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Sustainable Australia Presentation by

Jamie QuinnManaging Director of Jamie Quinn Consulting and

Senior Associate of Eidos Institute www.eidos.org.au

toEidos Institute and SEGRA

Regional Development National Conference Wednesday 28 September 2011

(website publication version)

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Sustainable Australia is a three part story about where and how Australia can productively and sustainably

accommodate more people.

1st part - Why Sustainable Australia is our greatest challenge 2nd part - Facing the challenge together (community,

business and all levels of Government) 3rd part - Growing the role of communities and Councils

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The 1st part of the Story

Why Sustainable Australia is our greatest challenge

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Geological Time Clock – Keeping ourselves in perspective

We are the tiny speck at the end of 4,600 million years.

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Global Population Projection

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The human race has existed for many thousands of years, but it took until just over 200 years ago - about the year 1800 - for our population to reach 1 billion. Since then we have been populating Mother Earth at a tremendous, and unsustainable, rate.

The world population increased by 3 billion in the last 40 years and is projected to increase by 2.4 billion in the next 40 years, from 6.8 billion (in 2010) to 9.2 billion (in 2050). That’s equivalent to the existing combined population of China (1.3 billion) and India (1.1 billion) - in just 40 years.

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Alarm bells are ringing – but how much attention is being paid?

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Australian Population Projection

Source: Australian Government 2010 Intergenerational Report

Projected population profile challenging sustainability

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Big Australia? Small Australia? Who knows? However, if the world is increasing by the combined population of existing China and India - in just 40 years – Australia’s growth is more likely to be on the high side.

Irrespective of the eventual size of the increase, we have to be able to answer the where and how questions. Additional to the Sustainable Australia challenge, world growth in the order of 2 billion plus in the next 40 years will force Australia - a large, resource rich, sparsely inhabited land - to confront enormous international pressures and world food security challenges.

Australia’s changing population profile is just as critical as its absolute population growth. An aging population and reducing tax payer base will challenge Australia’s economic sustainability going forward.

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warning bell

Metropolitan traffic congestion

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another warning bell – urban water crises

Attribution: Queensland Government

Wivenhoe Dam, SEQ – April 2007

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Murray-Darling water crisis

another warning bell

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Other Warning Bellssoaring living costs – electricity, water, transport

waterway health risk

underground water riskcrime and personal safety concerns

environmental and economic production conflict

energy and environment conflictenergy and economic production conflict

metropolitan creep into good agricultural land

species risk and extinction

natural disaster impacts exacerbated by previous poor planning

biodiversity impacts

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A growing and changing World shaping Australia’s Future

Beijing – Good one day, not so good the next. Attribution: Bobak

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Doesn’t matter which side of the world you live on

Santiago Chile. Attribution: Wurstsalat

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Or at home

Ipswich 2011 FloodsCourtesy: Melissa Hicks

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Or in the Aussie Outback

Attribution: VirtualSteve

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Attribution: L. Conrad

No matter where -

this is a human tragedy

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Over time, the world’s problems will more pressingly become Australia’s problems. We’ll have to be part of the global solution. We won’t have a choice. We must face the Sustainable Australia challenge head-on in order to address the warnings pulsing out across our nation. That means coping with a whole raft of issues such as:• Impacts of Chinese and Indian urbanization• Changing demography• Health servicing • Housing affordability• Economic sustainability• Immigration • Productivity• Workforce participation• Infrastructure• Impacts on biodiversity and ecological sustainability• Climate change• Carbon constraint• Energy security• Water security

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Australian Population Distribution

– More Context for the Challenge

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Population of Australia’s 18 Major Cities – comparison 2004 and 2009Source: Figure 1 of National Urban Policy 2010 Discussion Paper

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15 million (68 %) of the Australian population of 22 million is accommodated in the 5 metropolitan regions of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

A further 1.5 million (7%) is accommodated in the remaining 13 major cities of 100,000 population or greater. The 18 major cities of Australia comprise just a few % of the Australian land mass, 75 % of the population, 75 % of jobs and produce 80 % of the GDP.

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Australia/USA/China/India/Indonesia – Urbanisation and Population Distribution Comparison

Getting Australia’s population into perspective

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• Australia (22 million) is 89% urbanized at an annual urbanization rate of 1.2% with $41,000 per capita GDP - it has 5 cities greater than 1 million, of which Sydney is the most populous with 4.6 million – in all there are 18 cities greater than 100,000

• USA (313 million) is 82% urbanized at an annual urbanization rate of 1.2% with $47,200 per capita GDP - it has 4 cities of population greater than 5 million, of which metropolitan New York is 19 million and Los Angeles 12 million – in all there are 280 cities greater than 100,000

• China (1.3 billion) is 47% urbanized at an annual urbanisation rate of 2.3% with $7,600 per capita GDP – it has 4 cities greater than 9 million, of which Shanghai is 16 million and Beijing 12 million – in all there are about 160 cities greater than 1 million

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• India (1.1 billion) is 30% urbanized at an annual urbanisation rate of 2.4% with $3,500 per capita GDP – it has 5 cities greater than 7 million, of which New Delhi is 21 million, Mumbai 19 million and Kolcata 15 million – in all there are 43 cities of population greater than 1 million

• Indonesia (245 million) is 44% urbanised at an annual urbanisation rate of 1.7% with $4,200 per capita GDP – it has 4 cities greater than 2 million, of which Jakarta is 9 million

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Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of

the present without compromising the ability of future generations to

meet their own needs.

(Source: 1987 Report of the Brundtland Commission – United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development.)

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Attribution: A. Palmer

Attribution: J Dwyer

This is not sustainable development

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The 2nd part of the StoryFacing the challenge together

Community, business and all levels of Government planning and implementing Sustainable

Australia

We all have a role to play

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Projected absolute growth and rates of growth in major cities between 2001 and 2006

Source: Dec 2010 Sustainable Pop. Strategy - Productivity and Prosperity Panel Report – Figure 6.1

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Projected rates of population growth between 2006 and 2031

Source: Dec 2010 Sustainable Pop. Strategy - Productivity and Prosperity Panel Report – Figure 2.4

Rates of growth are only one view of the challenge

The Beginning of Australia’s Future – working out

where and how Australia can productively and

sustainably accommodate more people

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When we fully engage business and community, with a scientifically established evidence base - within a Sustainable Australia Framework that integrates national, State and Local Government planning – and when we get the right answers to the tough where and how questions - the projection of rate of population growth (indicated in the December 2010 Sustainable Population Strategy - Productivity and Prosperity Panel Consultation Report) may be very different.

Increased population, urban renewal and the need for productivity growth will drive development. Failures of the past are driving community understanding of the need for better planning for the future.

Understanding where and how we can productively and sustainably accommodate between 8 million (world trend) and 13 million (2010 Intergeneration Report projection) additional people in metropolitan and regional Australia by 2050, is fundamental to addressing the Sustainable Australia challenge. This is a central tenet of the Australian Government’s Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities Strategy, released by Minister Burke in May 2011.

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The Where and How Questions are:

Where and how do we grow sustainable communities in metropolitan and regional Australia?

How do we ensure renewal development is sustainable?

How do we ensure sustainable development delivers productivity growth and community wellbeing?

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The Sustainable Australia Framework has three components:

1. Top component - Australian Government nation building and sustainability policies

2. The glue in the middle – State/Territory Governments and the Regional Development Australia Partnership

3. Foundation component – community, business and Local Government

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The Australian Government and State/Territory Governments recognise the challenge and relevant public policy

and planning is evolving.

There is a lot still to be done, but it is heading in the right direction.

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The top component of the Framework comprises Australian Government nation building and sustainability policy. Many reviews, policies and plans have emerged in recent years including:• - Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities Strategy (May 2011)• - National Urban Policy (May 2011)• - Infrastructure Australia (Infrastructure Australia Act 2008)• - Regional Development Australia (September 2009) • - National Aviation Policy (December 2009)• - 2010 Intergenerational Report (January 2010)• - National Broadband Network (FTTP announcement April 2009)• - National Ports Strategy (December 2010)

• - National Land Freight Strategy (consultation paper issued February

2011)• - Carbon Price (transition to ETS announcement February 2011)

• - National Digital Economy Strategy (May 2011)

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Much of the national planning effort in the infrastructure and sustainable development space is being undertaken by Infrastructure Australia with associated government agencies.

Much of the co-ordination and implementation is being driven through the Action Plan attached to the National Urban Policy released by Minister Albanese in May 2011.

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Example of current national planning - Indicative national landfreight network

Source: National Land Freight Strategy Discussion Paper February 2011

38Source: National Land Freight Strategy Discussion Paper February 2011

Example of current national planning

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Queensland Government example

The glue in the middle is provided by State and Territory Governments and Regional Development Australia.

Some States are quite advanced - eg in Queensland the planning legislative framework includes:• the Water Act - Water Resource

Plans, Resource Operations Plans and Water Supply Strategies

• the Sustainable Planning Act – State Regional Plans and Council Land Use Planning Schemes

• the Local Government Act - Community Plans, Corporate Plans, Financial Plans and Asset Management Plans

Map Source: Qld Dept of Local Govt. and Planning website

Qld Regional Planning Projects – at November 2010

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The Regional Development Australia Charter, of September 2009, establishes a partnership between the Australian, State, Territory and Local governments to develop and strengthen the regional communities of Australia.

There are 55 RDA committees in Australia and the RDA Charter provides that RDA will work with all sectors of the community to contribute to and drive:• regional business growth plans and strategies• environmental solutions for sustainability and management of climate change• social inclusion strategies

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Australia’s projected changing population profile

Source: Australian Govt. Intergenerational Report 2010

Economic sustainability is a major goal of much of the government policy and planning effort.

Part of the Sustainable Australia challenge is to minimize the negative impact on workforce participation and maximize productivity growth.

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A significant emerging gap is the community and Council role in the Sustainable Australia Framework.

Most of the 560 Councils of Australia and our local communities need help to play their role in SAF.

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Top-down only will fail

Bottom-up only will fail

It must be an integrated top-down-bottom-up approach

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The 3rd part of the Story

Growing the role of Communities and Councils

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Communities and Councils – the building blocks of Australian society

Attribution: Melburnian

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Communities are the building blocks of Australian society.

They are many and varied; and insightful and powerful when well informed, engaged and well governed.

Local Councils must engage and lead their communities in understanding their region’s capacity for sustainable development.

In Queensland, the Community Plan is the peak Council planning instrument which establishes the community’s vision and gives direction to all other Council planning.

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Growing the role of Communities and Councils

Attribution: Sage Ross

Community Planning facilitated by a Local Sustainable Development System (LSDS) comprise the foundation component of the Sustainable Australia Framework

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Eidos Institute

Sustainable Australia Seminar

Friday 2 December 2011

Will focus on how to grow the role of Communities and Councils

The balance of this presentation touches lightly on how to grow the community and Council roles – and some of the research and development needs - to give a flavour of the foundation component of the Sustainable Australia Framework.

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Sustainable Australia involves growing the role of communities and Councils through Community Planning, facilitated by a Local Sustainable Development System (LSDS).

Australian communities want their local planning to convert their vision into sustainable reality and community wellbeing.

Community Planning is well established in the Qld Local Government Act. The LSDS uses evidence emanating from national and State planning outcomes and builds upon public and private investment. It provides a vehicle by which Councils can engage and lead their communities in understanding their region’s capacity for sustainable development and its contribution to Sustainable Australia. In Queensland, the Local Sustainable Development System is supportive of, and simply folds into the existing Community Planning process. It will greatly enhance the Community Planning outcomes; and community ownership of the outcomes.

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Summary of the Local Sustainable Development System:• Aim and specific outcomes• 10 critical success factors • LSDS definitions• 7 steps in LSDS • Process chain for determining urban design capacity• Process chain for determining surplus regional design capacity

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The LSDS aim is delivery of productivity growth and community wellbeing through specific outcomes including:• assessment of sustainable growth capacity• consistency with the national and regional development agenda• sustainable growth and/or sustainable renewal• maintenance of surplus regional design capacity

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What would a Local Sustainable Development System have to do well to deliver the necessary outcomes for Sustainable Australia?

10 LSDS critical success factors:1. Evidence based community visioning2. Sensitive to regional history and geography3. Take advantage of regional strengths4. Manage regional risks5. Balance competing issues6. Be impact assessable7. Be affordable8. Assess sustainable growth capacity9. Guide subordinate planning10. Deliver sustainable development, productivity growth and community wellbeing

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Two South East Queensland examples of the need for:• Sustainable regional design (Lockyer Valley)• Acceptable urban design (Ipswich regional business and industry parks)

55Source: SEQ Water Strategy Consultation Draft

An important SEQ example of the need for sustainable regional design is preservation and development of the Lockyer Valley as one of Australia’s premium food bowls.

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Lockyer Valley – a freak of earth’sgeologic development

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Lockyer Valley is an important element of Australia’s future food security in the face of the unsustainable impact of increasing food miles.

Water resources are critical for the preservation and development of Lockyer Valley and accordingly water resource planning and strategy will be an important component in assessment of the regional design capacity of SEQ.

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Important SEQ Western Corridor aspects of acceptable urban design involve water security and Ipswich’s development of major business and industry parks in reasonable proximity to residential growth.

Source: Ipswich 2020 and Beyond - Ipswich City Council website www.ipswich.qld.gov.au

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Acceptable urban design capacity is the product of the urban design density profile, which is acceptable to the community, and the size and shape of the urban footprint. It must account for all sustainability issues, including competitive advantage. The more effective the evidence based engagement of business and community, the closer the acceptable urban design capacity will be to the optimum urban design capacity, which is controlled by regional design capacity.

Important SEQ Western Corridor aspects of acceptable urban design involve water security and Ipswich’s development of major industry parks in reasonable proximity to residential growth. Population and jobs must come together. Population without jobs is not sustainable; and, of course, water security is critical for both population and jobs. SEQ now has the most secure water supply of any Australian metropolitan area.

In the case of Ipswich’s development of these job generators in reasonable proximity to residential growth (including Springfield and Ripley Valley), water security (and purified recycled water in particular) is a distinct competitive advantage. This enhances the opportunity for a reduced differential between acceptable urban design capacity and optimum urban design capacity, allowing Ipswich to play it’s a part in addressing the Sustainable Australia challenge.

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We have to invest in research and development to plan and implement the future better than the past.

Attribution: Sendination

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We need a really well equipped tool box to achieve Sustainable Australia. Currently the tool box is only partly equipped.

We didn’t plan and implement the past anywhere near well enough because we didn’t understand the implications for our future well enough. We can’t make the same mistakes again. We can’t allow the ‘she’ll be right mate’ culture to blindside us in the next 40 years - as it did in the last 40 years. Our wealth of resources and low population base let us dodge a bullet – the world and Australia have changed. We can’t ignore the warnings any longer. We have to invest in research and development to plan and implement the future better than the past.

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The LSDS and the Sustainable Australia Framework integration and optimization roles clearly highlight some research and development needs that include:• tools to develop the evidence base and evidence analysis • regional and urban design and capacity assessment tools• modelling and multi-dimensional scenario testing tools• tools to test for SAF integration and optimization • tools to test strategies for sustainable development in favour of productivity growth and community wellbeing • efficient mechanisms for private investment in enabling infrastructure

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Conclusions and Actions for the Way Ahead relate to:• Sustainable Australia Framework• Local Sustainable Development System• Research and development to deliver Sustainable Australia

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Australian, State and Local governments understand the need to manage Australia’s continuing population growth in a productive and sustainable way. Our egalitarian society demands a top-down-bottom-up approach. The Australian federal system of government is well suited to deliver this approach. The Australian Government has effectively established the top component of the Framework.

The State Governments have reasonably advanced water and regional planning legislative frameworks in place. Regional Development Australia establishes a partnership between the Australian, State, Territory and Local governments to develop and strengthen the regional communities of Australia. The States and RDA comprise the glue in the middle.

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The major gap is the foundation component – a Local Sustainable Development System to facilitate Community Planning in Councils (or other local or regional planning authorities) in all States and Territories.

The lack of an effective LSDS jeopardises the whole Sustainable Australia effort by depriving all levels of government of:• a valuable local and regional evidence base• essential community and business engagement• tools and outcomes to support integrated and optimised regional and

urban planning and design For Australia to productively and sustainably accommodate more people, the way ahead should be forged by actions to develop a comprehensive Sustainable Australia Framework, including a Local Sustainable Development System; and research and development necessary to support the planning and implementation of Sustainable Australia.