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Resource security in F&A
A quick scan of major
VNO NCW
Clara van der Elst
Rabobank F&A Research
13 December 2013
2
SWOT of the Dutch F&A sector
13-12-13 Resources 2014: Safety of supply Dutch economy
•High dependence on imported grains & oilseeds,
particularly soy
•Small scale animal protein & dairy farming
•Horticultural sector dependent on exemptions for
energy tax & carbon emission schemes
•Primary growth potential limited through land
scarcity, environmental constraints
•Increased volatility of agri-commodity prices
•Increased focus on food safety, animal welfare and
food security
•High gas prices
•EU agriculture trade restrictions: competition from
more efficient food production to increase
•Increasing scarcity in protein
•High efficiency in genetics, feed conversion, by-
product usage
•High technology & innovation standards, synergies
with local chemical, pharmaceutical, biotech industry
•Efficient logistical & export capabilities
•Efficient & sizable food processing industry
•Rising demand for environmentally friendly & local
organic or sustainable food products
•Increased focus on food safety, animal welfare and
food security
•Increased cooperation via more integrated supply
chains
Opportunities Threats
Strengths Weaknesses
3
Dutch F&A Resource security – zooming in on a threat
13-12-13 Resources 2014: Safety of supply Dutch economy
Soy essential animal feed component No soy production in EU – only rapeseed & sunflower
33%
67%
Majority of EU protein imported
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
EU Protein
consumption
EU Protein
production
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Soy protein content
Sunflower/ rapeseed protein
content
4
Global protein scarcity to remain
13-12-13 Resources 2014: Safety of supply Dutch economy
Soy roughly 170% price increase since 2000, corn 100% Drivers behind protein demand
Not outweighed by other factors
Currently investigated:
•Lupine as a soy alternative, yields will have to double
from now (source: Kiemkracht 2013)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Wheat (US) Corn (US)
Soybeans (US) Linear (Soybeans (US))
5
Zooming in on an opportunity – niche in sustainable farming
13-12-13 Resources 2014: Safety of supply Dutch economy
CAGR of sustainable farming 30% 2009-2012, other food flat Niche opportunity
• Sustainably labelled food growing fast in the
Netherlands, more than doubling from 2009, although
still representing only 5% of total
•Other food stable or declining
•High quality, low agro-chemical usage, small scale
farming fits well with NL constraints
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
2009 2010 2011 2012
Billio
ns
Sustainable food consumption (RHS)
Other food consumption
6 6
Contact details F & A Supply chains
Rabobank International
Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Office address
Croeselaan 18
3521 CB Utrecht (UCR311)
Postal address
P.O. Box 17100
3500 HG Utrecht
The Netherlands
Rabobank International
Justin Sherrard
Global Strategist, Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Telephone +31 30 71 23182
E-mail [email protected]
Rabobank International
Clara van der Elst
Senior Analyst, Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Telephone +31 30 71 24507
E-mail [email protected]
Rabobank International
Paul Bosch
Associate, Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Telephone +31 30 71 24439
E-mail [email protected]
This presentation has been prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of participants at the VNO NCW event on 13 December in The Hagiue (“COMPANY” or the
“Company”), and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure other than to COMPANY. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any other purpose
without the prior written consent of the Coöperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (“Rabobank” or “Rabobank International”).
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