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Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy

Dr Mark Diesendorf

Institute of Environmental StudiesUNSW

m.diesendorf@unsw.edu.au

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Arctic Ice Cap Shrinking: Summer Minima

19791979 20032003

2007 ice cap is much smaller than 2003

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Permafrost is melting …

Permafrost: any rock or soil remaining at or below 0°C for two or more years..

Siberian permafrost: “a frozen peat bog”.

Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is bubbling out

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Global Warming is Accelerating

Melting of Arctic ice reduces reflection of sunlight and amplifies warming

Melting of permafrost releases methane and CO2 which amplify warming

Global warming increases water vapour in atmosphere which amplifies warming

Global warming warms soils which release more CO2 which amplifies warming

Global warming increases prevalence and intensity of wild fires which release CO2 which amplifies warming

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Targets Needed for Long- and Short-Term

Long-term: 80% reduction compared with 1990 level by 2050

Short-term: 30% reduction compared with 1990 level by 2020

Therefore, strong policies and actions needed nownow to implement especially those technologies that can reduce emissions beforebefore 2020

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Australia recognises that there is a problem

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Federal Government’s Main ‘Solution’:Coal Power with Capture & Burial of CO2

May not be commerciallyavailable before 2025 (MIT, 2007)

Risks of escape of buried gas

Will cost more than wind power and bioenergy from crop residues • Necessary and cheaper at NW

Shelf gas fields

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‘Clean’ Coal is Misleading ‘Spin’

• Air and water pollution

• Health hazards to coal miners

• Land degradation

• Risks of CO2 escape

It still has:

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Federal Govt’s Back-up ‘Solution’: Nuclear Power

Proliferation of nuclear weapons

Superb terrorist target

Rare but devastating accidents

Still no long-term dump for high-level nuclear wastes

More expensive than wind power and some bioelectricity

Chernobyl

Technology of 1970s, still has all the old problems:

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Is Nuclear Power part of the Greenhouse Solution?

Too slow to build, so it’s not a short-term solution

Emits increasing amounts of CO2 as uranium ore grade decreases, so it’s not a long-term solution

Therefore, based on existing technologies, nuclear power is a dead-end alley, a diversion from genuine action.

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It’s not a choice between coal and nuclear!

XX‘Clean’ coal could not make a significant

contribution before 2025

Nuclear could not make a significant contribution before 2022Both are dirty and dangerous technologies

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Sustainable Energy Future for Australiabased energy efficiency, renewable energy and natural gas (the cleanest fossil fuel) during the

transition

The Genuine Solution

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Wind, Albany, WAWind, Albany, WA

Christie Walk, AdelaideChristie Walk, Adelaide

BioenergyBioenergy, Rocky Point, , Rocky Point, QldQld

SUSTAINABLE SUSTAINABLE ENERGYENERGY

Energy efficiencyWindBiomassSolar, Geothermal

Concentrated solar

PV

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Energy Efficiency: Residential, Commercial, IndustrialCheapest and Fastest Technologies

Solar efficient design in new buildings & retrofits

Insulation of buildings

Efficient heating & cooling

Efficient appliances, equipment & lighting

Solar hot water with efficient shower heads & taps

Christie Walk, Adelaide City

e.g. Residential

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Solar Hot Water

• Solar-gas has lowest GHG emissions and highest price

• Solar-electric hot water, gas hot water and electric heat pump have next lowest emissions

• Potential savings in NSW: 1500–3000 MW of coal power, 9–18 Mt per year of CO2

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CO2 Emissions from Stationary Energy, Australia, 1990–2040

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Mt/a

CO

2 eq

uiv.

Energy Efficiency

Renewable and gas fired generation

BaselineBaseline

BaselineBaselinewith mediumwith medium

efficiencyefficiency

Clean Clean EnergyEnergyFutureFuture

50% reduction50% reductionin COin CO22 emissionsemissions

The time path is a notional one, based on the assumption that poThe time path is a notional one, based on the assumption that policy recommendations are adopted.licy recommendations are adopted.

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Electricity GenerationCleaner Electricity Mixes for 2020 and (2050)

Efficient energy use & solar hot water to reduce demand. Then:

Natural gas (including cogeneration): 22% (20%)

Bioenergy from crop residues etc, base-load: 8% (25%)

Wind power, base-load: 10% (20%)

Coal: (78% now) 43% (0%)

Hydro: (8% now), peak-load 8% (5%)

Solar thermal elec with thermal storage, base-load 2.5% (10%)

Solar PV, no storage, intermediate & peak-load 2.5% (10%)

Geothermal, hot rock, base-load 3% (10%)

RE alone obtains 54 Mt/year RE alone obtains 54 Mt/year reductionreduction in COin CO22 emissions in 2020emissions in 2020

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Cleaner Energy Mix: Direct Local Jobs per Unit of Electricity Generated

3.5–5Wind power with 80% Australian content

Approx. 3.5(mostly rural)

Bio-electricity with 50% Australian content

2–3Wind power with 50% Australian content

1Coal electricity + coal mining

Relative number of job-years per kWh in Australia

Source of electricity

Principal source: MacGill, Watt & Passey (2002)

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Energy SupplyBiomass residues could supply 8% Australia’s electricity in 2020; 30% in 2040

Burning sawmill & sugar cane residues at Rocky Point, Qld

• Fuels include wheat stubble, sugar cane residues & plantation forest residues.

• Residues & organic wastes cheapest & fastest, but resource limited.

• Price depends on distance that fuel is transported

• Generates base-load power

• Biomass residues don’t compete with food

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Energy Supply

Albany wind farm, W.A.

• 20% of electricity achieved in Denmark, 25% planned for 2010

• Changes to transmission network are needed

• Large-scale dispersed wind + gas turbines can substitute for coal in grid = base-load

Wind could generate 10% of Australia’s electricity in 2020 and 20% in 2040

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Large-Scale, Dispersed Wind is not ‘Intermittent’

Single wind turbines are intermittent (they switch on and off frequently in low winds)

Multiple wind farms, located in geographically separated locations, are not intermittent. In general, their total output varies slowly.

At windy sites, about 2600 MW of wind power can substitute for the electricity generation of a 1000 MW coal power station, which can be retired.

The wind farms can be made as reliable as coal, by adding a little peak-load plant, such as gas turbines.

Since the peak-load plant has low capital cost and in operated infrequently, it provides reliability insurance with a low premium.

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Gas as a Transitional Fuel

Combined cycle power stations: 30% of electricity by 2040

Cogeneration of electricity and heat, especially in industrial &commercial sectors

Back-up for solar hot water, solar space heating & solar thermal electricity

Back-up for wind power with peak-load gas turbines

Post-2050, gas gradually replaced by solar (both PV and STE) and biofuels produced sustainably

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Solar Photovoltaic (PV)

Electrical storage is still expensiveElectrical storage is still expensive

So PV is daytime power: So PV is daytime power: intermediateintermediate-- & peak& peak--loadload

Just as important as baseJust as important as base--loadload

Technological advances will reduce Technological advances will reduce cost of PV panelscost of PV panels

Needs R&D funding and market Needs R&D funding and market stimulusstimulus

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Solar Thermal Electricity with Thermal Storage

• Thermal storage in water, rock bed or thermo-chemical system e.g. salts

• Much cheaper than electrical storage

• Base-load (24-hour) power

• Will be commercially available before ‘clean coal’ & ‘new generation’ nuclear

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Hot Rock Geothermal Power

Under development in Under development in France and AustraliaFrance and Australia

In Australia, best potential In Australia, best potential in in nn--ee S.A and S.A and ss--ww QldQld

BaseBase--load powerload power

Low water use and low Low water use and low pollutionpollution

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Matching Demand and Supply

Hydro & gas turbines

Coal & gas combined cycle

Coal

Gas, biomass, wind, solar thermal + storage, geothermal

Hydro, gas turbine, biomass

Solar PV, gas CC

ConventionalRenewable & gas

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Substituting Solar Hot Water & Intermediate-Load Gas for Base-Load Coal

Coal-fired off-peak hot water artificially boosts demand for base-load coal power. Shut down this component of coal power and substitute with solar, gas & electric heat pump hot water and intermediate-load electricity.

‘Base-load’ is artificial construct to justify inflexibility of coal & nuclear.

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Scenario 2 for 2020: Energy, Transport and Beyond

• Emissions 33% below 1990 level by 2020• Biggest reductions from EE and RE• Stop land clearing & deforestation 45 Mt p.a;• Cut fugitive emissions 40 Mt p.a.• Aluminium 28 Mt p.a.;• Agriculture 23 Mt

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What we can do in response to delays by governments, Federal & State

Individual family actions are necessary. They set precedents and have limited educational value.

Individual & family actions are not sufficient. Governments make the laws, collect taxation revenue and make infrastructure decisions.

A social movement is essential for changing Government and Opposition policies and for changing business practices and products.

In USA and Australia, social movements are growing. They involve local governments, some businesses, environmental NGOs, faith groups, trade unions and concerned citizens.

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Key Govt Policies Needed

Ratify Kyoto Protocol & support stronger targets post-2012 –Federal

Increase Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET) to 25% of electricity by 2020 – Fed and State

Set greenhouse intensity limit for new baseload power stations of 0.5 t CO2-e/MWh – State

Introduce general carbon pricing, either by carbon tax or emission permits with tight cap, auctioned temporary permits and trading –Fed or States

Set energy ratings & minimum energy performance standards for all buildings, appliances & equipment -- Fed & State

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Key Govt Policies Needed, ctdCharge realistic prices for water used by power stations – State

Charge users of air conditioners realistic prices for infrastructure -- State

Ban off-peak electric hot water tariffs and new electric resistance hot water systems -- State

Provide rebate for solar hot water -- State

Foster solar for clothes drying, space heating and low-temperature industrial process heat -- State

Fund a more geographically distributed transmission system -- Fed & State

Fund R & D for energy efficiency and for expensive renewables with huge potential: e.g. solar electricity and 2nd generation bioenergy – Fed & State

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Key Govt Policies Needed: Transport

Fund urban public transport and intercity rail equally with roads - Fed & States

Do urban & regional planning to ensure locations of major traveldestinations are supplied by public transport, preferably rail - State

Stop building major roads; limit parking places in urban centres & subcentres -- State

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Stern Review of Macro-Economic Models

Cost of business-as-usual will be huge: 5–20% of annual global GDP by 2050

Costs equivalent to a world war or a major economic depression

Costs of greenhouse response will be small: about 1% of annual global GDP by 2050

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Micro-Economics of Sustainable Energy Mix

Sustainable energy = Energy efficiency + Renewable energy

Efficient energy use saves money and pays for most of the additional costs of renewable energy

Existing subsidies to production & use of oil can be transferred to public transport.

Any shortfall can be obtained from carbon pricing, either a carbon tax or auctioned permits.

Sustainable energy is least-cost & fastest greenhouse solution.

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SummaryHuman-induced climate change is accelerating; therefore big reductions are needed beforebefore 2020

Coal with CO2 burial may not be commercially available for 20 years or more

Nuclear power is too slow to be a short-term solution and will become a significant CO2-emitter in the long-term

Efficient energy use, some types of renewable energy and gas (as a transitional fuel) are ready now and together can achieve big GHG reductions beforebefore 2020.

Federal Government is attempting to delay strong action (especially carbon pricing) for 15–20 years until its preferred technologies maymay be ready

Individual action is necessary, but not sufficient.

We need a social movement to generate the political will in governments and Oppositions.

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Further Reading

Diesendorf M (2007a) Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy, UNSW Press

Diesendorf M (2007b) The Base-load Fallacy, <www.energyscience.org.au>, briefing paper No. 16

Diesendorf (2007c) Paths to a Low Carbon Future: Reducing Australia’s Greenhouse gas Emissions by 30% by 2020. Greenpeace Australia Pacific