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The Public Opinion Landscape – The Economy September 21, 2012
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future
2. Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy
3. Perceptions of Role of Government & Regulation
4. 2012 Election: Obama vs. Romney on the Economy
Slide
3
10
18
21
2
1. Slight increase in economic optimism over last few months.
a) However, overall views of economy still weak.
2. Obama gets negative (though improving) ratings on his handling of the economy.
3. Generally, people feel the economy hasn’t improved under Obama – and that he deserves at least some of the blame.
a) Yet, people still see Bush policies as primarily responsible for our national economic problems.
4. Electorate evenly divided over whether Obama or Romney would better handle the economy.
a) Obama seen as more in touch with Americans’ economic problems while voters expect a Romney administration would favor the rich.
SUMMARY
3
Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future
AS WE NEAR THE ELECTION, OPTIMISM IS ON THE RISE
4
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 19, 2012
Election Optimism?
The trend shows a subtle increase in
optimism since July. RIGHT DIRECTION 34.1%
WRONG TRACK 57.7%
AMERICANS’ VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY HAVE BECOME MORE POSITIVE
5
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
43% 36%
32%
30%
23% 22% 24% 28%
30% 30%
28%
44% 49% 50%
45% 49%
43% 44% 38%
45% 43% 39%
12% 14% 18%
24%
28% 34%
30% 33%
24% 25%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Staying the Same
Getting worse
Getting better
MAJORITY BELIEVE HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION WILL STAY THE SAME OR GET BETTER
6
Source: AP-GfK Poll, September 13-17, 2012
How do you expect the financial situation of your household to change over the next 12 months? Will it get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
36% 37% 31% 30% 30%
36%
52% 50% 47%
51% 52%
44%
11% 11%
18% 15% 14% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Dec-11 Feb-12 May-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
Staying the Same
Getting worse
Getting better
YET, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECLINES IN AUGUST; AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LAST NOVEMBER
7
2009 2010 2011
Source: Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board
49.3
47.4
54.5
48.7
56.5
46.4
62.7
53.2
48.6
54.3
72 66
61.7
58.5
59.2
45.2
46.4 40.9
55.2
64.8 61.5
71.6 68.7 65.4
60.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Consumer Confidence Index
2012
AMERICANS CONTINUE TO HEAR A MIX OF GOOD AND BAD NEWS ABOUT THE ECONOMY
8
19%
64% 68% 65% 68%
30% 39%
60% 62% 60% 53% 58%
80%
31%
41%
29% 24%
67% 58%
30%
24%
32% 41%
35%
1%
11%
1% 11%
3% 6% 0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Dec-
08Fe
b-09
Apr-
09Ju
n-09
Aug-
09O
ct-0
9De
c-09
Feb-
10Ap
r-10
Jun-
10Au
g-10
Oct
-10
Dec-
10Fe
b-11
Apr-
11Ju
n-11
Aug-
11O
ct-1
1De
c-11
Feb-
12Ap
r-12
Jun-
12Au
g-12
A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012
Are you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or a mix of both good and bad news?
Mix of good and bad news
Mostly bad news
Mostly good news
VERY LARGE PARTISAN GAP IN VIEWS OF ECONOMIC NEWS
9
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012
% hearing mostly bad news about…
Rep Dem Ind
The economy 60% 15% 36%
The job situation 75% 34% 54%
Consumer prices 74% 40% 64%
Financial markets 52% 23% 42%
Real estate values 57% 30% 44%
Gas prices 89% 65% 78%
10
Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy
11
GAP ON PRESIDENT OBAMA’S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY NARROWS
Source: Pollster.com composite measure as of September 19, 2012
Disapprove 50.6%
Approve 44.0%
Handling of the economy
12
MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 41% DON’T THINK HIS POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
Note: “Made economy worse (vol.)” and “DK/NA” results not shown
Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies: 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will.
41%
30%
26%
Not improving and never will
Not improved but will in time
Improving economy 56%
Among Likely Voters
13
JUST AS MANY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA A GOOD GRADE ON THE ECONOMY AS A POOR GRADE
Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012
What grade would you give President Obama on fixing the economy after being in office for three and a half years?
12%
26%
14% 12%
24%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
A B C D F Inc.
Note: “Don’t know” results not shown
38% A/B 36% D/F
PARTISANSHIP DRIVES VIEWS ON PRESIDENTIAL IMPACT ON ECONOMY
39%
55%
24%
40%
53%
35%
71%
51%
14
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
NOTE: In July ’11, 41% of Americans felt the economy was something the president can do a lot about. 53% believed the economy was beyond the president’s control.
Beyond President’s Control Can Do A Lot
Note: “Don’t know” results not shown
Total
Republican
Democrat
Independent
Is the condition of the national economy something a president can do a lot about, or is it beyond a president’s control?
MAJORITY INDICATES ECONOMY HAS NOT IMPROVED UNDER OBAMA’S TENURE; OF THOSE THAT FEEL THIS WAY, MAJORITY FEELS HE DESERVES SOME BLAME
15
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
Now thinking about the country’s economy as a whole, would you say the economy has gotten better since Obama became president, gotten worse, or remained about the same?
32% 43%
24%
Better Worse Same
(IF ECONOMY GOTTEN WORSE OR SAME) How much, if at all, do you blame Obama for the fact that the economy has not gotten better since he took office – do you think he deserves a lot of the blame for that, some, a little or none at all?
14%
15%
34%
37%
No blame at all
A little blame
Some blame
A lot of blame
Note: “No opinion” results not shown
71%
Among Registered Voters
MAJORITY INDICATES PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION HAS NOT IMPROVED UNDER OBAMA’S TENURE; ABOUT HALF FEEL HE DESERVES AT LEAST SOME BLAME
16
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
Would you say you, yourself are better off financially than you were when Obama became president, not as well off, or about the same shape as then financially?
20%
32%
47%
Better off Not as well off About thesame
(IF NOT AS WELL OFF OR SAME SINCE OBAMA) How much, if at all, do you blame Obama for the fact that you haven’t gotten better off financially since he took office – do you think he deserves a lot of the blame for that, some, a little or none at all?
31%
18%
26%
22%
No blame at all
A little blame
Some blame
A lot of blame
Note: “No opinion” results not shown
48%
Among Registered Voters
YET OBAMA STILL NOT BLAMED AS MUCH AS HIS PREDECESSOR FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
17
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
Do you think the policies of Barack Obama and the Democrats or George W. Bush and the Republicans are more responsible for the country’s current economic problems?
Obama and the Democrats
38%
Bush and the Republicans
54% Note: “Both equally (vol),” “Neither (vol),” and “No opinion” results not shown
Among Likely Voters
18
Perceptions of Role of Government & Regulation
MAJOR PARTISAN DIVIDE ON APPROPRIATE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
19
Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Others think that government should do more to solve our country’s problems. Which comes to closer to your own view?
Source: Gallup Poll, September 6-9, 2012
Doing too much
Government should do more
Mixed / Depends
ALL 54% 39% 5%
Republicans 82% 15% 1% Independents 62% 29% 7% Democrats 24% 67% 7%
IN A SHIFT FROM ’08 – ’09, VOTERS NOW SEE TOO MUCH GOVERNMENT REGULATION…
20 Note: “Depends (vol.)” and “DK/NA” results not shown
41% 35%
28% 28%
45% 49%
22% 26%
43% 40%
27% 22%
22% 25%
16% 18% 17% 19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-86 Feb-02 Sep-08 Feb-09 Feb-11 Jul-12
Too much
Too little
Right amount
Do you think the federal government regulates business too much these days, does it regulate business to little, or does it impose the right amount of regulation on business?
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
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2012 – Election Obama vs. Romney on the Economy
21
OBAMA PULLS EVEN WITH ROMNEY ON BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE THE ECONOMY
22
46% 45%
50% 50% 51%
49%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Obama Romney
Before conventions
After Republican convention
After Democratic convention
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
Now, I’m going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President? The economy
Among Likely Voters Among Likely Voters Among Likely Voters
VOTERS FEEL OBAMA BETTER UNDERSTANDS THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF AMERICANS THAN ROMNEY
23
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
Regardless of who you support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having – Obama or Romney?
37% 38% 40% 40% 40% 40%
52% 49% 48%
51% 47%
50%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
Obama
Romney
Among Registered Voters
24
OBAMA & ROMNEY CLOSE ON MOST OTHER ECONOMIC ISSUES
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
Regardless of who you support, which one of the presidential candidates [Mitt Romney or Barack Obama] do you think would do the best job of [INSERT]?
48% 46% 43% 42% 45% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Dealing with taxes Improving the job situation Reducing the federalbudget deficit
Obama Romney
Note: “Both,” “Neither,” and “Don’t know” results are not shown.
Romney +3
Among Registered Voters
Obama +1
Obama +6
25
VOTERS DON’T FEEL EITHER CANDIDATE HAS A CLEAR PLAN FOR IMPROVING THE ECONOMY
Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012
Do you think Barack Obama has a clear plan for improving the economy, or not?
Do you think Mitt Romney has a clear plan for improving the economy, or not?
45% Yes
51% No
42% Yes
49% No
4% Don’t know
9% Don’t know
Among Likely Voters
26
MAJORITY OF VOTERS THINK ROMNEY ADMINISTRATION WOULD FAVOR THE RICH
[If Barack Obama is re-elected President / If Mitt Romney is elected President], do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same?
12%
26% 22%
30%
53%
8% 1%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Favor rich Favor middle class Favor poor Treat equally
Obama Romney
Note: “DK/NA” results are not shown.
Among Likely Voters
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
THE REAL 47% -- VIEW POLLS UNFAVORABLY
27
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-16, 2012
Favorable – unfavorable views
47%
59%
46%
21%
Public opinion polls
Political pundits
FavorableUnfavorable
Note: “No opinion” results are not shown.
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GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
David Cantor ([email protected])