Small Cells: the bridge between 4G and 5G

Caroline Gabriel, Research DirectorRethink Technology Research

Path to 5GLong survival for LTE

NTT DocomoDeutsche Telekom

Variable timescales for 5GLeading use cases – fixed wireless, large events45% of MNOs will wait after 2023 to make first movesBut definitive 5G elements will start earlier – C-RAN, density, MEC

Many of these start in small cell layer, and will reshape it

RETHINK TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH 2016

8

79

69

47

1613

45

5

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5G radio Dense HetNet C-RAN and MEC

% o

f MN

Os

Before 2020 2020-2023 2024 and later

% of MNOs planning to embark on 5G and HetNet. Source: Rethink

Operator priorities▪ Densification

▪ Effective way to address data surge

▪ Efficient use of spectrum

▪ New services and revenues

▪ Indoor and remote coverage▪ Essential for enterprise and M2M

▪ First mover advantage

▪ Virtualization

▪ Migration path to 5G▪ Some MNOs want to focus on LTE for many years

▪ But need smooth migration at the right time

▪ Interoperability and future-proofing

The answer: small cell HetNet

45 42

8

1612

48

12

8488

58

80

7276

68

82

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% o

f MN

Os

2016 2020

% of MNOs planning to deploy key HetNet enablers by 2016 and 2020. Source: Rethink

Key enablers for operator network strategiesMNOs – sustain and expand MBB models, add new revenue streams, reduce cost

Challenger operators

94

44

31 2921 19 18 18 15 13

0102030405060708090

100

% o

f MN

Os

Drivers to deploy dense networks Source: Rethink 2016

Key enablers – density, virtualization, openness – not all about 5G

Densification

NowDense HetNet

5GHyperdensity

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

,000

cel

ls

Hyperdense Dense Medium dense Non-dense

Deployment of small cells by density Source: Rethink

Virtualization

NownFAPI, clusters

5GMultilayered C-RAN

Centralized local RAN

Enterprise efficiencies

Virtualized local RAN

Enterprise subnets

Centralized macro RAN

Resource efficiencies

Virtualized macro RAN

MEC support, many traffic types

Common management

Massive capacity

Full migration

Network slicing

Openness

NowSDOs, interfaces

5GOpen source, APIs

Huge number of moving parts, dynamic allocation, near-real time responseOpen frameworks essential

But barriers remainLowering barriers to dense HetNetnow will ease the path to 5G and accelerate timelines for advanced networks

25

38

21

16

9

42

22

26

8

24

32

37

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

<1 year 1-2 years 3-4 years Longer%

of M

NO

sIdeal Likely Worst case

Rethink operator survey Q416 – timelines to densify

Who will be the operators?▪ Virtualization, MEC and slicing all rely on

small cells

▪ Enterprise requirements

▪ Vertical market networks▪ Rail, auto, factory

▪ Web giants

▪ Convergence and other infrastructure owners

▪ MNO broadband models – opportunity or barrier?

▪ Flexible, interoperable HetNet leading to many subnets and then slicing

Source: Netmanias

Questions?