Wednesday, January 07, 2009

THE AGRICULTURAL

GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY (AGRODEP)

MODELING CONSORTIUM

T. Ngaido, O. Badiane, M. Torrero, and A. Bouet

International Food Policy Research Institute

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2

• POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• GROWING DEMAND FOR ANALYTICAL CAPACITY

• THE AGRODEP CONCEPT

• MODELING STRUCTURE

• GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE

OUTLINE

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3

POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• GLOBALIZATION: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RESPONSES

• RECENT GROWTH RECOVERY: STRATEGIC LESSONS

• CAADP: KNOWLEDGE CONTENT AND REQUIREMENTS

• 6% GROWTH TARGET: GROWTH OPTIONS AND POVERTY IMPACTS

• 10 % BUDGET: PE TRACKING AND EFFICIENCY

• POLICY RENEWAL: PEER REVIEW, BENCHMARKING, AND LEARNING

• AFRICA FACES NEW CHALLENGES INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE,

ENERGY CRISIS, AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4

GROWING DEMAND FOR ANALYTICAL CAPACITY

• LINKING UP WITH GLOBAL MODELS• BETTER REPRESENTATION AND CUSTOMIZATION OF AFRICA

• CREATING CRITICAL MASS OF SKILLS• ACQUISITION AND UPGRADING OF MODELING TOOLS

• ENHANCING DATA AVAILABILITY• LINK UP AND ADD VALUE TO DIFFERENT DATASETS

• COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS• CONNECTING RESEARCHING

• USING EXISTING SKILLS

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5

THE AGRODEP CONCEPT

• SPONSORSHIP

• MODELING STRUCTURE AND TOOLS

• DATA INFRASTRUCTURE

• MEMBERSHIP, NETWORKING, PARTNERSHIP

• COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCE

MODELING STRUCTURE

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SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

OVERALL AGRODEP MODELING STRUCTURE

• OPERATE AS A COORDINATION MECHANISM, BUILDING UPON

EXISTING INSTITUTIONS AND NETWORKS

• INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING KEY COMPONENTS:– A) A SHARED MODELING INFRASTRUCTURE

– B) A COMMON DISTRIBUTED DATABASE

– C) A NETWORK OF EXPERTS

– D) A COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

A Shared Modeling Infrastructure

• CONSOLIDATED CORE OF EXISTING MODELS DEALING WITH

SECTOR, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUES AND LONG

TERM PROJECTIONS

• POTENTIAL POINT OF DEPARTURE: A SET OF MODELS USED

AND/OR ELABORATED AT IFPRI: - MIRAGE MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMY (MULTI-COUNTRY MULTI-SECTOR

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL),

- IFPRI SINGLE-COUNTRY COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

ELABORATED BY LOFGREN, HARRIS AND ROBINSON (LHR),

- IMPACT MODEL (MULTI-SECTOR PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL DEVOTED TO

ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS DEALING WITH LONG

TERM PROJECTIONS)

• OTHER MODELS CAN BE INCLUDED IN THIS LIST VERY SOON: THE

GTAP MODEL, THE EMM MODEL.

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

A COMMON DISTRIBUTED DATABASE

• CONSTITUTION OF A NEW GIANT DATABASE WOULD BE A VERY

RISKY AND COSTLY PROJECT

• BETTER TO LINK EXISTING KEY DATA SOURCES, COMPLEMENT IF

NECESSARY AND DEVELOP SHARED STANDARDS, FORMATS, AND

EXCHANGE PROTOCOLS

• A FIRST SET OF DATABASES CAN INCLUDE: - SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIXES AND HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS AVAILABLE AT

IFPRI,

- GTAP DATABASE ON MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS,

- MACMAP DATABASE ON MARKET ACCESS,

- CEPII DATABASES ON TRADE (BACI), GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS (CHELEM -

CEPII)…

- DATA ON AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

A NETWORK OF EXPERTS

• CONSORTIUM WOULD BUILD ON EXISTING AFRICAN

ORGANIZATIONS (ASARECA, CORAF, FANRPAN…) AS WELL AS

LEADING UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH ENTITIES (PRIVATE AND

PUBLIC)

• ALSO LINK UP WITH OTHER LEADING CENTERS OF EXPERTISE, – CG CENTERS,

– RESEARCH CENTERS IN EUROPE (CEPII, LEI…),

– UNIVERSITIES IN NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE (PURDUE UNIVERSITY, LAVAL

UNIVERSITY, PARIS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS…)

– OTHER GLOBAL MODELING CONSORTIA: GTAP, PEP.

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

A COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS

A SET OF SPECIFIC STAKEHOLDERS AND INTEREST GROUPS WOULD

BE ESTABLISHED…

• TECHNICAL EXCHANGE;

• TRAINING AND CAPACITY BUILDING;

• STRATEGIC POLICY DEBATE.

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

A PROPOSED MODELING ARCHITECTURE

GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE

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SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

PROGRAM GOVERNANCE AND COORDINATION

CLEAR MECHANISM FOR GOVERNANCE, COUNSEL, AND INTER-INSTITUTIONAL COORDINATION

• STEERING COMMITTEE (MADE UP OF KEY AFRICAN PARTNERS) DECIDES AND GUIDES ON KEY MATTERS OF POLICY, PLANNING AND RESOURCE MOBILIZATION

• SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY BOARD PROVIDES INPUT TO TECHNICAL ISSUES (SCIENTIFIC PARTNERS)

• PROGRAM COORDINATORS HANDLE DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONAL MATTERS, INCLUDING PROGRAM COORDINATION, PROJECT DEVELOPMENT, PREPARATION AND IMPLEMENTATION, AND FIELDING JOINT MISSIONS TO SUPERVISE ON-GOING OPERATIONS

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

PROGRAM STRUCTURE

15

STEERING

COMMITTEE

SCIENTIFIC

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BOARD

PROGRAM

COORDINATORS

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SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

PROGRAM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION:

COUNTRY-SPECIFIC PROGRAMS

• COUNTRIES (COUNTRY MODELING CHAMPIONS) IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT AND EXTENSIVE CONSULTATION WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO FOSTER COUNTRY BUY-IN AND OWNERSHIP

• MORE EMPHASIS ON BUILDING CAPACITY TO PLAN AND IMPLEMENT NEEDED DATA AND USE AND BE ABLE TO MODIFY STARTING MINIMUM MODELING TOOLS

• BUILDING ON THE EXISTING CAPACITY – START FROM THE WEAKEST LINK AND MOVE ON TO OTHERS

• INTERACTION OF PRODUCERS (SUPPLIERS) AND USERS (CLIENTS) OF DATA INCREASES LONG-TERM VIABILITY OF THE PROGRAM

• PROMOTE “CULTURE OF STATISTICS” AND DEMOCRATIZATION OF DATA ACCESS (OPEN DATA ACCESS POLICY – PRE-CONDITIONS FOR PARTICIPATION IN AGRODEP

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

PROGRAM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION:

REGIONAL TRAINING, WORKSHOPS AND DATA BANK

• REGIONAL WORKSHOPS/SEMINARS (AGRODEP LED)• LEARN THE LATEST TECHNIQUES FROM WORLD EXPERTS

• SHARE AND DISSEMINATE BEST PRACTICES

• EXCELLENT VENUE FOR PEER LEARNING, NETWORKING AND ORGANIZING HORIZONTAL COOPERATION

• REGIONAL TRAINING PROGRAM COURSES (AGRODEP LED)• A STRUCTURED KNOWLEDGE BUILDING ON STARTING MODELING TOOLS. THIS

MINIMUM CORE OF MODELING TOOLS COULD INCREASE OVER TIME

• REGIONAL DATA BANK• NEEDED VALUE ADDED FOR DATA USERS BY INTRODUCING STANDARDIZED DATA

LABELING AND VERY DETAIL DOCUMENTATION OF DATA SETS

• DATA ACCESS AND DISSEMINATION MADE EASY

• CERTIFICATION ROLE OF AGRODEP

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 18

Data Dissemination Toolkit

Websites

CD-ROMs, DVDs

On-line analysis

Data

documentation

XML metadata

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Next steps

• DAKAR WORKSHOP

• PARTICIPANTS: 37

• INSTITUTIONS• IFPRI, CIRAD, UNECA, CORAF, LAVAL University, CRES, ISRA, Institute Hassan II,

FAO, University of the Free state, University of Pretoria, University of Nairobi, Universite

Catholique de Louvain, CMA/WCA, IRD, University of Ghana, CIRAD, CEPII, Center for

World Food studies, ASARECA, GTAP

• Countries• USA, France, Ethiopia, Senegal, Canada, Senegal, Senegal, Morocco, Italy

• South Africa, South Africa, Kenya, Belgium, Senegal, Ghana, France, France,

Netherlands, Uganda, USA

• WORKSHOP REPORTS (JANUARY)

• PROPOSAL DEVELOPMENT (FEBRUARY)

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