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Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009
FNS IndonesiaJakarta
06 October 2009
German Parliamentary Elections 27 September 2009
Rainer Heufers
6 October 2009
Who was competing?
PurpleBlack
RedYellowGreen
Election Results
Back to 1949…?
Voter turnout reduced
Geographic distribution
West and East Germany
West and East Germany
Analysis by profession (in %)
CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene
Unemployed
21 (-2) 22 (-8) 11 (+3) 25 (+2) 10 (+3)
Workers 28 (-2) 24 (-13) 13 (+5) 18 (+6) 7 (+2)
Employed 32 20 (-16) 16 (+6) 11 (+3) 14 (+3)
Self-employed
33 (-9) 14 (-7) 27 (+8) 6 14 (+2)
Officials 32 (-6) 25 (-5) 13 (+4) 7 19 (+5)
Pensioners 39 (-3) 29 (-7) 13 (+5) 12 (+4) 5 (+1)
Analysis by age (in %)
CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene
18 – 24 25 (-1) 17 (-21) 15 (+5) 12 (+3) 16 (+5)
25 – 34 28 (-1) 17 (-16) 18 (+6) 12 (+3) 14 (+4)
35 – 44 30 (-2) 21 (-13) 16 (+7) 12 (+3) 15 (+4)
45 – 59 30 (-4) 24 (-10) 15 (+6) 15 (+4) 12 (+4)
60+ 42 (-1) 27 (-7) 13 (+4) 10 (+3) 5 (+1)
Politik Aliran?
CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene
Protestant 31 (-2) 29 (-11) 15 (+5) 9 (+3) 12 (+4)
Catholic 45 (-4) 19 (-9) 16 (+6) 6 (+2) 9 (+2)
No confession
22 (+1) 21 (-15) 14 (+4) 23 (+3) 12 (+3)
Reasons for Voting Decisions
CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene Total
Competence
40 (-18) 49 62 (-10) 73 74 55
Candidates 32 (+16)
22 20 (+8) 12 21
Long-term sympathy
24 13 (+0) 15 18
Gains and losses (in %)
CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene
To other parties
- 1.2 million
- 3.7 million
- 130,000
From other parties
+ 870,000 + 1.6 million
+ 1.3 million
+ 860.000
Generational
- 600,000 - 490,000 + 60,000 + 210,000
Mobilisation of voters
- 1.2 million
- 2.1 million
- 110,000 - 350,000
Seat allocation
Coalition Building on the National Level
“Jamaica-coalition”
“Traffic light coalition”
Black Red “Grand Coalition” (1966-69, 2005-09)
Black Yellow (1961-66, 1982-1998) (currently negotiated)
Red Green(1998-2005)
“Social liberal”(1969-1982)
Red Red Green
Negotiating a Coalition
Negotiations
• Location: representative office of German state of NRW
• Time: Until Parliament convenes on 27 October or before 9 November
• 9 FDP reps, 18 CDU/CSU reps
• Result will be a more or less specific contract (1994: 50 pages)
7 working groups discussing 2 ministerial portfolios each• Foreign – Security policy
• Economic and Financial Policies
• Homes Affairs and Law
• …
Traditional practice: No side of the table will gain both resorts of a working group Each working group has two Chairpersons from both camps
Issues
Highly contentious Problematic Less problematic Easy
Home Affairs / Internal Security
Public health
Taxes
Stimulus packages
Nuclear power
Agriculture
Unemployment welfare benefits
Labour policies
Foreign policy
Security Defence
1 Chancellor
15 Ministers
Foreign Affairs / Vice ChancellorHome AffairsLawFinanceEconomics/TechnologyLabour/WelfareNutrition/Agriculture/ Consumer Protection
DefenseFamily/Seniors/Women/YouthHealthTraffic/Works/Urban PlanningEnvironment/Nuclear SafetyEducation/ResearchState Secretariat (Chancellery)Economic Cooperation/Development
Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009
FNS IndonesiaJakarta
06 October 2009