The 2030 Communities Campaign - Doug Farr

The 2030 Communities Campaign:

The 2030 Communities Campaign:A convenient remedy

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Living More, DrivingLessA Nation of Neighborhoods

Planning to Drive Less

1A Country of Corridors

A Convenient Remedy


Living More, Driving Less



This presents an enormous opportunity to retrofitexisting automobile-dependent communities andbuild new sustainable corridors.

By age 25 the average American has spent one year in a car.



By age 25 the average American has spent one year in a car.



No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4” person)

Source: CDC Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults (BRFSS, 2005)

30% of American adults are obese.



“Over the next fewdecades, lifeexpectancy for theaverage Americancould decline by asmuch as 5 yearsunless aggressiveefforts are made toslow rising rates ofobesity”

National Institutes of Health Report



At a time of rising gas prices, many communities arecompletely dependent on cars to meet daily needs.



Each year the average US family drives nearly around the Earth

8,150 milesper capitaper year

21,500 milesper familyper year

US. Vehicle Miles Traveled - Year 2000



2000 U.S. VMT: 2,700,000,000,000 MilesOne Light Year: 5,800,000,000,000 Miles2025: 1st Year U.S. will drive a light year



Roughly 40,000 Americans are killed each year inautomobile accidents. A reduction in miles traveled couldresult in a proportionate reduction in death rates.



A Nation of Neighborhoods



Neighborhoods are designed for walking. They supporta high quality of life and offer individuals and familieschoices in mobility, housing, shopping, work and play.



Neighborhoods vary across the urban-rural transect.These include the hamlet, village, small town, andurban neighborhood.

Images: VictorDover



We believe that all Americans including the100,000,000 new US citizens we anticipate by 2050,should live in neighborhoods.



This presents an enormous opportunity to rethink andredevelop existing sprawling communities and buildthousands of new sustainable neighborhoods.



A Country of Corridors



We also believe that the neighborhoods and districtswhere people live and work need to be part of atransit corridor.



This presents an enormous opportunity to rethinkexisting sprawling communities to add transit and tobuild hundreds of new sustainable corridors.






Per capita VMT willincrease 5% w/ > CAFEstandards

Average dwelling sizegrew 60% from 1970 -2005

The current climate change dialogue focuses on technological efficiency



7 of 15 policy “wedges” must be met to limit temp. increase to 20C

Climate Change “Wedges”

Source:Socolow and Pacala, Sept. 2006



Sustainable urbanism makes progress toward 7 separate wedges



Two key Climate Change “Wedges”

#3 A 25% reduction in

building electrical use.

#2 A 50% reduction in

Vehicle Miles Traveled.



2030 Architecture Challenge



2030 Architecture Challenge

The energy efficiency increases reduction standardfor all new buildings shall be increased to:

60% in 201070% in 201580% in 202090% in 2025Carbon-neutral in 2030



Farr Associates building portfolio demonstrates that the 2030standard is achievable but requires heroic dedication to overcome anunsupportive sometimes hostile regulatory and funding environment

BethelCommercial Center

CorporateHeadquarters

Courtyard House

Yannell (Zero Net) House

50% over code(2003)

55% over code(2007)

71% over code(2006)

120% over code(2009)



The transportation energy used to get to and from a buildingcan exceed the energy used in and by the building



1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

The Devaluation of Urbanism and Architecture

YEAR

Per Capita VMT: History and 2030 Targets

ANNUALPERCAPITAVEHICLEMILESTRVL’D

9000

10,000



Starting in 2010, a sustained 2.5% annual reduction in VMT per year,would result in:

12.5% reduction by 201525.0% reduction by 202037.5% reduction by 202550.0% reduction by 2030

The 2030 Community ChallengePlanning Transport & Land Use to Lower Per Capita VMT



Is it feasible to meet this standard?



Atlantic Station Atlanta, GA

Residents of Atlantic Station drive 75% less than the Atlanta average



Reducing Motorized Travel in Portland (OR)

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Population

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Source: Norman Garrick



Transit

MAX Light Rail - 1981 Portland Streetcar - 2000

Tram - 2006


Reducing Motorized Travel in Portland (OR)



Cyclists per Day Bikeway Miles

1991 2007

Reducing Motorized Travel in Portland (OR)Walking and Biking

http://www.streetsblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/portland_bike_counts.jpg




Reducing Motorized Travel in Portland (OR)Land use Planning and Urban Design

Transit Oriented Developments

Downtown Revitalization

Contain Sprawl



The 2030 Communities Campaign: 36The 2030 Communities Campaign:

Mode Shift in Cambridge, MA 1990 - 2006

Cars/Carpool

PT+Walk+Bike




Would this standard be “convenient”?



The US. Climate Change Mayors/Cities Agreed to meetthe Kyoto Protocol which calls for a reduction of 5.2%of greenhouse gases compared to the year 1990*.

The Climate Change Cities are not meeting thesetargets in large part due to a hostile regulatory andtransportation funding environment.

(*Note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010without the Protocol, this limitation represents a 29% cut).



Current Federal Transit Funding

Highways and Roads 80%Transit 17%Bike, etc. 3%Land Use Planning 0%Development Controls 0%

Source: Shelley Poticha



Manufacturing Traffic

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3

5

7

9

11

13

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Vehicle Miles Traveled in the USA

USA Population




The Dismal Science: Creating Traffic

Years

Traffic Volume

Road Widened

Actual Traffic

Predicted Traffic

Induced Traffic

Funding for new roads is often justified by long term projections thatVMT will increase, a self-fulfilling prophesy once the road is built.




Current Transportation Funding Criteria

Among the criteria for awarding construction fundsto build new roads is a demonstrated or projectedincrease in VMT.



How would the 2030 CommunitiesCampaign help the average American?



National Resilience

The upcoming Transportation Bill T-4 could be based onthe need to plan and invest for a future with less driving.This would not concern whether and how muchindividuals drive but would lower the risk of futurecatastrophic national threats due to the high cost of gas.



Resilient Regions

Funding could be found for regional plans to plan for afuture with reduced driving due to higher gas prices. The50% VMT reduction could be a specific goal of each plan.



Resilient Communities

Funding could be found for comprehensive plans to planfor a future with reduced driving due to higher gas prices.The 50% VMT reduction could be a specific goal of eachplan.



Think “War Room”

“It’s the placemaking, stupid.”



Thank You

A Convenient Remedy

Technology

The 2030 Communities Campaign - Doug Farr