The Space Report 2013 and

Pioneering: Sustaining U.S. Leadership in Space

Micah Walter-Range

Director – Research and Analysis

April 12, 2013

• The Space Report 2013

– Major developments and trends in 2012

– Forecasts for the future

• Pioneering: Sustaining U.S. Leadership in Space

– NASA’s current situation

– Recommendations for U.S. civil space

– ASA Vision for Space Exploration in the context of Pioneering

– The role of the states

• Space Products and Services

• The Space Economy

• Space Infrastructure

• Workforce and Education

• Perspective

The remaining slides drawn from The Space Report 2013

have been removed for online posting due to the

proprietary nature of the data.

The report is available for purchase from

www.TheSpaceReport.org

• NASA’s current position

• Space leadership

• The Pioneering Doctrine

• Specific Recommendations

• Flat budgets

• Hard to grow support

• Instability

• Mission creep

Positive Signs Reasons for Concern

In this environment, it is essential to set priorities!

• Not to develop a specific device

• Not to ship people to a destination

• Not to produce ancillary benefits (although those are

highly desirable as seen below)

• People want NASA to be a leader

• However, NASA cannot lead everything effectively

• Many common “solutions” miss the problem

• NASA’s issues come from history, organizational culture

• NASA’s purpose should be capacity building

• Pioneering is:

1. being among those who first enter a region to open it

for use and development by others

2. being one of a group that builds and prepares

infrastructure precursors, in advance of others

• Access – Developing the ability to get to and operate at a destination

• Exploration – Learning about risks and opportunities at a destination

• Utilization – Turning theoretical potential into usable technology

• Transition – Handing off capabilities to other government or private actors

• Pioneering IS NOT

– Human spaceflight only

– Exploration only

– Hostile to basic research

– A call to cancel anything

• Pioneering IS

– A mandate and mechanism for carrying that out

– A common reference framework to better compare efforts

• Four strategic recommendations

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Amend the Space Act

a) NASA right now is required to do everything (civil)

b) Issues with prioritization and deflection

Streamline the national civil space enterprise

a) Divest: Gentle glide path to divest unrelated tasks

1) Activities still resident at NASA funded with pass-through

2) For remaining activities, switch from enabling to implementing

b) Consolidate: Hard targets for infrastructure reduction

1) Housecleaning, incentives to break from archivist mindset

2) Use independent auditors. Emulate existing mechanisms.

c) Commercialization

1) Build on ongoing efforts and capture lessons learned

2) Solicit further ideas from industry; open an RFI for concepts

Stabilize NASA leadership and planning

a) Administrator: 5-year renewable term (dismissal for cause)

1) Clarity of purpose permits effective evaluation

2) Cause includes poor performance, but not an at-will appointment

b) 10-year, 30-year plan by NASA to Congress every 5 years

1) Report every 5 years, include report on last 5 years

2) 10-year plan with concrete specifics, 30-year plan for concepts

c) Congressional Commission

1) Headed by Administrator (or designee)

2) Mix of Presidential, Congressional proxies: trusted access

3) Regular, ongoing planning process

Stabilize NASA funding

a) Use different appropriations tools to increase stability

1) Navy shipbuilding, National Defense Sealift Fund

2) Mix of appropriations tools

A. Revolving Fund

B. Advance appropriations

C. Multi-year appropriations

b) Increasing accountability

1) NASA 2005 Authorization Act, §103

2) Programs in breach fall out to year-by-year appropriation

• Ten tactical recommendations

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• The primary goals are to help maintain U.S. leadership

at the forefront of aerospace research and development,

as well as to enhance states’ competitiveness in global

aerospace markets.

• Areas of alignment between Pioneering and the ASA are

highlighted in green text.

• The ASA vision for space exploration… is designed to

stimulate industry growth by:

– matching common space exploration goals with complementary

resources and capabilities among space-faring nations to

promote collaborative utilization of assets (technological and

human) that can reduce the costs and enhance the benefits of

space missions;

– fostering public-private partnerships that strategically apportion

intellectual and technical assets among government and

corporate entities to maximize efficiencies and accelerate

timetables for mission planning and implementation;

– promoting long-term, community-based advocacy for aerospace

initiatives that reach beyond the policies and priorities of

individual Administrations and Congresses to enable sustainable

programs over decadal time periods; and

– focusing on initiatives that embrace a broad range of

applications and deliverables through a balanced program

involving both robotic and human exploration that can:

• advance space science, education and commerce;

• test, validate and deploy new technologies that can extract

• and utilize extraterrestrial resources in-situ; and thereby

• enhance humankind’s ability to establish affordable and

• sustainable settlements beyond low-Earth orbit.

• Responsibilities

– Enable execution of NASA activities

– Promote transition of capabilities out of NASA

– Develop workforce

• Benefits

– Long-term stability

– Improved access to space

– Potential for greater industry growth

– Inspirational effect on students

Space Foundation website

www.spacefoundation.org

The Space Report 2013

www.thespacereport.org

Pioneering: Sustaining U.S. Leadership in Space

www.spacefoundation.org/research/pioneering

Micah Walter-Range

Email: mwalterrange@spacefoundation.org

Phone: (202) 618-3062