Responding to a Changing Responding to a Changing Environment -Environment -Insights from Insights from Public Service 2022 Public Service 2022 ……

Mark CallananMark Callanan

Institute of Public AdministrationInstitute of Public Administration

Presentation to Diploma in Management of the Public ServicePresentation to Diploma in Management of the Public Service

2828thth November 2008 November 2008

A Short History of Accelerating Change

100,000 Generations Ago100,000 Generations Ago SpeechSpeech

750750 AgricultureAgriculture

500500 WritingWriting

400400 LibrariesLibraries

4040 UniversitiesUniversities

2424 PrintingPrinting

1616 Accurate ClocksAccurate Clocks

55 TelephoneTelephone

44 RadioRadio

33 TelevisionTelevision

22 ComputerComputer

11 Internet / E-MailInternet / E-Mail

Source: Acceleration Studies Foundation

Government is often obsessed by short-Government is often obsessed by short-term and ‘reactive’ attitudes. It is term and ‘reactive’ attitudes. It is affected by the pressure of public affected by the pressure of public opinion and the media who demand opinion and the media who demand quick solutions to problems. One of the quick solutions to problems. One of the greatest challenges for government is greatest challenges for government is to balance short-term pressures and to balance short-term pressures and long-term objectives. Many areas of long-term objectives. Many areas of public policy, such as ageing, health, public policy, such as ageing, health, education, urban infrastructure, and the education, urban infrastructure, and the environment, can only be addressed environment, can only be addressed adequately over the long term – adequately over the long term – OECD Review of Irish Public ServiceOECD Review of Irish Public Service

Why a Futures Project?Why a Futures Project? Early warning of possible changesEarly warning of possible changes Spotting opportunities earlier and dealing with Spotting opportunities earlier and dealing with

problems when they are easier to fixproblems when they are easier to fix Technique increasingly used in Private and Public Technique increasingly used in Private and Public

sectorssectors Scenario Building – Thinking About Plausible and Scenario Building – Thinking About Plausible and

Alternative Versions of the FutureAlternative Versions of the Future Fostering Inspiration and Imagination on Longer-Term Fostering Inspiration and Imagination on Longer-Term

IssuesIssues Avoiding immediate concerns with the ‘feasibility’Avoiding immediate concerns with the ‘feasibility’ Thinking about, Preparing for, and Having answers Thinking about, Preparing for, and Having answers

ready for different Eventualitiesready for different Eventualities Ignoring Old Demarcations – usually outside Ignoring Old Demarcations – usually outside

our ‘comfort zone’ and beyond our job specour ‘comfort zone’ and beyond our job spec

Source: Clem Bezold, IAF

Sean Dorgan (Chair)Sean Dorgan (Chair) David BeggDavid Begg Prof John BeningtonProf John Benington Gillian BowlerGillian Bowler John CullenJohn Cullen Prof Brendan Prof Brendan

DrummDrumm Alan DukesAlan Dukes Prof John FitzgeraldProf John Fitzgerald Dr Maureen GaffneyDr Maureen Gaffney Dr Mary KellyDr Mary Kelly

Dermot McCarthyDermot McCarthy Martin Mansergh Martin Mansergh

TDTD Ann McGuinnessAnn McGuinness Prof John MurrayProf John Murray Prof Iognáid Ó Prof Iognáid Ó

MuircheartaighMuircheartaigh Julie O’NeillJulie O’Neill Ruairí Quinn TDRuairí Quinn TD Eddie SullivanEddie Sullivan Paddy WrightPaddy Wright

Project Advisory Board

Elements within the ProjectElements within the Project Terms of Reference – Oct. 2005Terms of Reference – Oct. 2005 ‘‘Horizon scanning’ to identify core drivers of change Horizon scanning’ to identify core drivers of change

that will impact on public service provision – Late that will impact on public service provision – Late 20052005

Retrospective Analysis, Research on Public Retrospective Analysis, Research on Public Perceptions, and Initial Drivers of Change – Jan. 2006Perceptions, and Initial Drivers of Change – Jan. 2006

Workshops and Interviews – March to May 2006Workshops and Interviews – March to May 2006 Scenario Building, including Economic Forecast based Scenario Building, including Economic Forecast based

on ‘No Policy Change’ – late-2006 and early 2007on ‘No Policy Change’ – late-2006 and early 2007 How ready are we to meet these alternative futures? How ready are we to meet these alternative futures?

– early 2007– early 2007 Completion and Launch – Nov. 2007Completion and Launch – Nov. 2007

Demographic Drivers of ChangeDemographic Drivers of Change

Increasing Population and New ProfilesIncreasing Population and New Profiles

A Multicultural IrelandA Multicultural Ireland

An Ageing PopulationAn Ageing Population

Spatial Patterns – Counteracting the Spatial Patterns – Counteracting the

dominance of Dublin?dominance of Dublin?

Societal Drivers of ChangeSocietal Drivers of Change Changing Societal Values and AttitudesChanging Societal Values and Attitudes ‘‘What’s the bottom line?’ – a ‘results-oriented’ What’s the bottom line?’ – a ‘results-oriented’

clientele, who will go elsewhere if not happyclientele, who will go elsewhere if not happy A more individualistic and hedonistic society?A more individualistic and hedonistic society? Greater demands for transparency and Greater demands for transparency and

accountabilityaccountability Breakdown of cultural barriers with greater Breakdown of cultural barriers with greater

mobility, but ethnic tensions never far away?mobility, but ethnic tensions never far away?

Environmental Drivers of ChangeEnvironmental Drivers of Change

Energy SupplyEnergy Supply

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Natural or man-made Natural or man-made

environmental disasters remain a environmental disasters remain a

possibilitypossibility

Technological Drivers of ChangeTechnological Drivers of Change The Pace of Change is BewilderingThe Pace of Change is Bewildering

Life-long learning to ‘keep up’Life-long learning to ‘keep up’

Communication easier and cheaperCommunication easier and cheaper

Help and a hindrance?Help and a hindrance?

Portfolio careersPortfolio careers

The knowledge economy has great The knowledge economy has great potential, but could also accentuate potential, but could also accentuate inequalitiesinequalities

Economic Drivers of ChangeEconomic Drivers of Change Current medium-term forecast is for stagnation in Current medium-term forecast is for stagnation in

short-term, followed by steady economic growth, short-term, followed by steady economic growth, with a number of ‘ifs’with a number of ‘ifs’

Globalisation – international flows of trade, goods, Globalisation – international flows of trade, goods, services, capital, and peopleservices, capital, and people

Geopolitical balances, north/south, migrationGeopolitical balances, north/south, migration Relentless and dynamic competition, or ‘take a Relentless and dynamic competition, or ‘take a

break’break’ Services sector as the mainstay of employmentServices sector as the mainstay of employment Reduction in numbers employed in traditional Reduction in numbers employed in traditional

manufacturing and agriculture expectedmanufacturing and agriculture expected

New Balance of Economic Activity

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers (relative to US = 100; purchasing power parity is assumed to remain constant)

Country / RegionCountry / Region GDP 2005GDP 2005 GDP 2050GDP 2050

USUS 100100 100100

EU (incl. Turkey)EU (incl. Turkey) 6969 6161

IndiaIndia 3030 100100

ChinaChina 7676 143143

Workplace Drivers of ChangeWorkplace Drivers of Change

Changing work patternsChanging work patterns

Changing workforceChanging workforce

A more competitive workplaceA more competitive workplace

Organisations becoming flatter?Organisations becoming flatter?

Corporate loyalty as a thing of the Corporate loyalty as a thing of the

past?past?

Governance Drivers of Change(1)Governance Drivers of Change(1) What is the future role of the state as a What is the future role of the state as a

provider of services? – Step Up or Step Back?provider of services? – Step Up or Step Back? Greater demands to hold political and Greater demands to hold political and

administrative actors ‘to account’ for administrative actors ‘to account’ for decisionsdecisions

Absolute accountability vs. Innovation and Absolute accountability vs. Innovation and risk in the public servicerisk in the public service

Productivity in the public sectorProductivity in the public sector Mass production (efficiency) or tailoring Mass production (efficiency) or tailoring

services to the needs of the individual services to the needs of the individual (quality)(quality)

Governance Drivers of Change(2)Governance Drivers of Change(2) Demands for greater effectiveness and Demands for greater effectiveness and

coordination across different levels and coordination across different levels and agencies of governmentagencies of government

More complexity in policy-makingMore complexity in policy-making Locus of policy making Locus of policy making Role of the Media – Government by Role of the Media – Government by

‘Liveline’‘Liveline’ Pro-active or re-active? Pro-active or re-active? Institutional BoundariesInstitutional Boundaries

Ireland and the Public Service Ireland and the Public Service in 2022 – Scenariosin 2022 – Scenarios Liberty and IndividualismLiberty and Individualism Islands of EmpiresIslands of Empires Fattened GeeseFattened Geese Italification of IrelandItalification of Ireland

Perspectives (External)Perspectives (External) Is the public service ‘fit for purpose’ – Is the public service ‘fit for purpose’ –

is it ready for different eventualities, is it ready for different eventualities, challenges, opportunities?challenges, opportunities?

What choices lie ahead?What choices lie ahead? Quality of LifeQuality of Life Economic PerformanceEconomic Performance Physical and Social InfrastructurePhysical and Social Infrastructure Governance and DemocracyGovernance and Democracy

Perspectives (Internal)Perspectives (Internal) Is the public service ‘fit for purpose’ – Is the public service ‘fit for purpose’ –

is it ready for different eventualities, is it ready for different eventualities, challenges, opportunities?challenges, opportunities?

What choices lie ahead?What choices lie ahead? Political domainPolitical domain Civil ServiceCivil Service Local GovernmentLocal Government Health ServiceHealth Service

Orthodoxies that need challengingOrthodoxies that need challenging Context – ensuring public service is well Context – ensuring public service is well

positioned to cope with challenges ahead positioned to cope with challenges ahead and respond to future demandand respond to future demand

The centre can do and control everything The centre can do and control everything Empowering the front line and more Empowering the front line and more flexibilityflexibility

Every problem needs a new agencyEvery problem needs a new agency The public service is only about service The public service is only about service

deliverydelivery Ministers are responsible for everythingMinisters are responsible for everything Some in-built rigidities in the system are Some in-built rigidities in the system are

‘off-limits’ ‘off-limits’

It is not the strongest It is not the strongest species that survive, species that survive, nor is it the most nor is it the most intelligent, but those intelligent, but those most adaptive to most adaptive to change – change – Charles DarwinCharles Darwin

Thank you for Thank you for your attention!your attention!

Mark CallananMark CallananInstitute of Public AdministrationInstitute of Public Administration

57-61 Lansdowne Road57-61 Lansdowne RoadDublin 4Dublin 4IrelandIreland

Tel: +353.1.2403632Tel: +353.1.2403632Fax: +353.1.6689135Fax: +353.1.6689135

Email: Email: mcallanan@ipa.iemcallanan@ipa.ieWeb:Web: www.ipa.ie www.ipa.ie Project Website:Project Website:

www.publicservice2022.iewww.publicservice2022.ie