The Andean tropical mountains and the Climate Change

Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 16 June 2012

Regional context

Climate change contextClimate in the Andes• Complex climate system with extreme natural gradients in temperature

and precipitation• Dominated by climate systems over Pacific Ocean, Amazon and Caribbean• Altitudinal gradients (temperature)• N-S and E-W gradients (precipitation)• Seasonality more pronounced in south• Lack of information on current climate conditions Future predictions• Overall, temperature increase rainfall, seasonality uncertain

Regions where >80% of models coincide in direction of change of precipitation

Buytaert & Julián Ramírez-Villegas in press

Impacts of climate change

• Biomes – vertical shifts (higher biomes only loose, lower ones loose and gain)

GCr Par PnH PnX BMs BMsd Arb PrP

Región A2.1039

Are

a(Km

2 )

01

00

20

03

00

PérdidaEstableGanancia

Tovar et al. in press PNAS

Impacts of climate change

• Water availability (how much and when) Local variation – changes in water availability due to changes in rainfall seasonality

and regulatory capacity of ecosystems and glaciers Influence of glaciers:

- In the north, paramos most important factor for water regulation throughout year- Glaciers (and puna) more important in the Central Andes for maintaining water production during the dry seasons, e.g. maintaining grazing systems

Climate change effects exacerbated (or surpassed?) by land use change, poor governance, inadequate policies, insufficient infrastructure, inefficient use and recycling of water

Relative change (%) in water availability for combined impacts (temp + rainfall) under climate change (Buytaert et al 2010)

Other drivers of change

• Often difficult to distinguish between effects of different drivers (e.g. changes in land use and climate change in terms of water regulation) Combined effects Integral, flexible

policies

Photo: J. Voss

Other drivers of change in the Andes

Population growth Especially in urban areas % in urban areas in Andean

countries

2010: 69% to 91%

1990: 55% to 87%

▪ Mountain cities - higher population density

▪ Lowland population (e.g. Lima) on Pacific coast depend on Andes for water

▪ Concentration of demand for water in high Andean cities (e.g. Bogota, Quito, La Paz)

CIESIN, 2011

0 - 499

500 - 1499

1500 - 2499

2500 - 3499

>= 3500

0.0E+00 2.0E+07 4.0E+07 6.0E+07 8.0E+07

Andean countries urban area pop. by altitude

Other drivers of change in the Andes

Change in land cover and use▪ Agricultural expansion (e.g.

influenced by bilateral trade agreements)

▪ Upward shift in agriculture (due to more suitable areas at higher altitudes)

▪ Increase in agricultural area and harvest (agro-chemicals, lowland especially, but water from Andes)

▪ Land degradation – loss of capacity for water regulation 1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

ProductionArea harvestedFertilizer useAgro-chemical use

Pro

duct

ion

(ton

nes)

/ A

rea

harv

este

d (h

a)

Other drivers of change in the Andes

Change in land cover and use

Mining (expansion, continued reliance of economic systems on extractive industries)

Deforestation, ecosystem degradation

South America: largest net loss of forest 1990-2010 (FAO 2010)

Decrease from 38% to 35% of forested area lost 1990 - 2010

Cuesta et al 2009

Key policy actions• Protect mountain ecosystems to safeguard water supplies

e.g. Paramos, puna, legal protection, mining no-go zones, basin-wide responsibility for strengthening upstream-down-stream partnerships

• Climate change adaptation addressed specifically for mountainsregional, national and local policies with flexible approaches (adaptive management) given uncertainty, further develop water management policies

• Innovate agricultural production in mountain areasrecuperate knowledge (especially of native products), work towards food security, protection of biodiversity with responsible agriculture, market access

• Transform current mining methods with responsible mining codespolicy formulation, push for more efficient use of mining products

Key policy actions• Effective communication mechanisms within government

i.e. between government departments (with overlapping jurisdictions); between government levels (local and national)

• Use regional cooperation mechanisms to share and replicate experiencese.g. where decentralization and increased citizens’ participation has been beneficial to sustainable mountain development

• Improve coordination/communication to ensure knowledge generated is applied to SMDe.g. between state universities in mountain areas, research NGOs, government bodies

• Implement decision support systems at local and regional levelse.g. for water management and climate change adaptation

Creating

joint solutions

from our diversity

using our knowledge

in harmony with the environment

condesan@condesan.orghttp://www.condesan.org

Thank you