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+ Probabilistic Trajectories of light General Aviation operations ALIAS 2014 – European University Institute - Fiesole Damiano Taurino in behalf of the ProGA Consortium

PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

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Page 1: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

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Probabilistic Trajectories of light General Aviation operations ALIAS 2014 – European University Institute - FiesoleDamiano Taurino

in behalf of the ProGA Consortium

Page 2: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

ProGA Project

study the feasibility of a system that can continually and automatically predict the future GA aircraft’s flight corridor or its volume of operation

Probabilistic 4d Trajectories of light General Aviation operations

Main Objective

Page 3: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

STORYBOARD

1Planning

2Flying

USER NEEDS BENEFITS

APPROACHES CHALLENGES

3

After-flight

Page 4: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

CAPT. MASSIMO

BE-FREE

SAFE

PLANNING

G

VFR

Page 5: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

PLANNING

TRAFFIC INFO

AVOID KNOWN CRITICAL SPOTS

HOTSPOTS

AB

Page 6: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

PLANNING

Intent data

Historical dataACCEPTABILIT

Y

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

hotspots

Page 7: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

IN-FLIGHT

Page 8: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

IN-FLIGHTBETTER SA

VISUALIZATION

AVOID POTENTIAL CONFLICTS

Page 9: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

IN–FLIGHT (short-term prediction)

ACCEPTABILITY

ADSB-LIKE

KALMAN FILTER

Two-phase iterative scheme

Page 10: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

IN–FLIGHT

Page 11: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

IN-FLIGHT (LONG TERM)

VISUALIZATION

UNCERTAINTY VIS. METHODS

IN-FLIGHT REPLANNING

Page 12: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

IN-FLIGHT (LONG TERM)

DATA AVAILAB

BETTER SA

MATCHING

COMPUTATION

RECONSTRUCTION

KDE

Page 13: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

KDE FOR TIPICALLY FLOWN PATHS

KDE from the flown paths betweenBernay (LFPD) andSaint-Cyr-l'Ecole (LFPZ)

Page 14: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

KDE FOR TIPICALLY FLOWN PATHS

KDE from the flown paths betweenBernay (LFPD) andSaint-Cyr-l'Ecole (LFPZ)

Page 15: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

KDE FOR TIPICALLY FLOWN PATHS

KDE from the flown paths betweenBernay (LFPD) andSaint-Cyr-l'Ecole (LFPZ)

Page 16: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

AFTER-FLIGHTACCEPTABILIT

Y

SEND FLIGHT PATH

ENGAGEMENTFlown Path

UPLOAD

REAL TIME TRACK

Page 17: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

FLIGHT CORRIDORS VS VOLUMES OF OPERATION

FLIGHT CORRIDORS +

HOTSPOTS

VOLUME OF OPERATION

powered glider

Page 18: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

FLIGHT CORRIDORS VS VOLUMES OF OPERATION

Termal lift flights

Page 19: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

WAY FORWARD

Develop a prototype HMI

Validate the concept with pilots by means of simulations, interviews, observations

Assess the foreseen benefits of a ProGA system in the key performance area of safety

Determine the social acceptance within the GA community of sharing location and intent during flight

Understand certification issues: is it part of the cockpit or just a support tool (e.g. Electronic Flight Bag)?

“A portable EFB is a portable EFB host platform, used on the flight deck, which is not part of the certified aircraft configuration. It hosts type A and/or type B as well as miscellaneous (non- EFB) software applications. If mounted, the portable EFB must be easily removable from its mounting device without the use of tools, by the flight crew.” (CAA UK definition)

Page 20: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

LIABILITY AND INSURANCE

It is not an autonomous/automatic system, but it still supports the Pilot in Command in decision making (by presenting a probabilistic information)

In the case of an accident may the use of the tool somehow affect pilot’s liability (negatively or positively)?

Liability and non-certified equipment (e.g. in the case of non-reliable position data transmission)

May the use of the tool bring benefits when taking out insurance (due to enhanced safety)?

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CONCLUSIONS

PLANNINGTRAFFIC

INFO

AVOID KNOWN CRITICAL SPOTS

HOTSPOTS

BETTER SA

VISUALIZATION

AVOID POTENTIAL CONFLICTS

ACCEPTABILITY

ADSB-LIKE

KALMAN FILTER

UNCERTAINTY VIS. METHODS

IN-FLIGHT REPLANNING

DATA AVAILAB

MATCHING

COMPUTATION

RECONSTRUCTION

KDEFLIGHT PATH SHARING

ENGAGEMENT

LIBERTY

SAFE

LIABILITY

Page 22: PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino

CONCLUSIONS

ProGA can help improve three layers of conflict management

This will help reducing GA midair collision risk

Trajectorymanagement

Intent basedsurveillance

State basedsurveillance

Midair collision

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THANK YOU

Database by Dmitry Baranovskiy from The Noun Project

Process by Takao Umehara from The Noun Project

Airplane by Juan Pablo Bravo from The Noun Project

X and check by useiconic.com from The Noun Project

Captain Massimo

/credits