Space Mega Trends Key Trends and Implications to 2030 and Beyond

Space Mega Trends

Key Trends and Implications to 2030 and Beyond

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Contents

Trend Trend

1 Augmented Satellite Based Navigation Systems

2 High Throughput Satellite Communication Services

3 Space Tourism/Commercial Spaceflight

4 Small-Satellite Clusters Replacing Large Satellites

5 Satellites in Commercial Aviation

6 3D Printing in Space Applications

7 Reusable Launch Vehicles for Cost-Efficient Space Logistics

8 All-Electric Propulsion Systems for Satellites

9 Commercial Satellite Imagery Based Services

10 Robotic Servicing Technologies for Space Applications

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1 Augmented Satellite Based Navigation Systems

The need for geo spatial positioning and tracking from commercial/civil sector is driving the

growth of augmented satellite-based navigational services market that tends to provide

positioning and tracking capability to civilian consumers. There will be a growth in demand

for tracking devices and global/regional maps in the commercial sector.

ERROR

CORRECTION

• Multi-constellation

GNSS receivers

• Integrated regional

GNSS and SBAS

networks

Capabilities • Accurate navigation service

• All-weather uninterrupted

coverage

• Horizontal and vertical

guidance

Downstream applications • Guided landing/take-off

procedures

• En route navigation

• Local consumer navigation

• Fleet tracking & management

Impacting technologies • Geo-stationary satellites

• Differential correction

• Stereographical navigation

• Doppler shift navigation

Personal navigation • More portable devices

• Increase in

Smartphone &

wearable applications

Aviation • Growth in GNSS-

based airport

infrastructure

• Enhanced ground-

based augmentation

systems

Commercial

navigation • More vehicle-mounted

devices

• Increase in GNSS-

based fleet-

management

applications

Future Trend • Global coverage through

multiple, interoperable,

regional augmented

satellite-based

navigational systems

• Large scale

commercialization of

SBAS networks

Service Catalog • Open Service

• Public Regulated

• Commercial

• Search & Rescue

Evolution of regulations

for commercial

application of GNSS-

based navigational

technology/procedures

Global GNSS devices

market to reach 7 billion

installed units and $478

billion in revenue by 2022

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2 High Throughput Satellite Communication

Services The High-Throughput Satellite Market is fast growing with multiple government and

commercial satellites currently being launched. This is resulting in high data-rate satellite

transmission capability which in turn is creating opportunities for enhanced commercial and

military broadcast services.

Benefits • Low cost high throughput

satellite connectivity

• Location-specific

connectivity options

• Tailored regional service

offerings

• Use existing hardware

(service providers)

Impacting Technologies • Multiple spot-beam

• Dedicated and shared gateway

beams

• Large scale frequency reuse

• Closed and Open networks

• Hub infrastructure for each

spot

• Terrestrial fiber-optic links

between hubs

• Laser space transmission

• Increasing need for

high throughput

satellite connectivity

• Migration to higher

frequency bandwidth

• Expansion of ground

infra structure

• Growing supply of

high throughput

satellite spectrum

Applications • HDTV/UHDTV

broadcasting

• Faster broadband internet

• Enhanced military ISR

imagery streaming

• Military and civil high

volume data-transfer

• High number of

service providers

• Increased diversity in

service offerings

• Increased number of

internet users

• Enhanced C4ISR

networks

• Reduced cost of

satellite services

Widened broadband

internet access

Evolved military satcom

market

Enhanced commercial

broadcast services

2014

2018

2024

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3 Space Tourism: Commercial Spaceflight

A very unique commercial aerospace business model evolving with the objective of

providing sub-orbital human spaceflight service to civilian customers. This business,

categorically titled ‘Commercial Spaceline’ marks the birth of a new industry in the

commercial aerospace domain.

SpaceX Over $4 billion

worth contracted

launches scheduled

as of Oct, 2013

Virgin Galactic Over 500 tourists

deposited $70

million and over

7400 tourists

expressed interest

(Aug, 2012)

Key

Technologies • Reusable launch

vehicle (repair)

• Hybrid

propulsion

Air/Base

launched vehicle

Key Progress • Regulator’s

approval for

Spaceport

construction and

launch

operations (FAA)

Key Segments • Institutions:

Spaceflight

(manned/unman

ned)

• Tourists: Sub-

orbital

spaceflight

Key Challenges • Regulatory

restrictions

(export control)

• High operational

costs and long

time-frames

Future Drivers • Economic viability

of business model

• Issue-free

operations

• Frequency of sub-

orbital

spaceflights

• Scheduled sub-

orbital manned

spaceflight

operations

• Expansion into

other regions

globally

• International

technology

transfer

• Increase in joint

venture business

models for

expanded services

at cheaper prices

• Improved reusable

spacecraft

refurnishing

methods

• Established

Commercial

Spaceline

industry with

multiple private

operators

• Diverse segments

of suborbital

spaceflight

services

Increased time of

sub-orbital flight

2014

2020

2024

2030

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4 Small-Satellite Clusters Replacing Large Satellites

With low manufacturing cost and not mandating dedicated launch vehicles, small satellite

clusters are beginning to set the trend of realizing improved space capabilities also enabling

penetration into densely populated orbital space.

2030 Formation flying and fractionated

satellite architecture: navigation

and formation control, modularity

and open-architecture for expansion

of existing clusters

Inter-satellite

connectivity:

distributed processing,

advanced data routing

protocols, faster relay,

high data rate

Reconfigurable on-

board electronics:

post-launch system

upgrade capability

(software)

Micropropulsion systems:

MEMS-based miniaturized

propulsion systems, precise

attitude control for formation

Small-satellite launch capability:

dedicated launch vehicles,

secondary payload adapters

Small-Satellite clusters delivering complex-

higher capability multi-missions at low cost

Multi-point imagery = Advanced ISR /

Cartographic Imagery / Digital Maps

Reduced financial risk: Low cost satellite missions

delivering enhanced mission capabilities across

extendable mission life .

Improved capabilities: Reduced time-Improved

quality data gathering (multi-point imaging), low-light

imaging, system reliability (through redundancy)

Multi-Mission Satellites: Modular and flexible

architecture generating multi-mission opportunities.

Increasing adoption: Enhanced functionalities and

new applications at an ‘affordable’ cost to create new

genre of satellite owners- both Military & Commercial

Future

Apps

Be

nefits

Timed multi-point data gathering =

Advanced EO / Remote sensing

Stand-Alone / Integrated Communication

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5 Satellites in Commercial Aviation

There is an increasing need for satellite connectivity in commercial aviation owing to the

operational need for seamless connectivity. Airlines are implementing satcom in their flight

operations to track and communicate with their aircraft when they are out of reach for line-

of-sight radio infrastructure. The satcom equipment and service market are rapidly growing.

Airline

Operations

Management

On-Board

Connectivity

Services

Air Traffic

Management

2015 2020 2025 2030

All commercial aircraft connected

via satellites

Satellite-based Air Traffic Management

Services Market

Automated Flight Operations

Dedicated Satellite Missions for

Commercial Aviation

Voice

Communication

Electronic

Flight Bag

Air-to-Ground

Data/ACARS

Wi-Fi

Mobile

Connectivity

Enhanced

cabin services

Guided Take-

Off/Landing

All-Weather

Positioning

En-route

navigation

Need for

seamless

connectivity

Need for

integrated

equipment

Satellite-based

ATM

procedures

Need for increased

spectrum space

Satellite-based

ATM Services

Enhanced

Flight

Operations

Airport GNSS

infrastructure

assessment

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6 3D Printing in Space Applications

Additive manufacturing technology has turned out to be disruptive, enabling manufacturing

of complex geometries while allowing cost savings through reduced time and material

wastage. The space applications industry has begun using 3D printed parts for key

components but the customers are yet to realize the operational reliability of 3D-printing.

Growth of 3D printing

implementation in government

and private space programs

3D Printing Services

Market for Space

Applications catering to

government and

commercial customers

Evolution of selective laser sintering,

streolithography & polyjet technology,

growth of low-cost 3D printing technology

3D printing implementation in space programs

(small satellite structures and satellite propulsion

system parts) 2014

2020

2025

2030

Successful missions

involving 3D printed

hardware

Space-compatible

3D-printed COTS

product availability

Educating customer on

benefits of 3D printing

Realization of cost

effective 3D printing

technologies

Improved manned space

mission reliability In Space 3D

Printing for Manned

Missions

Need for reduced cost and

time savings

Migration to 3D printing

technology for customized

space application

manufacturing

Cheaper and reliable space

missions

3D printing replacing

conventional manufacturing

practices in specific space

application segments

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7 Reusable Launch Vehicles for Cost-Efficient

Space Logistics The concept of reusable launch vehicles has gained prominence and the industry is looking

to realize partial and complete reusability of launch vehicles. The current focus is on the

reusability of the Rocket Booster Stage of launch vehicles. The cost of refurbishment and

operational reliability will determine the economic viability of the technology in the long run.

Key Cost Targets • Payloads up to 1800 kg:

$5 million per launch

• Payloads up to 45 kg: $1

million per launch

Driving Requirements

• Cost-effective orbital/sub-

orbital launch options

• Sustainable space

programs

• Standardized launch

operations

• Frequent launch

opportunities

Impacting Capabilities

• Vertical take-off/landing and

recovery

• Quicker launch vehicle repair

• Air-launched systems

(horizontal take-off/landing)

• Systems safety management

& system safety engineering

implementation

Current Focus

• Reusable booster stage

• Two-stage-to-orbit

capability

• Sub-orbital reusable

launch vehicles

• Compliance with

regulations

Opportunities

• Commercial Orbital

Transportation Services

(COTS) Program

• Demand for low earth orbit

small satellite launches

• Evolution of commercial sub-

orbital human spaceflight

Key Drivers • Launch costs

• Demonstrated reliable

reuse

• Operational feasibility

(cost and time wise)

Future Trend • Established reusable

launch vehicle market

• Cost-efficient launch

programs with

improved reliability

• Standardized launch

programs

• Long-term opportunities

for launch service

providers

Key Technologies • Restartable ignition

system for booster stage

• Throttleable rocket

engine

• Control system for

hypersonic re-entry

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8 All-Electric Propulsion Systems for Satellites

Demand for longer mission time and reliable station-keeping capability are driving evolution

of All Electric Propulsion Systems for Satellites. Overcoming technical gaps such as the

low-thrust and subsequent orbit-transfer time delays along with industries ability to

commercialise the technology is essential for wider adoption of All Electric Satellites.

2020 2025 2030 2015

Higher thrust electric

propulsion essential to

create wider buy-in

Additional Payloads =

Higher RoI = Attractive

Investment = Demand

Miniaturisation?

Electric Propulsion size

limits Launch options

Commercialisation of

technology critical to

competitive positioning

Larger-Scale Electric

Propulsion Systems

drives Deep Space

Exploration missions

Higher Thrust Electric

Propulsion Systems reduce

orbit transfer time

Attitude Control Orbit Transfer Deep Space Exploration

Single Point Failure

Scenario

Low-Thrust

Orbit Transfer Time Delays

Delayed RoI

10 x Efficiency Gain

1/10 Mass

+50-70% Lifespan

Higher RoI

Electric Propulsion

Primarily used for

in-orbit station

keeping

ESA’s program

Elektra aimed at

developing a

full-electric

propulsion

telecom satellite NASA Mars

Mission

Commercialization of All

Electric Satellites leads to

new Space Participants

Boeing 702SP all-

electric propulsion

based satellites

launch

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9 Commercial Satellite Imagery Based Services

The current satellite imagery services market has very few industry participants and is

facing issues such as high operational costs and reducing budgets. However, the regulatory

relaxation to sell high resolution satellite imagery data has opened the door for further

growth where new industry participants can enter and provide diverse on-demand services.

• On-Demand Real-Time earth

observation data services market for

the government and commercial

customers (Astrium GO-3S program)

• Data-driven disaster/climate

monitoring systems market

• Satellite imagery data through

diverse software platforms

• GIS-Data-Security Services market

• Increasing small-satellite earth

observation missions

• Regulatory relaxation for

commercial use of high

resolution satellite imagery

• Growth in online map services

for the consumer segment

• Electronic storage and web-

delivery methods

• Enhanced software-defined GIS

products and services

• Growth in imagery resellers and

analytics providers

• Interoperability between emerging

GIS software platforms

• Enhanced automated processing for

quick extraction of imagery data

Primary Bulk Satellite

Imagery Providers Imagery Resellers & Analytics Providers

Diverse Delivery Platforms

On demand/

Real-time

Data

Responsive

Decision

Making

New

Applications

New

Products Lower Costs New Users

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Robotic Servicing Technologies for Space

Applications 10

The increasing need for extended satellite mission lives have created a need for in-orbit

repair/refuelling technologies which are currently evolving. These technologies will bring

dead satellites into operation through repair & refuelling missions. These are also expected

to help remove dead satellites from orbit to create sustainable space real estate.

Future • Dedicated in-orbit servicing satellite

missions • Sustainable space real-estate • Prolonged satellite mission lives • Increased return on investment from GEO

satellite missions

Driving Needs • Longer satellite missions • In-orbit repair & refueling options for

added mission reliability • Established in-orbit servicing satellite

market • Reduced human involvement in

servicing operations in space

Key Technologies • Dexterous robotics for space

applications • Autonomous rendezvous/docking

systems • Spacecraft-spacecraft propellant

transfer technology • Control systems for effective space

operations of in-orbit repair mechanisms

Key Drivers • Increased focus on space debris

mitigation and satellite de-orbiting methods

• Small-satellite missions for in-orbit inspection

• Reducing launch costs

Benefits • Repair/refuel option for over 400

GEO satellites providing key capabilities

• Reduced risk for humans in manned space missions

• Clearance of dead satellites from orbit

• Rescue of wrongly placed satellites • Enhanced space missions with

added robotic capabilities

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Contact Us To Find Out More

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Steven Webb

Vice President

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Direct: +44 (0) 207 915 7842

Email: steven.webb@frost.com