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Securing India’s energy future
Anil Kakodkar
IIM, Bangalore, January 4, 2012
India alone would need around 40% of present global electricity generation to be added to reach average 5000 kWh per capita electricity generation
World OECD Non-OECD India India (developing world) of our dream
Population (billion) 6.7 1.18 5.52 1.2 1.6 (stabilised)
Annual av. per capita ~2800 ~9000 ~1500 ~675 5000Electricity (kWh)
AnnualElectricityGeneration 18.8 10.6 8.2 0.811 8.0 (trillion kWh)
Carbon-di-oxideEmission 30 13 17 1.7 ?(billion tons/yr)
Securing energy for India’s future is a major challenge
WHILE WE MUST MAKE FULL USE OF ALL
AVAILABLE ENERGY RESOURCES ONLY
THORIUM AND SOLAR ENERGY IS SUSTAINABLE IN
THE LONG RUN(FUSION ENERGY NOT CONSIDERED
FOR THE PRESENT)
Number of years a domestic non-renewable energy source (as known today) can last at 5000 kWh/capita
electricity consumption in India (8 trillion units)
Coal Hydro-carbon Uranium Uranium Thorium once-through recycle
11.5 ---- 0.36 18.5 >170
Electricity generation potential from renewable sources in India ( as fraction of
8 trillion units)
Hydro Other renewables solar(wind+biomass)
0.075 0.0225 1.0**Would need ~45,000 sq.km which corresponds to a fourth of barren and uncultivable land in India
Non- renewable
Renewable
. Global average temperature over last one and a half century showing a more or less steady increase over the last fifty years or so. The fluctuations and their cycles can be correlated with various events like solar cycles
We do not know how close we are to the
tipping point. However we need to
act now to secure survival of our future
generations.
Incidentally both nuclear and solar
cause least carbon-di-oxide emission
Stage 1:Since Thorium does not have a naturally occurring fissile content, one has to begin nuclear energy program with Uranium.
Stage 2:For faster growth, plutonium breeding in fast reactors is necessary
Stage 3:After generation capacity is sufficiently enlarged through fast reactors, Thorium can sustain the generation capacity with a wide range of choices, lower minor actinide burden and greater proliferation resistance
Three Stage Indian Nuclear Power Programme
Stage – I Stage – I PHWRsPHWRs• 18 – Operating (4460 MWe)18 – Operating (4460 MWe)• 4– 700 MWe units under 4– 700 MWe units under construction (2800 Mwe) construction (2800 Mwe) •Several 700 MWe units Several 700 MWe units plannedplanned LWRsLWRs• 2 --BWRs Operating (320 2 --BWRs Operating (320 MWe)MWe)• 2 -- VVERs under 2 -- VVERs under construction (2000 Mwe)construction (2000 Mwe)• Several LWR Units plannedSeveral LWR Units planned
90
7975
84 84 8690 91
8589
8382
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
Ava
ilabi
lity
Stage - IIStage - II Fast Breeder ReactorsFast Breeder Reactors•40 MWth FBTR - 40 MWth FBTR - Operating since Operating since 19851985•Technology Objectives realisedTechnology Objectives realised•500 MWe PFBR- 500 MWe PFBR-
Under Construction Under Construction •Pre-project activities for two more Pre-project activities for two more FBRs approvedFBRs approved•TOTAL POWER TOTAL POWER POTENTIAL POTENTIAL 530 GWe 530 GWe (including (including 300 GWe with 300 GWe with Thorium)Thorium)
No additional mined uranium is No additional mined uranium is needed for this scale upneeded for this scale up
Stage - IIIStage - III Thorium Based ReactorsThorium Based Reactors
• 30 kWth KAMINI- Operating30 kWth KAMINI- Operating
• 300 MWe AHWR-300 MWe AHWR- ready for deploymentready for deployment
• Availability of ADS can enable early introduction of Thorium on a large scaleENERGY POTENTIAL IS ENERGY POTENTIAL IS VERY LARGEVERY LARGE
World class performance
Globally Advanced Technology
Globally Unique
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (
GW
e)
Year
Strategy for long-term energy security
LWR import: 40 GWePeriod: 2012-2020
The deficit is practically wiped out in 2050
Projected requirement*
Hydroelectric
Non-conventional
Coal domestic
Hydrocarbon
Nuclear (Domestic 3-stage programme)
LWR (Imported)
FBR using spent fuel from LWR
* - Assuming 4200 kcal/kg
*Ref: “A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in India”, document 10, August 2004, DAE
Energy Source Death Rate (deaths per TWh)
Coal world average 161 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)Coal China 278Coal USA 15Oil 36 (36% of world energy)Natural Gas 4 (21% of world energy)Biofuel/Biomass 12Peat 12Solar (rooftop) 0.44 (less than 0.1% of world energy)Wind 0.15 (less than 1% of world energy)Hydro 0.10 (Europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy)Hydro - world including Banqiao) 1.4 (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead)Nuclear 0.04 (5.9% of world energy)
http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html
Risks with nuclear energy are the least
IN CASE OF CHERNOBYL
ESTIMATED CONSEQUENCESAN ESTIMATE IN 2006—93,000 WILL DIE DUE TO CANCER UP TO THE YEAR2056ANOTHER ESTIMATE IN 2009---985,000 DIED TILL 2004
ACTUAL CONSEQUENCETOTAL DEATHS;62 (47 PLANT, 15 DUE TO THYROID CANCER )ACUTE RADIATION SYNDROME;134 (OUT OF WHICH 28 HAVE DIED)INCREASED CANCER INCIDENCE; AMONG RECOVERY WORKERSTHYROID CANCER; (CURABLE, WAS AVOIDABLE) 6000 ( 15 HAVE DIED)
Projected health consequences from low doses to large sections of population are questionable
Driven by conservative
linear no threshold
principle (which is not substantiated
surveys in high natural radiation
background areas) we tend to create avoidable trauma
in public mind
Waste management challenge can be effectively met through recycle
There is already a large used uranium fuel inventory (~270,000 tons as per WNA estimate)
While the spent fuel would be a sufficiently large energy
resource if recycled, its permanent disposal is in my view an unacceptable security and safety risk (plutonium mine?)
We need to adopt ways to liquidate the spent fuel inventory through recycle
France today recycles entire spent fuel arising. Recycle is a credible option.
Development of Partitioning and Transmutation technologies can in principle effectively address long term waste management challenge.
The Indian Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR), a quick, safe, secure and proliferation resistant
solution for the energy hungry world AHWR is a 300 MWe vertical pressure tube type, boiling light water cooled and heavy water moderated reactor (An innovative configuration that can provide low risk nuclear energy using available technologies)
AHWR can be configured to accept a range of fuel types including LEU, U-Pu , Th-Pu , LEU-Th and 233U-Th in full core
AHWR Fuel assemblyAHWR Fuel assembly
Bottom Tie Plate
Top Tie Plate
Water Tube
Displacer Rod
Fuel Pin
Major design objectives
Significant fraction of Energy from Thorium
Several passive features 3 days grace period No radiological impact
Passive shutdown system to address insider threat scenarios.
Design life of 100 years.
Easily replaceable coolant channels.
AHWR300-LEU provides a robust design against external as well as internal threats, including insider malevolent acts. This feature contributes to strong security of the reactor through implementation of technological solutions.
Reactor Block Components
AHWR 300-LEU is a simple 300 MWe system fuelled with LEU-Thorium fuel, has advanced passive safety features,
high degree of operator forgiving characteristics, no adverse impact in public domain, high proliferation
resistance and inherent security strength.
Peak clad temperature hardly
rises even in the extreme condition of
complete station blackout and failure
of primary and secondary systems.
14
PSA calculations for AHWR indicate practically zero probability of a serious impact in public domain
Plant familiarization & identification of design aspects important to severe accident
Plant familiarization & identification of design aspects important to severe accident
PSA level-1 : Identification of significant events with large contribution to CDF
PSA level-1 : Identification of significant events with large contribution to CDF
Level-2 : Source Term (within Containment) Evaluation through Analysis
Level-2 : Source Term (within Containment) Evaluation through Analysis
Release from Containment Release from Containment
Level-3 : Atmospheric Dispersion With Consequence Analysis
Level-3 : Atmospheric Dispersion With Consequence Analysis
Level-1, 2 & 3 PSA activity block diagramLevel-1, 2 & 3 PSA activity block diagram
Variation of dose with frequency exceedence(Acceptable thyroid dose for a child is 500 mSv)
Iso-Dose for thyroid -200% RIH + wired shutdown system unavailable (Wind condition in January on
western Indian side)
Contribution to CDF
SWS: Service Water System
APWS: Active Process Water System
ECCS HDRBRK: ECCS Header Break
LLOCA: Large Break LOCA
MSLBOB: Main Steam Line Break Outside Containment
SWS63%
SLOCA15%
10-3 10-2 10-1 100
10-14
10-13
10-12
10-11
10-10
Fre
qu
ency
of
Exc
eed
ence
Thyroid Dose (Sv) at 0.5 Km
1 mSv 0.1 Sv 1.0 Sv 10 Sv
10-
14
10-
13
10-
12
10-
11
10-
10
238Pu 3.50 %
239Pu 51.87
%
240Pu 23.81
%
241Pu 12.91
%
242Pu 7.91 %
9.54 %
41.65 %
21.14 %
13.96 %
13.70 %
232U 0.00 %
233U 0.00 %
234U 0.00 %
235U 0.82 %
236U 0.59 %
238U 98.59
%
STRONGER PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU
Much lower Plutonium production.
Plutonium in spent fuel contains lower fissile fraction, much higher 238Pu content which causes heat generation & Uranium in spent fuel contains significant 232U content which leads to hard gamma emitters.
The composition of the fresh as well as the spent fuel of AHWR300-LEU makes the fuel cycle inherently proliferation resistant.
Uranium in spent fuel contains about 8% fissile isotopes, and hence is suitable for further energy production through reuse in other reactors. Further, it is also possible to reuse the Plutonium from spent fuel in fast reactors.
0.02 %
6.51 %
1.24 %
1.62 %
3.27 %
87.35 %
Modern LWR
AHWR300-LEU
Nuclear power with greater proliferation
resistance
Enrichment Plant LEU
Thermal reactors
Safe &Secure
ReactorsFor ex. AHWR
LEU Thorium fuel
Reprocess Spent Fuel Fast
Reactor
Recycle
ThoriumReactorsFor ex. Acc. Driven MSR
Recycle
Thorium
Thorium
Uranium
MOX
LEU-Thorium
233UThorium
Thorium
For growth in nuclear
generation beyond thermal reactor
potential
Present deploymentOf nuclear power
CHALLENGES IN SOLAR TECHNOLOGY
Drive capital costs down
Low cost energy storage systems
Solar biomass hybrids
Solar thermal photovoltaic hybrids
Large solar thermal systems not dependent on availability of water
Technology initiatives1.Higher efficiency / non-toxic PV materials2.High temperature photovoltaics3.Self cleaning abrasion resistant surfaces4.Recycle of Carbon-di-oxide to fluid hydrocarbon substitutes5. ---------------
GREATER SHARE FOR NUCLEAR IN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
REPLACE FOSSIL HYDRO- CARBON IN A PROGRESSIVE MANNER
RECYCLE CARBON- DIOXIDE DERIVE MOST OF PRIMARY ENERGY THROUGH SOLAR & NUCLEAR
Sustainable development of energy sector Transition to Fossil Carbon Free Energy Cycle
Fossil Energy Resources
Nuclear Energy Resources
Hydrogen
ENERGY CARRIERS
(In storage or transportation)
• Electricity
• Fluid fuels
(hydro-carbons/ hydrogen)
Biomass
WASTE• CO2
• H2O
• Other oxides and products
Nuclear Recycle
Sustainable Waste Management Strategies
CO2
Sun
Urgent need to reduce use of fossil carbon in a progressive manner
chemical reactor
CO2
CH4 FluidHydro carbons
Electricity
Electricity
Carbon/Hydrocarbons
Other recycle modes
Thank you
STRONGER PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU
MUCH LOWER PLUTONIUM PRODUCTIONMuch Higher 238Pu & Lower Fissile Plutonium
Reduced Plutonium generation
MODERN LWR
AHWR300-LEU
238Pu239Pu
240Pu
242Pu
241Pu
238Pu 3.50 %239Pu 51.87 %240Pu 23.81 %241Pu 12.91 %242Pu 7.91 %
238Pu 9.54 %239Pu 41.65 %240Pu 21.14 %241Pu 13.96 %242Pu 13.70 %
High 238Pu fraction and low fissile content of Plutonium
The French N4 PWR is considered as representative of a modern LWR.. The reactor has been referred from “Accelerator-driven Systems (ADS) and Fast Reactor (FR) in Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycles”, OECD (2002)
The composition
of the fresh
as well as the
spent fuel of
AHWR300-LEU
makes the
fuel cycle
inherently
proliferation
resistant.
MODERN LWR
AHWR300-LEU
232U 0.00 %233U 0.00 %234U 0.00 %235U 0.82 %236U 0.59 %238U 98.59 %
232U 0.02 %233U 6.51 %234U 1.24 %235U 1.62 %236U 3.27 %238U 87.35 %
232U233U234U
236U
235U
238U
Presence of 232U in uranium from spent fuel
Uranium in the spent fuel contains about 8% fissile isotopes, and hence is suitable to be reused in other reactors. Further, it is also possible to reuse the Plutonium from spent fuel in fast reactors.