Singularity University Live Prediction Markets Simulation & Big Data Quantitative Indicators
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Melanie Swan [email protected]@lablogga July 14, 2014 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Live Prediction Markets Simulation Big Data Indicators Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ SU GPS for the Mind: www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp1 SU Prediction Market: gsp14.inklingmarkets.com
Singularity University Live Prediction Markets Simulation & Big Data Quantitative Indicators
Singularity University Live Prediction Markets Workshop & Big Data Quantitative Indicators: Creating the future means being able to understand and operate within multiple areas of rapidly changing technology. We need to know how to harness the many digital tools and indicators at our disposal. Market principles are being deployed on a larger scale in novel ways to rethink traditional institutions and allow unprecedented global-scale collaboration, communication, remuneration, and real-time information flow through prediction markets, cyber-currencies (Bitcoin, etc.), and eLabor marketplaces.
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Melanie Swan [email protected] @lablogga July 14, 2014 Slides:
http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Live Prediction Markets Simulation
Big Data Indicators Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ SU GPS for
the Mind: www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp1 SU Prediction Market:
gsp14.inklingmarkets.com
1 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Workshop Timeline Big Data
Quant Methods Introduction 10 min GPS for the Mind Exercise 5 min
Prediction Markets Overview 25 min Estimation Exercise 10 min Live
Prediction Markets Workshop 60 min
2 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 About Melanie Swan Trader,
philosopher, futurist, entrepreneur, founder DIYgenomics, writer
Education: MBA Finance, Wharton; BA French/Economics, Georgetown
University; Kingston University London, Paris Univ 8 Work
experience: Fidelity, JP Morgan, Arthur Andersen, iPass, RHK/Ovum
Current projects: melanieswan.com Sample publications Swan, M. The
Quantified Self: Fundamental Disruption in Big Data Science and
Biological Discovery. Big Data 2014. Swan, M. Crowdsourced Health
Research Studies: An Important Emerging Complement to Clinical
Trials in the Public Health Research Ecosystem. J Med Internet Res
2012, Mar;14(2):e46. Swan, M. Multigenic Condition Risk Assessment
in Direct-to-Consumer Genomic Services. Genet. Med. 2010,
May;12(5):279-88. Swan, M. Translational antiaging research.
Rejuvenation Res. 2010, Feb;13(1):115-7. Swan, M. Engineering Life
into Technology: the Application of Complexity Theory to a
Potential Phase Transition of Intelligence. Symmetry 2010, 2,
150:183. Source: http://melanieswan.com/publications.htm
3 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Future Studies &
Forecasting Toolkit Short term (0-5 yrs): insight and certainty
Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market
research Time orientation Outlier identification Technology
checklist Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity
Scenario planning Simulation Frameworks Wild-carding Longitudinal
studies Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill
Frymire
4 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 GPS for the Mind Exercise
Plot time orientation: certainty, probability, possibility
www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp1 Image: http://www.mindtime.com
Source: Fortunato, VJ and Furey, JT. The theory of MindTime: The
relationships between Future, Past, and Present thinking and
psychological well-being and distress. Personality and Individual
Differences. January 2011, 50(1), pp. 20-4.
http://www.miindtime.com certainty possibility probability
5 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Big Data Quantitative
Indicators Increasingly complex analysis tools for every level of
Internet-based activity Social Networks, Email, Photo-Sharing,
Info-Sharing # people ww online, # phones/smartphones, #IoT # daily
tweets, hourly YouTube volume, eBook sales MOOCs (Kahn Academy,
Coursera, etc.) Bitcoin (cybercurrencies) eLabor Marketplaces,
Ideas/IP Markets, Health Social Networks, Quantified Self
Problem-solving Communities (eteRNA, FOLDit, Kaggle) Influence,
Attention, Inention Measurement: Twitter, Klout, Peer Index,
ThinkUp
6 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Tweets per Day: 500m (200
bn/year) http://www.internetlivestats.com/twitter-statistics/ (4
pm)
Unprecedented Immediacy and Transmissibility 7 Prediction
Markets July 14, 2014 32.8 m (Mar 2014) 0.8 m (Nov 2012) Most
Retweets
BitCoin: Growth, Volatility, Robocoin ATMs 8 Prediction Markets
July 14, 2014 Source: http://www.coindesk.com/price/,
http://bitcoinatmmap.com Bitcoin could become the first trillion
dollar non-fiat currency Bitcoin is an open-source protocol
enabling the transmission of value across the Internet in the form
of a digital asset, digital currency, or payment mechanism; ia
decentralized peer-to-peer monetary system
9 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Prediction Markets
Definition Image: http://www.simExchange.com 1Source: Trepte, K. et
al. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets. MIT.
2009. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/53546 Prediction Markets
are a tool for collecting group opinion using market principles
Lots of sharable hidden information Prediction markets may beat
polls/experts in accuracy1
10 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Markets and Crowd
Intelligence Collective intelligence Markets Prediction Markets
Google+ Question networks (Quora, formspring) Crowdsourced labor
marketplaces Competitions (Kaggle, foldIT, eteRNA) Wikipedia,
Twitter Health Social Networks DIYscience
http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book Crowdfunding
(Kickstarter, Indiegogo) Resource allocation (Airbnb, Uber,
Gettaround) Group purchasing (Groupon) Reverse group purchasing
(Loopt u- deals, Ringleadr) Affinity capital P2P lending Gift
economy
11 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 History of Prediction
Markets Decision markets, idea futures, information markets, event
derivatives, virtual markets Long history of betting on events
Election betting, sports betting, stock markets Modern incarnation
last ~20 years 1988 Iowa Electronic Markets first market1 2002 US
DARPA terrorism futures debacle Main forms: enterprise and consumer
prediction markets Testbed for financial contracts Housing and
weather futures, carbon trading, movie futures Futarchy Notion of
using prediction markets in government policy 1Source:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/17/history-prediction-markets-timeline
Image: http://www.bookshift.com
12 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Prediction Markets Pricing
Details Price: based on probability of event occurrence Value:
leading indicator, expose hidden information Pay-off: monetary,
reputational, indirect Accuracy: better than conventional
forecasting1 1Source: Arrow, K.J. et al The Promise of Prediction
Markets Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa
Electronic Markets: 2008 US Democratic Convention Market Clinton
Obama Image:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg
Tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market
principles
13 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 US Congressional Control
for Nov. 2014 Source:
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Congress14.cfm
14 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Anatomy of a Re-Election
Prediction Market: Obama 2012 (July) Source: http://www.intrade.com
Blip: May 1, 2011, Osama bin Laden killed
15 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Real-time Prediction
Market: Obama 2012 Source: http://www.intrade.com Election Day:
November 7, 2014 4 pm EST Election Day: November 7, 2014 10 pm
EST
17 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Source: https://www.fairlay.com/ Bitcoin Prediction Markets White
Paper available on Github:
https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin/tree/master/docs Predictious,
Fairlay, Bitcoin Bull Bear
18 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 When to use Prediction
Markets Complexity (ecosystem) Multi-party value chain Uncertainty
Clear outcomes Market liquidity Diversity of opinion Prediction
Markets books
31 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Prediction Market Design
Structure Event outcome (win/loss) Market scoring (continuum) Time
frame Episodic or continuous Participants Anonymous users
Participation incentive Question design: (the question) What is
your opinion? (the feedback loop) Rate your certainty. What do you
think others will say? How accurately will others answer?
Calibration round(s) Image: http://www.consensuspoint.com
32 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Future of Prediction
Markets Public Prediction Markets Opinion capture as a standard
feature Activity Chiclets: Like, Vote Up/Down, +1, tweet, share,
comment, bookmark, opine Quality, Valence, Value/Interesting-ness
Two-way XML element Ubiquitous real-time polling Automatic markets
per interest profile Enterprise Prediction Markets &
Information Modulation BOL / ERP / supply chain integration Sales
and CRM integration Reputation: knowledge acuity ratings of
individuals become a valuable and personally-tradable currency
Accurate predictor, information steward
Image:http://www.tvrage.com/shows/id-23464
33 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Broader Context: Markets
are the Platform Types of Markets Resource allocation Exchange:
supply & demand meet Information (price) discovery Value
identification & attribution Utility creation Traditional
Markets Prediction Markets Affinity Capital Multicurrency Society
Automatic Markets Idea Management Marketplaces Scarcity Management
/ Abundance Injection (PSE) Roles of Markets Source: Swan, M. New
Banks, New Currencies and New Markets in a Multicurrency World:
Roadmap for a Post-Scarcity Economy by 2050, presented at Create
Futures IberoAmrica, Enthusiasmo Cultural, So Paolo Brazil, October
14, 2009. http://melanieswan.com/documents/economy_20.pdf
Economy2.0
34 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Resources
#PredictionMarkets @CassSunstein, @JustinWolfers
http://www.midasoracle.org http://www.ingenesist.com
http://torontopm.wordpress.com Prediction Market Industry
Association http://www.pmindustry.org Relevant Papers Prelec D. A
Bayesian truth serum for subjective data. Science. 2004 Oct
15;306(5695):462-6. Trepte, K. et al. Forecasting consumer products
using prediction markets. MIT. 2009.
http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/53546 Chang, W. et al.
Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated
agents. MIT. 2009. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/53097
35 Prediction Markets July 14, 2014 Prediction Markets Summary
Image: http://www.simExchange.com Prediction markets are a tool for
collecting group opinion using market principles
Questions? Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group
+1-650-681-9482 [email protected] www.melanieswan.com Slides:
http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
DIAMANDIS KURZWEIL Well, Ray, were still waiting for the jet pack
Futurism 2050 DIAMANDIS KURZWEIL Well, Ray, were still waiting for
the jet pack Futurism 2050 SU GPS for the Mind:
www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp1 SU Prediction Market:
gsp14.inklingmarkets.com Courage consists in agreeing to flee
rather than live tranquilly and hypocritically in false refuges
Gilles Deleuze, Anti-Oedipus: Capitalism and Schizophrenia