Public Opinion Landscape - The Economy

The Public Opinion Landscape – The Economy September 21, 2012

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future

2. Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy

3. Perceptions of Role of Government & Regulation

4. 2012 Election: Obama vs. Romney on the Economy

Slide

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10

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1. Slight increase in economic optimism over last few months.

a) However, overall views of economy still weak.

2. Obama gets negative (though improving) ratings on his handling of the economy.

3. Generally, people feel the economy hasn’t improved under Obama – and that he deserves at least some of the blame.

a) Yet, people still see Bush policies as primarily responsible for our national economic problems.

4. Electorate evenly divided over whether Obama or Romney would better handle the economy.

a) Obama seen as more in touch with Americans’ economic problems while voters expect a Romney administration would favor the rich.

SUMMARY

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Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future

AS WE NEAR THE ELECTION, OPTIMISM IS ON THE RISE

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Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 19, 2012

Election Optimism?

The trend shows a subtle increase in

optimism since July. RIGHT DIRECTION 34.1%

WRONG TRACK 57.7%

AMERICANS’ VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY HAVE BECOME MORE POSITIVE

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Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012

Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

43% 36%

32%

30%

23% 22% 24% 28%

30% 30%

28%

44% 49% 50%

45% 49%

43% 44% 38%

45% 43% 39%

12% 14% 18%

24%

28% 34%

30% 33%

24% 25%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Staying the Same

Getting worse

Getting better

MAJORITY BELIEVE HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION WILL STAY THE SAME OR GET BETTER

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Source: AP-GfK Poll, September 13-17, 2012

How do you expect the financial situation of your household to change over the next 12 months? Will it get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

36% 37% 31% 30% 30%

36%

52% 50% 47%

51% 52%

44%

11% 11%

18% 15% 14% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dec-11 Feb-12 May-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12

Staying the Same

Getting worse

Getting better

YET, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECLINES IN AUGUST; AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LAST NOVEMBER

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2009 2010 2011

Source: Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board

49.3

47.4

54.5

48.7

56.5

46.4

62.7

53.2

48.6

54.3

72 66

61.7

58.5

59.2

45.2

46.4 40.9

55.2

64.8 61.5

71.6 68.7 65.4

60.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Consumer Confidence Index

2012

AMERICANS CONTINUE TO HEAR A MIX OF GOOD AND BAD NEWS ABOUT THE ECONOMY

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19%

64% 68% 65% 68%

30% 39%

60% 62% 60% 53% 58%

80%

31%

41%

29% 24%

67% 58%

30%

24%

32% 41%

35%

1%

11%

1% 11%

3% 6% 0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Dec-

08Fe

b-09

Apr-

09Ju

n-09

Aug-

09O

ct-0

9De

c-09

Feb-

10Ap

r-10

Jun-

10Au

g-10

Oct

-10

Dec-

10Fe

b-11

Apr-

11Ju

n-11

Aug-

11O

ct-1

1De

c-11

Feb-

12Ap

r-12

Jun-

12Au

g-12

A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012

Are you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or a mix of both good and bad news?

Mix of good and bad news

Mostly bad news

Mostly good news

VERY LARGE PARTISAN GAP IN VIEWS OF ECONOMIC NEWS

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% hearing mostly bad news about…

Rep Dem Ind

The economy 60% 15% 36%

The job situation 75% 34% 54%

Consumer prices 74% 40% 64%

Financial markets 52% 23% 42%

Real estate values 57% 30% 44%

Gas prices 89% 65% 78%

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Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy

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GAP ON PRESIDENT OBAMA’S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY NARROWS

Source: Pollster.com composite measure as of September 19, 2012

Disapprove 50.6%

Approve 44.0%

Handling of the economy

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MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 41% DON’T THINK HIS POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY


Note: “Made economy worse (vol.)” and “DK/NA” results not shown

Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies: 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will.

41%

30%

26%

Not improving and never will

Not improved but will in time

Improving economy 56%

Among Likely Voters

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JUST AS MANY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA A GOOD GRADE ON THE ECONOMY AS A POOR GRADE

Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012

What grade would you give President Obama on fixing the economy after being in office for three and a half years?

12%

26%

14% 12%

24%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

A B C D F Inc.

Note: “Don’t know” results not shown

38% A/B 36% D/F

PARTISANSHIP DRIVES VIEWS ON PRESIDENTIAL IMPACT ON ECONOMY

39%

55%

24%

40%

53%

35%

71%

51%

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Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012

NOTE: In July ’11, 41% of Americans felt the economy was something the president can do a lot about. 53% believed the economy was beyond the president’s control.

Beyond President’s Control Can Do A Lot

Note: “Don’t know” results not shown

Total

Republican

Democrat

Independent

Is the condition of the national economy something a president can do a lot about, or is it beyond a president’s control?

MAJORITY INDICATES ECONOMY HAS NOT IMPROVED UNDER OBAMA’S TENURE; OF THOSE THAT FEEL THIS WAY, MAJORITY FEELS HE DESERVES SOME BLAME

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Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012

Now thinking about the country’s economy as a whole, would you say the economy has gotten better since Obama became president, gotten worse, or remained about the same?

32% 43%

24%

Better Worse Same

(IF ECONOMY GOTTEN WORSE OR SAME) How much, if at all, do you blame Obama for the fact that the economy has not gotten better since he took office – do you think he deserves a lot of the blame for that, some, a little or none at all?

14%

15%

34%

37%

No blame at all

A little blame

Some blame

A lot of blame

Note: “No opinion” results not shown

71%

Among Registered Voters

MAJORITY INDICATES PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION HAS NOT IMPROVED UNDER OBAMA’S TENURE; ABOUT HALF FEEL HE DESERVES AT LEAST SOME BLAME

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Would you say you, yourself are better off financially than you were when Obama became president, not as well off, or about the same shape as then financially?

20%

32%

47%

Better off Not as well off About thesame

(IF NOT AS WELL OFF OR SAME SINCE OBAMA) How much, if at all, do you blame Obama for the fact that you haven’t gotten better off financially since he took office – do you think he deserves a lot of the blame for that, some, a little or none at all?

31%

18%

26%

22%

No blame at all

A little blame

Some blame

A lot of blame

Note: “No opinion” results not shown

48%


YET OBAMA STILL NOT BLAMED AS MUCH AS HIS PREDECESSOR FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

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Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012

Do you think the policies of Barack Obama and the Democrats or George W. Bush and the Republicans are more responsible for the country’s current economic problems?

Obama and the Democrats

38%

Bush and the Republicans

54% Note: “Both equally (vol),” “Neither (vol),” and “No opinion” results not shown

Among Likely Voters

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Perceptions of Role of Government & Regulation

MAJOR PARTISAN DIVIDE ON APPROPRIATE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT

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Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Others think that government should do more to solve our country’s problems. Which comes to closer to your own view?

Source: Gallup Poll, September 6-9, 2012

Doing too much

Government should do more

Mixed / Depends

ALL 54% 39% 5%

Republicans 82% 15% 1% Independents 62% 29% 7% Democrats 24% 67% 7%

IN A SHIFT FROM ’08 – ’09, VOTERS NOW SEE TOO MUCH GOVERNMENT REGULATION…

20 Note: “Depends (vol.)” and “DK/NA” results not shown

41% 35%

28% 28%

45% 49%

22% 26%

43% 40%

27% 22%

22% 25%

16% 18% 17% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-86 Feb-02 Sep-08 Feb-09 Feb-11 Jul-12

Too much

Too little

Right amount

Do you think the federal government regulates business too much these days, does it regulate business to little, or does it impose the right amount of regulation on business?

Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012

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2012 – Election Obama vs. Romney on the Economy

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OBAMA PULLS EVEN WITH ROMNEY ON BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE THE ECONOMY

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46% 45%

50% 50% 51%

49%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Obama Romney

Before conventions

After Republican convention

After Democratic convention

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012

Now, I’m going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President? The economy

Among Likely Voters Among Likely Voters Among Likely Voters

VOTERS FEEL OBAMA BETTER UNDERSTANDS THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF AMERICANS THAN ROMNEY

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Regardless of who you support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having – Obama or Romney?

37% 38% 40% 40% 40% 40%

52% 49% 48%

51% 47%

50%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12

Obama

Romney


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OBAMA & ROMNEY CLOSE ON MOST OTHER ECONOMIC ISSUES


Regardless of who you support, which one of the presidential candidates [Mitt Romney or Barack Obama] do you think would do the best job of [INSERT]?

48% 46% 43% 42% 45% 46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dealing with taxes Improving the job situation Reducing the federalbudget deficit

Obama Romney

Note: “Both,” “Neither,” and “Don’t know” results are not shown.

Romney +3


Obama +1

Obama +6

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VOTERS DON’T FEEL EITHER CANDIDATE HAS A CLEAR PLAN FOR IMPROVING THE ECONOMY

Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012

Do you think Barack Obama has a clear plan for improving the economy, or not?

Do you think Mitt Romney has a clear plan for improving the economy, or not?

45% Yes

51% No

42% Yes

49% No

4% Don’t know

9% Don’t know

Among Likely Voters

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MAJORITY OF VOTERS THINK ROMNEY ADMINISTRATION WOULD FAVOR THE RICH

[If Barack Obama is re-elected President / If Mitt Romney is elected President], do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same?

12%

26% 22%

30%

53%

8% 1%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Favor rich Favor middle class Favor poor Treat equally

Obama Romney

Note: “DK/NA” results are not shown.

Among Likely Voters


THE REAL 47% -- VIEW POLLS UNFAVORABLY

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Favorable – unfavorable views

47%

59%

46%

21%

Public opinion polls

Political pundits

FavorableUnfavorable

Note: “No opinion” results are not shown.

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

David Cantor ([email protected])

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Public Opinion Landscape - The Economy