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Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin Notenbaert A., Pfeifer C., MacAlister C., Abebe Y., Omolo A., Rebelo L-M. NBDC Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science Workshop Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9 – 10 July 2013

Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

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Presented by Notenbaert A., Pfeifer C., MacAlister C., Abebe Y., Omolo A. and Rebelo L-M. at the Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science Workshop, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9–10 July 2013

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Page 1: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Notenbaert A., Pfeifer C., MacAlister C., Abebe Y., Omolo A., Rebelo L-M.

NBDC Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science WorkshopAddis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9 – 10 July 2013

Page 2: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Funded by CPWF a collaboration of ILRI, IWMI, OARI, ARARI, ERHA

“On targeting and scaling out”

How can targeting in combination with out-scaling be linked to impact assessment and contribute to priority setting?

• Generic framework for targeting and prioritisation

• Application to RWM in the Blue Nile Basin

Page 3: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Generic framework for targeting and prioritisation

1. Diagnosis and identification of alternative options

2. Characterisation of options: identify the characteristics of the intervention that may affect its use and adoption in agricultural systems.

3. Identification of recommendation domains and out-scaling potential: where are these options likely to be applicable? and also: to be adopted?

4. Ex-ante impact assessment:a) Who are the groups of people who are likely to be affected by the output of

the technology/intervention?b) What are the nature of the impacts, in terms of both the type of impact and

their size?

Not a linear task a multi-stage and iterative process:

Page 4: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Blue Nile basin: challenges

• Food insecurity• High poverty levels• Low and variable yields• Declining soil fertility• Land degradation• Water logging• ….

Page 5: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Rainwater management practices

different landscape zones ~ different objectives

Main objective

Cropland Grassland Degraded land

UplandsIncrease

infiltration Increase quantity and

quality of fodder for livestock

Rehabilitate degraded land

MidlandsControl erosion

and soil moisture

Lowlands Efficient use of

surface or shallow groundwater

Page 6: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Rainwater management strategies

Aim: sustainably increase the system’s productivity at landscape scale

Trade-offs / synergies

Combined Rain Water Management Practices = Rainwater Management Strategies

Page 7: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Practice database

• Many different practices have been promoted and described

• Database with 83 practices

• Bio-physical, socio-economic and institutional conditions influence: suitability, adoption and success.

RMP database

Literature, expert knowledge and adoption studies

Page 8: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Adoption studiesVariable at farm level

(farm household survey)Orchard SWC Irrigation from the river Variable at woreda level

Landholding size -0.3633014(0.002)

-0.32609(0)

0.8432849(0.001)

Average landholding size*

Landholding size square 0.0098738(0.469)

0.025805(0.031)

-0.1226992(0.006)

average plot size 2.875819(0)

-1.460356(0.01)

Average plot size*

number of plots 0.077025(0)

0.0933675(0.001)

Land fragmentation*

Household size/landholding size

0.0124864(0.018)

Population density*

female headed HH (binary)

-0.9771629(0.001)

Proportion of female headed household*

Has off-farm income (binary)

0.324617(0.027)

Proportion of households not solely dependent on agriculture*

Has hired labor (binary) 0.0038905(0)

Proportion on household who hired labor*

Access to advise from the extension service (binary)

0.0038905(0)

0.390598(0)

Proportion of household with access to extension service*

access to credit (binary) 0.3168265(0.008)

Proportion of households with access to credit services*

time to market -0.108154(0.01)

Travel time**

time to market sq 0.0017995(0.041)

distance to market 0.723262(0.001)

Distance to town with more 10 000 inhabitant **

distance to market squared

-0.0015395(0.023)

Constant 0.5559211(0.036)

0.088009(0.586)

-4.648007(0)

Observations 683 724 814 R-squared 0.1073 0.096 0.1111 Condition slope>0 erosion>0 at least one flat plot

p-value in bracket *taken from the Ethiopian Rural Economic Atlas (census data)** other geographical layer (see data description in table 2)

Page 9: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

“Suitability maps”

Link practice database to a spatial database:

Geographical areas where the practices are suitable

Page 10: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

“willingness to adopt”

Results adoption studies applied to census data

Page 11: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Feasibility maps

Suitability x adoption = feasibility

Page 12: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

User-friendly tool for targeting

NileGOBLET

Tool

Page 13: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Impact Assessment

Assess impacts of alternative strategies: Different stakeholders Different spatial and temporal scales Different metrics:

- Yield increases- Economic returns - Food security - Income- Sustainability

GIS overlays Models Quantitative assessment Multi-criteria analyses

Page 14: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Ex-ante impact assessment

Based on SLM best-bet practices: “most likely to be adopted” strategy

Transformed for SWAT modelling

Impact of full implementation:Local & basin scaleShort- & long term

Page 15: Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin

Multi-stage process

Process applicable in different forms and settings

Step-by-step guide for planning

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4THANK YOU!