Subssides for the Brazilian Bioethanol Agenda

Center for Strategic Studies and ManagementScience, Technology and Innovation

Workshop on

Hydrolysis

Route

for Cellulosic

Ethanol

from

Sugarcane

Subsidies for the Brazilian Subsidies for the Brazilian BioethanolBioethanol

AgendaAgenda

Campinas, February

10th

2009

Lucia Carvalho Pinto de MeloPresident

of

CGEE


Slide 2

Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE)Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE)

Scope and Objectives

studies and prospective analysis in the field of science and technology and its relation with the productive sectors

evaluation activities regarding economic and social analysis as well as impact of policies and programs on science, technology and innovation

information, experiences and projects to society

dialogue, articulation and interaction between the science-technology and productive sectors

technical and logistical support activities to public and private institutions

services related to its area of competence


Slide 3

CGEE: Institutional Competencies CGEE: Institutional Competencies

FORESIGHTFORESIGHT EVALUATIONEVALUATION

INFORMATIONINFORMATION

St&iSt&i

ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT

ARTICULATIONARTICULATION


Slide 4

FORESIGHT METHDOLOGY APPROACHCGEECGEECGEE


Slide 5

National Institutes for Science and Technology Program

Evaluation Commission Meeting, Brasília: October 27, 2008

National Institutes for Science and Technology Program

Evaluation Commission Meeting, Brasília: October 27, 2008

CGEE: Evaluation focus on program impacts


Slide 6

StrategicStrategic

DimensionDimension

Generating subsidies for public policy decision making process

Opportunities and Threats for the Country

Comparative Advantages

Barriers or Obstacles

Future Vision


Slide 7

Bioethanol

as a priority

on

the

Agenda

CGEE’s

working agenda is aligned with the Ministry of Science

and Technology's priorities defined by the ST&I National Plan,

being the “BioEthanol”

theme inserted in this context as highly

strategic.


Slide 8


Slide 9


Slide 10

CGEE CGEE studiesstudies relatedrelated

to to

BioethanolBioethanol


Slide 11

More than 20 countries have set goals for the introduction of Bioethanol in the fuel matrix, which lead to an annual consumption of around 80

billion liters in 2010

Some estimations indicate that world trade in Bioethanol

will grow six times by 2015

The European bloc imports currently around 500 million liters and it is estimated that should import more than three billion liters of Bioethanol

by 2015

The Latin American nations, led by Brazil, may register a surplus of more than six billion liters of Bioethanol

by 2015

Most

of this production will be exported to European, Asian and American countries

Global perspectives Global perspectives onon


as as anan

opportunityopportunity

Sources: Estudo CGEE/Nipe-Unicamp


Slide 12

Brazil

is a relevant

actor

on

the

world scenarium

of

biofuels

(ethanol)

The

great extension

of

land

and

the

climate

and

soil

conditions

are

adequate

to biomass

production

The

oilseed

crop

and

the

sugarcane

crop

are possible

in a large

part of

the

Brazilian

territory

The

world demand

for biofuels

has

been

growing

Brazil

is still an

importer

of

diesel oil

The

ethanol

production

is alrealdy

consolidated

and

the

biodiesel

production

is considered

strategic

for the

country

BrazilBrazil

andand

BiofuelsBiofuels

Source: Study

by

CGEE/Nipe-Unicamp


Slide 13

Sources: IEA –

International Energy Agency (2005) e MTEC

Ethanol yieldsLiters per hectare

Fonte: UNICA, 2008

BrazilianBrazilian

BioethanolBioethanol: : highhigh

productivityproductivity


Slide 14

The

energy

balance of

Brazilian

sugarcane-based

ethanol

is 4,5 times greater than

the

wheat-based

and

almost

7 times greater

than

the

corn-based.

Fonte: UNICA, 2008

BrazilianBrazilian

BioethanolBioethanol: : energyenergy

balance balance


Slide 15

Evolution of agricultural, industrial and Evolution of agricultural, industrial and agroindustrialagroindustrial productivity in sugar and ethanol plants in Brazilproductivity in sugar and ethanol plants in Brazil


Slide 16

Sources: NIPE-Unicamp, IBGE and

CTC

SugarcaneSugarcane

cultureculture

in in BrazilBrazil


Slide 17

Source: Study

by

CGEE/Nipe-Unicamp

PotentialPotential

expantionexpantion

ofof

sugarcanesugarcane

cultureculture

With irrigation“salvation”(< 2.000 m3/ha.year)

Soil & climate aptitudefor sugar cane culture

Amazon RainforestPantanalAtlantic Forest

Other important preservation areas

Above 12% slope area (75 Mha)

Without

irrigation

High Good Medium Inadequate(> 80 t/ha)(> 80 t/ha) (> 70 t/ha)(> 70 t/ha) (> 60 t/ha)(> 60 t/ha)


Slide 18

TechnologicalTechnological

routesroutes

for for ethanolethanol

productionproduction


Slide 19

Source: http://www.ifpri.org/2020/focus/focus14/focus14.pdf

BioenergyBioenergy

supplysupply

routesroutes

andand

technologytechnology

optionsoptions


Slide 20

Conventional genetic improvement and genetic engineering

Production models and infrastructure

Biotechnologies, agriculture of precision and optimization of inputs

Mechanical harvest, without burning and with straw collecting

Pre-processing and stock of bagasse

and straw

Fermentation, grinding and distillation improvements

Management and automation (advanced system)

Reduction of water and energy consumption and recycle of effluents

Increase of the excess power generation

Alcohol-chemistry, sugar-chemistry and biorefinery

Hydrolysis and gasification (F-T) of bagasse

and straw

Sugar-cane of high biomass (Energy cane)

R&DR&D&I &I prioritiespriorities

for for EthanolEthanol

Source: Study

by

CGEE/Nipe-Unicamp


Slide 21

For a For a BrazilianBrazilian

ResearchResearch

Agenda in Agenda in BioethanolBioethanol

In the country there

are some opportunities for cost lowering

and sustainability improvement

in the Bioetanol productive chain which have to be

studied and analyzed in order to make possible the incorporation of innovative technologies

which may keep and improve Brazil’s competitive

advantages.

The

control

of

first

and

second

generation

technologies

requires

the

national development

of

a research

agenda. This

one

have

to integrate, in a sinergical

way, the

national

efforts

(in public

and

private

research

centers), to value

and support

the

existent

iniciatives

and

goes

for a strongh

content

of

basic

knowledge

in frontiers

areas.


Slide 22

CGEE CGEE publicationspublications relatedrelated

to to



Slide 23

CGEE studies related to CGEE studies related to BioethanolBioethanol

NAE Journals: BiofuelsStudy commissioned by the Nucleus of Strategic Issues of the Presidency of the RepublicCoordination: Isaías Macedo & Luiz A. Horta Nogueira

Study on the role of State Agricultural Research Organizations (OEPAs)Study under the Management Contract signed between MCT and CGEE


Slide 24

Studies for the MCT in partnership with Nipe/Unicamp, CTC, Transpetro

and

CeneaCoordination: Rogério Cezar de Cerqueira Leite / Luís Augusto Barbosa CortezSupervision: CGEE



Slide 25

Studies for the MCT in partnership with Nipe/Unicamp, CTC and

CeneaCoordination: Rogério Cezar de Cerqueira Leite / Luís Augusto Barbosa CortezSupervision: CGEE



Slide 26

Publication in four Publication in four languages launched during languages launched during the International the International Conference on Conference on BiofuelsBiofuels, , held in São Paulo held in São Paulo (November/2008)(November/2008)

www.bioetanoldecana.orgwww.bioetanoldecana.orgwww.bioetanoldecanadeazucar.orgwww.bioetanoldecanadeazucar.orgwww.sugarcanebioethanol.orgwww.sugarcanebioethanol.orgwww.bioetanoldecanne.orgwww.bioetanoldecanne.org

PartnershipPartnership: BNDES, CGEE,: BNDES, CGEE,

Cepal e FAOCepal e FAOCoordinationCoordination: Luiz A. Horta Nogueira: Luiz A. Horta Nogueira

http://www.bioetanoldecana.org/

http://www.bioetanoldecanadeazucar.org/

http://www.sugarcanebioethanol.org/

http://www.bioetanoldecanne.org/


Slide 27

Documents to guide the Documents to guide the interventions in the interventions in the International Conference International Conference on on BiofuelsBiofuels

SupervisionSupervision: CGEE: CGEECoordinationCoordination: L. A. Horta Nogueira: L. A. Horta Nogueira


Slide 28

BioethanolBioethanol ON GOING STUDIESON GOING STUDIES

Technical

Subsidies to the

Brazilian

Agenda of

Bioethanol

Objectives

To Support

the

CTBE implementationTo Study

the

local agro-ecological

linkages

of

the

sugarcane-based

ethanol

productionTo analyse

both

socio-economic

and

environmental

routes

of

the

sugarcane-

based

ethanol

productionTo subsidy

both

national

and

international

agenda of

bioethanol

products

and

process

certificationTo study

the

effects

of

greenhouse

gases emissions

on

the

productive

chain

of

Bioethanol

first

and

second

generations

Partnership: Nipe/Unicamp, CTBE, NREL, USP and

others[Contrato de Gestão supervisionado pelo MCT]


Slide 29

Final Final RemarksRemarks

Opportunities

(oil

perspectives; global warming)

Advantages

(land; knowledge)

Threats

(technological

control; degree

of

business competition;economic crisis)

Challenge

To take

advantage

of

the

window

of

opportunity:TO ACT AS A GLOBAL PLAYER

The

role of

CTBE (a future vision...)


Slide 30

Shakespeare...

TheThe

differencedifference

betweenbetween ComedyComedy

andand

TragedyTragedy

is...is...

In a In a ComedyComedy, , youyou

discoverdiscover reality in time to do reality in time to do somethingsomething

aboutabout

it,it,

In a In a TragedyTragedy, , youyou

dondon’’t!t!


Slide 31

Thank you!

Lucia Melo [email protected]

http://www.cgee.org.br


Slide 32

NewNew

publicationspublications

ofof

CGEECGEE Available

in http://www.cgee.org.br