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A layman's perspective on the emerging polar political economy and how climate change in the Arctic will be a driving factor in the development of polar politics and economic change.
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Gordon M. Groat
Polar Political Economics
1/1/2013
2013Polar Political Economy Climate Change and the Arctic
DEDICATION
To my Friends and Family,
With each new avenue to examine there was a new commitment. I'm keenly aware that
time is short for all of us, so I thank you with all my heart for your patience and tolerance
as I wandered through these doorways of discovery. The doors have opened to the Arctic
on more than one occasion. It is only through the love and genuine caring of my friends
and family that I have been able to make my way through life's journey.
My lovely wife and daughter bring me joy and happiness each day, and the joy of my own
family is translated to my extended family from several countries. I own a debt of
gratitude to everybody and I humbly thank you all for your inspiration and humanity.
Special thanks to Mom... a source of the most exceptional inspiration and the person who
succinctly reminded me...
"Just finish it before all the information melts"
With love, adoration, and respect,
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Dedication.................................................................................................................................. 1
Table of Abbreviations...............................................................................................................7
Part I Climate Change................................................................................................................9
Climate Change from 30,000 Feet.............................................................................................9
Isotope Finger Prints................................................................................................................ 11
The Interconnected Earth........................................................................................................11
Governments and Climate Adaptation.....................................................................................12
Science Mash........................................................................................................................... 13
Atmospheric CO2 Levels...........................................................................................................14
Long Term Gases..................................................................................................................... 16
Short Term Gases.................................................................................................................... 18
Ice Core Samples..................................................................................................................... 19
CO2 Projections to the 22nd Century........................................................................................20
Subsurface Sedimentary Samples...........................................................................................23
Rising Sea Surface Temperatures............................................................................................23
Ocean Acidification..................................................................................................................24
The Great Ocean Conveyor System.........................................................................................26
The Jet Stream Impact.............................................................................................................29
Yucatan Current & Gulf Stream................................................................................................31
COP18 – DOHA UN Report on Permafrost Thawing..................................................................33
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Permafrost Positive Feedback Loop.........................................................................................34
Planetary Scale Positive Feedback Loop..................................................................................35
Part II Arctic Climate Change...................................................................................................36
Rate of Change in the Arctic....................................................................................................36
Reduction of Arctic Ice.............................................................................................................39
The Greenland Ice Sheet..........................................................................................................39
Imagery of Greenland..............................................................................................................40
Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits and Methane...................................................44
Part III –Wildlife........................................................................................................................ 47
Changing Patterns................................................................................................................... 47
Seals and Walrus..................................................................................................................... 47
Whales..................................................................................................................................... 48
Caribou and Muskox................................................................................................................ 49
Salmon and Char..................................................................................................................... 50
Polar Bears............................................................................................................................... 51
Waterfowl and Birds.................................................................................................................52
Commercial Fishing.................................................................................................................52
Part IV Arctic Political Economy...............................................................................................53
Arctic Political Economy – North America................................................................................53
Federal constraints in Alaska...................................................................................................56
Economic Opportunity.............................................................................................................56
Asia Pacific / North America / Europe.......................................................................................59
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UNCLOS – USN & USCG Perspective.........................................................................................60
U.S. UNCLOS Issues - Undersea Mining and the International Seabed Authority.....................62
The Kyoto Backdoor.................................................................................................................63
Arctic Rare Earth Elements, Hydrocarbons, and Minerals........................................................64
Economics of Transarctic Shipping..........................................................................................66
Arctic Gateways of North America...........................................................................................67
Asia Pacific Gateway................................................................................................................69
Arctic Gateway......................................................................................................................... 72
Part V Arctic Council................................................................................................................ 73
Permanent Participants............................................................................................................73
Arctic Athabaskan Council.......................................................................................................75
Aleut International association.................................................................................................76
Gwich’in Council International.................................................................................................76
Inuit circumpolar council..........................................................................................................77
Russian Association of Indigenous peoples of the north..........................................................77
Saami council........................................................................................................................... 77
Council Members..................................................................................................................... 78
Russian Federation..................................................................................................................78
United States........................................................................................................................... 79
Canada..................................................................................................................................... 80
Iceland..................................................................................................................................... 81
Norway..................................................................................................................................... 82
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Sweden.................................................................................................................................... 83
Finland..................................................................................................................................... 84
Denmark.................................................................................................................................. 84
Arctic Council Observer Status................................................................................................85
Non Arctic Observers of the Arctic Council..............................................................................85
Intergovernmental and Inter-parliamentary............................................................................85
Non Governmental Organizations (NGO).................................................................................86
Applicants for Observer Status................................................................................................86
China........................................................................................................................................ 87
Italy.......................................................................................................................................... 89
Japan........................................................................................................................................ 89
Republic of Korea..................................................................................................................... 90
Singapore................................................................................................................................. 90
India......................................................................................................................................... 91
European Union....................................................................................................................... 91
Oceana..................................................................................................................................... 92
Association of Oil and Gas Producers.......................................................................................92
OSPAR Commission.................................................................................................................. 93
Greenpeace............................................................................................................................. 94
International Hydrographic Organisation.................................................................................94
World Meteorological Organization..........................................................................................94
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists.............................................................................95
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Arctic Council and Arctic Circle................................................................................................95
Part VI Geo Strategic Influence................................................................................................96
Strategic Relationships............................................................................................................97
Polar Class Icebreakers and Polar Transportation....................................................................99
Arctic Summits....................................................................................................................... 100
Ties That Bind........................................................................................................................ 102
Search and Rescue and Oil Spill Response Overview.............................................................103
Search and Rescue and Oil Spill Response............................................................................103
Oil Spill Response..................................................................................................................104
Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev Ridge...............................................................................106
Government Relations at Different Levels.............................................................................107
Initiatives of the People.........................................................................................................109
Thoughts and Observations...................................................................................................110
Bibliography........................................................................................................................... 112
Table of Figures..................................................................................................................... 121
6
TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS
Abbreviation
Meaning
AHA Arctic Himalaya AntarcticAIA Aleut International AssociationAMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment ProgrammeANWR Arctic National Wildlife RefugeAPGC Aggregate Planetary Glacial CoverageAPECS Association of Polar Early Career ScientistsBLM Bureau of Land ManagementCALM Circumpolar Active Layer MonitoringCFC's ChlorofluorocarbonsCO2 Carbon dioxideDEW Line Defense Early Warning LineEEZ Exclusive Economic ZoneEIA Edmonton International AirportESAS Eastern Siberian Arctic ShelfEU European UnionGHG Greenhouse GasGWP Greenhouse Warming PotentialHCFC's hydrochlorofluorocarbonsHFC's hydrofluorocarbonsIHO International Hydrographic OrganisationISA International Seabed AuthorityKOGAS Korean Gas CompanyLNG Liquid Natural GasN2O Nitrous oxideNATO North Atlantic Treaty OrganizationNCAOR National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean ResearchNGO Non Governmental OrganizationNPR National Petroleum ReserveOGP Association of Oil and Gas ProducersOSPAR Oslo Paris CommissionOSR Oil Spill ResponsePFC's perfluorocarbonsPFL Positive Feedback LoopPPFL Permafrost Positive Feedback LoopPSPFL Planetary Scale Positive Feedback LooppH Parts Hydrogenppm Parts Per Million
7
REE Rare Earth ElementSAR Search and RescueSARC Search and Rescue ConventionSF6 Sulfur hexafluorideSST Sea Surface TemperatureTAPS Trans Alaska Pipeline SystemTSP Thermal State of PermafrostUSSR Union of Soviet Socialist RepublicsWMO World Meteorological Organization
8
PART I CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate Change from 30,000 Feet
There can be little doubt that climate change is a growing concern. News of dramatic
storm events continually adds to public awareness of climate change.
The idea that climate change contributes to storm events has drawn the attention of the
reinsurance industry. Munich Reinsurance a.k.a. Munich RE, is the World’s largest
reinsurance company. Munich RE provides insurance to insurance companies. Dr. Peter
Hoeppe, Head of Geo Risks Research for Munich RE points out that a large part of the
Munich RE business model is to provide insurance for natural catastrophes and
environment related claims. As such, it is quite important for Munich RE business model
to have a strong understanding of the risks involved.
Munich RE insurance data on U.S. weather event damage since 1980 reveals both number
of events and claim values of events have been rising steadily across categories;
droughts, forest fires, floods, and storms. The insurance industry is estimated to control
approximately 25 trillion USD in assets, roughly equivalent to the global pension funds or
mutual funds (Mills, 2012). The influence of reinsurance companies in global markets
represents a considerable influence on markets and implies appropriate resourcing to
secure extraordinarily robust capacity for risk analysis.
Extending to a more historical view, Earth has been going through climate change events
since the beginning of time. There have, for some time, been different pockets of
agreement and large gaps between science and the wider public. Some postulate the
science just isn’t settled on the matter of climate change and suggest there’s no
widespread agreement. Other arguments suggest there is really no way to know, with
9
certainty, if mankind has really had any measurable impact on the climate. This, of
course, begs the question; if mankind has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change,
why would we even worry about it at all? After all, invoking that logic, this would all be
just a natural cycle for the planet and mankind would have no ability to influence what
transpires.
We have all heard the cornerstone arguments of climate change skeptics many times
over the years. While growing attention certainly raises the discussion to new levels, there
will always be some people who are just not interested in exploring the science. There
are those who will argue that without complete certainty, no arguments and no policy
should be made. And of course, there are those who would insist that while the planet is
obviously quite variable and that some amount of climate change is a result of input and
output models, both are increasing in rate of growth and power due to primarily natural
causes. Finally, anthropogenic forcing of carbon as a climate change driver, remains
completely off the table for some people as their argument is centered on the premise
that either there is no anthropogenic contribution to climate change or that any
anthropogenic input is, simply stated, entirely insignificant and irrelevant.
Science itself, however, tends to speak for itself. Science generally has to start at a
certain point where most information about a subject is largely unknown, it then
progresses to a stage where most of the information becomes known and can be
empirically proven. The concept that climate change is being accelerated by
anthropogenic causes is somewhere on that scale of certainty, but scientists seem to
overwhelmingly agree that it is a lot closer to the proven side rather than the disproven
side. In other words, this isn’t an all or none bet, but the writing certainly seems to be on
the wall as widespread scientific agreement continues to grow.
10
At some point, it should seem obvious that given the enormous complexity of climate
research and the multiplicity of sciences involved, that policy makers shall need to
grapple with the issue of finding the balance of evidence. In other words, at what point is
there enough information for policy makers to be satisfied that climate change has an
anthropogenic component?
This book is simply a layman's attempt to examine some of the different sciences that
inform climate change. What matters, really, is how the reader chooses to think about
climate change and decide for themselves if they believe anthropogenic inputs matter
and if so, what would their position be on policy designed to reduce anthropogenic inputs.
Assuming society decide to become focused on climate change and create an impetus for
policy change, it must be remembered that the economic growth of the developing World
will be an important component of policy development. Countries highly dependent on
hydrocarbon fuel will not be likely to choose to go backwards in their development, so
those roads will need to be negotiated and they will produce enormous challenges.
Developing countries must be allowed the opportunity for growth and the aspiration to
reduce poverty.
Isotope Finger Prints
Mankind has been creating an impact from the very beginning of course. When mankind
began the process of deforestation to move forward as an agricultural society, larger
anthropogenic impacts began to take place. The industrial age ushered in an era of
accelerated impact. But how do we measure that?
Of all the logic, implications, and inferences that science
gives us regarding climate change, one particularly fascinating aspect is isotope
measurement of carbon. Isotope measurement is quite interesting insomuch as it
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provides a way to associate the anthropogenic fingerprint on climate change. Through
isotope measurement, we can tell, with a great degree of certainty, what caused the CO2.
Since CO2 from burning fossil fuels and burning forests have a different isotopic
composition from CO2 in the atmosphere, the calculated rations of CO2 in the atmosphere
allow for an analysis of the amount of naturally occurring CO2 and anthropogenic CO2. In
short, it’s a scientific method to fingerprint the amount of human driven contribution. The
results point to measureable anthropogenic carbon forcing as having a contributory effect
on climate change (Stuiver, et al., 1984).
The Interconnected Earth
Planetary climate change is a massive subject and finds intersections with numerous
sciences. Throughout the interconnected matrix of science, the recurring theme of
mankind’s impact upon the Earth’s atmosphere remains a constant. The only thing to
determine is to what extent human activity impacts our atmosphere, and what the
ramifications of those impacts are.
As climate change challenges science to arrive at answers, more and more integration of
planetary systems have become increasingly obvious to science. Interconnected systems
and their impacts upon each other have revealed a complexity that continues to morph
and grow. As those complexities grow, the ramifications of what science can tell us about
the interconnectedness of our earth systems will continue to inform the overall
understanding of climate change. Advancement of the study of climate change will
continue to expand our understanding of anthropogenic impacts upon the planet.
Governments and Climate Adaptation
Having attended a number of conferences where climate change was a central theme of
the dialogue, it’s quite obvious the global concerns extend well beyond the potential for
12
climate change to impact individual societies. The largest concerns now, it seems, have
shifted into an adaptation model.
Discussions relative to displaced populations, economic costs associated with change, and
how the global community should move forward, require a logical balancing of substantial
costs, benefits, and consequences.
The discussions and costs associated with climate change manifest themselves in a
variety of ways with one of the more visible impacts being large scale storm events.
Single storm events and the damage caused by them, are a phenomena of growing
intensity and frequency. Severe weather events and the increasing quantity of those
events have marked our recent memory.
While some debate different aspects of the science, there are few in the scientific
community who will insist there is nothing to be concerned about, fewer still in the
insurance industry. The U.S. insurance industry experienced 32 some billion in storm
related claims in 2011 (Jergler, 2012).
It’s quite understandable the insurance industry is intensely interested in climate change.
It is, in fact, an enormously important part of the core interests of the reinsurance
industry because it has a very direct financial impact upon their business. As industry
and public become more focused on climate change, governments will follow suit as a
matter of representing the broad balance of opinions within society.
Different levels of government and government planners are paying more attention to be
sure their infrastructure projects are able to withstand the impact of climate change
(Ontario, 2012). This is a matter of adaptation and requiring investment and it is,
therefore, a matter of interest to the taxpayers who funds these investments. As the rate
of climate change increases, regardless of cause, a cascading raft of implications will
13
impact mankind, and that impact will be felt, in some manner, everywhere although the
most severe consequences are not predicted to be distributed evenly. In other words,
rising sea levels are predicted to impact low lying coastal areas in advance of other areas.
Currently, as the effects of climate change impact the high latitudes first, the issue of
climate changes refugees is becoming a reality in the Circumpolar World along low lying
coastal areas, such as we see in places like Newtok, Alaska (Goldenberg, 2013).
Science Mash
As the rate of sea level rises, the risk of storm surge damage grows also, creating
large scale potential for significant damage in costal locations. The range of
science is as impressive as the ramifications of the subject matter, and by
mashing up the science; we find the accelerating rate of climate change is
amplified by positive feedback loops (PFL). In other words, as more CO2
accumulates in the atmosphere, the warmer air temperatures become. As air
temperatures rise, faster ice melting and evaporation will generate more moisture
in the atmosphere, which is in and of itself a greenhouse gas. All of these lead to
increased significant weather events.
Increased temperatures also accelerate ice melt in the polar regions. In the Arctic
Ocean, as the ice melts there is more dark water to absorb energy, this in turn
adds to melting due to warmer sea surface temperatures. Understanding the
PFL’s and how they interact with each other will lead to an enhanced
understanding of the cumulative effect of PFL’s and how that accelerates the rate
of climate change. The accelerating rate of climate change due to the PFL’s
encourage the use of coupled climate models in order to generate more predictive
models when solving for potential outcomes of climate change (Cox, 2000).
14
Atmospheric CO2 Levels
Transitioning into the 21st century, there has been an ongoing scientific debate
where climate change is concerned. As more science is evaluated, it has become
increasingly obvious that the climate is changing dramatically. One of the films
that helped shift the conversation from scientific communities more squarely into
the public mainstream was Al Gore’s film entitled "An Inconvenient Truth".
An Inconvenient Truth won two Academy Awards, twenty three other awards, and
garnered 24 million in U.S. box office receipts, 26 million in foreign box office
receipts, and is the 9th highest grossing documentary film to date (IMDb, 2006).
Clearly, there were many people who were interested in the subject.
In the film, the central theme is the growth of anthropogenic global carbon dioxide
emissions. The parts per million (ppm) of CO2 as recorded by observation posts
around the World are graphed to show the historic patters of CO2 in the
atmosphere. Since 2008, the amount of atmospheric CO2 recorded at the Mauna
Loa Observatory site recorded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration has risen from about 385 parts per million (ppm) to 391 ppm as of
October 2012 (NOAA, 2012).
15
Figure 1 - NOAA 2009 - 2014 CO2 Levels
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Trending over the last few years is consistent with trending noticed since accurate
monitoring of atmospheric CO2 levels began at Mauna Loa. Observations have
taken place at Mauna Loa since shortly after the midpoint of the 20th century and
reveal a steady climb from around 318 ppm to the current levels that are
approaching 400 ppm. The 400 ppm mark (NOAA, 2013) was reached in May of
2013, recording a milestone in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Continued emissions from anthropogenic sources do not constitute the largest
percentage of the normal global carbon cycle, but the portion is considerable. As
16
the levels of CO2 raise, the overall amount in the atmosphere continues to grow.
Due to the sheer amount of CO2 emissions exceeding the capacity of planetary
carbon sinks, the Earth's ability to remove CO2 is being overwhelmed. This excess
over capacity to remove is commonly referred to as carbon forcing and is a
contributing factor to the rise in atmospheric CO2 ppm growth.
The clear evidence of longitudinal carbon forcing has been measured in numerous
locations globally, with the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii being quite well
known.
Figure 2 - Atmospheric CO2 Mauna Loa since the mid-20th Century
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Long Term Gases
17
The reason CO2 gets so much attention given the wide range of anthropogenic
greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, is the fact that it will last and
persist in the atmosphere for a thousands of years. Global Warming Potential
(GWP) is a calculation for greenhouse gases (GHG) potential to impact climate
change.
The GWP is a way of measuring the amount of energy from solar radiation that the
gas can absorb over a period of time, usually over one hundred years, and the
length of time it will remain in the atmosphere. Because CO2 is by far the most
prevalent GHG in Earth’s atmosphere, the GWP model sets CO2 as 1, where all
other GHG’s are evaluated compared to CO2. Calculating the potential of the gas
and adjusting for the length of time it remains in the atmosphere creates a metric
that gives us a reference with which to compare different gases.
Methane has a GWP more than 20 times higher than CO2 as measured on a 100
year time scale. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is about 300 times higher than CO2 and lasts
for more than 100 years in the atmosphere. Other gases that contain chlorine or
fluorine and have high GWP ratings are perfluorocarbons (PFCs),
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs), and Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) are all called high-GWP gases because, for a
given amount of mass, they trap substantially more heat than CO2 does. (IPCC,
2007).
Some paleoclimatologists, however, warn that atmospheric CO2 is quite
misunderstood. Essentially, the largest area of complexity has to do with the way
the gas is taken up in various Earth systems, especially the oceans since they are
18
the largest carbon sink on the planet. Some of the gas is taken up by the ocean,
thus creating the possibility that some of the gas may only be exposed to the
atmosphere for a relatively short period of time, possibly measured in just a few
years. Yet much of the gas is released back into the atmosphere from the oceans.
This, in turn, creates an argument that CO2 may linger in the atmosphere for
centuries or even millennia. From the layman's perspective, this seems to be a
splitting of the chemical hairs and of little useful interest. What people really want
to know is, on the whole, how long does the gas exist in the atmosphere, not what
kind of arguments we can make that reflect challenges to the scientific minutiae of
climate change drivers.
Probably the best way to describe the overall lifetime residue of CO2 in the
atmosphere is characterized by some portion of it being removed in a short period
of time, say a few decades, and some of it may remain in the atmosphere for
millennia. There is no precise way to isolate and define exactly what percentage
of CO2 remains in the atmosphere and for what amount of time. What we can say,
however, is that a portion of the CO2 forced into the atmosphere in excess of what
can be removed by planetary carbon sinks will last for centuries or millennia. The
long persistence of CO2 is what creates such interest in the gas and is also why
science carries such a strong interest in CO2 emissions.
Short Term Gases
Gases that last a relatively short time in the atmosphere can do significant
damage, like methane (CH4), but for only a relatively short period of time (ranges
from 10 to 12 years). Within the range of GHG’s, the PFC’s, CFC’s, HFC’s, and
19
HCFC’s can exhibit both short term and long term ranges, depending on the
composition. These may range from a few years of persistence, such as Methyl
chloroform at 5 years, to Sulfur hexafluoride at 3,200 years and PFC-116 at 10,000
years to PFC-14 at 50,000 years.
Some of the most widely used high impact short term GHG’s are covered under
the Montreal Protocol (UN, 1987) which has demonstrated that unified
international agreements on limits combined with movement into less harmful
technologies has had a positive impact on atmospheric levels of these gases. In
other words, it is possible to make a difference if the global community is prepared
to make agreements and observe them.
Quite often, however, large sweeping international agreements like Kyoto have or
imply substantial implications for national economic impact and costs. This can
become highly politicized depending on the prevailing national economic
conditions at the time, and in addition, the overall capacity of signatories to
sustain protracted economic hardships. It’s rarely as simple as embracing the
best scientific decision based on the science we know about the short term and
long term gases.
Ice Core Samples
It is possible to examine atmospheric levels of CO2 prior to the start of 20th century
monitoring. To do this, we examine ice core samples. In ice core samples, small
air pockets that were formed thousands of years ago can now be analyzed with
modern technology. Scientists are able to secure ice core samples and evaluate
20
the gas composition within those air pockets. This gives us a way to look back in
time and plot the atmospheric CO2 in ppm across tens of thousands years.
Numerous studies have been conducted that suggest for that records dating back
a millennia are fairly consistent in peaks of less than 300ppm, usually around
285ppm. The measurement of ppm CO2 in the atmosphere correlates to mean
temperature analysis projections and is well documented over the course of the
last couple of centuries.
In order to have a more meaningful overview of the nature of CO2 ppm
measurements, a study of ice cores from the Antarctic were undertaken. Three
sites were selected and sampled, DE08, DEO8-2, and DSS ice-cores (Etheridge, et
al., 1988). The ice cores were analyzed and results plotted using a graph of 75
year intervals to smooth the graph for a more meaningful presentation; the
analysis correlates with other ice core analysis studies taken from the Antarctic.
The main implication of ice core sample analysis is that at approximately the
onset of the industrial age, when humans began burning large amounts of coal to
fuel factories and transportation systems, the rise of atmospheric CO2 began to
climb in a manner that is an anomaly compared to data from older sections of ice
cores. The rising CO2 ppm counts in the atmosphere have been rising
dramatically, ice cores show this. Ice core sample data shows that since the
1800’s CO2 ppm has been rising at a faster rate than ever before recorded, and it
is growing faster each year.
21
During that same time, a general warming of the planet has been noted because
CO2 obviously acts as a GHG that increases heat in the atmosphere.
Figure 3 - Law Dome Historical Ice Core CO2 Samples 75 Years Smoothed
Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratories
Soviet era scientists also engaged in Antarctic ice core sampling. In one of their
studies, a 160,000 year record was identified in the Vostok ice core samples,
taken in the Eastern Antarctic. The extensive Vostok ice-core sample provides
correlation between pre-industrial CO2 levels and rising post-industrial CO2. It also
provides cyclic changes evident over a period of approximately 21 thousand
years, in line with orbital procession (Barnola, et al., 1987).
22
CO2 Projections to the 22nd Century
The projections of CO2 emissions through the remainder of the 21st century are
substantial. Even with efforts to mitigate emissions, the ramifications imply
increased temperatures which mean the planet will continue to shed ice. A recent
study led by Nadine Unger of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS),
breaks down CO2 emissions by expected sector release through to 2013. In this
way, it is hoped a more intuitive understanding of which human activities may be
creating the most significant amount of CO2 emissions through the rest of the 21st
century. The result of the finding is that ground transportation is likely to be the
single most significant source of CO2 emissions through the rest of the 21st
century.
23
Figure 4 - GISS CO2 Emissions to 2100 by Category
Source : http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100218a/
As transportation continues to fuel the global economy, our structures related to
logistics and supply chains are constantly reinforcing land based on-road
transportation. As the tonnage of goods interchanged across global supply chains
continues to grow, it seems likely that securing increasingly efficient
transportation alternatives compared to current day fossil fuel transportation will
continue to grow in importance.
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Figure 5 - Climate Impacts to 2100 by Industry Mw
Source : http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100218a/
It can also be argued that by understanding the sector where we can anticipate
the greatest expansion of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, we can more effectively
create alternative models to move our goods through our global supply chain with
ever increasing fuel efficiency and alternative fuels, something that is now starting
to emerge with the rise of inland ports and fuel efficient rail to truck transportation
infrastructure. That said, the on-road component is mainly encouraged by the
design of the automobile society and the proverbial urban commute. As mass
transportation and metropolitan design reduces the requirement of people to
25
undertake commuting, the global impact of CO2 emissions can be significantly
reduced, or at least the rate of growth can be limited.
Subsurface Sedimentary Samples
Another interesting branch of research examines the occurrence of multiple rare
isotope substitutions in biologically precipitated carbonate materials. This method
is yielding information to researchers studying subsurface sedimentary samples in
different locations. Using the approach of carbonate clumped isotope
thermometry; researchers develop an understanding of past climates.
Research conducted and currently under review was done to gather a marker
based on the Early Pliocene era when CO2 levels were at levels near levels
recorded in recent years (the 365-415ppm range). Research to analyze
temperatures during that period were conducted at the Early Pliocene Beaver
Pond site on Ellesmere Island and the results indicate it was between 11-18 C
warmer than present day temperatures in the May-Sep timeframe (Csank, et al.,
n.d.).
Extending our understanding of biologically precipitated carbonate materials has
considerable value as an important component to understanding the past and
current status of the oceans. Oceanic content of CO2 is about fifty times larger
than the atmosphere and about ten times larger than estimates of plant and soil
carbon sinks. This is such a massive number because the oceanic reservoir is so
vast and CO2 diffuses across the air-sea boundary into seawater (Field, et al.,
2004). The ocean is the largest carbon sink on our planet.
26
Rising Sea Surface Temperatures
Rising sea surface temperatures (SST) contribute to the amount of available
atmospheric water vapor and this, of course, impacts global climate conditions.
The amount of SST change is part of the complex global climate equation also
impacted by aggregate planetary glacial coverage (APGC). In addition to the
Arctic and Antarctic, APGC is recession. The loss of ice across the Arctic,
Himalayas, and Antarctic (AHA) and other parts of the globe are cause to strongly
consider that increased moisture availability combined with atmospheric forcing;
along with decreased polar ice size constitutes part of a PFL that in addition to
raising sea levels, may accelerate the rate of SST increases (Bony, et al., 1997).
SST impacts oceanic environment and global climate systems in ways that may be
difficult to quantify, but there is little doubt all of these issues are growing to
create a nexus of scientific evidence that supports the reality that completely
modeling the entirety of the planet climate is likely as close to an impossible task
as would be humanly possible, but understanding that SST’s accelerate climate
change would generate little argument.
Ocean Acidification
Ocean acidification poses a considerable issue as well. As carbon dioxide levels
rise, the planetary mechanisms to overcome this are what we call carbon sinks.
Carbon sinks take many forms from the jungles of the Amazon to trees in our own
backyard. The largest carbon sinks, as previously outlined, are the oceans.
As more carbon dioxide enters the ocean, the parts of hydrogen (pH) are reduced
in a normal chemical process. This process is akin to the respiratory system of a
27
human being. Human pH range is normally 7.35 to 7.45 which is measured with
an arterial blood sample and is directly correlated to carbon monoxide levels
which are regulated by the cardiopulmonary system. Failure to maintain the
proper pH range in the blood can result in serious medical issues and can even
potentially result in death.
We do not know precisely what the range is for normal oceanic health, but it is
safe to assume there will be substantial complications should pH move beyond
normal levels. In the case of the ocean, reduced pH is called acidification. In a
human patient, this would be called acidosis. In both cases, serious consequences
are likely results.
Because the Oceans represent the largest carbon sink on the Earth, the
importance of the Oceans to CO2 removal cannot be understated. It has been
suggested that since the industrial revolution, oceans have become approximately
30% more acidic, with some scientists suggesting that level could rise dramatically
by the end of the 21st century.
Oceanic acidification effectively interrupts the ability of a wide variety of oceanic
life to produce protective shells through the use of calcium carbonate. This, in
turn, negatively impacts the calcifying organisms’ ability to reproduce and is
known to have negative health impacts on numerous organisms. Phytoplankton
and various species of invertebrates like sponges, mollusks, worms, and
crustaceans are all affected. These impacts modify and shift mobile undersea life
forms as they adapt and/or move in response to acidification. This, in turn,
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impacts the rest of the food chain and can have a negative impact on indigenous
subsistence, culture, and traditions as sea life patterns shift to adapt and survive.
Different global locations report “bleaching” of coral reefs and this is widely
understood to be a result of the thermal tolerance of corals and their
photosynthetic symbionts (zooxanthellae) being exceeded (Hoegh-Guldberg,
1999). Changes in sea temperatures accelerate this process and large scale coral
reef bleaching events are likely to become even more common place events over
the next few decades.
Most researchers believe the ability to adapt will not be fast enough to avoid a
severe declination of coral reefs in the planetary oceans, resulting in an enormous
decline in the health of the Earth’s reefs. This is likely to be very pronounced and
could cause significant problems, especially for tropical marine ecosystems.
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AAMAP) released a statement
through the Arctic Council that points to an Arctic that is rapidly accumulating CO2
which is leading to an accelerated rate of acidification. This is a particularly
challenging situation because CO2 is more readily absorbed into cold water and
the addition of the freshwater content due to the melting glacial ice is reducing
the ability of the ocean to neutralize the acidification process. Because Arctic food
chains are relatively simple, it is thought the Arctic will sustain dramatic changes
at an accelerated rate compared to many other parts of the World. (Council, 2013)
Arctic ecosystem changes are taking place at an accelerated rate compared to
many other parts of the World. It is thought the changes taking place on
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numerous fronts across the Circumpolar World are likely to cross a threshold that
would cause irreversible changes to entire ecosystems, environmental processes,
and thus, have dramatic impact on Arctic societies. (Centre, 2013)
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The Great Ocean Conveyor System
The great ocean conveyor system has long been known to distribute warm and
cold water globally.
Figure 6 - Great Ocean Conveyor Belt
Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/ocean/circulation.htm
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The traditional ocean conveyor is thought to be integrally involved with global
weather patterns. In 2009, Duke University and Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institute announced what they believe to be a challenge to the way we think about
the great ocean conveyor system (Woods Hole, 2009). The complete function of
the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt is not entirely understood although it is widely
believed to be of considerable importance to global climate conditions.
Figure 7 - North Atlantic Circulation
Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/legrande_01/
As new science is emerging, it is likely this system will also be found to have
considerable effect on what happens with global climate change.
As surface and near surface water temperatures continue to rise, it is impossible
to predict what impact this will have on the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt and how it
may interact with other aspects of Global Climate Change. The science relative to
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this system is still relatively new. How Climate Change impacts the Conveyer and
vice-versa is an area of science only relatively recently explored. Fundamentally,
it is understood that thermohaline currents have a significant impact on the
constant motion of the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt (NOAA, 2013). Cold water has
higher salinity properties and is denser than warm water. As such, the cold salty
water sinks to the bottom while warm less dense water rises. As the Gulf Stream
warm water heats the atmosphere in the northern latitudes, the heat coming out
of the water causes the northern waters to cool and, therefore, sink. Warm water
from the Gulf Stream displaces the colder waters. As the conveyor makes its way
south closer to the bottom of the ocean and near Antarctica, the waters are quite
cold. These waters eventually warm as they move through the tropics on their
way north, thus rising to the surface. It is estimated that it takes approximately a
millennia for the water to make a complete circle of the globe.
In the grand scheme of things, there is no way of predicting if an interruption of
the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt is likely to occur, but it is presumed that if it does
occur, the ramifications to the global climate could be quite dramatic. It is
possible that a shifting of the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt could precipitate an
extremely cold period across the northern latitudes.
The Jet Stream Impact
As scientists examine the jet stream and the impact that climate change is having
on the jet stream, there evolved a possible explanation of the enormous size of
the high pressure weather system that was trapped over the Greenland Ice Sheet.
This is thought to be related to unusual changes in the jet stream, in particular,
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related to the increasing peaks and troughs. The wave contours of jet stream look
a bit like a wavy line until they compress and elongate, taking the shape of a
compressed amplitude signal. This phenomenon tends to allow storms to linger in
place rather than moving more rapidly across their normal west to east route
across the continents.
Dr. Jennifer Francis, a climate researcher from Rutgers University, has spent the
last 15 years specializing in the study of how the atmosphere is affected by the
changes in the Arctic climate and in particular, examining the changes due to
massive losses of Arctic ice. Her research and that of other scientists has created
in interesting view of how climate change, and in particular, how Arctic climate
change is impacting the jet stream and how that, in turn, impacts the weather in
the Northern Hemisphere.
Warming of the Arctic, according to her hypothesis, suggests a general weakening
of the jet stream. As the jet stream weakens, it compresses the wave like patterns
and lengthens the patterns on a north south direction. These phenomena,
ostensibly caused by warming arctic temperatures, can contribute to the
exacerbation of blocking patterns.
As blocking patterns become stronger, the conditions such as the high pressure
“warm” air that held fast over the Greenland Ice Sheet, was there long enough
and strong enough to cause a huge acceleration of surface melt to the point where
almost the entire surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet was under some level of
melt. During periods of a normal jet stream, this would be unheard of.
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As the jet stream tightens up and lengthens out, there will be further distribution
of exacerbations of normal weather conditions. The cold can go further south just
as the heat may go further north. The waves in the jet stream also tend to
become elongated with the peaks of the waves extending further north. This
research indicates we can expect weather patterns to slow, which means extreme
weather may tend to linger longer, thereby exacerbating weather events. If it’s a
drought, it may stay dry longer, likewise, if it’s a snowstorm, it may snow longer
and harder. If it's a rain event, the rain could last longer in a single area, creating
enormous overcapacity for river basins and, hence, creating increased potential
for flooding. These observations also have ramifications for accelerating the ice
melt in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.
Interestingly, Dr. Francis superimposed the high level jet stream data onto maps
that correlate to times when recent major storm events, such as recent hurricanes
and other large and unusually powerful storm events in recent years. Her initial
finding was a very strong correlation to these elongated wave patterns as
predicted by her theory. Even the recent flooding of 2013 in Alberta, when I
pulled the data for the jet stream, showed the same wave form pattern, called
Rossby Waves, were present in the rocky mountains to the west of Alberta in the
days immediately before and during the onset of flooding events. (Groat, 2013)
Yucatan Current & Gulf Stream
Probably the first time the Gulf Stream was accurately mapped out, it was done by
Benjamin Franklin. Because of the Gulf Stream, areas such as the British Isles
enjoy moderated temperatures, especially during the winter months, causing
35
temperatures to be relatively moderate. Scientists are investigating what appears
to be a reduction in the Gulf Stream, and more importantly, how the Gulf Stream
may possibly impact the Jet Stream, especially in the North Atlantic.
Interruption of the Gulf Stream can be caused by a number of reasons, but there is
no clear and identifiable obvious data set that can prove precisely why there are
changes in the Gulf Stream that has caused it to start shifting normal flow
patterns.
Some researchers have suggested the massive amounts of COREXIT used as a
disbursement agent on the oil spill caused from the infamous accident on the
Deepwater Horizon. Numerous studies have been conducted; one of the findings
was that while the disbursement seemed to function, it created smaller droplets of
oil that moved in a large plume at depths in the Gulf.
It is thought, by some, that there may be some possibility that unknown effects
from the Deepwater Horizon and the chemicals used may have played a part in
interrupting more than expected. COREXIT application is thought to have
generated significant enough outcomes and to have generated sufficient sized
undersea oil plumes to interfere with the Gulf Stream and, by extrapolation, this
could impact the ocean conveyor system. There were also concerns raised about
deepwater deployment of COREXIT.
When the undersea oil plum was discovered, researchers sampled different depths
including the depth where they encountered the oil plume, pronounced between
1,100 and 1,300 meters. When the content of the plumes were sent for analysis, the
findings showed a heavy concentration of six hydrocarbons out of more than one hundred 36
compounds tested for. As it turned out, a preponderance of six petroleum
hydrocarbon compounds were found: benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and
xylenes—a group commonly known as BTEX. Understanding why these BTEX was
present and many other chemicals were not caused researchers to expect
thousands of compounds from the Deepwater Horizon petroleum rose toward the
surface while the BTEX compounds seemed to find a depth of between about
1,100 and 1,300 meter deep and then started to move laterally as a plume.
BTEX compounds’ chemical structure, which gives them their characteristic
properties. They all have one benzene ring (six carbons in a hexagon, with three
double bonds). That made them more likely to dissolve in water than straight-
chained hydrocarbons. In oil spills at the sea surface, BTEXs can quickly
evaporate into the air. But released deep down and far from the atmosphere,
BTEXs have time to dissolve into the ocean water before having a chance to
evaporate. The compounds, which are known to be toxic to living things, were not
degraded by bacteria but rather remained in the deep. That raises new questions
about the potential for harmful ecological impacts from the spill. (WHOI, 2011).
In addition to the questions about harmful ecological effects, some have
speculated that these plumes may have had a blunting impact on the gulf stream.
If that were true, northern latitude locations such as London could be subject to
climate change acceleration if the strength of the Gulf Stream deteriorates. If that
has any impact upon the Jet Stream, still further unwinding environmental
consequences begin to unfold.
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These conceptual ideas are fascinating to consider, but the hard science is simply
not available in a larger sense. Strength and direction changes of the Gulf Stream,
however, can be documented by consulting Gulf Stream comparisons at the NOAA
National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center. Recent concerns project a
changing Gulf Stream may be contributing to a warming of intermediate depth
ocean temperatures which are destabilizing 2.5 gigatonnes of methane hydrate,
which if felt to be a fraction of the methane hydrates destabilizing globally.
(Phrampus, 2012)
COP18 – DOHA UN Report on Permafrost Thawing
As global leaders descended on Doha for the COP18 meetings, the United Nations
Climate Programme announced new findings relative to permafrost thawing and
the need to review the ramifications of CO2 and methane release as a result of
widespread observed permafrost melting. In addition to an understanding of what
impacts permafrost thawing will have on infrastructure in the Arctic, there is also a
concern that the rates of GHG release as a result of permafrost thawing could
cause global CO2 agreements to be understated by considerable amounts,
perhaps as much as 40% understated (UN, 2012).
There are different ways to monitor permafrost status, with two networks
providing most of the terrestrial data. The Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP)
network examines permafrost temperatures in 860 boreholes while the
Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) measures the thickness of the active
layers of permafrost at 260 sites.
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Accordingly, when goals are negotiated, there are early signals that the
agreements sought, and argued over, may in fact be proposals that are almost
half as much as they should be. In short, the goals related to CO2 emissions are
not adjusted to account for the additional GHG’s brought on by the emissions of
additional CO2.
While the outcome of the COP18 meetings were generally thought to be
disappointing, the emergence of a new dialogue about the insufficiency of overall
targets due to the extraordinarily large underestimation of permafrost methane
release should result in a considerable expansion of baseline goals at the 2015
meeting in Copenhagen. In addition to the underestimation of GHG release due to
insufficient accounting for methane (CO4) release due to terrestrial permafrost
instability. The evidence of climate change driven large storm events continues to
grow and solidify across both the scientific community and the insurance industry
and the mainstream public. As this grows, GHG emission targets and negotiating
positions will need to be well thought out long before the international community
assembles in Copenhagen for the next round of talks. It may be that subsea
methane release may also have atmospheric consequences in addition to the
obvious impact of oceanic acidification and these matters might find their way into
the Copenhagen discussions.
Permafrost Positive Feedback Loop
The GHG’s that are emitted as a result of melting permafrost feed into a positive
feedback look. As more permafrost melts, greater amounts of GHG’s are released
which in turn, continue to amplify the effect through the Permafrost Positive
39
Feedback Loop (PPFL). This is one component of a larger Planetary Scale Positive
Feedback Loop (PSPFL).
While the rate and amount of GHG’s released from melting permafrost are difficult
to predict due the infancy of this data observation and the longitudinal time
frames required to understand, with any great degrees of certainty, the precise
and growth rate of the issue. Estimates show an increase of GHG release due to
PSPFL release combined with anthropogenic forcing could drive CO2 ppm to
extraordinarily high levels within, geologically speaking, a very short window of
time. The consequences for climate cannot be known, but the changes already
being seen and felt certainly seem to be suggestive this matter is worth some of
our finest scientific minds.
When the estimated GHG release is considerably larger than anticipated, this
compounds policy issues through the realization that these emissions were not
calculated into Kyoto targets. Again, the Doha COP18 meetings have not taken
these quantities into policy considerations as targets either. Emerging science is a
cause for the significant realignment of the urgency of the overall issue. If
anything, there is substantial cause to give the scientific community and global
policy forums a new source of GHG’s to consider when establishing targets.
Of note, the TSP and CALM network observations are showing that permafrost
temperatures have risen over the past few decades and indicate a massive
thawing of permafrost may already be underway. Intrinsic knowledge and
observations by indigenous people confirm this finding and undersea estimates of
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methane hydrate release are all entering into the equations of overall GHG
emissions.
Planetary Scale Positive Feedback Loop
Larger open sea areas erode more land, reduces ice surface increases heat,
emission of methane and carbon dioxide creates more greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere, the planet reacts with carbon sinks, this creates more acidification of
oceans, and the entire cycle feeds on itself in a planetary scale positive feedback
loop.
The combination of these things and other things, probably some still unknown,
will continue to create what we call an amplification process; this will be
particularly noted in the higher latitudes, and in particular, the Arctic. All of these
things create scientific challenges and point towards a real need for political
acceptance of the science and the beginning of a serious effort to begin concrete
plans for adaptation to the coming acceleration of global climate changes.
These changes, quite naturally, will present in Canada where it is assumed they
will take the form of wetter Spring and Summer months, increased high
temperature events plus more and more dramatic storm events. Winter months
could be warmer initially, and depending on conveyer changes and La Niña and El
Niño weather patterns, it could become colder; there is some debate about overall
snowfall.
A shifting of the ocean conveyer system is thought to have ramifications that
could change prevailing winds and currents, possibly shifting the northern
41
latitudes into a significant cooling period with large scale storm events gaining
momentum to compressed Rossby wave forms in the jet stream.
PART II ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE
Rate of Change in the Arctic
Climate change in the Arctic happens faster than anywhere on the planet, a
scientific fact that finds little dispute from any group. For many years, it has been
described as the canary in the coal mine (Michaels, 2004).
As circumpolar leaders and experts met at the Arctic Imperative Summit, the
recession of Arctic ice, a.k.a. the ice melt, had exceeded 2007 levels (NSIDC,
2012).
Figure 8 - 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
Source : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
While the Arctic shows evidence of global climate change at a faster rate than
other areas, it also presents a very attractive subject for research and study.
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There is room to expand the interdisciplinary aspect of the many scientific fields
studying climate change impacts in the high Arctic, but this is offset by the
difficulty and expense of reaching Arctic areas for the purpose of conducting
scientific research (Hinzmon, 2005). Further visualizations of the Arctic Sea Ice
minimum provide insight into the extent of the sea ice loss in the Arctic which
creates a large dark area to absorb more solar radiation, and of course, provides a
growing area of single year ice that has greater propensity to melt faster.
Figure 9 - Polar Visualization of Sea Ice Minimum 2012
Source : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
The challenges are real, the Arctic is changing quickly, and projections of
increased economic activity in the Circumpolar World seem inevitable.
Recognition of the consequences of accelerating climate change for Arctic
43
environments will aid the voices advocating for more research funding on the part
of the entire Circumpolar World and beyond.
Swedish researchers note a generalized loss of cold winters and cool summers
while noting more extreme precipitation events. Their understanding of the rate
of climate change has led them to focus on adaptation strategy.
Like many entities, the circumpolar governments and regional stakeholders are
turning more and more energy to the adaptation process (Callaghan, et al., 2010).
In the eyes of all the circumpolar nations, the debate as to if the climate is
changing is long gone. The conversation is now about how best to adapt since
their part of the planet will be impacted fastest.
Reduction of Arctic Ice
The reduction of Arctic Ice creates a variety of issues and opportunities. The issue
from the standpoint of ice melting is that polar ice reflects light (and heat). As the
ice melts, the dark water surface absorbs more heat, this creates faster
temperature rise which, in turn, causes the ice melt to occur at a faster rate. This
kind of feedback system, or PFL, is one of many components that impact global
climate change.
In addition, water on top of the ice pack also creates more rapid heat absorption
because it creates a dark area on the ice surface that absorbs more heat. While
melting Arctic ice does not cause sea levels to rise, much like a melting ice cube in
a glass of water does not cause the level of liquid in the glass to rise; it does
create warmer temperatures which cause other circumpolar ice to melt. As large
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amounts of land based ice melt, like the Greenland Ice Shelf, that does introduce
more water into the ocean, which does raise sea levels.
As Arctic ice minimums continue to advance, creating more dark water, the
ramifications impact not only the acceleration of temperature change, but it also
creates young ice areas which require less energy to melt during subsequent
melting cycles. The National Snow and Ice Data Center tracks daily changes in the
Arctic ice cover. The Arctic ice recedes yearly through melting during the warm
months, typically stopping its recession around the end of September when it
becomes cold enough for the ice coverage to begin extending again. In 2012, the
Arctic ice minimum was found to be at the lowest levels since this data has been
tracked by satellite (NSIDC, 2012).
The Greenland Ice Sheet
The Greenland Ice Sheet is a massive land based ice deposit. This vast area of ice
is starting to undergo rapid melting cycles. While this has been noted by
scientists for many years, the rapid acceleration of Greenland’s ice combined with
additional complicating factors, are only recently emerging as an environmental
issue that is starting to command global interest.
Unusual weather patterns noted in 2012 include the U.S. drought, and a sudden
widespread surface melt event impacting the Greenland Ice Sheet. This set of
circumstances, known as a heat dome, occurs when the jet stream patterns keep
cooler air to the north which, in turn, allows warmer air from the Gulf stream to
rise up to Greenland. The phenomena, in July of 2012, caused a rapid spread of
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surface melt in Greenland, extending the area from about 40% of Greenland’s
surface to nearly complete coverage over the course of just four days.
Typically, the maximum surface melt area in Greenland during the hottest point of
the summer is around 50%. The scope of these phenomena are certainly
attention getting, but there is also evidence this may be part of a cyclical event.
While there is not enough evidence to suggest this predicts an impending
catastrophic ice loss and resultant accelerated rates of sea level rise, it certainly
warrants further investigation and attention.
If instability and accelerating melting takes place on the Greenland Ice Sheet and
the Antarctic, the level of sea rise could be far faster than was originally thought.
It seems like scientists continue to be surprised each year as the rate of change
exceeds the predictive components of their models.
If there is a tipping point and the largest of the land based glaciers melt into the
ocean, we would have sea levels that are several meters higher than they are
now. Under the most prepared scenario, it is hard to imagine to what extent such
an impact would damage global trading patterns.
Imagery of Greenland
Satellite Data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite
taken between 2002 and 2008, demonstrate that Greenland has been losing
approximately 195 cubic kilometers of ice per year. A large section of the
Peterman glacier, some 130 square kilometers, broke off due to the high
temperatures, but since this section was already floating on the ocean, it will not
46
contribute to rising sea levels. That said, as similar weather patterns repeat in
conjunction with rising average air temperatures, the rate of melt on land is likely
to grow. In 2012, the cumulative melt days exceeded 120 days in low elevation
areas and melt extent was greater than 100 days in far north areas. This has not
occurred previously in the last century and ice core samples show it has only
happened a few times over the last millennia.
Figure 10 - Greenland Ice Melt Cumulative Days 2012
Source: http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2013/02/greenland-melting-2012-in-review/
47
Ice melt rate is also affected by other factors, including airborne particulates
raining out over the ice sheet causing dark spots. Images of these dark spots
evoke an interest in knowing if, from a hydrological perspective, they are isolated
from glacial sub surface water. The dark holes appear to be bore holes. These
holes initially absorb solar energy at a higher rate causing an increase in the rate
of melt in these dark holes.
Figure 11 - Cryoconites (Black Holes) in ice
Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/PaintedGlaciers/page3.php
As the holes get deeper, the rate of deepening begins to rescind as the exposure
angle to the sun decreases, and at some point the rate of melt equalizes with
surrounding ice. As these holes create a matrix of higher melt points, they
become increasingly subject to interrelationships with under surface fissures and
fractures of the major ice sheets.
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To the extent these many drain into large ice sheet fractures and lubricate the
glacier contact points with land, the rate of progression of land based ice and land
contact points tends to create an opportunity for ice to shift and move, probably a
lot sooner than it otherwise would have.
Particulates that absorb heat like black carbon, vanillic acid, and sulphur that fall
on the Greenland Ice Shelf create the aforementioned dark areas creating bore
holes. These particulate driven bore holes are called cryoconite holes. Cyroconite
holes have been widely reported by glaciologists, especially those who study the
Greenland Ice Shelf. It is thought, based on the chemical composition of the soot,
that much of it comes from coal burning plants in Asia; this is based on
assumptions of wind conditions and observable fallout patterns.
49
Figure 12 - Ice Melt on Greenland Ice Shelf
Source: http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2008/greenland_speedup.html
Rivers of water are also noted with massive drop offs into large crevasse
structures. It’s the combination of rising surface temperatures and particulate
fallout from high emission industrial output that creates what appears to be an
accelerated migration of surface water to the ice bedrock interface (Zwally, et al.,
2002).
It may also be presumed these holes contribute integrity challenges to the ice
sheet, probably creating larger areas that break off as the ice sheet approaches
the ocean. Other chemical compositions suggest some of the soot is due to
massive forest fires in other parts of the globe, another by-product of climate
change as large forested areas undergo significant drought during the summer
months, hence creating ideal conditions for large forest fires.
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Ice core samples reveal coal soot particulate content in the Arctic can be
correlated to the maximum effect of the industrialization of the period from 1906
to 1910 (McConnell, 2007) and note thermal temperature rises eight times larger
than the pre-industrialization age. Much of the soot examined from ice core
samples on the Greenland Ice Sheet during that time frame is thought to have
derived from the United States and Canada.
Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits and Methane
Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits of methane and carboniferous
materials on Arctic coastal areas also represent a considerable store of materials
that have potential to release GHG emissions that will continue to accelerate the
rate of climate change. The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) covers
approximately 7,000 kilometers with significant outcroppings of complex ancient
ice deposits rich in carboniferous materials in addition to substantial quantities of
shallow subsea permafrost. This exists throughout the entire Arctic region, but the
ESAS is by far the most proliferous area.
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Figure 13 - Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf
Source: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov
As climate change creates larger open water areas in the Arctic for longer periods
of time, erosion of these shelves increase the release of these carboniferous
materials into the ocean. Microbial consumption of these materials produces
carbon dioxide and methane. The release of carbon dioxide and methane vent to
the atmosphere. Massive deposits of methane hydrates are also known to exist in
the form of methane hydrates are trapped in a frozen state beneath the Arctic
tundra.
Coastal erosion due to increased tidal activity combined with warming will bring
these coastline and sea based deposits to the mix. Since methane has
approximately 20-23 times greater impact on warming, meaning it traps much
more heat, the ramifications of large scale emissions of methane into the
atmosphere further exacerbate the PFL effect. Because methane dissipates
relatively quickly, the overall impact of methane release may not have enormous
impact on overall global average temperatures (Kvenvolden, 1988) in and of itself,
52
taken together with other components in a PSPFT, the impact could be magnified
significantly.
If technology existed to easily capture methane from the Arctic tundra, the sheer
quantity of deposits might help to accelerate the economic viability of methane
production. Because it is a very efficient fuel, there is little doubt that an
economic model to capture methane would be of serious interest to various
stakeholders in the Arctic, especially those who would be in a position to benefit
from profitable resource development.
Capturing the methane before it escapes into the atmosphere would prevent a
GHG some 20+ times more potent than CO2 from contributing its effects to
climate change. But the numerous challenges of getting to the resource and then
fielding the technology to capture it present challenges that may render this
option uneconomic.
PART III –WILDLIFE
Changing Patterns
Intuit knowledge of Arctic wildlife supports the health and wellbeing of their
various communities. Indigenous settlement of the Arctic is considerable, with
over four million people living in the Arctic. Of the four million, about ten percent,
or around four hundred thousand are indigenous. Yet their presence in the Arctic
has been established for thousands of years.
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Indigenous knowledge of the wildlife patterns often extends across centuries. This
longitudinal knowledge creates a unique understanding of how patterns establish,
change, and then re-establish in the Arctic. While the indigenous peoples are
worried that increased development of the Arctic will bring many influences that
will place pressure on wildlife and ultimately result in changed patterns, one of the
chief concerns of the indigenous people is that the cycle of patterns may not be
repeated. It’s difficult to predict what the wildlife will do and if the patterns that
have been established and re-established over the centuries will be re-established
going forward.
Seals and Walrus
Seal is one of the most important sources of Arctic diets. Not only are seals
plentiful, their skin provides excellent clothing and their meat is considered to be
far more than just a staple of the local diet, it is considered to have medicinal
qualities.
One of the facts we know about ringed seals is that they rarely come on land.
They need ice to survive and as the ice breakup comes earlier, the young ringed
seals become separated from their parents at an earlier age. In addition to this
vulnerability, the seals will need to migrate to where the ice is. This may have
negative repercussions for subsistence hunters.
If the ringed seals are reduced in numbers, there will likely be a cascading effect
on the entire food chain of the Arctic, especially on Polar Bears as seal is a
mainstay of their diet. It is likely the ringed seals will continue a migration
towards the pole as summer ice extent shrinks. If there is no ice in the Arctic
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during a portion of the year, the ringed seals will either adapt by hauling
themselves out of the water or they could experience great difficulty.
Whales
When Intuit narwhal hunts that once provided 50 narwhal bring the community
only 3 narwhal, everybody takes notice. Intuit and Dene people have noted an
increase in the variability and unpredictability of seasonal climate patterns. In
addition to unpredictable behaviour patterns, the health of wildlife is a large
concern for the Intuit just as are the smaller harvests of narwhal.
Narwhal are particularly sensitive to climate change because their migratory
patterns revolve around ice flow patterns. As the ice breaks up earlier, their
patterns also change. This combined with the increasing numbers of killer whales,
which prey on narwhales, is putting pressure on narwhale populations.
Inuit also believe narwhales are very sensitive to manmade noise, causing them to
seek shallow water and remain immobile. This also makes them easier prey for
killer whales. The combination of increased predation and the probability of
increased manmade vessel traffic in the Arctic are likely to create increasing
pressure on narwhale populations.
Accelerated climate change is critical to the Intuit ability to undertake subsistence
hunting and fishing, a way of life that has sustained their people for thousands of
years (Krupnik & Jolly, 2002). In addition to the unusual migration patterns
exhibited by wildlife, the Intuit themselves are finding it harder to use
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environmental indicators known for generations to predict weather and assist in
hunting and travel over sea ice.
These techniques are no longer working. Depending on circumstances, sometimes
the ice is not thick enough to stand safely upon. As these and other factors sustain
increased variability, Intuit prosperity through subsistence hunting has been
diminished.
Some aspects of life in the Arctic have started to change. For instance, the
bowhead whales have been off limits for many decades because they were hunted
nearly to the brink of extinction. Historically, the bowhead whales have provided
much needed utilities for subsistence hunters including the best quality of oil for
heat and light, the rib and jaw bones were traditionally used for roof supports,
vertebrae for tools, and baleen could be used to lash together sleds.
While it has been many decades since the Bowhead was hunted, there have been
some controlled hunts in recent years. In the past, one bowhead might have
provided enough for a small Intuit community to survive for an entire year.
Beluga whales are also an important part of the Inuit culture and provide protein,
iron, and omega 3 fatty acids. Beluga is an important source of food for the Inuit
and can be found in greatest numbers in the high arctic and western arctic. While
the numbers of Beluga are still strong and their vulnerability to climate change is
not yet known, the one thing we do know is that they are susceptible to
contaminants and pollution, and the meat of the beluga reveals growing levels of
contamination.
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Caribou and Muskox
Caribou have been an important part of the indigenous diet for millennia. The
large herds have provided indigenous people with important sources of food and
skins for clothing. "We don't know if the caribou are going to keep behaving the
way they always did in the past. There is a lot of development that is going to
happen on the land with mines and tourists coming to the new park [Auluetok
National Park]. This will affect all of the caribou and mainly the females ready to
calve. It could change the places they use during the year creating different
patterns that will be hard for indigenous hunters to predict.
The same thing will happen with the seals and whales or walrus because of the
ships that will be coming to the north. Even Inuit will cause problems if our
communities get too big and we make more noise or garbage and smells than
before." (Grace M. Egeland, 2012)
During an interview about climate change impact, a northern resident, Mr. Charlie
Snowshoe, pointed out that recently, the Caribou had moved south towards their
traditional calving grounds, but when the weather changed dramatically, warming
the area, they began to return to more northern locations. The weather essentially
impacted their sense of where they needed to be. This, in turn, created difficulties
for the herd as the weather again changed and they were no longer in the right
area for their calving season and they did not go back there. It was estimated this
had a hugely negative impact on the caribou birth rate in the area that caused a
significant decrease in herd population.
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Muskox live in certain portions of the Arctic and hunting them is limited. Although
Muskox is an excellent source of food, the impact of climate change for Muskox
could well be positive if predators are not increased in numbers. It is thought that
increasingly warmer temperatures will provide Muskox with longer and greater
access to their food sources, which could assist in their population growth.
Salmon and Char
Arctic char is generally considered a freshwater fish, although there are some that
are seaborne and some that are landlocked freshwater char. They are a member
of the salmon family and have been a staple of the Intuit for centuries. Char can
be frozen, dried, smoked, aged, or cooked fresh. The versatility of Arctic char has
made it an important part Arctic survival.
How char will respond to climate change, however, is still largely unknown.
Perhaps there will be unexpected challenges from migrating species. For example,
in the waters near Pond Inlet some Pacific salmon have been harvested in nets
along with char. Pacific salmon are rarely encountered east of Alaska in the Arctic,
so landing them in Pond Inlet is an example of the migratory patterns and range
changes that may have implications for local wildlife.
Polar Bears
Scientists undertaking regionalized studies in the Southern Beaufort area have
examined to correlation between sea ice minimums and ice free periods have a
correlative pattern that demonstrates survival and breeding probabilities decline
with extended ice free periods (Regehr EV, 2010).
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Hunters in the area have extensive intrinsic knowledge of this. In collaboration
with scientists, the local hunters contribute their own knowledge and as part of the
indigenous stewardship, female polar bears with cubs are not taken during
hunting.
One question of interest relates to permanent emigration of Polar Bears, but radio
telemetry studies show a high degree of fidelity to a specific territory. While
extensive emigration has not been noted, there have been instances of bi-
directional emigration of species. Indigenous people now believe there has been
interbreeding between Polar Bears and Grizzly Bears, calling the offspring Pizzly
Bears. There has not been enough research to determine if climate change has
driven this phenomena or not, but there is observable evidence of this taking
place.
With Polar Bears dependent on ice for hunting, the rapid melting and extended ice
free periods have been projected to assume a species extinction of Polar Bears by
the year 2100, but it seems likely the species can adapt. Perhaps if adaptation
takes place, part of that adaptation may be a result of the interbreeding between
different bear species.
Waterfowl and Birds
Intuit hunters have long history of knowing when and where geese will return to
their summer grounds. But in the last few years they have been reporting the
seasons have changed. They once knew exactly what days they needed to arrive
at a particular site to hunt. Now the geese are returning earlier and it is no longer
easy for the hunters to know exactly when to go. This creates difficulties for the
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indigenous hunter along with nesting changes. Eggs from waterfowl and other
birds are part of the Inuit diet.
As Inuit hunters find the migratory patterns and ranges of various species of
waterfowl and birds are changing, they will need to adapt to the changing patterns
of migration. If the ranges change significantly, this will have very different
consequences as part of the indigenous diet may be excluded because it may
become too far for the Intuit to travel in order to secure it.
Commercial Fishing
As the ice free zone in the Arctic extends, there is an increasing availability to
international zones, those areas outside of exclusive economic zones (EEZ). There
is a very large area in the Arctic that falls outside the EEZ’s of the various Arctic
nations. The area that falls outside of Arctic EEZ’s is commonly referred to as the
Arctic doughnut hole. The Arctic doughnut hole is a vast area where international
fishing may take place without having to be in compliance with any national laws,
but rather, governed by international agreements.
Unilateral actions may be taken by nations concerned about commercial
overfishing in the Arctic by closing down their own territorial waters to commercial
fishing. In 2009, the United States closed nearly all of the U.S. Arctic Ocean to
commercial fishing with the support of Alaskan Native leaders, scientists, and the
commercial fishing industry citing a need to gather sufficient information to
understand the impacts of commercial fishing in the Arctic which is widely thought
to be quite sensitive due to the relatively short food chain in comparison to
tropical waters (Pew, 2013).
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PART IV ARCTIC POLITICAL ECONOMY
Arctic Political Economy – North America
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is very important
for the circumpolar nations and the relevance goes well beyond shipping just as it
applies to more than just circumpolar nations. The prospect of an ice free Arctic is
very attractive for organizations that ship goods. It’s also important to
organizations that are engaged in resource acquisition and exploitation in the
circumpolar north.
As nations move to stake their claim in the Arctic, international recognition of
territory is undergoing considerable debate, these issues are based on extensions
of continental shelves and upon exclusive economic zones (EEZ). Beneficiaries to
the political processes will receive substantial economic opportunities, economic
growth, and resource expansion. The intertwined fabric of politics and economics
is, perhaps, as clear in the Arctic as any place on Earth, and in few locations in
recent history, has more been at stake.
The circumpolar nations recognize UNCLOS and although the United States has
not ratified it, the United States does recognize it as a codification of customary
international law. In other words, the United States follows the provisions of
UNCLOS with certain noted exceptions. As demand for Arctic resources increases,
the need for corporate interests to have clarity of ownership in the areas beyond
current EEZ’s are increasingly important.
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When examining cultural relationships, the government remains cognizant of key
economic drivers, sifting through the countless economic drivers to arrive at the
ones which offer the greatest strategic advantages, typically focusing on the ones
that offer energy security and profound economic advantages. This process
speaks to the main energy industrial complex of the region.
The upstream energy industry complex is located, to some extent, in relative
proximity to the circumpolar region. The ability to marshal supplemental energy
infrastructure depends largely on geography. The more remote a site, the more
difficult to get equipment, human resources, and various support materials to it.
This can, however, be brought online with accessible transportation routes and
Alaska is a great example with upstream capacity located in Anchorage and
supported by infrastructure capacity in the continental United States, much of it in
Texas.
Canada, as a major player in the Arctic, has limited upstream infrastructure in the
high Arctic and relies on Edmonton and Nisku as a gateway area for overland and
airborne equipment and infrastructure capacity. Because of rail connections to
the major port of Prince Rupert, the same area that Canada enjoys as an Asia
Pacific Gateway can also be used as an Arctic Gateway for barge shipments.
The economics of having upstream capacity fairly close (relatively speaking) to
Arctic operations creates a significant advantage for various areas in Canada. For
the high arctic regions of eastern Nunavut, Ontario and Quebec offer proximity.
For the western arctic, Alberta's Capital Region, particularly Nisku and the
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Edmonton area have tremendous access to industrial scale operations, energy
industry expertise, equipment manufacturing, plus large scale fabrication facilities.
The Government of Canada recognizes the importance of the political economy of
the Arctic and continues to invest in Arctic infrastructure while working in
collaboration with the U.S. to map undersea extensions of the Canadian
continental shelf. Once the extension claims are settled, the prospect of an ice
free Arctic will bring along with it the propensity of business activities that had
previously stayed away.
Shipping is one of the more obvious components of an expanding Arctic Political
Economy. Savings of time, fuel, and financial resources will help clarify the
economic model of the Arctic as the distances between the Asian and European
markets shrink dramatically due to an ice free Arctic.
Quite naturally, climate change impacts are central to the discussion of economic
opportunity. In Alaska, two items exist that are of paramount importance to the
state. Alaska has a well invested permanent fund at 48 billion dollars, most of it a
result of North Slope oil that filled the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). TAPS
is currently operating at about 1/3 capacity; currently slightly over 600,000 barrels
a day with TAPS finite capacity of 2.136 million barrels per day (USEIA, 2008). The
appetite for new exploration and additional revenues grows as TAPS throughput
diminishes, thereby compressing the economic prosperity of the State of Alaska.
The overarching interest in Alaska now appears to be centered on expanding
North Slope in addition to moving further offshore to gather hydrocarbon
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resources from the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. In addition to this tactic, Alaskans
have been reaching out to Albertans to have a dialogue about building a pipeline
to move Alberta synthetic crude via a pipeline that would run West from Alberta
and work its way to join up with TAPS, which would fill the pipeline and
reinvigorate the port activity at the port of Valdez.
Given resistance to pipelines with the Government of British Columbia and
numerous first nations on the proposed routes, it might be possible to shift the
conversation further north into different political environments where the thought
of pipeline construction may be far more readily accomplished. Naturally,
pipelines are quite expensive and the less distance they must cover, the more
cost effective it is for the developer and operator of the pipeline. But in thinking
about a future further down the road, some argue that using a combination of a
western pipeline, a U.S. pipeline, and an eastern pipeline would be sufficient to
accommodate large scale operations to export synthetic crude oil. The western
pipeline being one of the more challenging routes to secure, thinking outside the
box and approaching pipeline infrastructure in a different manner might offer
corporations a new way to move synthetic oil to thirsty Asian markets.
Federal constraints in Alaska
Federal Limitations on Alaska constrict the State of Alaska’s ability to explore due
to environmental requirements complicated by federal environmental regulations.
A stiff federal regulatory environment contrasts with a strong local appetite to
open areas of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).
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While these regulations create some amount of palpable discord between energy
exploration companies, other energy companies are starting to prepare a
presence in Alaska in anticipation of improved economic and regulatory conditions
relative to the exploration for Arctic oil. ExxonMobil has established a government
and public relations presence and is closely monitoring the conditions that exist in
the region.
There is a ubiquitous sense of economic optimism that permeates the State of
Alaska and especially the indigenous owned corporations that have considerable
land holdings. Their ability to derive substantial economic benefit is weighed with
their interests in preserving their traditional subsistence lifestyle and their
traditions. The Arctic Imperative Summit is a unique forum where the indigenous
people of Alaska have full participation and an equal voice, this development is
supported by the President of Iceland as a new political/diplomatic framework that
could be beneficial for all stakeholders. It is also seen as a viable and critical
component of future developments in the eyes of the Government of Alaska as
they have welcomed this collaborative model.
Economic Opportunity
Because Arctic sea ice minimums are likely to continue to retract, two specific
conditions will present. First, the North Arctic route will become more navigable to
large cargo vessels. Second, the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route
will become more navigable to ocean going vessels. Russian President Vladimir
Putin has made strong commitments to further develop Russia’s Arctic naval
capacity (Nilsen, 2012).
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Figure 14 - Vladimir Putin
Source: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/4779
Commercially, the prospect of shipping through the Arctic presents considerable
economic advantages to shipping companies. In addition to commercial shipping,
it is expected that Arctic tourism will continue to grow along with private
navigation of these waters.
Canada and Russia have the largest extent of Arctic coastal waters and possess
considerable Arctic capabilities in oceanic and terrestrial based resources that
include oil spill response (OSR) and search and rescue (SAR) assets. Substantial
economic development is likely to move forward only with larger capital projects
in order to have sufficient payouts. Due to tremendous expenses associated with
Arctic development, the larger scales are required to properly incentivize capital
investment.
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It’s widely thought larger shipping vessels would move through the Northern Sea
Route.
Figure 15 - Northern Route and Northwest Passage
Source: http://www.unep.org/yearbook/2003/053.htm
As these two options become increasingly viable due to minimum sea ice ranges,
the effects of climate change will, as the sea ice minimum recedes, leave younger
ice (less thick) and the process of ice recession will accelerate. As shipping routes
become more viable, the net economic savings to shipping companies moving
goods from the Asian markets and US markets to European markets will become
attractive due to the reduced distances and reduction in transit fees through
either the Suez Canal or Panama Canal depending on source of emanation.
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It is important to note, however, that a transitional period will determine
commercial insurance costs. The ability of commercial shipping to attain
insurance for Trans-Arctic transportation will play a key role in traffic counts.
Figure 16 – Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage
Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Asia Pacific / North America / Europe
Governments have numerous priorities, included amongst those priorities is a
responsibility to engage in the development of economic relationships that
strengthen the ability of the various stakeholders to prosper. Certain countries
have found enormous benefit of global access to markets. Exports from the Asian
and Pacific Rim countries have grown at an accelerated rate in the last few
decades of the twentieth century and continue strong growth patterns through the
first dozen years of the twenty first century.
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In Alberta alone, the export market has risen 95% between 2002 and 2012 to 95.5
billion. The rest of Canada rose 5% over the same period. (Alberta, 2012). In
2012, approximately 70% of Alberta's exports came from the energy sector. The
Asia Pacific region, including countries like China, India, Japan, and Korea, are
becoming a leading source of foreign direct investment in Alberta. This trend is
also pronounced in other areas of Canada, with a strong emphasis on growth in
British Columbia.
This is a regionalized viewpoint, stretching it further outward and both Canada and
the United States stand to gain a great deal of energy resource and mineral
wealth from Arctic development. Both countries stand to expand their EEZ’s and
move further out into the Arctic. As these two nations continue to work with each
other and collaborate with each other, their interests in the Arctic will have gain
alignment through logical economies of scale and geographical advantages for
collaborative partnerships.
But there will be enormous engagement throughout the entire circumpolar world
that will draw in more than just circumpolar nations. One of the key drivers will be
an ice free Arctic which could dramatically grow the shipping through the Arctic in
order to reduce shipping mileage from Asia to Europe.
For Asia Pacific markets exporting to European markets, the opening of shipping
routes through the Arctic benefits the Pan Asian and European regions due to their
distances from each other’s market. The E.U. maintains a strong interest in Arctic
policy and would benefit quite directly from the ability to export across the Arctic
directly to Pan Asian markets.
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UNCLOS – USN & USCG Perspective
The Navy and the Coast Guard support UNCLOS because it provides numerous
benefits that enshrine, for example, the ability of the submarines to navigate
international straights while submerged without having to obtain permission from
other nations who may control that particular EEZ. This, in essence, creates an
internationally enforceable access right that provides guarantees of the U.S.
Navy’s ability to enjoy maximum navigational rights and freedoms in other
national EEZ’s and on the high seas (U.S. Navy, n.d.).
In addition, it enshrines the ability of the U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Navy to board
stateless vessels on the high seas; obviously necessary to protect national
security and insure non-proliferation of controlled substances or weapons.
In a speech by James A. Baker III at the Arctic Imperative Summit 2012, he
recalled that the administration of U.S. President George H.W. Bush (a.k.a. 41),
was able to negotiate changes to provisions in UNCLOS that previous U.S.
President Ronald Reagan had strongly objected to. UNCLOS was passed by the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the treaty was sent to the Senate, but it
was not ultimately ratified.
To this day, the U.S. Navy and U.S. Coast Guard have a strong sense of support for
UNCLOS, but as of the writing of this book, UNCLOS had not yet been ratified
although the U.S. Secretary of State has testified positively for UNCLOS and so
have previous Secretaries of State.
One of the reasons for supporting UNCLOS ratification is that it would probably
expand U.S. EEZ's through continental extensions that are massive and could 70
possibly extend the EEZ in Alaska to over 600 miles in the Arctic alone. Another
reason is to capture a U.S. seat at the table in the South China Sea (Bower &
Poling, 2012) where the rising power continues to flex their muscles as they start
to grow from a green water navy to a blue water navy.
There are other strategic reasons for the U.S. government to prefer a ratification
of UNCLOS, not the least of which is strategic positioning that would allow the
United States to maintain submarine egress routes versus having no access at all.
At some point, the national security issues will escalate the matter, along with the
potential economic gains, to the forefront of the U.S. Senate where, in spite of
some political ill will between parties, it may possibly make it through the Senate.
Once UNCLOS has cleared the U.S. Senate by a 2/3 majority vote, it may then be
sent to the President for signature and enactment. According to the known
comments, it would be the intention of President Obama to sign and ratify the
UNCLOS if it were given to him for signature.
U.S. UNCLOS Issues - Undersea Mining and the International
Seabed Authority
In the United States, there are numerous arguments for and against the
ratification of UNCLOS. James Baker III, former Chief of Staff to President Ronald
Regan, at the Arctic Imperative Summit II, said that “Reagan refused to sign
UNCLOS primarily because of the seabed mining provisions, and it also required
the United States to be subject to International Seabed Authority (ISA) rulings”. It
was felt the issues could result in a vast redistribution of wealth to the detriment
of the United States. The former Chief of Staff and Secretary of State appreciated
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the President’s opinion and the U.S. Government felt that ISA rulings would not be
very unfavourable to the United States, as such, they were not prepared to be
subject to the authority of the ISA.
At the time, it was also felt that if the United States were to ratify UNCLOS, it
would be subject to ISA dispute resolution mechanisms that would, very likely,
have been very bias against the interests of the United States. The politics of such
a situation could result in immediately negative economic impacts, but might also
harm the United States economic and technological ability to engage in deep sea
mining.
Security of tenure is required before corporations will, generally speaking, be
willing to undertake vastly expensive undersea mining and hydrocarbon
exploration in areas beyond the 200 mile EEZ. UNCLOS would provide clarity of
EEZ definition on the basis of extensions of continental shelves, and this would
create the security of tenure that corporations are looking for before they engage
in exploration activities beyond well-defined EEZ areas. With the promise of
UNCLOS providing the legal clarity for such entities, it has the allure of economic
activity and economic growth. Until legal clarity surrounding undersea mining
claims can be established, the level of uncertainty for corporate entities presents
an unacceptable risk.
Because UNCLOS recognizes extensions of continental shelves through undersea
formations, the EEZ of the United States could be extended by UNCLOS, this is
seen, especially by the State of Alaska, as a great way to extend their undersea
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mineral and hydrocarbon potential, with the promise of expanding economic
activity.
The circumpolar nations have either filed their claims for continental extensions or
they are working on those claims, this includes the United States and Canada.
Some people might ask why the United States would work on their claim to a
continental shelf extension if there was no desire to ratify UNCLOS, and that would
be a logical question. Perhaps the intention is to ratify UNCLOS on the part of the
Executive Branch, and the rest is about the timing of the submission.
The Kyoto Backdoor
It has also been noted that Part XII Article 194, 3 (a) (UN, n.d.), of UNCLOS states:
3 The measures taken pursuant to this Part shall deal with all sources of pollution
of the marine environment. These measures shall include, inter alia, those
designed to minimize to the fullest possible extent:
(a) The release of toxic, harmful or noxious substances, especially those which are
persistent, from land-based sources, from or through the atmosphere or by
dumping.
In considering several things pointed out in the climate change section,
particularly ocean acidification and the fact that the ocean is the largest carbon
sink on Earth. Because this article is very clear that persistent land based sources
that have toxic or noxious substances can clearly be applied to CO2, ratification of
UNCLOS would be, according to the acceptance of the provisions of UNCLOS, bind
the United States to CO2 targets by treaties such as Kyoto.
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While there is no language that binds signatories to UNCLOS directly to any
atmospheric gas emission targets identified by Kyoto, it’s pretty obvious that as
oceanic acidification accelerates, there will be pressure exerted to reduce the
amount of atmospheric CO2 forcing and thereby reduce pressure on the oceanic
carbon sink. Lacking specific treaties or language, it is thought the obvious path
to pursue would be accords and agreements such as those from Kyoto or Doha.
The language is also such that one can make the argument it is designed to
convey obligations to international agreements in the future.
Arctic Rare Earth Elements, Hydrocarbons, and Minerals
Arctic is a word that can be negotiated in many ways. One of my favorite
interpretations of where the word Arctic came from is from the ancient Greeks.
Their word for Arctic can be translated to “Near the Bear.” For those who grew up
during the Cold War, we might think of being “Near the Bear” as being near
Russia.
Russia, quite obviously, has long had a huge presence in the Arctic. Russia is
often represented by the image of the Bear. Accordingly, the interpretation of
“Near the Bear” somehow seems to span the centuries to appropriately land in the
current day.
When the ancient Greek's came up with the word, it seems likely that “Arktiktos”,
for them, would have most likely been a reference to either (or both) of the
constellations Ursa Major or Ursa Minor, which of course, stand for Big Bear and
Little Bear.
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With a significant percentage of the world’s remaining hydrocarbon reserves
located in the Arctic, and untold mineral wealth, the Arctic powers and those
states with territorial claims have been iterating their Arctic strategies. It is only
logical that each strategy would be done in a manner most beneficial to each
individual state, yet it is also true that they recognize their interconnectedness. In
the Arctic circumpolar region, political and economic cooperation continues to
grow and the level of inclusion of non-state players is arguably stronger than any
other location on Earth.
It’s important to have a scope of reference regarding how vast the resource
potential is. Beyond the resource wealth we cannot possibly estimate, we do have
some estimates vis-à-vis the potential size of the hydrocarbon resources in the
Arctic. A survey completed by the US Geological Survey extrapolated the possible
undiscovered conventional reserves in the Arctic to be approximately 90 billion
barrels of oil, 1,699 trillion cubic feet of gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas
liquids (Bird & Charpentier, 2008). The fuzzy estimate of total hydrocarbon
reserves in the Arctic is thought to represent, more or less, about 23-25% of the
remaining recoverable hydrocarbons on the planet.
The minerals available for development in the Arctic are well known. Rare Earth
Elements are lesser known but they are discussed. The Arctic is a land that is vast
and largely unexplored in terms of this sort of mineralogy.
There are mines for all kinds of things like diamonds, gold, and silver. Private
companies have also been undertaking rare element exploration in the Arctic.
Interesting finds include elements like lanthanum, which can be found in a vast
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myriad of products… not just the small miniaturized hand held computers and
ubiquitous smart phones.
Products such as the Toyota Prius, have a couple of kilograms of lanthanum in the
nickel-metal hydride batteries… and the “metal” in nickel-metal hydride is
lanthanum, a rare earth element (REE). Lanthanum, evidently, provides a
performance gain in the battery worthy of the REE investment. Toyota takes
lanthanum seriously and has purchased a mine because due to current
consumption rates, there is not enough supply in the global market place to
assure Toyota’s supply chain of enough lanthanum to insure they can continue to
produce the car model that accounts for almost 10% of Toyota sales.
Other REE’s, such as samarium and neodymium are used for small magnets that
provide storage for our music files so we can carry data around with us on a very
small storage drive that fits neatly in our smart phone. Nobody knows precisely
how REE development will proceed in the Arctic, but all stakeholders recognize
there is considerable potential, even if it is difficult to pinpoint the reserves and
project values.
Like REE reserves, the full extent of mineral wealth of the Arctic has not yet been
fully determined; this is especially true of Canada and Greenland. The most
proliferous production of minerals currently occurs in the Russian Federation.
Russia has been actively engaged in the development of Arctic natural resources
since A.E. Fersman discovered huge deposits of urite and apatite in the early 20th
Century. As a result, a rail line was built between Leningrad (now St. Petersburg)
and Murmansk to ship resources to the Russian interior from the Kola Peninsula.
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Today, the Kola Peninsula still produces enormous mineral wealth and enjoys the
ability to move product to the global markets by land or sea
Economics of Transarctic Shipping
Vancouver to Rotterdam: 10,262 miles via Panama Canal – 8,038 miles via
Northern Sea Route
Shanghai to Rotterdam: 12,107 miles via Suez Canal – 9,297 miles via Northern
Sea Route
Yokohama to Rotterdam: 12,894 via Suez Canal – 8,452 miles via Northern Sea
Route
The Northern Sea Route passage is used in this comparison for two reasons. First,
the Northern Sea Route is a deep draft passage capable of facilitating the largest
cargo ships in the World. The northwest passage is considerably more difficult to
navigate, it is less predictable in terms of ice flow, and its also shallower. This
creates a requirement to use smaller vessels with smaller draft requirements.
Smaller vessels reduce the economic advantage for cost per ton of cargo, creating
an offset equation versus time and distance savings.
Economic models, of course, will be impacted by the insurance industry. The
impact of insurance rates upon transarctic shipping will be one of the larger
variables in the economic matrix over which there is some degree of control. The
relative risks associated with transarctic shipping will continue to be evaluated
and re-evaluated. As the price of insurance for transarctic shipping declines, the
economic models will correspondingly improve.
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In addition, the ability to render assistance to distressed shipping through things
such as SAR/OSR requirements will need to expand in order to reduce perceived
political risk. Capacity to conduct SAR/ORS and recovery operations are also
beneficial for insurance risk evaluations. As clarity regarding continental shef
extensions improves, it is likely the nations active in the Arctic will expand their
political and economic presence. Some will supplement that with military and
civilian profile expansions in the region. All of these things will contribute to
transarctic shipping, a transportation modality that will become increasingly
attractive from an economic standpoint.
Arctic Gateways of North America
The Summit was held in Anchorage because it is a major gateway to the Arctic for
the United States; it’s also right next to Canada and Russia. Alaskans are proud of
pointing out the only reason the United States has a prominent seat at the Arctic
table is because of Alaska. Canada is there because of her vast amount land and
Arctic coastline, counting for about 25% of the polar offshore seas and over
162,000 kilometers of Arctic shoreline (Bent, 2012).
For Canada, the Western Canadian Arctic Gateway is Edmonton. It is through
Edmonton where both overland and air traffic make their last stop in a major city
before heading into the high Arctic. The equipment and manpower resources for
the energy industry of Western Canada are also located in the Edmonton area,
primarily in Nisku, which is effectively the second largest business park in the
World. These facilities enjoy rail, road, and air nodes.
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Currently, there exists an interesting nexus of influence in Canada. In Alberta’s
Capital Region, a historical relationship goes hand in hand with the history of
economic growth and technological change in the Arctic. Edmonton has long
acted as a gateway to the high Arctic. From the days of the fur traders to the
Klondike rush, millions have made their way through the Capital Region in search
of the vast wealth of the far north.
The rate of private flight seat growth to the NW Canadian Arctic has doubled in
Edmonton. They depart from the Edmonton International Airport (EIA), and more
growth continues as mining and energy exploration growth continues to shift large
amounts of economic resources to the north. Much of it will go to the
development of oilsands. A growing portion will go to the Arctic and economic
infusion potential for Canada and the Arctic Gateway will continue to grow. A
fortuitous positioning at the Arctic Gateway happily combines with a strong nexus
of access to global economies and the largest inland energy industry port in
Canada.
While the NWT and Yukon are primary players in the development of Western
Arctic resources, other provinces continue to prosper from their own positioning.
From Eastern access routes through Ontario and Quebec to the developments that
impact Manitoba near the Hudson’s Bay, there are numerous avenues for
transnational economic growth and prosperity.
Like any development of this scope, the economic impacts will be felt right across
the nation. Accordingly, development and economic growth in the Arctic are
growing in importance at all levels of government. At the federal level, the
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implications extend beyond economic growth and development and require
strategic positioning from a national security standpoint.
Canada continues to build a federal presence in the Arctic in order to maintain
control over the vast Canadian Arctic area and provide critical infrastructure
required to maintain safety and security. Military, coastal protection, security, and
emergency response resources continue to be in important part of the Canadian
strategic growth in the Arctic. These activities are supplemented with various
federal research activities in the high Arctic.
Asia Pacific Gateway
Shifting economies have shaped and defined global business patterns in North
America. Business growth in countries like China has influenced trading patterns
with pan Asian trading nations. Immigration mobility and labor force movements
from countries throughout Asia have created new immigration patterns not only in
those nations, but also within the nations they trade with.
As diversity and complexity increases, a shift towards a focused effort that
combines with a strategy to drive economic growth while elevating cultural benefit
is often touted as the road map for maximum overall benefit. This is presumed for
different levels of government within nations as much as it is presumed for the
nation states themselves.
As guidance shifts from the government shaping the manner in which
organizations view their future, further alignment with operational goals and
vested strategic direction will be accelerated by strengthening economic and
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cultural ties across the many spectrums of the economy. This, in turn, moves
greater diversity into the global labor force as knowledge workers take portable
skills throughout the region.
Throughout this period of growth, increased energy supplies have begun to
outstrip the projected stability of energy resources throughout the pan Asian
nations, creating a strategic need to acquire some form of access to long range
energy supplies not only as a matter of continued economic growth, but also as a
matter of national economic security.
As Asian economic growth has continued, so too has the ever longer reach of their
energy acquisition strategies. This will continue to be an increasingly central
tenant of the national security policies of the Asian nations. With massive trading
surpluses and ready access to substantial financing, the Asian nations have joined
with other wealthy nations to seek their growth potential by securing foreign
energy supplies. This has created increasing political debate regarding the
national interest of national policies regarding foreign direct investment. This is
particularly evident in Canada as the Chinese government seeks to increase their
ownership over oilsands and gas fields while the Canadian government must find
an acceptable mixture of economic advancement and accelerated growth with the
infusion of foreign direct investment and balance that with the need to preserve
trading and political relationships with large national interests that may have
differing political objectives.
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Failure to find the correct mix may detract foreign direct investments required to
continue the economic growth of the Canadian economy in a manner consistent
with the overall objectives and needs of the federal and provincial governments.
Like most resource rich nations, Canada relies on the expansion of the harvesting
and sale of resources in order to maintain the orderly growth in the economy.
When resource prices fall on the global market or the amount of resources
available for sale are compressed or do not grow, the impact to the national
economy is real and profound.
The importance of the Asian Gateway is clearly understood in Canada. In the
Province of Alberta, the need to secure new ways to export oil to the Asian
markets means a great deal to the Government of Alberta and, by default, the rest
of Canada as well. Currently, most of Canada’s oil is exported to the United States
at a price considerably lower than the international price for the commodity, and
the United States is growing their oil production in the Bakken play at an
astounding rate, projecting to become a net exporter of oil within a matter of a
decade, possibly less.
In addition to the vulnerability to any economic slowdowns in the United States,
which hit Canada especially hard since their vast majority of trade is with the
United States. The second vulnerability is sliding prices for the commodity that
constitutes Canada’s largest value export. Quite obviously, under any lens, it is
important for the Canadian economy to diversify in order to retain value and
create additional markets that may act as a hedge against economic slowdown in
any one country… especially the one country Canada trades the most with.
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Part of the solution is perceived to be pipeline transport of hydrocarbons from
Alberta to the Pacific coast. There are other methods that can be considered, such
as rail shipment, but the most efficient and safest method to transport is through
pipelines. This, of course, has been met with environmental concerns and requires
considerable political positioning with the governments of British Columbia and
Alberta. The Northern Gateway pipeline is slated to carry approximately 525,000
barrels of oil a day from Alberta to the Pacific coast.
If some form of pipeline or efficient transportation mechanism is not found for
Alberta’s vast oil resources, the conventional thinking is that the remaining option
is to move the hydrocarbons north through the Mackenzie Valley to the Arctic.
Facing numerous challenges, shipping over a half a million barrels of oil a day
through the Arctic would present not only extremely complex engineering tasks,
but it would also represent a considerable risk to a very sensitive marine
environment. This argument, however, is equally marshaled by those who
steward the Pacific coast. This is a dilemma that has implications for the global
economy and environmentally sensitive areas.
Arctic Gateway
The Arctic Gateway represents a new strategic direction for the “Southerners”,
meaning the people of the Arctic nations who live well below the Arctic Circle. In
Canada, that is a huge population that comprises more than 90% of the entire
country.
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There are many cultural connections that already exist between the people of the
Arctic and Southerners. There are initiatives throughout the Southern regions to
obtain a certain level of cultural expertise to draw upon relative to the Arctic; this
has been undertaken in anticipation of a large economic expansion. It also
functions as a unique base that may be drawn upon as Arctic development moves
forward.
Continued collaboration between different levels of government in conjunction
with the Arctic governments shall continue to play a role in critical Arctic Affairs.
The combination of government alignment and stakeholder alignment amplifies
the drive to develop the economic resources of the Arctic. This kind of
collaboration creates a very potent dynamic. As these collaborations continue,
there will come a point when the critical momentum of Arctic development shall
begin to feed on itself.
Regional corporations such as Inuvaliuit, Olgoonik, Ukpeagvik, Arctic Slope, and
Nana corporations have long established relationships and contacts that extend
from Greenland to Nunavut and from Alaska to Russia. It’s is a rare opportunity
for such a proliferation of cultural and corporate relationships to exist, yet the
relationships exist and continue to flourish.
Indigenous knowledge is a precious commodity. It is the strong base of people
within the region who have extensive knowledge of the Arctic along with policy
drivers that seek alignment. Intersections between Indigenous knowledge are a
precious commodity. It is the strong base of people within the region who have
extensive knowledge of the Arctic along with policy drivers that seek alignment
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and intersections between indigenous knowledge, public policy, and government
strategy that creates benefits within the Arctic Gateway and beyond.
Economic growth will continue to further amplify the synergistic nexus of Arctic
influence in the Arctic Gateway areas and in global environments. As economic
development continues to grow, the established organizations within the Arctic
Gateway will be seen as having a strong experiential base. But it may be even
more important that relationships developed throughout the Arctic Gateways and
the Arctic will be seen as high value components by those entities wanting to
establish or extend their operations in the Arctic.
In short, the organizations that emphasize the development of good and extensive
relationships throughout the Arctic and the Arctic Gateway will be well positioned
to prosper because of these highly critical yet delicate relationships that need to
be cultivated in a challenging, yet economically promising Arctic operational
environment.
PART V ARCTIC COUNCIL
Permanent Participants
The First Nations and Indigenous people of the circumpolar region maintain
permanent participation roles on the Arctic Council. They must represent a single
indigenous people resident in more than one Arctic State or more than one Arctic
indigenous people resident in a single Arctic State in order to maintain their
permanent participation role. Politically, the governments of the permanent
participation indigenous people have reservations about bringing more nations
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into permanent observer status because there is concern that additional powerful
nation states at the table will tend to eclipse their presence.The Arctic Imperative
Summit has acted as in inspirational forum that supports full participation of the
indigenous people at the decision table. The Icelandic President made the
observation that the Arctic Council is recognized my many nations around the
World as a body where the indigenous people have a strong voice, where they are
able to collaborate with the circumpolar nations and have their input both heard
and respected in a collaborative manner. There exists a history of trust issues
between the indigenous people of the far north in the United States; this is also
true of Canada.
The ability of the indigenous people to have an authoritative role in the
development of the land they have lived on for thousands of years is embraced by
the Arctic Council and by the Arctic Imperative Summit. There are also enormous
knowledge assets to be gained by full indigenous participation insomuch as their
knowledge of the land, the sea, and the wildlife is vast. These underlying realities
color the political situation that exists in the Arctic of Canada and the United
States.
The Arctic Council was formally established by the Ottawa Declaration in 1996 and
consists of member states, permanent observer states, and ad-hoc observer
states. The council was established to provide an international forum for
circumpolar states to work on measures that concern the Arctic. Beyond the
cooperation and forum potential, as Arctic issues continue to grow in global
importance, political and economic issues such as shipping, search and rescue,
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plus climate change and matters related to energy and resource exploration will
grow in importance to all stakeholders of the Arctic Council. Ostensibly, the Arctic
Council was not intended to become a wide ranging multinational governance
body with global participation. The reality, however, is that considerable interest
is developing relative to Arctic matters.
To the extent the organization may remain in a unique position globally, it will continue to
prosper and gradually elevate the importance of the voice of the Arctic Council. The
Arctic Council elevates its importance and ability to influence what transpires in the areas
of the Arctic that are beyond the continental extensions of nations states is precisely
because of the unique mix of stakeholders, extending across nation state borders, such
as the Athabaskan People.
Until recently, the Arctic Council did not have a Permanent Secretariat, a factor that was
widely seen as important to the future of the Council. The first director for a standing
Arctic Council Secretariat in Tromsø has been presented at the SAO meeting in
Haparanda. Magnús Jóhannesson, will assume the first permanent director position. Mr.
Jóhannesson will be assuming this role moving over from his current role as the Secretary
General of the Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources of Iceland. The site of
the future standing Arctic Council Secretariat will be located in Tromsø, Norway (Arctic
Council, 2012).
Arctic Athabaskan Council
The Arctic Athabaskan Council is comprised of Canadian and American First Nation
Governments and is a permanent participant in the Arctic Council. Their people
range from Alaska through the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and British Columbia.
The Arctic Athabaskan Council covers people from a vast territory that crosses
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international borders, like all permanent participants, they enjoy full consultation
rights.
Figure 17 - Athabaskan People
Source: http://www.arcticathabaskancouncil.com/aac/?q=node/5
The Athabaskan Council represents Americans and Canadians.
Permanent participant status is accorded to the Arctic Athabaskan Council
because they may be considered a single indigenous people resident in more than
one nation state. The Arctic Athabaskan Council represents people from an area
over three million square miles, speaking twenty three different languages. The
Athabascan people have continuously inhabited vast areas of the Arctic for over
ten thousand years; they have governance representatives in the United States
and Canada.
Aleut International association
The Aleut International Association (AIA) represents Russian and American Aleut
people. The Aleut have traditionally lived in the North Pacific and Bearing Sea for
thousands of years. The Aleut International Association was formed to steward
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cultural and environmental matters. They traditionally live in the North Pacific and
Bearing Sea.
In addition to the obvious fishery resources, there are many other economic areas
of interest represented by the AIA through a board of four Russian and American
Aleut’s and a President. Though separated by the legal boundaries and two
nations, the Aleut have stood for millennia before their respective nation states
existed.
Gwich’in Council International
Founded in Inuvik, the Gwich’in Council International represents people from
Canada and the United States. The Gwich’in participation includes socio-economic
matters, issues related to climate change and environmental stewardship, and
preservation of the culture and traditions.
The Gwich’in Council International represents people from the Northwest
Territories, Yukon, and Alaska. International representation brings the Gwich’in
their permanent status at the Arctic Council and allows their contribution of
thousands of years of knowledge, like to other permanent observers, to be shared
with the Arctic Council.
Inuit circumpolar council
The Inuit Circumpolar Council represents a broad spectrum of nation states at the
Arctic Council including the Inuit of the United States, Canada, Greenland,
Denmark, and Russia. In addition to enjoying Permanent Participant status at the
Arctic Council, the Inuit Circumpolar Council also enjoys Consultative Status II at
the United Nations. 89
Their goals are to strengthen Inuit relations on the circumpolar level and provide a
strong voice for the Intuit people at all levels of the international organizations
they participate with.
Russian Association of Indigenous peoples of the north
The Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North represents forty one
groups of indigenous peoples totalling over 270,000 and most of whom live
throughout the Russian Federation territory from Murmansk to Kamchatka. The
Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples participates with the United Nations
Economic and Social Council and they have special consultative status on the
United Nations Governing Council and Global Ministerial Environment Forum.
Members of the Association are also members of the Public Chamber of the
Russian Federation.
Saami council
The Saami Council is made up of Saami from Finland, Norway, Sweeden, and
Russia and was organized for a number of reasons, amongst which is the
representation of economic, social, and cultural rights in the legislative bodies of
the four nation states where they reside. In addition to this organizational goal,
the Saami have attained permanent participation status on the Arctic Council.
COUNCIL MEMBERS
Russian Federation
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The Russian Federation has, by far, the most extensive polar class infrastructure
complimented by over a dozen polar class ice breakers. During the Cold War with
the United States, the U.S. strategy of containment probably played a role in how
the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) viewed their Arctic strategies.
Certain decisions to invest in Arctic ports and ice breaking capacity have returned
a post Cold War dividend to the Russian Federation.
As part of the U.S.S.R. strategy to project blue water naval forces sufficient to
exert global power and provide the fleet with access to the high seas, the
Northern Fleet received tremendous investment. This resulted in a strong
Northern Fleet infrastructure during the time of the USSR. Although it was not of
the stature of the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets initially, the Northern Fleet grew and
began extensive circumpolar navigation operations during the Cold War.
Subsequently, the Russian Federation retains beneficial positioning insomuch as
the naval forces have extensive polar experience, large infrastructure exists, and
the northern sea route is seen as the most attractive route for commercial
shipping. The Russian Federation naval forces operate two thirds of their nuclear
fleet in the Barents Sea and maintain several naval bases.
The economics of this are substantiated by significant population centers in the
high arctic of the Russian Federation. Because there are considerable population
centers in the Russian Arctic, it becomes more practicable to economically sustain
a larger force in the far north.
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The recent political story is the Russian Federation positioning for hydrocarbon
and mineral wealth by extension of their EEZ through claims of continental shelf
extensions, namely, through their claims on the Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev
Ridge.
The Russian Federation claims over 460,000 square miles of Arctic waters with the
argument this area was an extension of their continental shelf through the two
undersea ridges. The United Nations has not agreed with the claim of the Russian
Federation, but this did not prevent the Russian Federation from making the highly
symbolic gesture of planting a Russian Federation flag on the sea floor to
substantiate their claim.
United States
With considerable energy reserves, the Naval Petroleum Reserve – Alaska (NPR),
established in 1923 by President Warren G. Harding when the U.S. Navy was
converting from a coal fired Navy to oil powered vessels. The land was placed in
reserve under the ownership of the U.S. Government and later transferred to the
U.S. Department of the Interior. Now managed by the Bureau of Land
Management (BLM), over 1.5 million acres have been leased. Some of the land
has been opened for leases have been contested by the State of Alaska to protect
environmentally sensitive lands.
Considerable reserves may be recovered offshore in the Chuckchi Sea and Shell
Oil is currently drilling three exploratory wells under the most stringent safety
controls arguably in the World. In addition to the NPR, the Alaska National Wildlife
Refuge (ANWR) contains substantial reserves. Located on the northeast corner of
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Alaska, ANWR is a major wildlife refuge for especially sensitive species including
those upon which indigenous populations have traditionally harvested for
subsistence.
The ability to explore for hydrocarbons has been met with considerable opposition
from environmental groups and indigenous people. Alaska has very large
hydrocarbon resources available, yet they have major issues to contend with
including conservation, harsh Arctic conditions, extensive regulation, and
numerous stakeholders who do not always agree.
The reason for the American presence on the Arctic Council and their position with
the group of circumpolar powers is summed up in one word, Alaska. Due to the
good fortune of the Seward land purchase, Alaska and her resources became part
of the United States.
Alaska has been an active Arctic hydrocarbon producer with extensive fields of the
North Shore. TAPS, however, is currently running at about 600,000 barrels a day
and declining. There is political pressure to start exploring for oil in more areas
and the prospect of economic development has a certain appeal to the indigenous
people, but the situation is anything but resolved. Additional concerns surround
the possibility of offshore spills, OSR capacity, and the potential for irreparable
damage to sensitive marine life. Meanwhile, the State of Alaska is seeking a
viable path to fill TAPS back up, moving both capacity and revenue in a beneficial
financial direction for Alaska.
Canada
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Canada has recognized the vast importance of the Arctic punctuated by annual
visits by the Prime Minister as a symbolic act. In addition, the growth of Arctic
capable SAR/OSR, and military assets are designed to support the sovereign
claims of Canada in the Arctic.
Canada also has the unique position of having a large Inuit population that
stretches across the Arctic. In May of 2013, the Chair of the Arctic Council
transitioned from Sweden to Canada as Nunavut's Leona Aglukkaq became the
first Inuk person ever to lead the Arctic Council; she took over from Sweden’s
Foreign Minister Carl Bildt during a ceremony in Kiruna, Sweden.
While it marks Canada’s chairmanship of the Council, it is also a source of great
pride for the indigenous people of the Arctic since this is the very first time an
indigenous person will lead the Council. Aglukkaq began by sharing her focus for
building sustainable communities and developing economic resources.
From the time of the Defense Early Warning Line (DEW line), Canada and the
United States have shared military assets and collaborated closely in the Arctic.
The people of both nations interact with each other in the high Arctic, ANWR
borders Canada, and the continued collaboration takes a variety of shapes from
ice breaking duties to search and rescue.
With extensive petroleum reserves known to exist in the Canadian Arctic, the
government of Canada has proceeded with the development of a stronger Arctic
policy. The United Nations will resolve disputed claims related to continental shelf
extensions and exclusive economic zones will be a matter of contention, with the
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Russian Federation, Greenland (Denmark), and Canada staking their claims in the
Arctic.
Canada has also enjoyed strong indigenous support internationally, with the kind
words from the Mayor of the Barrow Borough, for the appointment of Leona
Aglukaq to be the Canadian representative to the Arctic Council. In addition to the
indigenous people of Alaska, Canada enjoys the praise of other circumpolar
nations for the appointment of an indigenous person to assume leadership role for
Canada during the period of Canadian leadership of the Arctic Council.
Canada operates 3 polar class ice breakers, numerous smaller arctic class vessels,
and continues to patrol the far north with military forces and Canadian Rangers
who are indigenous people who patrol the high Arctic. The Government of Canada
continues to forge ahead with development of Arctic policy while placing the
interests of national security, the environment, and the indigenous people in a
mixture of responsible decision making that outlines the perspective of the
Government of Canada and the Canadian people of the high Arctic.
Iceland
By far the smallest of the circumpolar nations with barely a corner of Icelandic
territory nipping the Arctic Circle, Iceland is home to one of the great champions of
the Arctic, President Olafur Grimsson. Very few leaders have ever been more
instrumental in bringing a noble cause to light across the World. The Icelandic
President clearly ranks as a visionary person, but he also has introduced very
important concepts and observations upon which successful Arctic policy can be
based.
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The Icelandic President has noted the critical importance of full indigenous
participation in the Arctic, singling out the Arctic Council as a dynamic and unique
body that not only serves the Arctic, but also provides the only environment where
the United States and Russian meet in a collaborative environment without the
extended participation of many nations that could introduce their individual
agenda to the dialogue.
Iceland, while very much invested and prospering with environmental leadership
and political goodwill, still looks to the sea as a source of income. The Iceland
fishing industry is second in the North Atlantic only to Norway, and accounts for a
large portion of Iceland’s exports, posting well over a quarter of Iceland’s overall
export income.
Norway
Norwegian success in managing their offshore reserves is staggering by any
standard of measure. The Norwegian people decided to invest their oil revenues
from offshore oil production and to continue to pass along the costs of government
through taxation without dipping into their energy income. This has resulted in
having an investment fund rapidly approaching a value of 800 billion dollars, this
compares to 48 billion in the Alaska Permanent fund and about 12 billion in the
Alberta Heritage fund (as of 2012).
Norway is dedicated to the object that the circumpolar nations should focus on
settling their disputes over the resource laden Arctic in a peaceful manner.
Norway recognizes that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intends to
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be more active in the Arctic and Russia is becoming increasingly vocal about
additional military deployments in the Arctic.
As the Norwegian oil reserves in the North Sea begin to draw down, Norway will be
need to look for economic diversification and their share of the Arctic, while not
huge, can still have a significant impact. Because Norway is very active with the
Arctic Council and other forums like the Arctic Imperative Summit and the
emerging Arctic Circle, it’s pretty safe to expect Norway will pay close attention to
the various Arctic pathways for their own future. Hydrocarbon and hydrocarbon
technologies have been very lucrative for Norway, they have prospered. The
Norwegian presence at Arctic and other circumpolar events will likely remain an
important core of their identity.
Sweden
Sweden chaired the Arctic Council until it handed over the chair to Canada in May
of 2013 at the Meeting in Kiruna. Protecting indigenous heritage and health has
been important to all circumpolar nations, Sweden has chaired the Arctic Council
just as it starts to occupy a major role in the center of global politics and is
emerging as a major feature of foreign policy for not only circumpolar nations, but
for the entire World.
As has been pointed out by many interested parties, there was no permanent
Secretariat for the Arctic Council. With the transfer to Canada, it was widely
though that Sweden would continue to work to attain a permanent secretariat.
This was seen as something that would enhance the global role of circumpolar
nations and enhance overall Arctic importance. It was also required to create the
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continuity required to undertake the substantial work that remains in front of the
Arctic Council.
Sweden and Norway, having a closely intertwined history, worked very hard with
other Council members to attain a permanent secretariat, a move forward for the
Arctic Council that was helped along by Sweden while it chaired the council.
Finland
When Finland dispatched their Ambassador to the Arctic Imperative Summit they
were sending a message to the World, that the Arctic is critically important to
Finland. Finland strongly advocated for a permanent secretariat, as did Sweden.
Finland also has an interest in European Union participation. Currently, the E.U.
has ad-hoc observer status.
Finland, like the other Scandinavian nations, finds themselves in a geographical
and geopolitical position where they prosper when they are able to collaborate
with all the circumpolar nations. This, of course, could be complicated unless
there is a continuing strong commitment to peaceful and meaning collaboration
amongst the circumpolar nations.
Finland has about a quarter of their country north of the Arctic circle, although
may areas in the southern part of Finland enjoy more modest climates due the
gulf stream. Finland shares borders with other circumpolar nations and has long
been a strong advocate for Arctic matters.
Denmark
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Denmark has a significant interest in the Arctic just like the other circumpolar
nations. Denmark has a very interesting position because their largest presence
on the circumpolar map is through Greenland. But Greenland, with a population
that is mostly Intuit, probably shares more in common with the Canadian Arctic
than with Denmark. Denmark continues to support Greenland financially as the
national government of Greenland.
It is difficult to predict precisely what will happen with the relationship between
Denmark and Greenland, but that will color the nature of the relationship Denmark
has. It is likely that close ties will remain between Greenland and Denmark for the
foreseeable future, but another interesting aspect of Greenland is the large Intuit
population. Clearly, given the proximity to the Intuit population of Canada, it is
likely one of the closest ties external to the long lasting relationship with Denmark
may well be the Intuit population of Canada.
Arctic Council Observer Status
With the introduction of observer status, the role of the Arctic Council has started
to become more visible on the global stage, this has been accelerated due to the
rapid changes in Arctic climatology and the geopolitical ramifications of an ice free
Arctic.
Non Arctic Observers of the Arctic Council
FRANCE
UK
NETHERLANDS
GERMANY
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SPAIN
POLAND
Intergovernmental and Inter-parliamentary
International Federation of Red Cross & Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)
International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
Nordic Council of Ministers (NCM)
Nordic Environment Finance Corporation (NEFCO)
North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission (NAMMCO)
Standing Committee of the Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region (SCPAR)
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN-ECE)
United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)
Non Governmental Organizations (NGO)
Advisory Committee on Protection of the Seas (ACOPS)
Arctic Circumpolar Gateway
Association of World Reindeer Herders (AWRH)
Circumpolar Conservation Union (CCU)
International Arctic Science Committee (IASC)
International Arctic Social Sciences Association (IASSA)
International Union for Circumpolar Health (IUCH)
International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs (IWGIA)
Northern Forum (NF)
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University of the Arctic (UArctic)
World Wide Fund for Nature-Global Arctic Program (WWF)
Applicants for Observer Status
Numerous countries are applicants for Observer Status within the Arctic Council.
The EU, Italy, Japan, and China have been ad-hoc observer states. The Council
approves member states for permanent observer status.
Observer states typically receive invitations for most of the Council meetings, but
they do not typically function with working groups, although this is likely to
change.
This is because of the immense importance of the evolving realities vis-à-vis
transoceanic shipping, military, and resource acquisition strategies in the
doughnut hole of the Arctic. The Arctic doughnut hole is the area that falls beyond
the limit of the continental shelf of the circumpolar nation states and has vast
resources available.
In addition to the ability to participate in the development and shaping of policies
that may have impact upon international access to Arctic resources, there are
powerful economic drivers, mainly due to access to Arctic transshipment lanes,
which would save many nations tremendous expenses in accessing large markets
traditionally served by non-Arctic shipping routes.
For the Arctic Council, this represents in interesting situation whereby increased
interest in the Council, while equating to greater influence for the organization,
also represents the potential to increase the complexity of the organization and, in
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the long run, potentially create a bureaucratic environment that may be less
effective.
At the very least, the increasing interest in the Arctic and the growing number of
applications for Observer status indicate a need for amplified budgets to sustain
appropriate permanent infrastructure and organizational support for the Arctic
Council.
In the May 2013 session, the NGO’s such as the Association of Oil and Gas
Producers along with Greenpeace were denied observer status by the Council
Members. In addition, the European Union was also denied due to their ban on
seal products. This was considered the only main reason why the EU should be
banned, citing the EU’s position on seal products being largely based on political
pressures from animal rights groups rather than being based on observable
scientific facts. China, India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Italy were all
granted observer status.
China
The government of China is understandably interested in Arctic affairs. Due to the
growth of the Chinese economy and global trading interests, it is logical that China
would take a very direct interest in the Arctic, particularly the prospect of
commercial shipping. China has invested in a polar class research vessel and a
polar class icebreaker. During the last few years, the Chinese polar class vessels
have spent time in the Arctic and have carried out diplomatic missions as well. In
August of 2012, the Chinese ice breaker crew was hosted by Icelandic President
Grimsson.
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Figure 18 - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao meets with Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson
At the 2nd Arctic Imperative Summit, President Grimsson of Iceland noted the
Chinese have paid Iceland numerous high level visits over the last few years while
circumpolar nations with a more direct interest such as the United States have not
done the same.
In April of 2012, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Icelandic President Olafur
Ragnar Grimsson in Reykjavik for bilateral discussions (China, 2012). This was
followed up with the first visit of a Chinese Polar Class Icebreaker, the Xuelong, to
Iceland in August of 2012 (China, 2012).
The Government of Norway, while initially supportive of granting the Chinese
Permanent Observer Status, has since cooled in their viewpoint. Because the
Nobel Prize was awarded to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, an individual the
Chinese government considers to be a criminal, diplomatic relations between
China and Norway have cooled (AFP, 2012). Until the Chinese and Norwegians are
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able to mend their political row, it would conceivably be rather difficult for Norway
to fully support Permanent Observer status for China.
Italy
The Italian government has declared a strong interest in the Arctic. This is, in
part, probably reflective of the energy exploration partnership between Russia’s
Rosneft and Eni, Italy’s largest industrial corporation (RT, 2012). ENI is partially
owned by the government of the Italian Republic. The Italian Republic owns
approximately a 30% interest in combination with the Italian state treasury and
the Cassa depositi e prestiti, an Italian bank that is approximately 70% owned by
the Italian treasury.
In other words, the Italian government has a direct interest in Arctic hydrocarbon
exploration and their interests in the Arctic would be largely centralized on that
investment although it would also be beneficial for any EU nation to benefit from
the shorter import/export routes offered by the Arctic.
Japan
Japan’s interest in the Arctic arises from an economy that requires the importation
of an enormous amount of foreign based energy feedstock. Although it is true
that Japan has considerable capacity for nuclear power generation, other
feedstock vital to the Japanese economy, such as liquid natural gas (LNG), must be
acquired from international sources.
Here again, reduction in transoceanic shipping routes via the Arctic are
exceptionally attractive for the Japanese. It should be noted, however, that Japan
consumes an enormous percentage of the global fish production. It has been 104
stated that Japan consumes one of every ten fish eaten. Japan also engages in
whaling. The doughnut hole of the Arctic, if navigable to fishing vessels, would
likely seem extraordinarily attractive to Japanese commercial fishing interests.
Japan also engages in polar research and has had an extensive history of interest
in the area of methane hydrate production. It would seem likely that Japan has a
strong interest in the Arctic as an area where potentially vast amounts of methane
could be acquired, international fuel shipment routes could be enhanced, and of
course, their ongoing gastronomic interest in fish and whale stocks.
Republic of Korea
The Republic of Korea holds similar interests in the Arctic that may be quite similar
to those of Japan. Korea is second only to Japan in imports of LNG. South Korea
already has polar class vessels and an Arctic research program. The Korean Gas
Company (KOGAS) has a 20% stake in the Umiak 31 SDL gas field estimated to
hold over 328 bcf of gas. With this stake in the gas fields near the massive gas
deposits of the Mackenzie Valley, the largest question is centered on transport.
Here again, the Koreans are thinking in terms of building icebreaking and
transport vessels capable of moving LNG through multi-year ice.
It is within the realm of the Koreans to build polar class LNG transport vessels and
icebreakers capable of dealing with multiyear ice. Samsung Heavy Industries
have already built three such icebreakers for Russia’s Sovcomflot shipping
company. Korea is probably mostly interested in the economic and scientific
opportunities of the Arctic plus their ability to take a leading role in constructing
polar class vessels (Bennett, 2011).
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Korea established research station Dasan at the Ny Alesund and has been actively
engaged in research on issues relating to climate and marine species ecology.
Singapore
Singapore made application to become a permanent observer after the Arctic
Council’s rules of procedure from May of 2011. As such, Singapore does not
attend Council meetings or working groups of the council as an ad hoc observer.
The changes toward a direction of inclusivity of non Arctic nations if they are able
to meet the criteria adopted at the May 2011. Singapore rests their application
upon their maritime interests, their position as a hub port, and their industrial
interests as leading marine engineering technology center. The case of Singapore
is supported in a very important way by having an interest in the Arctic and
expertise relevant to the work of the council (Council, 2011).
India
In 2007, India established the research station Himadri at Ny Alesund. The
Himadri research station operates as an office of the Indian National Centre for
Antarctic and Ocean Research (NCAOR), part of India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences.
India has undertaken seven expeditions to the Arctic.
India has placed orders for a dedicated vessel specifically designed for polar
expeditions and was expected to join NCAOR. India also conducts research in the
Antarctic and, as such, brings important expertise sets that span the Antarctic and
the Arctic (India, n.d.). India also enjoys support from the President of Iceland due
to the important perspectives India brings as a nation with vast glacial resources
in the Himalayas, tying in the AHA concept.
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European Union
The EU has a considerable economic and political interest in the Arctic. At first
blush, the obvious economic drivers are applicable across the breadth of the EU,
but they also make a strong claim in terms of geographical positioning. Denmark
(Greenland), Finland, and Sweden have Arctic territories; Iceland and Norway are
members of the European Economic Area, and Canada, Russia and the United
States are strategic partners with the EU.
There is little doubt the EU represents a large political entity with logical claims to
be represented at the Council. The EU has extensive Arctic policy proposals and
numerous and detailed strategies and positions reflecting a considerable amount
of collaboration.
EU human rights concerning indigenous peoples of the European Union also frame
the policy suggestions and papers regarding the Arctic. In a communication from
the Commission to the European Parliament and Council relating to the European
Union and the Arctic region, the Commission stated “The main goal must be to
prevent and mitigate the negative impact of climate change as well as to support
adaptation to inevitable changes. Prevention and mitigation action should also
concern other global and trans-boundary processes with negative impacts in the
Arctic, such as long-range transport of pollutants. This should be complemented
by developing a holistic, ecosystem-based management of human activities,
ensuring that the latter are administered in a sustainable way, integrating
environmental considerations at all levels.” (EU, 2008).
Oceana
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Oceana is a high profile Non Governmental Organization (NGO) that has taken a
strong interest in the Arctic and the Arctic Council. Oceana identifies issues
relevant to the overall health of the Oceans and then decides how to focus
resources to attain a favorable outcome on the issues they focus on. In many
cases, Oceana will advocate for local, regional, and international policy changes.
Association of Oil and Gas Producers
The Association of Oil and Gas Producers (OGP) seeks to develop communications
between the oil and gas industry and growing international regulatory bodies.
Given the importance of the Arctic, in terms of having approximately a quarter of
the remaining hydrocarbons on Earth, the OGP is particularly interested in the
Arctic Council.
Issues of environment, health, safety, security, and social responsibility are core
areas of interest for the OGP. This organization represents most of the major oil
and gas producers. Organizations such as the OGP seek to collaborate with
organizations such as the Arctic Council when developing reports that
recommended practices for Arctic oil spill prevention and OSR infrastructure
requirements.
Such reports are exemplified by a report falling under the heading of emergency
prevention, preparedness, and response recommended practices for Arctic oil spill
prevention. (Council & Project, 2013) That report was commissioned by the
Norwegian Coastal Administration and filed with the Arctic Council; the
ramifications for OGP is substantial. As such, they wish to have their interests
represented.
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OSPAR Commission
Originally formed in 1972 by the Oslo Convention against dumping, the Oslo-Paris
Commission is a regional organization that includes 15 member states which are
Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, The
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom.
OSPAR has different regions and Region 1 covers the area of the North Atlantic to
the Arctic waters. Their membership includes member states of the Arctic Council,
namely, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Iceland. OSPAR has interests in the
biodiversity of the area, cultural interests, and resource development.
Figure 19 - OSPAR Region 1
Source: http://www.ospar.org/content/content.asp?menu=00420211000000_000000_000000
Greenpeace
Greenpeace is an international organization dedicated to protecting the
environment. Similar to Oceana, but it is much older and very well established
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across the globe. Greenpeace is able to elevate media attention to environmental
issues.
The Greenpeace application for permanent observer status with the Arctic Council
is largely motivated by a strong desire to participate in the shaping of
environmental policies that will impact the Arctic.
International Hydrographic Organisation
The International Hydrographic Organisation (IHO) coordinates the work and
standards of international hydrographic offices. Every member state in the Arctic
Council is a member of the IHO. As the Arctic becomes more accessible, the
obvious need for standardized hydrographic products and coordination of
international hydrographic surveys will be increasingly important.
World Meteorological Organization
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a collaborative research body
that functions as the United Nations voice on the global climate. The membership
consists of 191 countries and as the UN’s primary agency that advises on global
climate change, the role of the WMO in the Arctic is imperative. In addition to the
scientific contributions, the WMO also contributes to funding various research sites
in the Arctic and participating on various scientific inquiries.
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
The Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) is an organization for
undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral students and early faculty members
who have a research interest in polar regions and the cryosphere. APECS has the
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goal of creating enhanced international and interdisciplinary scientific research
opportunities.
As the interest in polar science has accelerated along with climate change
research, the APECS conferences and interdisciplinary research opportunities have
increased. APECS maintains a variety of outreach, research activities, and
educational outreach programs.
Arctic Council and Arctic Circle
One of the newer groups with a strong interest in the Arctic is called the Arctic
Circle. After the Arctic Imperative Summits I and II, it became evident that it
would be beneficial for all parties interested in the Arctic to have a forum where
they could collaborate and work together to advance Arctic understanding of
climate change, economic interests, cultural interests, and so forth.
But the club like environment of the Arctic Council prohibited many interested
parties from having direct participation in a global forum. Because of this, the
success of the Arctic Imperative Summits has now evolved into a new forum called
the Arctic Circle, where everybody can gather to meet on matters of importance to
them, learn from each other, and further international cooperation in the Arctic.
The Arctic Circle is a very unique forum and none like it exists anywhere else in
the circumpolar world. Some of the participants in the Arctic Circle are from the
Arctic, Himalayan, Antarctic (AHA) nations that possess most of the glaciers on the
planet. The Arctic Circle advocates for increased dialogue with the three critical
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ice regions of the Earth and for an open forum where anybody with genuine
interest can collaborate and participate.
It should be noted that the most proliferous ice reserves outside of the Polar
Regions are the Himalayan nations. The rate of de-glaciation in all of these areas
continues to accelerate at a rapid pace and the consequences will impact billions
of people.
Perhaps after a couple decades, as sea level predictions are constantly increased,
we may come to witness the headcount of the displaced shifting from millions, to
tens of millions, to the hundreds of millions. Accordingly, the Arctic Circle believes
the time has come to encourage open dialogue and bring together people in
forums like the Arctic Circle where people who are interested in these matters can
collaborate and contribute in a meaningful way.
How the Arctic Circle develops and what that means for the Arctic Council has yet
to be determined. The Arctic Circle has yet to fully establish how their role will
grow and what it will ultimately become. Some have called it a sort of non-aligned
version of the Arctic Council, but most prefer to think of it as an open forum where
invitations are not required to participate.
PART VI GEO STRATEGIC INFLUENCE
Clearly, one of the more interesting aspects of the Arctic is the nature of the
people who live there and the incredible fact that the vast majority of the
population of circumpolar nations have never actually visited the Arctic, either in
their own nations or in other circumpolar nations. This seems to be almost
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astounding. In Canada, a nation that is so closely identified with being north, and
a country where polar identification is closely tied to the national identity, over
95% of the population have never been to the Arctic.
The Arctic is more than an abstract concept, but for so many people in circumpolar
nations, it remains a central part of the national identity while, at the same time, it
remains somewhat distant and abstract. Another interesting aspect of Arctic
people is that they seem to have a fierce loyalty to their way of life, their Arctic,
and their identity. It’s probably quite natural for anybody to have a strong identity
with their land and their people, but it also seems as though the people of the
Arctic retain some amount of skepticism in the interest of what they see as
Southerners.
In essence, there remains a bit of disconnect between the Arctic and the rest of
the circumpolar populations, but it is unlikely this level of disconnect will remain
intact indefinitely as greater resource development occurs. As that happens,
more and more southerners will come to the Arctic. As the Arctic waters gradually
become more and more ice “free” for longer periods of time, it is likely more
tourists will find their way to the Arctic.
The Arctic holds a lot of fascination for the citizens of the circumpolar nations and
as greater numbers of people find their way to the Arctic, the costs associated
with travel to the Arctic will begin to recede. Much like the climate change model
of a positive feedback loop, more people in the Arctic will act as an enabler to
bring still more people to the Arctic. The impact will this have on the lives of the
traditional people of the Arctic remains to be seen. Whatever transpires, it is likely
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to take some amount of time and hopefully that will generate enough time to
create the kind of transition that will be of greatest benefit to the people of the
Arctic.
Strategic Relationships
Obviously, in an environment where relationships have developed in tight knit
communities over centuries, it is not a simple matter to show up and expect local
people will want to accept you and do business with you. There will, by default, be
some amount of relationship building required.
As Southern communities begin to develop relationships with northern
communities, some amount of strategic positioning is helpful. Existing business
interests in the Arctic already have many relationships in Southern areas and vice-
versa. In addition to the economic ties, the relationships that grow span
friendships throughout connected organizations. Growing institutional
relationships, a spirit of openness, and a strong sense of wanting to do something
right contributes to a spirit of wise stewardship of the Arctic; it is a driving force
for many participants.
Perhaps, in many ways, the chance to do it right in the Arctic is a thrilling
opportunity that speaks to the entire World. The ability to focus on the future and
go well beyond the necessities of a generation to the requirements of future
generations to come; that shows all of us how much we can believe in the future
no matter where we are from or what our individual interests are.
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All across the planet, there are numerous people who remember the Cold War.
They recall a time when it was unthinkable for Russians and Americans to
collaborate in a meaningful way, now they are friends after spending so many
decades as mortal enemies.
Interestingly, places like the Arctic Council and forums like the Arctic Circle
provide former enemies, like the Americans and the Russians, with a place to
meet and collaborate on important issues in a spirit of peace and mutual
collaboration. There will always be certain risks associated with doing business
internationally. Decisions tend to be made with the values and morals of the day.
Striking a positive outlook for long term relationships that provide key partners
with measureable benefits will help create ongoing relationships. As these
relationships mature and combine in a variety of ways, with all the players of the
region, a nexus of cooperation emerges; one that will be necessary to protect the
delicate environment of the Arctic.
Global power shifts will modify strategies for national defense and international
projection of power. Managing multiple channels for business, diplomatic, and
collaborative endeavours will inevitably become a core part of our Arctic reality for
the rest of the 21st century.
Polar Class Icebreakers and Polar Transportation
The Russian Federation currently maintains a fleet of nuclear and diesel polar
class ice breakers with plans to build more. The Union of Soviet Socialist
Republics, now the Russian Federation, has a long history of navigating the Arctic.
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Massive economic wealth has long been one of the driving influences of their
Arctic development. Make no mistake about it, their Arctic capabilities have been
intregral to national security policy as well. These two driving factors have
resulted in the Russian Federation having undisputed icebreaking superiority.
Russian port infrastructure and naval capacity, safter navigation routes, along with
SAR presence, makes the northern sea route on the Russian side far more
attractive than the northwest passage on the Canadian side. The Canadian Coast
Guard maintains a fleet of 18 icebreakers (Canada, 2011) led by two Heavy
Icebreakers, the CCGS Louis St.-Laurent and the CCGS Terry Fox. Canada’s four
Medium Icebreakers, the CCGS Amundsen, CCGS Des Groseilliers, CCGS Henry
Larsen, and CCGS Pierre Radisson are supplemented by a fleet of seven Light
Icebreakers and other multi tasked vehicles, many of which operate in the Great
Lakes and the St. Lawerence Seaway.
The Russian federation operates three nuclear powered icebreakers led by the
Sovetskiy Soyuz, Yamal, 50 Let Pobedy with plans to build several more. These
vessels are accompanied by over thirty icebreakers in the deisel class; the
Russians also operate numerous multi tasked vehicles.
The Swedes operate numerous Icebreakers including the Oden, the first non
nuclear icebreaker to reach the North Pole (Nilsen, 2012). The United States
currently maintains one polar class ice breaker in the Arctic, Canada maintains
three, SAR options are relatively limited and deepwater ports are distant from
shipping routes.
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Arctic Summits
The Second Arctic Imperative Summit, convened in Anchorage at Alyeska in
Girdwood, Alaska drew leaders from around the circumpolar world including the
President of Iceland and high level government representatives from Finland,
Greenland, Canada, and the United States. Corporate leaders, think tank leaders,
and government officials were present with a large contingent of Alaskan leaders.
The matrix of organizations and people gathered reflect the importance of the
high Arctic and it serves as a notice of the impending perception that geo-
strategic importance surrounding Arctic affairs, as a matter of widespread interest,
is gaining rapid uptake.
With the high level attendance of the President of Iceland, International
Ambassadors, Ministers, and Diplomatic Staff, the profile of the Arctic Imperative
Summit was impressive and thorough.
Everywhere an individual turned, they would meet and converse with some of the
finest thought leaders with a common interest in global climate change and the
requirements of development in an environmentally responsible manner. In
addition, the overwhelming aura of the conference is as noticeable as the aurora
borealis; the people were all there to learn about the last great frontier left on our
Earth. One of the few places where there are areas, as far as the eye can see,
where no human has ever walked.
The collaboration with First Nations and their leading role in shaping policies that
will impact the circumpolar region is ubiquitous in environments like the Arctic
Imperative Summit or the Arctic Council. Millennia of anecdotal information, 117
preservation of unique cultures, traditions, and languages are strongly valued. In
addition to potentially vast hydrocarbon resources that could do things like fill
TAPS again and renew exceptional prosperity to the State of Alaska and the
Indigenous peoples.
Numerous opportunities exist, and the nexus of political leaders, business leaders,
and policy makers from many of the most important circumpolar participants
make the Arctic Imperative Summit one of the leading public forums on the Arctic
that exists in the World today. The Arctic Imperative Summit has evolved into the
Arctic Circle as previously discussed, and the full impact of the group is still
evolving.
In addition to all the great business and academic opportunities that exist in the
Arctic, there are numerous opportunities for think tank collaborations. Stepping
beyond the research of a graduate student and bridging the gap into the great
think tanks of the World. Between some of the highest ranking military leaders in
North America, the largest and most influential think tanks, tremendous banking
power, and global corporate leadership, the Summit accorded a rare opportunity
to bring all levels of input into the Arctic, and to receive all of the different thinking
possible.
Relationships developed at the Summit span all levels of possible interest that
spans public and private. But through it all, there was no cultural negotiation; all
parties were brought together as equals. Through this direction, the precious idea
of hope remains as strong as ever, it permeates the meetings and the participants
take it back home with them.
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This spirit of international collaboration for something that is more important than
the interests of any one person or organization was well understood by all the
participants. It is a very unique and worthwhile experience and it is likely the
evolution of the Arctic Imperative Summit into the Arctic Circle will continue to
embrace these fundamental precepts.
Ties That Bind
The people of the Arctic are unique, but at the same time, there are
characteristics that are shared with other cultures that know subsistence
backgrounds and have ties to the traditions that speak to survival in a harsh
environment. Such cultures have a strong tradition of deep relationship building.
In western culture, business relationships have little to do with family ties,
traditional relationships, or other longitudinal influence factors. This, of course, is
not true in every western society.
Japan, for example, has a long tradition of close ties with their business partners,
often cited in Toyota Manufacturing models as being based on keiretsu, a close-
knit network of vendors that continuously learn, improve, and prosper along with
their parent companies. This has traditionally been cited as a core part of the
underlying strategy behind Honda and Toyota's supplier relationships. The
concept of keiretsu can be traced back in Japanese business structures to the 19th
Century, but it is likely a derivative of pre-existing relationships amongst Japanese
interests that preceded the 19th century.
Arctic communities have forged a living under difficult conditions. Subsistence
living, not entirely unlike what would have been common for subsistence cultures
119
in any other part of the World, required the establishment of close bonds in the
area from which subsistence was derived. This was done for survival, quite
obviously, and it manifests itself in the form of shared bounty. In other words, if
one village manages to harvest a whale, there is more meat than they can use.
The most logical method of insuring survival is to share the meat with surrounding
groups so that when times are tough in the village, it is more probably that other
areas with food will, in turn, share it with the village.
This concept, over the centuries, has created a very interconnected region where
deep bonds of trust and affection have formed. Initially, formed for the very
survival of the people, the current manifestation of this bond is in the trust in the
community and, quite naturally, there exists some amount of skepticism reserved
for outsiders.
Search and Rescue and Oil Spill Response Overview
Search and Rescue and Oil Spill Response
International agreements to collaborate and share resources continue to be
harmonized with specific responsibilities and obligations under the international
Search and Rescue Convention (SAR). Binational agreements and other
arrangements are made as are deemed beneficial.
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Figure 20 - Arctic Search and Rescue
http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/documents/propositions-and-reports/reports-to-the-
storting/2011-2012/meld-st-7-20112012-2/10/2.html?id=697778
Oil Spill Response
International response requirements are detailed under numerous agreements,
again, like search and rescue, bi-national and multinational arrangements exist.
Large cargo vessels have made transits through the Arctic.
High insurance rates combined with relatively unpredictable traffic through the
Arctic will continue to keep levels suppressed due to ice worthiness of vessels and
limited number of days availalble where reasonable risks associated with Arctic
travel retain a positive economic value to the shipping lines. While the vast
121
majority of cargo vessels are not ice worthy, there are some that are designed for
polar environments, and some have been crossing, like the Odysessy above and
the Vladimir Tikhonov pictured below.
In August 2011, the Suezmax tanker Vladimir Tikhonov broke the record for the
largest vessel to transit the Northern Sea Route. The route saved the Vladimir
Tikhonov over 400,000 in fuel and 7 days time and represents a vessel that is one
and a half the size of a Nimitz class aircraft carrier.
Figure 21 - Vladimir Tikhonov
http://www.marinetraffic.com/photos/of/ships/photo_keywords:636012814
Joint training exercises between Russia and Norway have been ongoing for years;
these exercises have been expanded to include Scandinavian nations. On the
Canadian and U.S. side, there is, in comparison, a considered gap in capability. In
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Canada, gaps in response speed are exacerbated by long distances to equipment
and resupply centres.
As the amount of exploration extends into the Arctic, the response centres are
located in the south for Canada. As a consequence, the Canadian Coast Guard has
set up emergency supply points for local communities to utilize as a first response.
While the interest in exploration in the Canadian Arctic is limited, the federal
government does state a capacity to handle a 10,000 tonne spill.
Figure 22 - Canadian Arctic Exploration
Source: http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1335971994893/1335972853094
Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev Ridge
123
The Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev Ridge undersea formations have been
claimed by the Russian Federation as extensions of their continental shelf and
they continue to extended their presence in the Arctic. The Russian Federation
has demonstrated their strategic interests in the Arctic through many different
actions, one of the most visible to the global media was planting the flag of the
Russian Federation on the sea floor at the North Pole. This is also, noteably, in the
vicinity of the Mendeleev Ridge extension claim (Gramling, 2007).
Figure 23 - Mendeleev Ridge near North Pole
Source: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/ibcao_gebco_comp.html
Further economic opportunity for Canada has very sizeable potential with a
considerable amount of hydrocarbon and mineral reserves in the Arctic.
Mineralogy and hydrocarbon resources will be covered in more detail in
subsequent sections. 124
Suffice it to say, the arguments related to undersea extensions of continental
shelves have considerable potential economic consequences. Russia is thought to
have enormous economic potential in the undersea portions of the Arctic they
claim. The Russian Natural Resources Ministry says research conducted will
substantiate a Russian claim to over 1.2 million square kilometers of territory
estimated to hold over 5 billion tons of equivalent fuel or roughly 426 billion cubic
meters of gas and over 80 million tons of oil (Novosti, 2007).
Government Relations at Different Levels
At the Arctic Summit, the national collaborations provide a unique environment
where collaboration is done outside of normal channels. The large bureaucratic
engines of national capitals and the industry of personnel that serve the national
institutions simply don’t exist in the Arctic. International collaboration may exist
between nation and state, province and city, or even a citizen and a head of state.
The unique gift associated with the Arctic is that it is a frontier. Even the strategic
relationships, during these heady days when the planet’s poles seize the global
imagination, are made in the most unexpected ways. Many relationships exist in a
loosely knit arrangement; alongside formal relationships that have been long
established. A considerable portion of government to government interaction has
been conducted on an ad hoc basis, in some cases; it arises out of unpredictable
circumstances.
In some instances, cultural or heritage related events have created opportunities
for international connections, these opportunities are precious. Many cultural
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relationships will be driven along the entire circumpolar Arctic; it will be the
relationships between the North and South that will be more complex to manage.
Sometimes relationships developed purely on an economic footing, return benefits
to the society or organization where development occurs. This may strongly
influence perception of development. When KOGAS was looking for a natural gas
supply, they visited the Northwest Territories of Canada in order to consider a
position in a large gas field.
Knowing infrastructure to move Mackenzie Delta gas to market is nearly non-
existent, KOGAS considered building a liquid natural gas facility. The development
of a port system that can safely withstand the harsh Arctic environment and safely
handle LNG shipments could create a potential solution set that would not only
require local assistance in many ways, but in a two way dialogue, there would be
gas brought to Tuktoyaktuk, one of the smaller settlements on the Arctic Sea.
This is but an example of how a business opportunity might unfold. But it’s also
an example of a global energy company in discussions with a municipal
government. These are ideas that have been discussed in part, for some time.
There are considerable challenges, not the least of which is being able to
manufacture polar class LNG transport vehicle. But this is not outside the reach of
Samsung Heavy Industries which has capacity to deliver vessels of a size that can
make the transport across the arctic economically feasible.
Initiatives of the People
126
The people of the Arctic have family relationships that cross the boundaries of
circumpolar nation states. It matters where you were born when you go to get a
passport, but it doesn’t matter the same way to a family in the Arctic, where other
family members may be located just a few miles away with the imaginary line of a
nation state somewhere in the middle.
One of the ways people have long undertaken their own form of relationship
building, the cultural exchanges are easily identified, well understood, and are
widely thought of as being excellent initiatives. Such initiatives can be undertaken
by NGO’s, private citizens, youth groups, communities, and even between
municipalities or schools.
Cultural exchanges often have some indirect or quasi-direct relationships to
different levels of government, which tends to demystify access to municipal
leaders and government officials in addition to community and business leaders.
In smaller communities, it is often welcome to facilitate and advance the ability of
NGO/NPO groups and individuals to make key contacts. These contacts may be
able to further group or individual objectives.
The process becomes increasingly complex in direct correlation to the size of
municipality. As a result, smaller sized municipalities seem to be well positioned
to convey a level of openness and accessibility that would be more difficult to
secure in major metropolitan areas. Proximity to large metropolitan areas,
however, adds an important aspect to cultural exchanges insomuch as it adds that
extra dimension exchange participants likely appreciate.
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Smaller towns near large metropolitan areas, especially capitals, have a
tremendous opportunity to be an excellent experience for international
participants. Nations may invest in their future strategic interests and enhanced
ability to shape international relations in a variety of ways. Establishing personal
relationships between different entities with overlapping mutual interests has long
proven to be a wise strategy.
THOUGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS
Circumpolar nations have enormously important economic considerations at stake
in the Arctic. The richness of the Arctic fisheries are quite important as economic
drivers for countries like Norway and Iceland.
In addition to holding potential for mineral and hydrocarbon wealth, one of the
most important aspects of the Arctic Political Economy will be an interplay
between environmental preservation and economic prosperity. The international
exposure of the Arctic, however, creates an environment where many nations will
claim their interest due to their geographical location. But many nations without
national borders that extend into the Arctic will have strong interests in acquiring
their position of influence in the coming decades.
The Arctic is a difficult and, at times, downright inhospitable climate to deal with.
But for the nations and organizations that are willing to overcome the challenges,
the rewards have significant potential. Equal to that potential will be, no doubt, a
growing environment where more and more international and multi-level
collaboration will be required in order to succeed.
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TABLE OF FIGURESFigure 1 - NOAA 2009 - 2014 CO2 Levels Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/....................................................................................................................................15
Figure 2 - Atmospheric CO2 Mauna Loa since the mid-20th Century Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/.........................................................................................16
Figure 3 - Law Dome Historical Ice Core CO2 Samples 75 Years Smoothed Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratories..................................................................................................20
Figure 4 - GISS CO2 Emissions to 2100 by Category Source : http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100218a/...................................................................................................21
Figure 5 - Climate Impacts to 2100 by Industry Mw Source : http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100218a/....................................................................................................22
Figure 6 - Great Ocean Conveyor Belt Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/ocean/circulation.htm...................................................................................................................27
Figure 7 - North Atlantic Circulation Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/legrande_01/...........................................................................................................................28
Figure 8 - 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Source : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html.....................................................................................................37
Figure 9 - Polar Visualization of Sea Ice Minimum 2012 Source : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html.............................................................................38
Figure 10 - Greenland Ice Melt Cumulative Days 2012 Source: http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2013/02/greenland-melting-2012-in-review/...........................................................41
Figure 11 - Cryoconites (Black Holes) in ice Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/PaintedGlaciers/page3.php......................................................................................42
Figure 12 - Ice Melt on Greenland Ice Shelf Source: http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2008/greenland_speedup.html.................................................................43
Figure 13 - Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Source: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov.....................................................................................................................................................................45
Figure 14 - Vladimir Putin Source: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/4779.....................................................................................................................................................................57
Figure 15 - Northern Route and Northwest Passage Source: http://www.unep.org/yearbook/2003/053.htm.................................................................................................................58
Figure 16 – Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal...............................................................................................................................59
Figure 17 - Athabaskan People Source: http://www.arcticathabaskancouncil.com/aac/?q=node/5...............................................................................................................................75
Figure 18 - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao meets with Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson................................................................................................................................88
Figure 19 - OSPAR Region 1 Source: http://www.ospar.org/content/content.asp?menu=00420211000000_000000_000000.......................................................................................94
Figure 20 - Arctic Search and Rescue http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/documents/propositions-and-reports/reports-to-the-storting/2011-2012/meld-st-7-20112012-
2/10/2.html?id=697778.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................103
Figure 21 - Vladimir Tikhonov http://www.marinetraffic.com/photos/of/ships/photo_keywords:636012814................................................................................................................105
Figure 22 - Canadian Arctic Exploration Source: http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1335971994893/1335972853094............................................................................................106
Figure 23 - Mendeleev Ridge near North Pole Source: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/ibcao_gebco_comp.html..........................................................................107
139
