased

awareness, tactics, & tools


Exercise: Insights/Progress?

Spend a minute reflecting on the problems that you listed on the 3x5 card earlier today: • Did you make progress on a

problem?• Did you get any ideas that you

might try?•What is one useful idea that you

picked up today?

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The Next Steps are Up to YOU

! You can choose to be a better problem solver! There are tactics and tools waiting to be

discovered and mastered! Give yourself permission to:

" Analyze the problem before you proceed " Make mistakes" Apply the process" Ask for help" Try something different

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Thank You

! We appreciate your participation in our Workshop! We hope that you found the results worth the

investment of your time! We ask you to please take a moment and provide

feedback regarding your experience! As you apply these skills in the future, please call with

questions or ideas

Catalysis Group (916) 929-3629

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Twelve Heuristics for Solving Tough Problems—Faster and Better