Space Weather Storms:

Responding to Global Concerns

Bill MurtaghNOAA Space Weather Prediction

CenterBoulder, Colorado

49th Robert H. Goddard Memorial SymposiumMarch 29-31, 2011

Growing Need for Space Weather Growing Need for Space Weather Services Services

White House Communications

Major satellite companies

FEMA Boeing FAA

Alaska DOT Chrysler MotorolaBritish Petroleum

AmericaBonneville Power

Administration

Washington St. Dept of Transportation

John Deere & Caterpillar, Inc.

Major Airlines – UAL, AA, CO, Delta

DHSSalem and Hope Creek

Nuclear Stations

Sample Recent Registrants

Almost 1,000 new customers in Feb 2011

Growing Need for Space Weather Services

Evolving technologies:

EHV (extra high voltage) Power grids

Civil precision Global Navigation Satellite Systems applications

Evolving customers and industries:

Commercial space enterprise

Arctic economic development

Airspace management needs

Evolving technologies:

EHV (extra high voltage) Power grids

Civil precision Global Navigation Satellite Systems applications

Evolving customers and industries:

Commercial space enterprise

Arctic economic development

Airspace management needs

Growing demands for space weather products are driven by the increasingly complex evolution of our Nation’s technological infrastructure

Feb 16-17, 2011

Growing Awareness

Increasing ActivitySolar Cycle 24 maximum approaching – peak in May 2013

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

• The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles

May 1921 Geomagnetic Storm

13◦

Locations for which aurora were reported on 14–15 May 1921 – Silverman, et al.

Apia, Samoa, 13 degrees south

Potential impact of a 1859 or 1921 geomagnetic storm

Coordinating on ways forward to develop and implement mitigation strategies to safeguard critical infrastructure from the impacts of severe space weather.

High-level government response…

• The Shield Act (H.R. 668) (Feb 2011)To amend the Federal Power Act to protect the electric infrastructure geomagnetic storm (and EMP)

• Meeting at White House with National Security Staff and OSTP (18 Feb)

• Op Ed in NY Times on space weather by Holdren and Beddington (10 Mar)

• Electric Infrastructure Security Summit (EISS) in Capitol building (11 Apr)

NOAA’s commitment to improved operations

• Model transition- ENLIL model in operations by 2012- Working with CCMC on geospace

model

• Upgrade operational product suite

• Continue and expand coverage of critical observations

GOES-R

Interagency Collaboration is critical to achieve above goalsInteragency Collaboration is critical to achieve above goals

A Nation vulnerable to hazardous A Nation vulnerable to hazardous space weather – A Nation increasingly space weather – A Nation increasingly

reliant on space weather servicesreliant on space weather services

• Technology evolution Technology evolution • Interconnection/InterdependencyInterconnection/Interdependency• Reliance on space-based Reliance on space-based systemssystems