Read roadmaps dont have roads

Change the Metaphor

!   Not an automobile roadmap !   No clear route

!   No easy navigation

!   No “gas stations”

!   Think aircraft or sailing !   Heading, bearing

!   Navigation error

!   Bring your own supplies

April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference

Is your crystal ball perfect?��Dave Hornford, Partner��Conexiam

Traverse your roadmap - review, revise and wind-up Using scenario technique to manage forks in the roadmap

Conexiam EA Capability

Enterprise Architecture

Change Leadership

Today

•  Enterprise Architecture��key deliverable: the roadmap


Try standing still


Roadmap

!   Sequential & dependency aware set of work packages that realize the Target

!   Includes options and value statements for each Work Package !   Value stated in terms of business capability, market reach and

limitations

!   Provide awareness of existing roadblocks, why they are roadblocks and implications of addressing them head on or perpetually detouring


Example Roadmap ��(Program)

Business

Systems

Year x+1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Year X =2 Q4

Year x

Milestone/Decision Point

Business

Information Technology

Information Systems

Name of Project Spend: $ ; Savings: $

Dependency Complete

Name of Project Spend $ ; Savings: $

ü

Name of Project Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0

Infrastructure







Example Roadmap ��(Program/ Project)


Supported by text explanation

Scenario !   Use the dimensions of uncertainty to construct internally consistent

pictures of possible future worlds

!   Tools !   Shell Explorer’s Guide

A scenario is a story that describes a possible future. It identifies some significant events, the main actors and their motivations, and it conveys how the world functions. Decision makers can use scenarios to think about the uncertain aspects of the future that most worry them—or to discover the aspects about which they should be concerned—and to explore the ways in which these might unfold

!   Other references !   Scenario Planning (Lingren & Bandhold) !   Scenarios: The Art of the Strategic Conversation (Heijden)


Scenarios��Options, Choices & Drivers


The future

!   Did the future unfold according to your plan? !   The future is in motion��

Clouds, credit, succession, project success, and everything else

!   Did your environment’s change align? Do you need a new road?

!   Is there a fork in the road? An end of the road?


Overcome murky crystal ball

!   Use scenarios to defer unnecessary choice !   Dimensions of uncertainty

!   Highlight the uncertain

!   Uncover aspects to be concerned about

!   Real roadmap's require lifecycle management !   Review, revision & wind-up


Scenarios Dimensions of Uncertainty - your fears - things you should fear

April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference 12

Architecture & Scenarios

!   Architecture !   description of a system !   description of the system’s

components !   description of the components

relationship

!   Now change !   a component !   a foundation !   a principle

!   Scenario !   keep the future fluid

!   consider a set of scenarios��

!   How did you manage change !   with certainty?

!   with confidence?

!   with precision?


Manage uncertainty Things you fear

!   Explore uncertain aspects of the future you know you worry about

!   Look at the system !   How does your scenario

avoid & manage your fears

!   Did you push the limits? Or run a ‘safe path’?

Things you should fear

!   Discover aspects of the future you should worry about��

!   Look at the system !   Are there problems lurking?

!   What is not in your control that can derail you?

!   Is your ‘safe path’ the ‘safest’?


Forks

!   Many roadmaps have decisions that limit future choice !   When do you need to make the decision?

!   Today, Tomorrow, Next Quarter

!   Scenarios supporting a Roadmap facilitate structured deferral !   Do you know the significant event that triggers a decision

!   Use identified uncertainty !   to focus on gathering information

!   to focus on identifying the evolving context


The Traps Artificial Certainty Straight-line

April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference 16

Artificial certainty

!   Our greatest trap !   Forces the system to revolve around arbitrary fixed points

!   Do we do it !   Project & Capital spend processes require it

!   We hate ambiguity

!   Need to demonstrate progress


Straightline


Conclusion Real roadmaps have no roads Use scenario to explore future & uncertainty

Use scenario to explore impact of inaction, mis-action & action Roadmaps must be revisited

Manage the level of certainty

Further out & most impacted are less certain


Questions

!   Dave Hornford��Partner��[email protected]��+1 403.818.4303

!   EA Capability !   Enterprise Architecture !   Change Leadership

www.conexiam.com
