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© E
GIS
- E
RIC
BE
NA
RD
Bo Lind SGI
Transportforum Linköping 14 januari 2010
RIMAROCC: Risk Management for Roads in a Changing Climate
RIMAROCC
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RIMAROCC
To develop a common ERA-NET Road method for risk analysis and risk management for roads with regard to climate change in Europe.
The Rimarocc method is a matter of Organizing (e.g. who is responsible for what) – Analysing (e.g. risks and vulnerability) – and Prioritizing (e.g. options for non-acceptable risks).
- Partners :
SGI: (Coordinator) Swedish Geotechnical Institute (Sweden)
Egis: Engineering, Project Development, and motorway Infrastructure
Operations (France)
Deltares: Research and Engineering in Water, Soil and Infrastructure
(Netherlands)
NGI: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (Norway)
The Purpose of RIMAROCC
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RIMAROCC
Åsa Lindgren, SRA, SE, (contact person)
Geoff Richards, Highways Agency, UK
Alberto Compte, CEDEX, ES
Steering Group
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RIMAROCC
The RIMAROCC wp:s
WP2: Research Think Tank and necessary co-ordinations
WP 3:Climate scenarios and consequences on risk approach
WP 4: Risk analysisbased decision methodsfor road authorities
WP 5: Risk Management options; mitigationand/or emergency plans
WP1: Listening process to identify priority needs of clients/users
Focusing on the overall approach – identification, scoring, consequences, possible options
Focusing on comparisonbetween options
- Structural level- Section level- Network level- Regional level
WP 6: Dissimination– case studies
WP2: Research Think Tank and necessary co-ordinations
WP 3:Climate scenarios and consequences on risk approach
WP 4: Risk analysisbased decision methodsfor road authorities
WP 5: Risk Management options; mitigationand/or emergency plans
WP1: Listening process to identify priority needs of clients/users
Focusing on the overall approach – identification, scoring, consequences, possible options
Focusing on comparisonbetween options
- Structural level- Section level- Network level- Regional level
WP 6: Dissimination– case studies
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RIMAROCC
Function: expression of what the method needs to do (provide),
e.g. make it possible assess the risks
Design objectives: appreciation criteria or qualities, e.g.
compatible with existing methods
Systematic Value Engineering process
Designing the method
Existing methods
Design objectives
Functions
Designing the method
Existing methods Design objectives
Functions
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RIMAROCC
FUNCTIONS
Assess the risksF11. Define climate related hazardsF12. Identify risk factorsF13. Define level of acceptable risk..F17.
Manage the risksF21. Define structural solutions for roadsF22. Framework for to calculate costsF23. Framework to prioritize mitigation measures..F39.
DESIGN OBJECTIVES
D1. Compatible with existing methodsD2. Able to cope with climate change uncertainty D3. Consider specificities of European countriesD4. Both new road design and maintenance..D14.
Functions and Design objectives
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RIMAROCC
A Bibliographical Review
An overview of existing methods or tools for risk analysis and risk management for roads:
A survey including Germany, Ireland, France, Netherlands,
Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom
Particularly interesting
UK adaptation strategy
French GeRiCi-project
Dutch Deltares approach
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RIMAROCC
HAASM: The Highways Agency Adaptation Strategy Model (2008)
A Bibliographical Review – UK Experience
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RIMAROCC
Egis’ GERICI project: Risk Management Related to Climate Change for Infrastructures (2006)
A Bibliographical Review – French Experience
GIS
GERICI Synthesis
Identify unwanted events
Risk managementmethodology
Define specific threshold
acceptability by owner / operator
Analyse infrastructure
Generic analysis of
infrastructure vulnerabilities
Techniques : New
approaches and results of
research
Meteorological & climate change
databases
Infrastructures database
Simulations- section - network
Risk information map- alert- prevention plan
Capitalisation - REX - simulations
Updating of meteorological knowledge and climate change
GIS
GERICI Synthesis
Identify unwanted events
Risk managementmethodology
Define specific threshold
acceptability by owner / operator
Analyse infrastructure
Generic analysis of
infrastructure vulnerabilities
Techniques : New
approaches and results of
research
Meteorological & climate change
databases
Infrastructures database
Simulations- section - network
Risk information map- alert- prevention plan
Capitalisation - REX - simulations
Updating of meteorological knowledge and climate change
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RIMAROCC
Deltares’ GeoQ riskmanagement method: six risk management steps
A Bibliographical Review – Dutch Experience
1. Determine goal and collect
relevant data
2. Identify risks
3. Qualify and quantify risks
4. Take proper measures
5. Evaluate resulting riskprofile
6. Transfer to next phase
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RIMAROCC
Definitions
In this handbook definitions of important terms are taken from; ISSMGE TC32 (ISSMGE), FLOODsite 2005 (FLOODsite), PIARC C18 (PIARC) and ISO/FDIS 31000, e.g:
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RIMAROCC
Some methodological principles:
The proposed method is designed to be compatible, and to
operate in parallel with existing methods
Designed for road risk management at all operational levels
(structure, section, network, territory).
It consists of seven steps.
The Rimarocc Method
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk mitigation
6. Implemen-tation of
action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitali-zation
1. Context analysis
Communication
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RIMAROCC
The Risk Analysis/Management Approach
Key steps Sub-steps
1. Context analysis
1.1 Establish general context1.2 Establish appropriate context for particular application1.3 Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted for each particular application (structure, section, network, territory)
2. Risk identification2.1 Identify risk factors2.2 Identify vulnerabilities2.3 Identify possible consequences
3. Risk analysis
3.1 Risk analysis : qualitative aspects3.2 Establish risk scenarios3.3 Determine risk impact3.4 Evaluate occurrences
4. Risk evaluation
4.1 Evaluate quantitative aspects with appropriate analysis (CBA or others)4.2 Compare climate risk to other kinds of risks4.3 Determine which risks are acceptable
5. Risk mitigation
5.1 Identify options5.2 Appraise options5.3 Negotiate with funding agencies5.4 Elaborate action plan
6. Implementation of action plans
6.1 Develop action plan at each level of responsibility6.2 implement adaptation action plans
7. Monitor, re-plan and capitalize
7.1 Regular monitoring and review7.2 Re-plan in case of new data or delay in implementation7.3 Capitalization of return of experience on both climatic events and progress of implementation
Communication and gathering of information
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RIMAROCC
Key steps
Sub steps
Authorities in charge
Coordin. Particip. Specific.
1. Context analysis
1.1 Establish general context ”Risk Manager”
”Agency Board”
”Time and Resources”
1.2 Establish appropriate context for particular level
1.3 Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted for each particular level
1. Context analysis
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk mitigation
6. Implemen-tation of
action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitali-zation
1. Context analysis
Communication
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RIMAROCC
Criteria to assess the hazard Indicator unit
H1 Frequency of key climate conditions / past extreme events
x times per year
H2 Possible period of occurrence number of month per year
Criteria to assess the consequences
C1 Loss of safety of the road Number of death/injured/rescued
C2 Direct costs; costs for reconstruction Euro’s
C3 Unavailability of the road % of normal capacity% more traveling timenumber of days
C4 Indirect costs Euro’s
C5 Loss of confidence / image / prestige / political consequences
????
C6 Impact on the environment ????
Criteria to assess the vulnerability
S1 Speed of occurrence / forecast time hours / days
S2 Amount and type of information to road users ????
S3 Amount of knowledge of a hazard with related consequences
????
S4 Used design standards and type of maintenance age of design standard (year)last big maintenance (year)
1.3 Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted for each particular level
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RIMAROCC
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk mitigation
6. Implemen-tation of
action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitali-zation
1. Context analysis
Communication
The Rimarocc Method
2. Risk identification2.1 Identify risk factors2.2 Identify vulnerabilities2.3 Identify possible consequences
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RIMAROCC
2.1 Identify risk factors (hazards)
• The road structure approach (what can affect road system, e.g. tree near the road)
• Climate scenario approach (what are the effect of a changing climate, e.g. on a tree near the road)
seasonal and annual average temperaturemaximum temperature and number of consecutive hot days (heat waves)seasonal and annual average rainfall extreme rainfall events (heavy showers and long rain periods)drought (consecutive dry days)extreme heatsnowfallfog daysfrost (number of icy days)thaw (number of days with temperature zero-crossings)extreme wind speed (worst gales)sea level rise
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RIMAROCC
The climate events are weighted according to their importance for the road sector and the amount of change is marked by a relative scale from significant increase, ++, to significant decrease --.
(2.1) Climate Scenarios and Climate Change Impacts
Weight Unwanted climate event
Critical climateparameter
Amount of change compared to 1961-1990 period (++, +, +/-, -, --)
Availability of predictions:qualitative, quantitative or impossible
Certainty of predictions:likely, very likely, (virtually) certain
Geographicalresolution (grid size / resolution for which it can be used)
Time Horizon (when will it happen ?)
Available data / models
4 Extreme rainfall events (heavy showers and long rain periods)
Max. intensity in [mm/h] and [mm/24h]
Intensity: likely (+)Frequency: North likelySouth ?
Qualitative Likely 50 km (difficult tu use smaller grids)Resolution of 25 km – 12 km will soon be available
No statistical evidence of trends, but , but likely to be happening today
Regional models + local expertise
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RIMAROCC
Weight Unwanted climate event
Critical climateparameter
Amount of change compared to 1961-1990 period (++, +, +/-, -, --)
Availability of predictions:qualitative, quantitative or impossible
Certainty of predictions:likely, very likely, (virtually) certain
Geographicalresolution (grid size / resolution for which it can be used)
Time Horizon (when will it happen ?)
Available data[h1] [h2] / models
4 Annual, seasonal and periods ( ”wet spells”) average rainfall
Average amount [mm/ 3 months]
Sum.
Wint.
Quantitative Sum.
Wint. Main signal perceptible for 250 km grid, but can be refined locally
Already observed.
Global IPCC models
North
+/-
++ North
L VL
South
--*
- South
VL
L
4 Sea level rise (+ waves and storm surges)
Rise [m] ++ XXI Cent.:(0,2 to 0,6m)No ice capmelting (IPCC assumption)
QuantitativeQualitative if considering ice cap melting
> 0.2m is virtually certain in 2100
Global but not uniform (may vary according to sea basins)
Already observed (ice cap melting not within a century)
IPCC scenarios
(post-IPCC scenarios)
3 Maximum temperature and number of consecutive hot days (heat waves)
Average max. [T°C on 24h]Maximum [T°C]Heat wave duration [number of consecutive days], [hw/year]
++ XXI Cent.:Taver. Global: 1,8 to 4,0 °C (best estim. /scen.). South + Continent. > Nor.++ Even more for estremes++ 5 to 30 days
QuantitativeQuantitativeQuantitative
V. Certain in EuropeV. CertainVery likely
Main signal perceptible for 250 km grid, but can be refined locally, except specific case of cities (higher T°C) and coastal areas (lower T°C)
Already observed (figures available)
Global IPCC models
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RIMAROCC
Weight Unwanted climate event
Critical climateparameter
Amount of change compared to 1961-1990 period (++, +, +/-, -, --)
Availability of predictions:qualitative, quantitative or impossible
Certainty of predictions:likely, very likely, (virtually) certain
Geographicalresolution (grid size / resolution for which it can be used)
Time Horizon (when will it happen ?)
Available data / models
2 Drought (consecutive dry days)
Drought duration [number of consecutive days], [d/year]
++ over South. Eur.
Quantitative Very Likely South. Eur and Med.More uncertain in N Eur.
Has begun
2 Snowfall Max. snowfall in 24h [m/day]Snow duration at the ground [nb of days]
Int: +Freq: -Duration: --
QualitativeQuantitative
LikelyCertain
Extr. North EurWhole Eur
Has begun
2 Frost (number of icy days,Tmax<0°C and frost days, T drops below 0°C )
Minimum [T°C]Average [min. T°C on 24h]Frost duration [number of days/year]Frost index [frost penetration into the soil]
+++--
QuantitativeQuantitativeQuantitative
LikelyCertainCertain
Whole Eur.Whole Eur.Whole Eur.
Has begunDittoDitto
2 Thaw and frost (number of days with temperature zero-crossings)
Thaw days [number of days with 0°C crossings]
+ or – depending on the regions
Qualitative Certain in North. Eur.
+ North. and Cont. Eur.- South.
Has begun
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RIMAROCC
Weight
Unwanted climate event
Critical climateparameter
Amount of change compared to 1961-1990 period (++, +, +/-, -, --)
Availability of predictions:qualitative, quantitative or impossible
Certainty of predictions:likely, very likely, (virtually) certain
Geographicalresolution (grid size / resolution for which it can be used)
Time Horizon (when will it happen ?)
Available data / models
2 Extreme wind speed (worst gales) : extra tropical or convective systems induced
Max. speed [km/h]
+ in North-O Europe? elsewhere
Qualitative Likely in NorthPoor (unknown) in South.
500-1000 km grid (North shift of the storm tracks)
Not yet recorded (Vince storm not representative)
Global IPCC models
1 Fog days Fog days [number of days with fog]
? Not yet possible(local effects – vertical resolution)
Unknown Observedlocally(less pollution)
Climate Scenarios and Climate Change Impacts
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RIMAROCC
Critical climate variables Major risks to road infrastructure
Extreme rainfall events (heavy showers and long rain periods)
Flooding of roadways Road erosion, landslides and mudslides that damage roads Overloading of drainage systems, causing erosion and flooding Traffic hindrance and safety
Seasonal and annual average rainfall
Impacts on soil moisture levels, affecting structural integrity of roads, bridges, and tunnels Adverse impacts of standing water on the road base Risk of floods from runoff, landslides, slope failures, and damage to roads if changes in
precipitation pattern (e.g.: changes from snow to rain in winter and spring thaws)
Sea level rise Inundation of roads in coastal areas Erosion of road base and bridge supports Bridge scour Reduced clearance under bridges Extra demands on infrastructure when used as emergency/evacuation roads
Maximum temperature and number of consecutive hot days (heat waves)
Concerns regarding pavement integrity, e.g. softening, traffic related rutting, embrittlement (cracking), migration of liquid asphalt.
Thermal expansion on bridge expansion joints and paved surfaces Impacts on landscaping
Drought (consecutive dry days)
Susceptibility to wildfires that threaten transportation infrastructure directly Susceptibility to mudslides in areas deforested by wildfires Consolidation of substructure with (unequal) settlements as a consequence More generation of smog
Climate parameters impacting roads
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RIMAROCC
Snowfall Traffic hindrance and safety Snow removal costs Snow avalanches closing roads or striking vehicles
Frost (number of icy days) Traffic hindrance and safety Ice removal costs
Thaw (number of days with temperature zero-crossings)
Thawing of permafrost, causing subsidence of roads and bridge supports (cave-in) Decreased utility of unimproved roads that rely on frozen ground for passage
Extreme wind speed (worst gales)
Threat to stability of bridge decks Damage to signs, lighting fixtures and supports
Fog days Traffic hindrance and safety More generation of smog
Critical climate variables Major risks to road infrastructure
Climate parameters impacting roads
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RIMAROCC
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk mitigation
6. Implemen-tation of
action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitali-zation
1. Context analysis
Communication
Risk description
probability consequence RiskH1 H2 tot C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C
6tot
Risk A 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2,5 5
Risk B 1 2 1,4 2 2 2 2 1 1 1,7 2,4
Risk C 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 1,5 3
Risk description risk
Vulnerability (Sensitivity)S1 S2 S3 S4 tot
Risk A
Risk B
Risk C
3. Risk analysis
3.1 Risk analysis : qualitative aspects3.2 Establish risk scenarios3.3 Determine risk impact3.4 Evaluate occurrences
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RIMAROCC
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk mitigation
6. Implemen-tation of
action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitali-zation
1. Context analysis
Communication
4.1 Evaluate quantitative aspects with appropriate analysis (CBA or others)4.2 Compare climate risk to other kinds of risks4.3 Determine which risks are acceptable
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RIMAROCC
(4.1 – 4.3) Level of acceptable risk
Some thoughts:
A risk, which everyone impacted is prepared to accept
Use of F-N curves: express probability versus consequences e.g. probability of causing number of death/cost/cars involved/etc versus the number of death/etc.
F-N curves and risk matrices are related
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk treatment
6. Implementatio
n of action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitalization
1. Context analysis
Communication
interim risk criterion recommendation for natural hillsides in Hong Kong
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RIMAROCC
Level strongly depends on: voluntary – involuntary familiarity – unfamiliarity personal involvement etc.
Three approaches: after analysis: determination with output cba before analysis: determination of objectives combination
determination of “musts” and “whishes” before analysisevery alternative should satisfy the “musts”use “whishes” to determine best option
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk treatment
6. Implementatio
n of action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitalization
1. Context analysis
Communication
(4.1 – 4.3) Level of acceptable risk
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RIMAROCC
Cost benefit analysis (cba)
Determine expected costs for occurence of unwanted events
Determine expected costs for different measures
Determine the optimal strategy (most efficient)
Cost effectiveness analysis (cea)
Determine requirements to meet
Determine (if necessary) measures that satisfy requirements
Choose measure that is most cost effective
Multi criteria analysis (mca)
Determine (if necessary) measures that satisfy requirements
Determine (weighed) criteria to assess different measuresone criterium can deal with costs
Score measures on criteria
Choose optimal strategy
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk treatment
6. Implementatio
n of action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitalization
1. Context analysis
Communication
(4.1 – 4.3) Level of acceptable risk
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RIMAROCC
Feedback loop
3. Risk analysis
4. Risk evaluation
5. Risk mitigation
6. Implemen-tation of
action plans
2. Risk identification
7. Monitoring, review,
capitali-zation
1. Context analysis
Communication
Identify possible adaptation measures for the non acceptable risks.
Threshold capacity: (also prevention capacity)
Coping capacity: (also damage reduction capacity)
Recovery capacity: (e.g. reconstruction, emergency funds)
Adaptive capacity: (e.g. flexibility to change construction ower time).
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RIMAROCC
In short:
The proposed method is a cyclic process to continuously improve the
performance and capitalise on the experiences
It starts with an analysis of the general context, where risk criteria are
established, and ends up with a reflective step where the experiences and
results are documented and made available for the road organisation
In practice the steps are not always totally separated. There can be work
going on in several steps at the same time – but it is very important that
the logic structure is kept
There are feedback loops from each step to the previous ones and also a
marked loop from the last step as a reflection and as part of the cyclic
process
The permanent communication with stakeholders, external experts and
others is very important (marked as green arrows throughout the whole
process)
The Risk Analysis/Management Approach
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RIMAROCC
Refine the risk analysis/management approach
Implement it on four different geographical and operational scales (structure, section, network, territory), with feedbacks to refine the methodological approach
Dissemination (reporting + workshop)
RIMAROCC Next Steps
Dead line: September 2010 …
