Upload
ecofys
View
459
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
PV auctions in Germany
First results and lessons learnt
Dr. Corinna Klessmann
23/06/2016, Intersolar
(c)h
ydyl/
Thin
ksto
ck
© ECOFYS | |
Ecofys work on RES auctions
Supporting the design of RE auction schemes
> Design and evaluation of the German pilot auction for PV (BMWi)
> Design and evaluation of the German auction schemes for wind
onshore and wind offshore (BMWi)
> Offering auctions advice to other governments (EU AURES)
Empirical analysis of international experiences with RES
auctions
> EU AURES, European Commission, IRENA, GIZ, MVV, etc.
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
© ECOFYS | |
Key features of the German pilot auction for PV
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
© ECOFYS | |
Key features of the German PV auction
> Auction volume and schedule
– On average 400 MW ground-mounted PV per year
– Future (EEG 2016): 600 MW per year (ground-mounted and large rooftops)
– Three rounds per year
> Eligible installations
– Pilot auction: ground-mounted PV >100 kW up to 10 MW
– Future: all PV >750 kW up to 10 MW (no differentiation like in France)
– Roof-top <750 kW: exemption from auction, feed-in tariff
> Site restrictions
– Conversion sites
– „Margin strips“ along highways and railways
– 10 sites on farmland in „disadvantaged“ areas
> Auction procedure
– Price only (not multi-criteria like in France)
– Static sealed-bid auction
– Changing price rule in pilot scheme, pay-as-bid from 2016 onwards
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
(c)v
gajic/F
oto
lia
© ECOFYS | |
Prequalification requirements and penalties
Auction PV DE
Realisation
- Sunk costs- Prohibitive barrier for
(some) bidders
- Bidder risks- Prohibitive barrier for (some)
bidders
+ Selection of projects with sufficient planning progress
+ „serious“ bids
+ Incentive to realize due to penalties
+ „serious“ bids
Prequalification:
early/medium
(“Aufstellungsbeschluss”
or “Bebauungsplan”)
Penalties:
50 or 25 €/kW
If installation not realised after two years
(reduction of tariff after 1.5 years)
Site selection PermittingFinancing /Building
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
© ECOFYS | |
Zielkonflikte erschweren die Ausgestaltung der Ausschreibung.
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
Goal Auction design features (intention)
Volume control/Target achievement
- High realisation rate through prequalification requirements and penalties
- Realistic realisation period
Efficiency/Low support costs
- High competition- Low transaction costs- Limitation of bidder risks
Preserving actor diversity
- Simple and transparent design- Non-discriminatory prequalification criteria- Limited bidder risks
Goals of the German PV and renewables auctions
© ECOFYS | |
Market situation for ground-mounted PV installations
> Boom and bust cycle before the auction started in 2015
> Huge untapped project pipeline
> Market actors hoped that auctions would lead to market recovery
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Zubau PV-Freiflächenanlagen in Megawatt
Source: ZSW 2015
Newly installed capacity (ground-mounted PV) in MW
© ECOFYS | |
Results of the first four auction rounds
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
© ECOFYS | |
Efficiency: the level of support for has decreased by 20%
571
525 532
483
157 160
200
128
9.17
8.498.00
7.41
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
10.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Source: Ecofys 2016 based on official results by BNetzA
Support
level in
cent/
kW
h
Volu
me in M
W
Remark: The pricing rule changed from pay-as-bid (1st and 4th round) to uniform pricing (2nd and 3rd round)
Results of German pilot auctionsfor ground mounted PV in 2015 and 2016
Volume of bids (eligable only) Volume awarded EEG (old) Auction results in cent/kWh
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
© ECOFYS | |
Effectiveness: too early to tell
> The realisation period of the first auction has not yet ended (24 months =
April 2017)
> So far only 10 projects realised, but also no awards returned
> Project developers seem to exploit the full realisation period due to falling
module prices
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
(c)h
ydyl/
Thin
ksto
ck
© ECOFYS | |
Actor diversity: a mixed picture
> Large diversity of actors bidding
> Winning bids: some market concentration, but still variety of actors
– In the first round one bidder managed to secure 43% of the volume
– Over the first four rounds approx. 40 bidders were successfull
– „Bigger players“ (cumulated volume share >5%) secured approx. half of the total
volume
> Type of actors: mostly professional project developers, very few
cooperatives and private persons; links between actors difficult to assess
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
29%
28%
20%
21%
20%
0%
33%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Limited Commercial Partnership (GmbH & Co. KG)
Private Limited Company (GmbH)
Public Limited Company (AG/SE)
Individual
Registered Cooperative
Other legal entity
Partnership under German Civil Code (GbR)
Comparision between participating and winning actors -
first four PV auction rounds
Success rate within legal form Number of bids Number of successful bidsx% Sourc
e:
Ecofy
s b
ased o
n o
ffic
ial data
BN
etz
A
© ECOFYS | |
Conclusions and outlook
Conclusions
> So far high competition and decreasing prices; future price stabilisation?
> Auction effectiveness cannot be judged yet, but likely that projects will be
realised
> Some market concentration; trade-off between efficiency and actor diversity
Outlook
> Combined auction for ground-mounted and large PV rooftops will result in
de-facto volume increase for ground-mounted PV
> Cross-border opening of one auction round per year will increase
competition; pilot with Denmark
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann
(c)v
gajic/F
oto
lia
© ECOFYS | |
For more information, please contact:
> Dr. Corinna Klessmann
Principal Consultant
Ecofys
Albrechtstraße 10 c
10117 Berlin
Germany
I: ecofys.com
23/06/2016 Dr. Corinna Klessmann