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Ranking Performance: the impact on transport policy
«The founding father of the Mobility Academy»
Platform for future-oriented debatesThink TankFurther Education„Better Mobility with Less Risks“
«Fields and parameters impacting on transport»
Climate Change
European policy NationalPolicies
Local/regional policies
Traffic systemmanagement
DemographyEconomicsInvestments
Internalisation of external costs
Mobility View
Power Train
Energy supply
Work
Supply strategiesMobility services
Society andlifestyles
Technology, innovations
Politics
Economic, spatial, and demographic development
Following IFMO 2007
Trendscanning
5
Retrombilität
„How good is transport in Switzerland?“
Regular RankingsIn partnership with other „Lead Agencies“Commuicated via different electronic formats (blogs, podcasts, etc.)
How successful have we been in reducing road accidents?
For CH: Minus 50% every 10 years:
– 2010: 300– 2020: 150– 2030: 75– 2040: 38– 2050: 19
EU Road Safety Target: Even the good can still be better
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Fran
ce
Luxe
mbourg
Belgium
Portug
al
Switzerl
and
Sweden
Netherl
ands
Denmark
German
yLa
tvia
Austria
Spain
Norway
Italy*
Estonia
Greece
Finlan
dSlov
akia
U.K.
Sloven
iaIre
land
Poland
Hun
gary
Czech
Rep
ublic
Cyp
rus Malta
Lithu
ania
Drink DrivingSpeedingSeat Belt Wearing and Seat Belt RemindersAgeing SocietyDivided RoadsCapitols
Steps of Engagement
time
Engagement
Science
Champions
Political Leaders
Society at large
Can benchmarking replace legislation?
„A non mandatory global automotive fueleconomy target of 140 gCO2/km for passenger cars
should be adopted; Such a global fuel economy targetcould be used as an international benchmark to assessprogress in the fuel efficiency of the global fleet of new
motor vehicles.“
Which country has the most sustainable transport system?
11
Ecological, social and economic indicators
12
Source: VTPI, 2008
«The art of setting a target/developing a vision»
Measure Forecasting BackcastingPhilosophy • Justification of policies
• Determinism/causal chains• Exploring the future• Causilities/intentions
Perspective • Dominant Trends• Probabilities• Marginal Changes• Matching current trends
• The need to solve a problem• Desired future• Considering human choice• Strategic decisions
Approach • Extrapolation• Elasticities
• Idenfication of likely futures• Analysing the conditions
Method • Econometric Models• Mathematical Algorythms
• Partial extrapolations• Normative/dynamic models• Delphi/Expert interviews
Nach VIBAT 2006
Example: European Road Safety target
Example: Swedish Vision Zero
Mobility 2030 according to the WBCSD: goals but no targets
1. Conventional emissions should not constitute a significant public health concern
2. Limit GHG emissions down to sustainable levels3. Significantly reduce the number of deaths and injuries4. Reduce transport-related noise5. Mitigate congestion6. Narrow the “mobility opportunity divides”7. Preserve and enhance the mobility opportunities
Transport by 2050: The Good Mobility Index
1. Road Safety: minus 50% every decade
2. Air pollution: zeronising conventional emissions
3. GHG-emissions: flipping the coin – from 95% to 5%
4. Energy efficiency: 0,1kWh/km or better
5. Economic efficiency: “how many pkm/€”
6. Health: 50% of all trips below 3km human co-powered
7. Space consumption: capping daily distances at current levels
Good Mobility: The Basic Formula
Transport Volume [pkm]
16
GHG-Emissions [t CO2] + Deaths + Infrastructure Investment [€] GM =
Ecologicalsustainability
Socialsustainability
Economicsustainability
Good (Road) Mobility
Transport VolumeR [pkm]
17
GHG-EmissionsR [t CO2] + DeathsR + Infrastr. Inv. & Maint. R[€] GMR =
25 €/t 1.000.000€/death €sustainability
[pkm/€]
GMIR – A first approximation
18
GMIR – Are infrastructure costs too high in Switzerland?
19
GMIR – Are GHG-Emissions and deaths undervalued?
20
When do rankings have an impact?
• Get the scientists to agree• Link the rankings to a target• Paint a picture of tomorrow• Engage society• Involve the Champions and encourage the „Loosers“• Identify and Confront those resposible/in charge• Talk about it a lot• Get the timing right• Propose measures (legislation, technolgies etc.)• Continue...
