Transition Management for Sustainabilityand the role of cities

Dr. Derk LoorbachLCSRnet, Yokohama, 22-07-2013

Dr. Derk LoorbachLCSRnet, Yokohama, 22-07-2013

DRIFT• Dutch Research Institute For Transitions, Rotterdam

with 18 employees

• Established 2004 as part of the national transition research program KSI

• Action research institute; (international) fundamental and applied research, consultancy, academic/postgraduate education

• STRN: 600+ members globally

SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS?

Persistent unsustainability

• Current socio-economic systems are inherently unsustainable– Economically, ecologically and socially

• Incremental improvement is not enough and CO2 is only one of the problems– Sub-optimization might make things worse

• Current crises are symptoms of non-linear systemic shifts happening– We need to consider these as windows of opportunity for

major change towards sustainability

Symptoms of destabilisation

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Transitions

Long-term (one or two generations) fundamental Long-term (one or two generations) fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system

– culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms orientation), paradigms

– structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective institutions, rules, regulations, collective routinesroutines

– practices:practices: behaviour, operation, implementationbehaviour, operation, implementation

Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and socio-economic systemssocio-economic systems

Paradigm to analyse and influence complex societal changeParadigm to analyse and influence complex societal change

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes

Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices

Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Transition phases

predevelopmenttipping phase

reconfiguration

stabilisation

Based on Rotmans et al, 2001

Sustainable Society?

enhanced lock-in

decline

Time

Japanese energy transition?

Regime:High energy consumptionCheap prices

Nuclear and imported fossil

Landscape

Climate

change/polici

es

Resouce iss

ues

Demography

Economic

change

Niches: alt. Technologies, new practices and regulations (feed-in),

new business

?

Sustainability and Transitions

• Transitions are rare but common processes and most likely do not automatically lead to sustainability

• Sustainability itself is inherently ambiguous, contested and uncertain

• It is about the process of sustainable development rather than the end goal

GOVERNANCE OF TRANSITIONS

Transition governance principles

• long-term long-term thinking as the basis for short term policythinking as the basis for short term policy

• thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-different levels (multi-level)level)

• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)

• orient governance towards system innovation orient governance towards system innovation besides system improvementbesides system improvement

• keeping options open, exploring multiple pathwayskeeping options open, exploring multiple pathways

• selective participation focusing on frontrunnersselective participation focusing on frontrunners

Transition Governance Framework

Monitoring, evaluating

and learning

Institutional and

structural changes,

new networks/ coalitions

Breakthrough actions, projects and initiatives,

new organisations

Problem structuring, shared sense of urgency,

guiding visions

Transitions…

Are not…

•Manageable

•Makeable

•Engineerable

•Predictable

Can be…

•Anticipated

•Influenced

•Guided

•Accelerated

society

Transition arenasRegular arenas

- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented

- Long term- Frontrunners - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching

Transition arenas

Transition Management Framework

Monitoring, evaluating

and learning

Developing images

coalitions and

transition-agendas

Mobilizing actors and executing projects and

experiments

establishment of transition arenas, shared problem definitions and

visions

Transition

Networks

Transition Experime

nts

Transition

Arena

Phase IIIFraming the transition

Phase IVEnvisioning a

sustainable city

Phase VReconnecting long

term & short term

Phase VI

Going into action

Transition Team

Phase ISetting the

scene

Phase IIExploring dynamics

Phase VII

Engaging & anchoring

Tools

SCENE patterns actor analysisproblem analysis

TRANSCEreflexive

monitoring

monitoringframeworktrans. indicators

MLP

DBUDeepening, broadening, upscaling

transitioning

actor selection

expert-arena

system analysis

arena

agendaexperiments

evaluation

TM multiple participatory tools

URBAN TRANSITIONS

Aberdeen

Ghent

Montreuil

Rotterdam

Ludwigsburg

Mitigation in Urban Areas, Solutions for Innovative Cities

5 local governments search for pathways to a low carbon future

Supported by two knowledge institutions: CRP Henri Tudor (LUX), DRIFT (NL)

• Ghent, great place to live

• Locally creating added value

• Energetic city, intelligent cycles

• Ghentenaar home in the city

Transition arena Ghent (Belgium)

20 cultural organizations

> 100.000 visitors

TransitionUniversity

Ghent

Researchbiogas from

biodegr.

Mobility arena

938 mobbers

Support for SMEs

Climate arena Ghent (Belgium)

Inspiration to political parties

CWG Urban Farming

CWG Energy Efficiency in business

CWG Valorisation waste water and biodegradablesCWG Art Sector

KWG mobiliteit

CWG consumer pusher market

KWG UGent

Assessment of

potential for

ESCO’s

CEIP meets GMS

OUTLOOK

New dynamics – new agenda

• Structural changes taking place requiring new strategies

• Scientific: understanding tipping points, selection, institutional change, …

• Societal: mobilising critical mass, destabilising unsustainable regimes, building new institutions

Transition governance principles (acceleration)

• Coordination accelerating transition dynamics

• Guiding build-up towards sustainability

• ‘Controlled’ break-down

• Safe-guarding diversity and flexibility

• Dealing with/anticipating resistance and barriers

• Leading roles for transformative business, policy, research citizens, networks

Tools TM 2.0tipping point

ethics

transitionpotential

community engagement

communiciation& discourse

financing (e.g. joint purchase)

empowerment

coalition building

business cases

cost-benefit

system analysis

arena

agendaexperiments

evaluation

TM

power analysis

institutionalization

power strategy

social movement

The need for global transition governance

• Current progress is insufficient to meet global goals– Institutional and technological approaches do not deliver the space

and guidance for acceleration

• There is a need for more progressive, socio-economic and frontrunner oriented governance strategies– There are many positive initiatives and solutions but they do not

scale up

• The transition framework helps to enable research and governance for transitions but requires new roles– Challenge is always to adapt TM to context, this requires skill,

knowledge and competence

Transition in roles

Transition Manageme

nt

Thank you for your attention

For more information and publications:loorbach@drift.eur.nlwww.drift.eur.nlwww.transitionsnetwork.orgwww.twitter.com/drk75