Petrov, Williams, Shahumyan & Convery - input2012

NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete: DATE

National Borders and Transport Corridors in

Europe: Dublin-Belfast corridor case study

Laura Petrov, Brendan Williams, Harutyun Shahumyan

and Sheila Convery


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AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete: DATEWrite or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and

TITLETRANSPORT CORRIDORS and their ROLE:

› Link the cities; Link urban and rural areas

› Extensions of cities' functionality

Development of transport corridors a result of

urbanization.

ROLE:

› Improving the structure and functionality of the main

cities;

› Increase the economic importance of towns that exist

along the axis;

› Powerful stimulant for new development along the line.


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TITLE

BENEFITS OF TRANSPORT CORRIDORS

› IMPROVE CONNECTION

› DEVELOP JOINT USE OF INFRASTRUCTURE

› FACILITIES & COMFORT

› ECONOMIC

› COOPERATION

› IMPROVE MOBILITY

› IMPROVE COMMUNICATION NETWORKS

› POLITICAL


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What about the ENVIRONMENT?

› NEW residential areas, commercial and industrial

activities 6 URBAN SPRAWL ... Loss of agricultural

land, structural changes (e.g. disappearance of open

space), permanent grassland destruction;space), permanent grassland destruction;

› Transport corridors creates the “barrier creation” effect

degradeting the ecological functions of natural

habitats6 LAND FRAGMENTATION, LOSS of

BIODIVERSITY!

› Transport corridors are leading to an increase of traffic

and emission of CO26 NATURAL HAZARDS EVENTS

and CLIMATE CHANGE!


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Just few questions/

› What is the future accessibility of Europe?

› What is the impact on the economy?

› What is its impact on the European land use changes

and consequently the implicit effects on pollution and and consequently the implicit effects on pollution and

climate change?


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TITLE

Few examples of transport corridors:52 cross-border cooperation

programmes

- Rotterdam – Lille is an area of long

standing cooperation between FR, BE and NL.

- Dublin – Belfast, cooperation became

possible in the past decade with the resolution possible in the past decade with the resolution

of political problems.

- Dresden – Prague is an area that was

part of Eastern block and underwent drastic

changes after Berlin wall collaps.

- Fehmern Bridge links Southern islands of

DK to Northern of DE, enhancing the edge/local

developmentSource:http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/

atlas2007/eu/crossborder/index_en.htm


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TITLE

Greater Dublin Region and

Dublin – Belfast Transport Corridor

160 km

Belfast

Dublin


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Stakeholders meeting/

Analysing the area

Identify trends, constraints and issues

Identify driving forcesIdentify driving forces

Building scenarios WHAT IF?

- Balancing of advantages and burdens within

the region which offers synergy effects

- Role of Strategic Planning Guidelines

Modelling, Translating the storylines into

Quantitative scenarios


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What IF?

SCENARIOs : BU, CD, MD, RKey drivers Narrative of scenario

Population Birth rate, Immigration/Out-migration, Ageing

population, etc.

Socio-Economic Trends GDP, Sectorial developments, Economic

competitiveness, Growth and investment capacity, competitiveness, Growth and investment capacity,

Regulatory and fiscal measures on location decision

making, Drivers influencing markets/sub-markets,

Research and innovation, Technology, etc.

Urbanization/Spatial

Planning

Polycentric, Growth and sprawl, Urban-region, Small-

scale development, etc.

Transport and

Infrastructure Provision

Transportation, Cross border networks, Accessibility,

Trans-European Transport Networks, etc.

Policy Framework,

’Shock’ Clues and

Overall Trends

Policies, Environmental sustainability, Climate

change, Natural hazards, Economic competitiveness,

growth and investment capacity, etc.


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TITLEThe work cycle between scientists and

stakeholders/policy-makers


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› A range of what-if scenarios can be explored

› A variety of spatial planning policies can be

assessed

Why is MOLAND Useful?

assessed

› The environmental impacts of different land-use

policies can be quantified

› Provide robust framework for comparing,

discussing and visualizing a variety of spatial

planning policies


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How the model works?

The neighbourhood effectAccessibility

Zoning status

Future territorial scenario

Land use

Suitability

Zoning status

• Population• Income• Production• Employment

Socio-economic data


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Neighbourhood effect

• A circular neighbourhood consisting of 196 cells

is applied (radius eight pixels)

• The effect in the central cell is calculated in a

distance-decay waydistance-decay way

1 cell = 200 x 200 m


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TITLE

Regional level


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Developing and using the model

Unknown futureKnown history

NOW FUTUREPAST

Land UseLand Use Land UseLand Use

Facts on:

Suitability

Zoning

Accessibility

Population

Jobs

Land Use

Facts on:

Suitability

Zoning

Accessibility

Population

Jobs

Scenarios /

Forecasts on

Spatial Claims

Observed /

Historical

Changes

Calibration Exploration

Land Use

Scenarios on:

Suitability

Zoning

Accessibility

Population

Jobs

Validation


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TITLE

GDR: 2006-2026


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TITLE

Urban development

Indicators: urban development and loss of

natural areas

Urban areas vs. Natural areas Urban Scenarios (%)BU CD MD R

Total urban areas in GDR 86.2 89.2 89.3 51.8

Loss of total natural areas in GDR -5.6 -5.8 -5.8 -3.4

Total urban areas in Dublin Co. 41.8 53.4 45.6 20.8

Loss of natural areas in Dublin Co. -21.1 -26.9 -23 -10.5


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TITLEIndicator: Urban growth and sprawl

Residential discontinous sparse class

CountiesGrowth by Scenarios (%)

BU CD MD R

Louth 216.5 223.4 218.0 173.5

Meath 267.9 253.0 269.4 207.2

Dublin 141.8 153.4 145.6 120.8

Kildare 243.7 234.8 246.8 191.1

Wicklow 256.5 241.2 259.0 203.1


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Urban Development/

Counties BU CD MD R

Louth 129 194 129 0

Meath 144 278 167 44

Dublin 17 62 28 17 Tab. 1 – Change in Industrial land use

Tab. 3 – Change in Services land use from

2006 to 2026 (%)

Counties BU CD MD R

Louth 122 154 122 52

Meath 98 201 97 49

Dublin 4 52 23 12

Kildare 100 216 109 52

Wicklow 120 182 119 57

Counties BU CD MD R

Louth 118 262 148 0

Meath 121 246 149 10

Dublin 24 66 34 -9

Kildare 119 237 143 22

Wicklow 95 215 121 -3

Dublin 17 62 28 17

Kildare 115 231 152 40

Wicklow 100 300 190 10

Tab. 1 – Change in Industrial land use

from 2006 to 2026 (%)

Tab. 2 – Change in Commercial land use

from 2006 to 2026 (%)


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Conclusions: • Transport corridor is an important key driver for NEW

urban development; Dublin-Belfast corridor can be projected as a key to the island’s future economic recovery.

• How to manage the corridor and deliver a successful, sensitive and suitable outcome?sensitive and suitable outcome?Sensitive approach to the spatial planning; Integrated approach to land use planning and infrastructure; Policies; Integrated strategic management – economic growth points, residential settlements, rural areas.

• Using scenarios and indicators is a way to evaluate future land use development and offer useful support to stakeholders/policy-makers; contribution to European territorial policy.


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Thank you!!