Sesti Energyfinalcorrect

SESTI results energy28 June 2011

BrusselsVictor van Rij

MinistryOCW/AWT

SESTI results energy

Victor van Rij Senior Stafmember Council for Science and Technology

28-6-2011Brussels

Scanning for emerging science and technology issues

Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities

THE ENORMOUS ENRGY OF THE SUN

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg



New Emerging Issues

• 1. Biomimics as leading principle for real renewable energy• 2. Renewables from the desert (DESERTEC)• 3. Hybrid nuclear technology, box of Pandora or salvation• 4. Deeper and further (mining) known and unknown risks• 5. The unknown risk of Hydrogen economy, the importance of sustainable

energy carriers.

• 6. Local production local consumption• 7. Smart saving and using• 8. Sustainable focused pricing• 9. The need for smart storage and smart distribution• 10. The unbearable risk of nuclear proliferation



The issues that were discussed

Bio-mimics as leading principle for real renewable energy

Renewables from the deserts (desertec)

Hybrid nuclear energy, box of Pandora or salvation

The unknown risk of Hydrogen economy , The importance of sustainable energy carriers

Deeper an further, known or unknown risks



The description of issues• Storyline of the issue, evidence base

• Impact

• Plausibility

• Novelty

• Drivers/inhibitors

• Desirability aspects

• Interests

• Emotional aspects

• Changeability / policy aspects

• Early warning Signals and Indicators



The Bio-mimics

leading principle renewable energy

ARTIFICIAL FOTOSYNTHESIS ??

NATURAL FOTOSYNTHESIS ENHACEMENTElysia chloroti

CHLOROPLAST

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/01/green-sea-slug/



Increase of photosynthesis ; the initial signal found

• Plea for Biomimics: Artificial photosynthesis to sequestrate C and to make fuel? H2 / Carbon Hydrates

• Using desert land to catch the sun with (artificial) vegetation

• Almost no need for materials that may be scarce or polluting

• Nearly sustainable, local and central energy provisions possible

General thought that came out of the workshop based on this:• Improve the efficiency and productivity of global vegetation &

agricultural photosynthesis (i.g. through re- greening desert lands, change land use , improve crops by biotech and cultivating)



CLIMATE CHANGE

The problem of additional CO2 in the C-cycle



The problem growing C-Fuel production

GROWING GLOBAL ENERGY NEED

Heath-transport-Industry8,4 Gtoe

ElectriCity

1,458 GToe

solar

C-fuel12,2 Gtoe

Non-C-energy1 Gtoe eq

wind

hydro

nuclear

Geo thermo

The present situation 2008

GeosphereBiosphere

Atmosphere

Tidal -wave

C-matC-fuel1,2 Gtoe

C-fuel11 Gtoe

1,5 Gtoe

Sun light

Fossil

Atmosphere and

hydrosphere

149 Gt C

7,3 Gt C

7,3 Gt C

Foodfor all

life

Carbon

Carbon

0,7 Gt eq C

1Gt?

0,7 Gt C

THE YEARLY CARBON FLUX 2008

148 Gt C

+ 0,7 Gt C

GeosphereBiosphere

148Gt C

Human food+ 0,5 Gt C

Sun light

Fossil

Atmosphere and

hydrosphere

149 Gt C + 8 Gt C

+ 1 Gt C

1 Gt C

Foodfor all

life

148 Gt C

Carbon

Carbon

2Gt?

+ 7 Gt C

SUNNY SCENARIO YEARLY CARBON FLUX

2050

148 Gt C

GeosphereBiosphere

Enhanced C Cycle

More non C-energy +

Electrification

2 - 3 Gt eq C

Human food

More sequestration

+ 7 Gt C

+ 0,7 Gt C

Heath-transport-Industry8,4 Gtoe

ElectriCity

2,5 GToe

solar

C-fuel11,0 Gtoe

Non-C-energy3 Gtoe eq

wind

hydro

nuclear

Geo thermo

The sunny scenario 2050

GeosphereBiosphere

Atmosphere

Tidal -wave

C-matC-fuel9,5 Gtoe

C-fuel1,5 Gtoe

3,0 Gtoe

Figure ES.1 North American carbon sources and sinks (million tons of carbon per year) in 2003. Height of a bar indicates a best estimate for net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the indicated element of the North American carbon budget. Sources add CO2 to the atmosphere; sinks remove it. Error bars indicate the uncertainty in that estimate, and define the range of values that include the actual value with 95% certainty.See Chapter 3 and Chapters 6-15 of this report for details and

discussion of these sources and sinks.

The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR) The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle



Increase fotosynthetic activity• The biocycle has to be enhanced, preferably on land

• The enhanced cycle has to be optimally tapped for food, energy and additional sequestration of C

• Change of ecosytems towards more productive ones (ig fertilising and watering desert and waste land - (but many problems to resolve: fertiliser need- water need – use of water systems ? Biodiversity aspects)

• Agro and forestry systems have to ameliorated in their their c-fixating properties, though the use of all available kowledge (on crop,soil, plant and eco system properties),

• New knowledge should be devloped to optimise C-productivity and optimal yielding for food, energy and sequestration from the whole system



Increase of photosynthesis; other aspects• Increased flow of CO2 if we use parts of the additional efficiency for

increased food & energy use of human production

• Reduction of the use of fossil fuels should for a large part come from the tapping of the enhancement of the present C cycle, what goes into the atmosphere should be taken up by the enhanced earth eco- and agro forestry system (but part should be fixed)

• On the long term development of artifical Fotosynthesis maybe an option, but still long time to go. Need for thought on type of fuel (ethanol, hydrogen? With respect to the non C-sources as wind solar nuclear) and planning of land use

• Use of carbo- materials should be prefered above energy consuming building material (german wooden mill)

CO 2 NETTO FLOW OF US REGIONS

GLOBAL BIOMASS PRODUCTION OF DIFFERENT ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Some ecosystems catch much more C- than others - the same applies for agricultural systems - smart choices in land use or even reforming ecosystems to more c-fixating properties should be considered



Increase of photosynthesis R&D implications

• Concentrated inter disciplinary research is needed to increase photosynthetic activity in existing eco-agricultural and forestry production and in non productive areas (deserts, toendra’s)

• There is a need for more integrated modeling of the energy and major connected substance flows of human activity and of the ecosystems

• Need for Knowledge on optimal harvesting of “food “ and C for energy and/or for sequestration without diminishing C- fixating capacity . Land use, crop selection, GMO, harvesting techniques,C- fixation techniques

• Concerns on Biodiversity, Nutrient cycle stress



Increase of photosynthesis Policy implications

• Agrobusiness model based on food production and C fixation

• Spatial policy and planning should take into account the C-fixation potential of land

• Choices have to be made for major fuel for the future

• BIO mass should have similar attention (scientific and technological) as solar and wind



Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/71/DESERTEC-Map_large.jpg



Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)the story

• DESERTEC exploits solar (and wind) energy from sun rich waste lands to develop the regions and to export to the energy hungry

• In 2050 Solar parks in Marocco will supply clean and cheap electricity to the Sahara supplying water purification and irrigation works

• High voltage DC lines will bring the electricity to Europe covering 15% of the electricity need



Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)the story

• Local development and relationships with Europe can both be enhanced at the same time

• The idea of DESERTEC is spreading to regions all over the world with similar win –win situations

• DESERTEC story seems till now a feel good story



Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)other aspect

• There may be serious material constraints for the material needed built the solar parks and the additional grid

• Dependency and vulnerability (centralized provisions)

• The facilities focus on electricity production although other carriers are not excluded

• There may be a trade off with the supply of gas from Russia (which is also used for elctricity) and or with nuclear plans



Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)policy aspects

• material constraints for the material needed to built the solar parks and the additional grid should be examined

• DESERTEC streamlines a lot of research around the use of solar (and wind) , perhaps the bio-line can also be included

• The trade off with the supply of gas from Russia (which is also used for electricity) and or with nuclear plans in Europe needs wider policy consideration

• Combining DESERTEC with increase of foto synthesis using the PV solar energy to create the conditions for vegetation



Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)policy aspects

• Political instability endangers DESERTEC idea but it may be applied within Europe as well (Spain, Italy)

• In the all energy discussions geo –political considerations are very important to take into account

• Globally the DESERTEC idea may have a very high impact on solar energy share



Hybrid nuclear energy, box of Pandora or salvation

University of Texas, Austin The US LIFE project



Hybrid nuclear energy, The Story

• Hybrids may be feasible in 20 yrs

• Nuclear fusion 20-30 yrs earlier than expected

• Getting rid of nuclear waste and arms

• 30 % to 60 % of US electricity nuclear in 2100

• Prolonging existing fission reactors



Hybrid nuclear energy ;Other aspects

• Feasibility, Accidents and safety (MIT critics)

• Fear for invisible threat

• Prolonging existing fission reactors

• Centralized energy production

• Interests , the present nuclears, military, the greens?



Hybrid nuclear energy, policy aspects

• New research development spin off to real fusion

• Safety seems key,( especially after the wild card of the Fukushima powerplant, which took place after the workshop)

• Investment choices

• Public debate



SESTI workshop energy emerging issues 29 november 2010

Background Paper for SESTI Workshop

on Cognitive Enhancement

The unknown risk of Hydrogen economy

how does H2 fit in these reactions



The unknown risk of Hydrogen economy ;the story (1)

• A hydrogen economy cannot exist without leakage to the atmosphere , hydrogen gas is lighter than air and goes to the upper Atmosphere and Stratosphere

• Hydrogen in the stratosphere is suspected to react with oxygen and ozone causing additional stratospheric clouding, this may influence the Ozon layer but also the climate (more reflection of sunlight in the upper layers)

• Studies are scarce and contradictory in their findings from increasing the Ozone hole to diminishing the Ozone hole, but agree upon cooling effectsSESTI workshop energy emerging issues 29 november 2010 Background Paper for SESTI Workshop on Cognitive Enhancement



The unknown risk of Hydrogen economy ;the story (2)

• It is generally accepted that fossil fuels should be replaced by energy carriers that are considered as more sustainable as hydrogen and electricity

• There is a danger that choices towards these carriers get framed , any question mark should be answered in a clear way before societies create path dependencies that are involved in the choices



The unknown risk of Hydrogen economy ;Other aspects

• The stratosphere comes more and more under pressure, the US and probably also other great powers of the world are continuously experimenting with airplanes that can fly in the higher atmosphere (based on hydrogen rich fuels)

• Next to this studies point to the fact that industrialisation in Tropical regions also brings many gases in the atmosphere that do not belong there, consequences are unknown



The unknown risk of Hydrogen economyPolicy implications

• Further research is needed to charter the possible risks of the different types of energy carriers, from the renewable perspective these are recycled carbohydrates from bio(mic) origin, hydrogen and electricity.

• For fossil fuels similar charters should be made on the different artificially adapted or processed types of gas , oil and coal.



Deeper and further known and unknown risks



Deeper and further known and unknown risks The story (1)

• Deep sea drilling has popped up the last decades after a century of land drilling and some decades of offshore drilling

• History proofs that drilling always contains risk of spills , also it is clear that closing oil wells can be very difficult Many areas on land are severely polluted causing water wells to become useless

• Sea spill effects on the short term are disastrous for sea life while long term effects are much more harder to study because of the travel that oils spills make through the sea.



Deeper and further known and unknown risks The story (2)

• The more further the more deeper the drilling takes place the more harder it seems to close wells that burst out

• Grave accidents with very large economic losses and enormous environmental disasters like the two incidents in the Gulf of Mexico seem not to influence the main strategy of oil companies

• This seems, or is ,illogic since the BP leak shows that oil companies may even become bankrupt in one day by there risk taking behavior.



Deeper and further known and unknown risksother aspects

• The behavior can be explained by the path dependency and the interrelated interests that have merged in the last century that make it impossible for oil companies to make real transitions to renewables

• What counts for the companies, counts also for countries that still develop plans and constructions as pipelines to remote areas where oil can be drilled or mined and where it may be even more difficult to close wells that grow out of control.



Deeper and further known and unknown risksPolicy implications

• Oil companies and countries should be encouraged strongly to develop clear plans on reducing their dependency on the remote wells and how they will enlarge their productivity in (real) renewables

• Independent research to consequences of oil spills should be undertaken,



07/12/11SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011

conference42Past

Workshop (experts/stakeholders)



Final conclusions for energy policy research

• Energy efficiency, C – cycle enhancement, and Electrification seem to be major challenges for a future “sustainable” energy policy. C-cycle enhancement should be a top priority

• Each energy choice brings its own predictable R&D and life cycle investments and “substance need and cycles” that need to be examined .

• Some energy choices seem to have more “disaster” risk , these risks should be fully covered in the business model and pricing

• There is a need for more integrated modeling of the energy and major connected substance flows of human activity and of the ecosystems

• Next to this additional knowledge should be built on socio- economic and geopolitical impact of all substance cycles.

