Pollenizer for Ateneo De Manila University (10 Dec 2013)

Harder Better Stronger Faster The extreme pace of disruption and how to survive it

The classifieds business

Whole industries collapsing and forming.

Where Fairfax once stood...

Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle

Seek

Fairfax$7B > $1.5B

Carsales

Disruption is accelerating


The innovation lifecycle is getting shorter.

Innovations have a larger impact.

Time

Imp

act

Music


Humans LOVE music and as technology allows it, we engage with it the way WE want to.

Live

Radio

Vinyl

CD

iTun

es

Spotify

So

un

dcl

ou

d

Time

Imp

act

TV


Once simple to describe as “TV” is fragmenting into thousands of digital channels.

Cinem

a

Broadcast

Cable

DVD

Yo

uT

ub

e, e

tc

Time

Imp

act

What is a ‘media company’ anyway?


The whole idea of a ‘media company’ is fragmenting. Look how big Upworthy grew in 2 years but how long will it last?

http://growthhackers.com/companies/upworthy/

Insta-company


~$40M

13 months

12x returnto angel investors

Centurians: Some $100M AsiaPac startups


Big companies are emerging fast


Facebook is only 9 years old and is worth more than $100B.

It took HP 47 years to break $1B.

http://pando.com/2013/12/07/infographic-one-month-in-how-does-twitter-stack-up-against-other-major-ipos/

Companies are bigger than ever


Big companies in less than 10 yearsSpreets in 9 months

Wow, look at the difference between News Corp and Apple!

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-future-of-digital-2013-2013-11#-8

But nothing lasts forever


http://etfdb.com/history-of-the-s-and-p-500/#2002

“I hate Facebook”


“It’s just so boring” Business Insider - Ignition 2013 - Teen Panel



Short Fuse Big Bang


Deloitte’s study on Australia shows sectors which will have the biggest change in the shortest time.

The Innovator’s Dilemma


Clayton Christensen showed us how disruptive innovation comes from no-where to attack incumbents defending a sustaining business model.

Time

Imp

act

The Innovator’s Dilemma


As time goes on…

Entropy is faster. More companies explode through disruptive curve.

And more are failing.

It’s all happening faster

Time

Imp

act

Startup Scene


In Sydney, Australia alone.

Catalyst Count Created companies

Accelerators/Incubators 6 60+

Hackathons 20+ 200+

We’re making lots and lots of companies and 95% of them don’t survive to Series A capital raising.

Fertile Conditions


Technological changes, economic changes, cultural changes strengthen each other

Technology: empowering


We can build fast.

So much is assembling existing parts. Tools + data

We can reach lots of people

3 billion people online so far

We don’t need deep pockets

Free tools, commoditised

bandwidth, super networks

CostReachComponents

Economics: growing and moving


Half the world now online, Asia becoming the economic centre of gravity.


http://asiancentury.dpmc.gov.au/white-paper/chapter-2/asias-rise-has-further-to-go

Culture: The edge is in charge


It is a p2p web and consumers trust each other, more than companies.

Companies don’t have the control they once had.

Defending a sustaining innovation is no longer a survival strategy


Business models are becoming temporary and fluid.

Time

Imp

act

How can companies survive thrive?


1. Manufacture business models


“21st century corporate survival requires companies to continually create a new set of businesses by inventing new business models.”

David Butler - VP Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Coca-Cola

Time

Imp

act

Startup practice can get a bunch of prototype businesses to the ‘foothills’.

2. Learn. Fast


There is no time to over-think.

Startup “Moneyball” to out-learn the competition.

Count customer interviews, hypotheses tested, hypotheses failed, mentor meetings. #learned

3. Foster entrepreneurial people


The vital last 1% through emotional labour.

Pollenizer: a startup studio

We’ve learned the hard way through investing our own money into more than 20 startups.

Startup science

Build Measure

Learn


Startups have created a management discipline that works

in a big company as well as a garage


A startup is a temporary state, learning what it is and who it is for

Search Execute

Startups do this Companies do this


Webvan failed to learn

● Raised $800 million and flamed out in 24 months.

● It failed to ask who it’s customer was and prove it before investing in growth.

● It failed to learn.


Color failed to learn

● Beautiful, incomplete product● No business model● $41M capital● All over in under 1 year● It failed to learn

How Color prematurely

scaled


http://blog.startupcompass.co/a-deep-dive-into-the-anatomy-of-premature-sca






What lean startups do

The true product of an entrepreneur is not the solution, but a working business model.

The real job of an entrepreneur is to systematically de-risk that business model over time.

Ash Maurya / Spark59


This is a helpful idea for big companies


Big companies do this...

Requirements

Build

Launch

Maintain

Design


What happens if this bit is wrong?

Requirements

Build

Launch

Maintain

Design


Startups do this...

Build Measure

Product

DataIdeas


Learn

We call it ‘validated learning’

Build Measure

Learn

Product

DataIdeas

“Startups that succeed are those that iterate enough times before running out of

resources” Eric Ries


Balancing intuition and scientific method


The startup lifecycle

The Marmer Stages

1. DiscoveryProblem Solution Fit

2. ValidationProduct Market Fit

3. EfficiencyReady to scale

Skip a stage, and the chances are your startup will fail


http://blog.startupcompass.co/pages/marmer-stages

http://blog.startupcompass.co/pages/marmer-stages

Evidence

Over 30,000 startups studied for patterns of success and failure


The most common cause of

failure is self destruction through premature scaling

No startup that scaled prematurely reached 100,000 users

Few startup that scaled prematurely reached $100,000 monthly revenue

Startups that develop consistently grow 20X faster

This has an impact on valuation

What’s your next move?
