Geothermal Energy Generation - Technology Market Penetration and

Roadmapping (TI)

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Research OutlineResearch MethodologyKey Findings

1. Technology Snapshot and Trends

Technology Capability Technology Value Chain

2. Impact Assessment & Analysis

Market Impact of Key InnovationsImpact of Technology / Business Accelerators Impact of Technology / Business Challenges

3. Diffusion of Innovations and Needs

Assessment

Technology Adoption Demand Side Analysis

4. Opportunity Evaluation and Roadmapping

Scenario Modelling & Emerging Opportunities Technology Impact Analysis Technology Management Strategies

Key Patents and Contact Details

Appendix

About Frost & Sullivan

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Geothermal resources can deliver clean and sustainable energy that could act as a base-load supplying power plant (just like coal fired or nuclear power plants). In addition geothermal energy is renewable and unlimited (or almost unlimited) source of electricity and heat.

This research service offers insights on the roadmap and penetration prospects of geothermal energy generation related technologies , and recommendations for stakeholders to enhance their penetration in the market.

This report provides:

• Brief snapshot of the technology; Key benefits or strengths

• Impact of key innovations and developments

• An overview of key drivers and challenges

• Region-wise technology adoption and demand-side analysis

• Technology Roadmap – By Adoption Prospects – Evaluated using multi-criteria decision making tool (MCDM) called as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) that analyzes the adoption / penetration of geothermal energy generation technologies

• Evaluation of emerging opportunities and management strategies for stakeholders of geothermal energy generation sector

Research Outline

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Research Methodology

Step 1: To provide a thorough analysis of each topic, Technical Insights’ analysts perform a review of patents to become familiar with the major developers and commercial participants and their processes.

Step 2: Building on the patent search, the analysts review abstracts to identify key scientific and technical papers that provide insights into key industry participants and the technical processes on which they work.

Step 3: The analysts then create a detailed questionnaire with content created to address the research objectives of the study, which functions as a guide during the interview process. While the analysts use structured questionnaires to guarantee coverage of all the desired issues, they also conduct interviews in a conversational style. This approach results in a more thorough exchange of views with the respondents, and offers greater insight into the relevant issues than more structured interviews may provide.

Step 4: The analysts conduct primary research with key industry participants and technology developers to obtain the required content. Interviews are completed with sources located throughout the world, in universities, national laboratories, governmental and regulatory bodies, trade associations, and end-user companies, among other key organizations. Our analysts contact the major commercial participants to find out about the advantages and disadvantages of processes and the drivers and challenges behind technologies and applications. Our analysts talk to the principal developers, researchers, engineers, business developers, analysts, strategic planners, and marketing experts, among other professionals.

Step 5: The project management and research team reviews and analyses the research data that are gathered and adds its recommendations to the draft of the final study. Having conducted both published studies and custom proprietary research covering many types of new and emerging technology activities as well as worldwide industry analysis, the management and research team adds its perspective and experience to provide an accurate, timely analysis. The analysts then prepare written final research services for each project and sometimes present key findings in analyst briefings to clients.

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Key Findings

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Utilization of novel geothermal systems will play an important role in the future of geothermal energy technology

Utilization of novel geothermal systems will play an important role in the future of geothermal energy technology

Exploration and utilization of novel geothermal reservoirs has the potential to significantly expand todays geothermal energy market

Exploration and utilization of novel geothermal reservoirs has the potential to significantly expand todays geothermal energy market

Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) based analysis, reveals that hydrothermal spallation drilling technology would have the greatest impact in the industry in the future. Although Enhanced Geothermal Systems will play important role in the geothermal industry in another 5-7 years time frame. The hydrothermal spallation drilling obtained a preference value of 26%, against Fluid Hammer Drilling (15%), Plasma Drilling (9%), EGS (19%), LiDAR Exploration (15%) and Magnetotelluric Surveys (16%).

Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) based analysis, reveals that hydrothermal spallation drilling technology would have the greatest impact in the industry in the future. Although Enhanced Geothermal Systems will play important role in the geothermal industry in another 5-7 years time frame. The hydrothermal spallation drilling obtained a preference value of 26%, against Fluid Hammer Drilling (15%), Plasma Drilling (9%), EGS (19%), LiDAR Exploration (15%) and Magnetotelluric Surveys (16%).

11 Pure-Play developers, utilities and IPPs, technical consultants, exploration companies/technologies, drilling companies/technologies, equipment suppliers and EPC contractors have been recognized as key stakeholders of geothermal technology value chain

Pure-Play developers, utilities and IPPs, technical consultants, exploration companies/technologies, drilling companies/technologies, equipment suppliers and EPC contractors have been recognized as key stakeholders of geothermal technology value chain

33The highest potential for improvements is in exploration and drilling technologies The highest potential for improvements is in exploration and drilling technologies

22 Geothermal reservoir exploration methods together with drilling technologies have big influence on overall geothermal project cost

Geothermal reservoir exploration methods together with drilling technologies have big influence on overall geothermal project cost

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Geothermal Systems – SegmentsTechnology Capability (1/5)

GEOTHERMALSYSTEMS

-SEGMENTS

GEOTHERMALSYSTEMS

-SEGMENTS

Normal and low heat-flow areas

Sedimentary basin heat accumu-lation

Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS)

Volcanic geothermal system

Convection dominated systems

Deep drilling into naturally frac-tured formations

Geothermal energy is a clean and renewable energy extracted from the earth. This energy can be harvested from geothermal systems which are confined to the upper crust where local geological conditions create a heat-flow to the surface which is significantly higher than the global mean value ~ 80mW/m2.

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Geothermal Reservoir Hot SpotsTechnology Capability (2/5)

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Impact of Business Accelerators/Drivers (1/2)

Base load renewable

energy generation Market expansion

possibility

Green energy source

Low and stable cost of operation

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Impact of Business Challenges (1/2)

Big initial risk Technical Resource Crunch

Long delivery time

High initial investment

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Facilitates in lowering drilling costs

Risk Mitigation

Increasing Durability

New Technology

Increasing Exploration Accuracy

Reducing GHG emissions

Decreasing Time and

Cost

EPC contractors are taking most of risk on their shoulders

It is especially important for project developers

Will help in decreasing risk

Important for exploration and utilization of deep supercritical or EGS geothermal resources

Demand Side Analysis

Important from utilities point of view

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Technology Market Impact Analysis - Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Tree

Initial Cost

Cost

Tech

nolo

gy Im

pact A

naly

sis ( 5-7

years tim

elin

e)

Maintenance Cost

Current Market Potential

Future Market Potential

Time to Market

Durability

Flexibility

Equipment Compatibility

Risk Limitation

Time Savings

Hydrothermal Spallation Drilling

Fluid Hamer Drilling

PlasmaDrilling

LiDAR Exploration

EGS

Magnetotelluric Surveys

Technology Capability

Market PenetrationProspects

Level 0 Criteria Level 1 Criteria

Alternatives

Ability to Create New Opportunities

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Technology Management Strategies

Governments have started supporting geothermal projects. This trend will accelerate in the future due to the technology’s ability to deliver base load in continuously in a sustainable and safe way

Government Support Strategy

Companies active on geothermal industry very often cooperates (financial support) with universities for developing new solutions

Universities - Corporations

Cooperation Strategy

Solution providers can concentrate more on R&D activities pertaining to drilling and exploration

R & D Strategy

EPC contractors are those who connect various technologies (companies) together (based on geothermal reservoir properties/type) with the aim of successfully beginning and finishing the geothermal project

Project Managing

Technology Management

Strategies