Upload
frost-sullivan
View
4.006
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Rejuvenating a Mature Industry – A Snapshot of the European Transformer and Switchgear Market
Vikas Ravindran, Team LeadVikas Ravindran, Team Lead
Energy & Power
19th April 2011
Focus Points
• Scope of the study
• Technology and component overview
• Market Overview
• Industry Challenges
• Force Field Analysis of Drivers and Restraints
• Revenue Forecast – Transformers & Switchgears
3
• Porter’s Five Forces
• Tier and Market Share Analysis
• Regional Hot Stops and Emerging Geographies
• Summary of Key findings
• The scope of the study includes Western Europe, as detailed in the
map below. The total market forecast is developed for all European
countries included in the scope.
• Detailed analysis is conducted on the following eight
countries/regions: Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,
Benelux, Scandinavia, Rest of Europe (Austria, Greece, the
Republic of Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland).
• The above countries are selected based on the size of the market
and upcoming opportunities.
Geographical Scope Technology Scope
Power transformers
Distribution transformers
Industrial Transformers
Isolation Transformers
Instrument Transformers
Scope and Definitions
4M675-14
Countries within the scope of
the study and analysed in detail
Countries within the scope of
the study, not analysed in detail
Countries not within the scope
of the study
High Voltage Switchgear
Medium Voltage Switchgear
Low Voltage Switchgear
Not included into the study scope
Included into the study scope
Other Metrics
• The base year for the study is 2009
• The forecast period is 2010-2016
• The study period is 2006-2016
• All prices quoted in the study are in US Dollars ($) unless otherwise
specified
Technology and Component Overview
• Technologies
• Laminated Core
• Torodial
• Autotransformer
• Stray Field transformer
• Polyphase transformer
• Resonant transformer
• Ferrite Core
• Oil cooled transformer
• Cast resin transformer
• Isolating transformer
Types of Transformers TechnologiesTypes of Transformers Technologies
• Oil circuit breakers
• SF6 circuit breakers
• Vacuum circuit breakers
• Air circuit breakers
Types of SwitchgearTypes of Switchgear
5M5B8-14
• Isolating transformer
ApplicationsApplications
• Substation
• Industries
• Commercial
• Switchgear market is in its mature phase with slow growth
• Increased focus on renewable energy sources, especially off-shore wind farms, act as a major driver. With the advent of smart grid, switchgear manufacturers are presented with new market opportunities.
• Recent economic downturn as well as price based competition is slowing down the growth of switchgear.
Market Overview
Transformers
• Power & Distribution transformers constitute close to 70 percent of the total transformers sales in Europe.
• Increased focus on interconnection of grids is driving the need for efficient transmission technologies
• Distribution transformers market has suffered a setback owing to a slowdown in the construction market.
• Power & Distribution transformers constitute close to 70 percent of the total transformers sales in Europe.
• Increased focus on interconnection of grids is driving the need for efficient transmission technologies
• Distribution transformers market has suffered a setback owing to a slowdown in the construction market.
Switchgears
6M5B8-14
• Recent economic downturn as well as price based competition is slowing down the growth of switchgear.
Slowdown in constructionmarkets
Entry by Asian manufacturers
Slowdown in demand
Factors of Influence New Market Trends
Unutilized capacities and piling up of inventory
Increased pricing pressure
Slowdown in market uptakePrice volatility of raw materials
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Industry Challenges
Non Uniformity in
Regulation Impeding New
Technology Development
European Transformer
12
Price Volatility of Raw
Materials
7M675-14
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Transformer and Switchgear
Markets
3Entry by Asian
Companies
1
Impact of Global
Economic Downturn
4
Force Field Analysis of Drivers and Restraints
Driv
ers
Driv
ers
Harmonisation of gridsIncreasing focus on total grid
automation across Europe
Increased focus on renewable energy sources, particularly offshore wind energy
8M675-14
Re
stra
ints
Re
stra
ints
Denotes Long term Impact
Denotes Current Impact
Increase in price based competition
Unfavourable economic conditions influencing
investments
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Revenue Forecast – Transformers & Switchgears
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
1,600.00
1,800.00
2,000.00
Reven
ues (
$ M
illi
on
)
Distribution Transformer Power Transformer
Power and Distribution Transformer : Revenue Forecasts (Europe), 2006-2016
Power and Distribution Transformer : Revenue Projection by Transformer Type (Europe), 2009 and 2016
1,650.0
1,947.8
1,560.2
1,250.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
Distribution
Transformer
Power
Transformer
Re
ven
ue
s (
$ M
illio
n)
9M675-14
0.002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
1,000.0
2009 2016
Source: Frost & Sullivan
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Reven
ues (
$ M
illi
on
)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
High Voltage Medium Voltage
930.01,097.9
1,659.8
1,314.6
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
2009 2016
Medium
Voltage
High
Voltage
High and Medium Voltage Switchgear Market : Revenue Forecasts (Europe), 2006-2016
High and Medium Voltage Switchgear Market : Revenue Projection by Segment (Europe), 2009 and 2016
Porter’s Five Forces
-Product differentiation is low+Price is a major factor for new
entrants
- Too few companies concentrate onservice after sales
Threat of New Entrants
High
-Low levels of product differentiation-Number of companies that offer complete
and customized solution is minimal
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
Weak
Bargaining Power of Buyers
High
10M675-14
Source: Frost & Sullivan
- Transformers and Switchgears form anintegral part of the transmission anddistribution space
Threat of Substitute Products
Weak
- There are no product substitutes
Degree of CompetitionMedium
- Standardized equipmentavailable
+Price competitivenessbetween the suppliers putsthe buyers in the driver’sseat
Key: “+” denotes higher threat/bargaining levels; “-” denotes lower threat/bargaining levels
Tier and Market Share Analysis
Tier 1 : 65%
ABB, Siemens, Areva
T&D, Alstom, Schneider
Electric
Power and Distribution Transformers Market: Tier Analysis by Installed Capacity (Europe), 2009
Tier 1 : 60%
ABB, Siemens,
Schneider Electric,
Alstom Grid
High and Medium Voltage Switchgear Market : Tier Analysis by Installed Capacity (Europe), 2009
11M675-14
Tier 3 : 15%
Imefy, Vonroll, Incoesa, Gedelsa and others.
Tier 2 : 20%
Crompton Greaves, Efacec, SGB
Tier 3: 10%
S&C Electric, Driescher Wegberg, Hawker Siddeley
and others.
Tier 2: 30%
Eaton, Lucy Switchgear, Efacec
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Regional Hot Stops and Emerging Geographies
Country Renewables Infrastructure Smart Grid
Germany 1 1 3
France 5 5 5
United Kingdom 4 2 2
Italy 3 3 1
Benelux 6 4 4
Spain 2 7 6
Scandinavia 7 6 7
ROE 8 8 8
Transformer and Switchgear Market: Region-wise Ranking (Europe), 2009
Transformers and Switchgear Market : Regional Snapshot
(Europe), 2009
Opportunity indicator
Low
High
Opportunity indicator
Low
High
Low
High
The United Kingdom
Scandinavia
12M675-14
Note: The countries are ranked on a scale of 1-8, 1 being the most favourable and 8
being the least favourable market opportunities.
Germany
17%
France
16%
United Kingdom
17%
Italy
12%
Scandinavia
14%
ROE
8%
Spain
8%
Benelux
8%
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Transformer and Switchgear Market : Country-wise Percentage Split (Europe), 2009
Germany
Italy
France
Note:
Size of the bubble indicates the market size.
Color of the bubble indicates the current growth.
LowLowLow Kingdom
Spain
Benelux
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Summary of Key Findings
Transformer industry is highly localized, with imports meeting only 20 percent of demand globally. Transformer industry is highly localized, with imports meeting only 20 percent of demand globally.
Strong local participants dominate the transformer market.Strong local participants dominate the transformer market.
Power transformers market has witnessed continuous expansion, although on a smaller scale. Power transformers market has witnessed continuous expansion, although on a smaller scale.
The distribution transformers market has endured the brunt of the economic downturn with The distribution transformers market has endured the brunt of the economic downturn with
13
Utilities, which are the primary customers of switchgear manufacturers, require further investment towards up-
grading of the electricity grid and this might slow down the growth of switchgear investments.
Utilities, which are the primary customers of switchgear manufacturers, require further investment towards up-
grading of the electricity grid and this might slow down the growth of switchgear investments.
The distribution transformers market has endured the brunt of the economic downturn with
almost zero development in certain pockets of Europe.
The distribution transformers market has endured the brunt of the economic downturn with
almost zero development in certain pockets of Europe.
Switchgear sales are highly project based and the market is expected to boom owing to the recent impetus from
renewable energy and smart grid implementation.
Switchgear sales are highly project based and the market is expected to boom owing to the recent impetus from
renewable energy and smart grid implementation.
The industry at the moment is seeing price wars due to the increase in price of raw materials. The industry at the moment is seeing price wars due to the increase in price of raw materials.
Next Steps
� Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. ([email protected])
� Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth occurring in London on 17 – 18 May 2011. (www.gil-global.com)
14
� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)
Your Feedback is Important to Us
Growth Forecasts?
Competitive Structure?
What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?
15
Emerging Trends?
Strategic Recommendations?
Other?
Rate this presentation via the ‘Rate This’ button on the top right-hand side of your screen.
Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Consulting can assist with your growth strategies
Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter
http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan
http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506
16
http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan
http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506
http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan
For Additional Information
Chiara Carella
Corporate Communications Director
Europe
+44 (0) 207 343 8314
Juliet Shaw
Sales Director
+44 (0) 207 343 8363
17
Vikas Ravindran
Team Lead
Energy & Power
+91 446 160 6666