Sustainability Challenges In A Complex World

A PARTNER WITHDr Sarah CornellYork, July 2015

Sustainability challenges in a complex world

Steffen et al. 2007. “The Anthropocene: Are Humans Now Overwhelming the Great Forces of Nature?”

Williams, Zalasiewicz, also Revkin

Our current location: The Anthropocene

Images: Springer Verlag 2005

+4

0

-4

-8

Time, thousands of years ago

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era

ture

fr

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pre

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Plot shows GRIP ice core O18 isotope data – a measure of past air temperature

Holocene

Homo sapiens living in Asia… … in Australia and Europe

Neolithic revolution – first villages and farming

Roman empire

100 80 60 40 20 0

many rapid temperature changes (glacial periods) through history

The 2°C global warming policy target

Business- as-usual

trajectory

Desired

‘stable state’

The Anthropocene challenge:

People are pushing the planet in one direction,

but want things to stay the same

How do we know

what complex systems

are doing?

The ‘Bretherton Diagram’ (NASA 1988) set out the observational, conceptual and

computational modelling framework for 1-2 decades of global change research.

How do we know? We simplify. We observe*.

GHG Emissions

MAGICC

ICLIPS

tool

Impacts

Alternative economic modules; simulation

of mitigation

Downscalers

Scengen

Spatial

CLIMATE TOOLKIT

Economy Climate SystemE3MG v1

AlternativeClimateModules

of varyingcomplexity

GHG Emissions

MAGICC

ICLIPS

tool

Impacts


of mitigation

Downscalers

Scengen

Spatial

CLIMATE TOOLKIT

Economy Climate SystemE3MG v1

AlternativeClimateModules

of varyingcomplexity

New Tech

RICE

Land & ocean

Carbon cycles

Biomes (simple) BC

Goldstein

Hydrology

Health:

dengue

Coarse (global) damage

UK drought algorithms

GHG Emissions

MAGICC

ICLIPS

tool

Impacts


of mitigation

Downscalers

Scengen

Spatial

CLIMATE TOOLKIT

Economy Climate System

Alternative Climate Modules

E3MG

v1New Tech

RICE

Land & ocean

Carbon cycles

Biomes (simple) BC

Goldstein

Hydrology

Health:

dengue



MIND

Sectoral/regional damage

CropsFood

Health:

malaria

Health:Heat stress

DINAS-coast(sea-level rise)

Biomes (complex)

Famous

GHG Emissions

MAGICC

ICLIPS

tool

Impacts


of mitigation

Downscalers

Scengen

Spatial

CLIMATE TOOLKIT



E3MG

v1New Tech

RICE

Land & ocean

Carbon cycles

Biomes (simple) BC

Goldstein

Hydrology

Health:

dengue



MIND


Crops

Food

Health:

malaria

Health:

Heat stressDINAS-coast

(sea-level rise)

Biomes (complex)

Famous

Air Pollution

Adaptation simulation

Ecosystems,Biodiversity

Corals

GHG Emissions

MAGICC

ICLIPS

tool

Impacts


of mitigation

Downscalers

Scengen

Spatial

CLIMATE TOOLKIT



E3MG

v1New Tech

RICE

Land & ocean

Carbon cycles

Biomes (simple) BC

Goldstein

Hydrology

Health:

dengue



MIND


Crops

Food

Health:

malaria

Health:


(sea-level rise)

Famous

Air Pollution


Ecosystems,

Biodiversity

Corals

Land use

change

Migration/security

??

Temporal

Extreme event predictors

Extreme outcome predictors

Biomes (complex)

GHG Emissions

MAGICC

ICLIPS

tool

ImpactsDownscalers

Scengen

Spatial

CLIMATE TOOLKIT


E3MG v1

New Tech

RICE

Land & ocean

Carbon cycles

Biomes (simple) BC

Goldstein

Hydrology

Health:

dengue



MIND


Crops

Food

Health:

malaria

Health:


(sea-level rise)

Famous

Air Pollution


Ecosystems,

Biodiversity

Corals

Land use

Change

Migration/

security

??

Temporal



Biomes (complex)Housing

Transport

Population

GHG Emissions

RICE

MIND

MAGICC

BC

Goldstein

Famous

Crops

Food Hydrology

ICLIPS

tool

Impacts

Land & oceanCarbon cycles

Land use

Change

Downscalers

Scengen ??

Spatial Temporal


Health:

dengue

Health:

malaria

Health:

Heat stress

Ecosystems,

Biodiversity

Corals



Biomes (simple)

Biomes (complex)


CLIMATE TOOLKIT

Air Pollution

Migration

/security



DINAS-coast

(sea-level rise)

feedbacks


New Tech

E3MG v3

Health:

respiratory

Housing

Transport

Popula

tion

Kuhn, Wiegent and Luterbacher, 1992. Pathways of Understanding : The Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental

Change. University Center, MI: The Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

What kind of complex system

is planet Earth?

(apart from large… many parts, of many different kinds, with multiple connections,

and that interact across all scales (von Bertalanffy 1968)

Living and non-living parts

of the planet interact.

They co-evolve.

Some living parts think,

and have foresight.

The Gaia Hypothesis –our planet functions as a

single organism that maintains the conditions necessary

for its survival.

James Lovelock

“hybrid” systems

• assemblages of inorganic, organic and social systems

(de Landa, Deleuze, Bhaskar)

Adaptive systems

• Resilience (and resiliencespeak)

� self-organizing, responsive, co-evolving

Purposive systems?

Learning systems?

(OR and management heuristics, classic systems methods,

Ackoff & Gharajedaghi 1996 – purpose in wholes/parts)

What do we want this

complex system to do?

The Brundtland report:‘Sustainable development aims

to promote harmony among human beings

and between humanity and nature’.

And it specifies a multifaceted integration:

• a political system that secures effective citizen participation in decision making,

• an economic system that is able to generate surpluses and technical knowledge on a self-reliant and

sustained basis,

• a social system that provides for solutions for the tensions arising from disharmonious development,

• a production system that respects the obligation to preserve the ecological base for development,

• a technological system that can search continuously for new solutions,

• an international system that fosters sustainable patterns of trade and finance, and

• an administrative system that is flexible and has the capacity for self-correction.

World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our Common Future, A/42/427. Chapter 2 The concept of Sustainable Development. www.un-documents.net/ocf-02.htm.

1987: Harmony between humanity and nature, among human beings

1992: climate, ecosystems, human-changed landscapes (UNFCCC, CBD, UNCCD)

2000: 8 millennium goals – nb No. 8 (systemic change) has been ignored

2010: 20 biodiversity targets

2012: 9 then >12 sustainability goals proposed

2015: 17 goals, many targets, hundreds of indicators…

� Complicating the analysis sort of suggests (some) people don’t really want to change...

Creeping “complicatification” in global steering:

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Sustainability Challenges In A Complex World