Ten Dominant Trends In Technology 2008 Fall 2008 Version

(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

Ten Trends in TechnologyThat Will Shape How We Plan and

Execute Beyond 2008


A Humbling but Short History of Futurology… 1899: “Everything that can be invented has been

invented.” – Charles Duell, U.S. Commissioner of Patents

1900: “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now.” – Lord Kelvin

1905: “E=mc2”

1923: “There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom.” – Nobel Prize-winning physicist Robert Millikan

1923: “Who wants to hear actors talk?” – Harry Warner


A Humbling but Short History of Futurology… 1943: “The future market for computers is about five

or six.” – Thomas Watson, Sr.

1965: “The concept is interesting and well formed. But in order to earn better than a ‘C’, the idea must be feasible.” – Long forgotten Yale professor

1968: “I am a HAL 9000 computer, production number three. I became operational at the HAL plant in Urbana Illinois on January 12th 1997"

1972: “There’s no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” – Ken Olson


We must remember that… “It’s tough to make predictions,

especially about the future.”Yogi Berra


Our theme for today:

INNOVATION…Technology will cause

“game-changing” behaviors in our business or personal lives.


Why do we obsess over innovation?

“Every day we are saying, ‘How can we keep this customer happy?’ How can we get ahead in

innovation by doing this? Because if we don’t, somebody

else will.”– Bill Gates


But then again…

“You can observe a lot just by watching...”

Yogi Berra


So Here Come Ten Trends That Will Shape

2008 & Beyond…

…And their impact on how you lead

managework and

compete…


1. The GROWING SCOPE of the INTERNET

Source: Charles Giancarlo, San Francisco Chronicle, 12/14/06

In three years, 20 typical California households will generate as much traffic as the entire Internet did in 1995.


Every week 12MM people join the Internet, most from outside the USA. Unintended consequences of the Internet’s

expansion: Big media transformation Birth of the long tail Social networking Democratization of content Power to the artist Disrupted distribution




22% of the world population now Internet enabled – June 30th, 2008

WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS

World Regions Population( 2008 Est.)

Internet UsersDec/31, 2000

Internet Usage,

Latest Data

% Population( Penetration )

Usage% of

World

Usage Growth

2000-2008

Africa 955,206,348 4,514,400 51,065,630 5.3 % 3.5 % 1,031.2 %

Asia 3,776,181,949 114,304,000 578,538,257 15.3 % 39.5 % 406.1 %

Europe 800,401,065 105,096,093 384,633,765 48.1 % 26.3 % 266.0 %

Middle East 197,090,443 3,284,800 41,939,200 21.3 % 2.9 % 1,176.8 %

North America 337,167,248 108,096,800 248,241,969 73.6 % 17.0 % 129.6 %

Latin America/Caribbean 576,091,673 18,068,919 139,009,209 24.1 % 9.5 % 669.3 %

Oceania / Australia 33,981,562 7,620,480 20,204,331 59.5 % 1.4 % 165.1 %

WORLD TOTAL 6,676,120,288 360,985,492 1,463,632,361 21.9 % 100.0 % 305.5 %


Users on the Internet by REGION


Users on the Internet 6/30/08 by LANGUAGE


Penetration Percentage of the Internet by REGION


1. The GROWING SCOPE of the INTERNET156,000,000 hostnames, 66,000,000 are active

Total Sites Across All Domains August 1995 - December 2007



How can your enterprise capture at least its share

of this expanding marketplace?


2. The Paradise of CHOICE Consumer PULL, much less producer PUSH End of the “hit-driven” economy in TV, music, movies, books TIME and PLACE SHIFTING (TIVO, SlingBox) We are leaving the “information age” and entering the “Age

of Recommendation” 69% of consumers research products online 62% look at online peer review 39% compare price across outlets Using engines such as PriceGrabber, TripAdvisor, Shopping.com Drives prices down, democratizes search…

Leads to accelerated product innovation: Want it NOW! IP-TV, Podcast network: empowering smaller players.


2. The Paradise of CHOICE

What is your company doing to respond to this

new empowerment of the purchaser?


3. The AUDIENCE is the NETWORK Democratization of production, distribution and search:

“Make it”, “Get it out there”, and “Help me find it” Make it: PC music, Wikipedia, iMovie: The power of peer

production grows exponentially Get it out there: Lulu, MySpace, CraigsList, YouTube, eBay,

Amazon Stores Electronic distribution: finally bits not atoms.

Move the inventory way IN (central warehouse) or to the edge (eBay, Amazon retailers) or way gone (iTunes)

Anyone can Sell (Amazon stores, eBay, CraigsList) Anyone can publish (peer production: LuLu, YouTube, MySpace,

WikiPedia) Anyone can help me find it (search): The Wisdom of Crowds:

TripAdvisor shopping bots, niche search engines.


3. The AUDIENCE is the NETWORK

How are you tapping into this game-changing marketing opportunity?


4. Increasing Computer Power Drives Changes In Human Behavior

From emphasis upon productivity over last 25 years… To changing the way we

share experiences Communicate preserve memories access entertainment learn, and use health care

Distribution of innovation to resources around the world. In the U.S. economy alone up to 12% of all labor activity could be

distributed and networked, from legal to administrative to restructuring of R&D.

Cloud computing and “on demand” software (SAAS)


4. Increasing Computer Power Drives Changes In Human Behavior

What products or services could you add that you could

not deliver ‘yesterday’?


5. “I AM THE OFFICE” – Mobile Computing Changes Our Lives

Information and communications available everywhere. Apple’s iPhone interface will start a revolution in usable

mobile computing devices. Video-conferencing becoming a reality Japan is the first country to see a reduction in PC purchases

year over year – in favor of mobile devices… More than ½ of the people on the planet have cell phones- up

from 12% in 2000 (U.N. Telecoms study) Unified communications “I have an OFFICE in my pocket.”


5. “I AM THE OFFICE” – Mobile Computing Changes Our Lives

Have you and your company taken

advantage of mobilityas a corporate

strategy?

CES Show ’08: 2,700 companies, 140,000 attendees, 140 countries

“Connected digital home” and “HD video” main trends. Digital TV’s now in 56% of U.S. homes – Dec 2007


6. Consumer Electronics Spending Dominated by HDTV, Convergence


6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)

250 MM computers were sold in 2007. Intel is working on 10x performance at 1/10 the power.

Over a BB transistors on a chip now shipping. Gaming leads with US software sales of $7.8B in 2008.

Video games exceeded US box office receipts for first time in 2005.

SINGLE CHIP CPU+VIDEO NVIDIA is Forbes’ company of the year

NVIDIA RENDERING OF FACEfor video game. 754 M transistorsIn G-Force 8800 GTS (up from63 M in 2002)



Wireless electric charging of CE devices and... Wireless power itself.

110 volts, 30 amps through the air



The “Digital home” entertainment servers centralize content acquisition and storage.

HDTV’s connected to Media center PC’s will triple again in 2008. Gaming devices, downloaded movies and seamless entertainment



IP-TVs and WIFI phones are real and growing segment. Devices will be driven by voice, gesture and.. Keyboard. OLED thin, bright display devices. Fold or roll ‘em.

Readius OLED rollupScreen device.

Toshiba OLED 1.5” wide HDTV

Fujitsu fabric PC - OLED


6. Consumer Electronics Trends

What is your company doing to exceed the expectations of your newly-sophisticated

consumers?


7. WEB 2.0 Enters the Mainstream


7. WEB 2.0 Enters the Mainstream Young people entering workforce will drive wide

deployment through the enterprise. More effective way to communicate. Businesses must adapt. Facebook as a platform: 55 MM users. May 24th, 2007

launch of open API. Already over 18,000 applications. Parallel to Internet browser as a container for applications. One million new users each week, fastest growing group over 35.

MySpace (falling from favor quickly). New open code… Platforms to watch: LinkedIn, Facebook, Orkut. Tools: Ning and Nexo to build your own.


7. WEB 2.0 Enters the Mainstream

How can you better communicate with your stakeholders using new

tools and channels?


8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search Web 3.0: The Semantic or “natural language” Web:

Attach meta-data to information stored on the Web Like a rich card catalog on top of online content Turns the web into a relational database Make search and unstructured data more accessible Try www.powerset.com for an early example



8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search Web 4.0: The Ubiquitous Web: Connecting intelligence

into a network of smart markets, natural language agents and more. Agents that know and reason as humans do.


8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search

Web 1.0 – Web 4.0: From Nova Spivak, Radar Networks & Mills Davis, Project 10x


8. WEB 3.0 - Way, Way Beyond Search

Does your marketing message evoke

‘meaning’, not just ‘words’?


9. EVERYTHING TURNS GREEN Energy demand will grow 57% by 2030 US petroleum consumption will continue to rise from 17M

barrels/day in 1973, to 20M in 2006, and to 25M in 2030. We have a “perfect storm” for innovation in energy today:

Energy price, volatility, global awareness & climate change Every week 12MM people join the Internet, most from outside

the USA.. So… Energy required to power the Internet doubles every 5 years. 35% of all energy in the home now drives computers and TV. 1/3 of all homes got rid of a CE device in 2007 – half in perfect

working order. 7% trashed. 9% recycled. 67% resold/gifted. 20% donated.

Greening I.T.: Minimize energy use; Reduce CO2 emissions; and minimize electronic waste.


9. EVERYTHING TURNS GREEN

What initiatives has your company undertaken to ensure the betterment of our environment?


10. The CIO becomes a Business Strategist An important member of senior team - determining how to invest

capital more effectively to reduce costs, improve productivity and achieve corporate objectives.

Process Improvement, not system build-out, will be Job #1 Division between I.T and operations will diminish, and Emphasis on mining vast amounts of corp. data will increase Enterprise applications will start losing their luster in favor of SaaS,

mashups, “On Demand” computing. IT will reluctantly embrace Web 2.0 CIOs will turn IT into a operational line organization, not just

guardians and protectors of the network.


10. The CIO becomes a Business Strategist

How are you adapting to this new reality? What can you do to improve your positioning in the

enterprise?


Futurology Revisited (Have we learned anything?)

In 2002 “10 Trends”… 2009: Electronic banking replaces most cash 2010: Holistic health care widespread 2011: Translation software replaces most foreign

language teaching 2012: Organic farming boom cuts pesticide use by

one-half 2013: Half of all household waste recycled 2015: Manufacturing jobs sink to 10% of all U.S. work 2018: Half of all goods will be sold on-line…


“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

Yogi Berra

But then again…


“It may be your sole purpose in life to serve as a warning to others.”

Anonymous

And…