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Het ontwikkelen van relevante toekomst scenario's waarbinnen te ontwikkelen diensten mogelijk ontwikkeld worden, kunnen bijdragen aan inzicht bij het maken van strategische keuzes. Het eerste H-Lab van The Future Now richt zich op Scenario's voor de Mediaindustrie.
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Scenario Planning: a form of
strategic conversation
The What and How of scenario planning
Timber Haaker ([email protected])
The purpose of looking at the future is to disturb the present
“Change is the only constant”
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now
2002 2012
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now
Those who can’t adapt disappear
..no need to know the future, but to be prepared for it (Pericles)
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now
What is a (future) scenario?
• “.. a narrative or visual about a possible future environment of a company or industry”
• “… based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships”
• “… not just a “story” but also provides insight into a road to the future”
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now
Selfregulation
…
Law & orderStrict security
measures
…
The public self
…
Reputationis king
concern
No regulation Strictrules
Voorbeeld: 2020 media futures (‘what media may look like in the year 2020’)
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now Source: www.2020 mediafutures .ca
De waarde van Scenario Planning
• Creeert een gedeeld bewustzijn van toekomstige business environment
• Inspireert bij het formuleren van business en IT strategieen
• Maakt anticiperen op verandering en What if? Analyses mogelijk
• Helpt om business models, business strategien robuuster te maken
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now
“Misalignment between an organization and its environment has been recognised as a major cause of corporate death”
Het hoe van scenario planning
Future scenarios: methodology
Drivers of Change
Basic Trends Key Uncertainties
Multiple scenarios
• Trends en onzekerheden• social and market trends,
• technology developments,
• regulatory environment,
• industry structure and competition
• ….
Future scenarios: ontwikkel proces
Identify relevant developments
Identify relevant developments
Identify key uncertainties
Identify key uncertainties
Choose scenario axes
Choose scenario axes
Derive environment
scenarios
Derive environment
scenarios
Trends and uncertainties in
LegislationSociety/users
BusinessTechnology
Uncertain developments with
high impact on intended system
Two key uncertainties with two outcomes to
create four different scenarios
Find plausible outcomes of all key uncertainties and derive scenario
narratives
Hollywood Heaven
heterogeneous homogeneous
Technical interoperability
high
low
acceptance
Free Fight Guided Economy
Local Heroes
Guided economy:
Business restricts interoperability
Piracy, low content value
‘Content industry has failed to achieve a valuable experience, but that personal content exchange has lived up to its expectations’
FREE FIGHT:
Very limited interoperability (some codecs)
Piracy, many local business structures
‘Business has not been able to achieve a content experience that people are willing to pay for’
HOLLYWOOD HEAVEN:
Excellent interoperability (codecs, DRM, devices)
People easily control and exchange content
‘Business has succeeded in providing valuable, easy to use content experiences to customers’
LOCAL HEROES:
Limited interoperability (codecs yes, DRM no)
Legal environment supports fair business.
‘Industry has succeeded in providing content experiences. However, users may have to put in considerable effort in pursuit of these experiences’
Guided economy:
Business restricts interoperability
Piracy, low content value
‘Content industry has failed to achieve a valuable experience, but that personal content exchange has lived up to its expectations’
FREE FIGHT:
Very limited interoperability (some codecs)
Piracy, many local business structures
‘Business has not been able to achieve a content experience that people are willing to pay for’
HOLLYWOOD HEAVEN:
Excellent interoperability (codecs, DRM, devices)
People easily control and exchange content
‘Business has succeeded in providing valuable, easy to use content experiences to customers’
LOCAL HEROES:
Limited interoperability (codecs yes, DRM no)
Legal environment supports fair business.
‘Industry has succeeded in providing content experiences. However, users may have to put in considerable effort in pursuit of these experiences’
degree of uncertainty
impact
low high
low
high1
34
2
Stap 1: definieer relevante trends en onzekerheden onzekerheden
Key uncertainty
Description Outcomes
Legislation How restrictive will legislation be? Strict vs laissez faire
Enforcement How strict will enforcement of legislation be?
Strict vs laissez faire
User demand To what extend do people want to use second screen applications?
Unrelated activities vs complementary
Revenue models
What will be the prevailing revenue models for content exchange?
User is paying vs provider or 3rd party is paying
Interoperability To what extend will standards and interoperability emerge?
Heterogeneous vs homogeneous
Stap 2,3: score factors op impact en onzekerheid; kies scenario assen
Mate van onzekerheid
impact
low high
low
high1
34
2
Stap 4: definieer en beschrijf scenarios
• Local Heroes - Business has succeeded in providing valuable content experiences, but users have to put in considerable effort
• Hollywood Heaven - Business has succeeded in providing valuable, easy to use content experiences to customers.
• Guided Economy - Content industry has failed to provide a valuable experience, but personal content exchange is thriving
• Free Fight - Business has not been able to provide a content experience that people are willing to pay for.
Hollywood Heaven
heterogeneous homogeneous
Interoperability
high
low
acceptance
Free Fight Guided Economy
Local Heroes
Scenarios en de cases
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now
Verbinden van cases met toekomst scenarios
• A use scenario is robust if it is feasible within all four future scenarios, i.e. the intended system functions are compatible with the assumptions underlying all future scenarios.
Scenario axis 2
Scenario 2
Outcome 1 Outcome 2Scenario
axis 1
Outcome 1
Outcome 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Generate robust set
of use scenarios
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now
Contact
Timber Haaker Principal [email protected]: 053 485 03 48m: 06 511 982 80 @timberhaaker
Meer voorbeelden
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now Source: World Economic Forum
De zorgmarkt in 2020
Eerste H-Lab The Future Now Source: De zorgmarkt in 2020, ATOS Consulting
Scope: engagement
Scope:instrumenteel
Value generation:social
Value generation:corporate
Verbondenheid van context:
los
Value generation:social
Value generation:corporate
Verbondenheid van context:geintegreerd
