OPS Forum SSA Preparatory Programme 05.12.2008

OPS-G Forum 5th December 2008, Page 1

SSA Programme

OPS-G Forum

5th December 2008, ESOC, Darmstadt

N.Bobrinsky, ESA


Need for a European SSA System Space assets have become indispensable enablers for a wide spectrum of

applications. The European independent utilisation of space for research or services depends on the capability to safely operate the European space infrastructures.

SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on peaceful use of outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures

Space based capabilities are indispensable to realise this commitment in an effective manner . The dependency on these space based assets will grow, as evident also outside Europe. This dependency raises concerns, because any shutdown of even a part of the space infrastructure would have major consequences for economic activities and would considerably impair the organisation of e.g. emergency services.

SSA also serves the EU “Lisbon objectives” by supporting the development of new applications, new jobs and new market opportunities in the space sector

Space Situational Awareness can be seen as a basis for any future measures (political, diplomatic, regulatory, technical) to guarantee access to space


Initials steps in establishing a European SSA System

• Initial studies: ESA has performed in 2006-2008 several industrial studies, the outcome of which was: the compilation of a SSA Users’ Needs list (established by a selected group of

Users Representatives) The translation of these needs into technical requirements the identification of high level architectural options the identification of potential technological gaps

• SSA URG important role: A Users' representatives group continuously supports ESA in this initiative. The Group is composed by representatives of EU Military Staff, EDA, EC, Ministries of Defence of I, F, UK, E, D, B, N, by National Space Agencies of I, F, UK, E, D, B, N, CH, by the UN-WMO, by commercial operators (e.g. Inmarsat, Eutelsat) and insurance companies (e.g. MARSH). This User’s Group will continue its advisory role during the execution of the SSA Programme.

• Formal go ahead for the Programme Proposal: Consultation of ESA Member States at Council level has taken place in December 2007. The SSA initiative has been very well received. As a result, an Enabling Resolution (March 2008) has mandated ESA to prepare a Programme Proposal for the ESA Ministerial Council in November 2008.


Objectives and general context

The general objective is the establishment of a reliable and coherent SSA Programme covering the time frame 2009 – 2019. The first phase will consist of a SSA preparatory Programme and will cover the period 2009 - 2011

2009 - 2011 : Governance, Data PolicyRequirements, architecture of the future

European SSA system, delivery of precursor services

radar bread boarding, pilot Data Centres

Phase 2 (2012 – 2019): Implementation of a fully operational European SSA system

The first part of this Programme, the SSA Preparatory Programme, has been prepared for approval at the MC 2008, and has been approved !

The second part of this Programme, the SSA-Phase 2, will be prepared during 2011, taking into account the results of the SSA preparatory Programme, and is planned to be submitted to the approval of ESA Member States at the MC2011 (tbc). It will cover the timeframe 2012-2019.


The four domains of the European SSA System

The European SSA System can be broken down in four distinct domains:

a) Survey and Tracking of objects in Earth-bound orbitsb) Imagingc) Space Weatherd) Near Earth Objects (NEOs): hazardeous asteroids and comets

During the preparatory Programme (2009 – 2011), only Survey and Tracking, as well as Space Weather and NEOs domains will be addressed.

The Imaging of space targets, especially from sensors in Space will beaddressed at a later stage (phase 2, as from 2012), once the governance, data policy and data security matters will have been solved.


European SSA – high level overview

Ground-basedRadar and Optical

Sensors

Ground-basedSpace Weather

SensorsSpace Sensors

SSA Center(s)

User 1 User 2 User 3 User XUser 5User 4

SSA Data Policy


European SSA System – Functional Diagram


European SSA System – Functional Diagram

Dataprocessing

Country A – Data Centre

Classified DB – « A »

« A »Declassified DB

Country A - SSA Sensors

Debris

Space environment

NEO Spacecrafts

Dataprocessing

Country B – Data Centre

Classified DB – « B »

Country B - SSA Sensors

European SSA Sensors

Dataprocessing

European SSA – Data Centre

European SSAClassified DB

European SSADeclassified DB

« B »Declassified DB

User

Se

rvic

es

User

Se

rvic

es

User

Se

rvic

es

European SSA Users Country “B” Users

Country “A” Users

Classified flow of information

Unclassified flow of information

filtering

filtering

filtering

Commercial Users


Survey and Tracking (1)

Survey and Tracking Services

Detection and Tracking of objects in Earth-bound orbits (LEO, MEO, GEO, HEO) Identification and correlation of tracked objects Establishment of a catalogue Tasking of radar and optical sensors for follow-up observations During the development / prototyping phase, distribution of optical and radar tracking data, according to an agreed Data Policy Identification of high-risk conjunctions between tracked objects, issue of alerts and recommendations for avoidance manoeuvres Prediction of high-risk re-entry events and initiation of alert procedures detection of on-orbit explosions or collisions and issue of alerts

The Survey and Tracking Sensors can be very expensive (ca. 120 ME fora ground-based surveillance radar, able to detect 10cm objects at 1000 Km)



Estimated number of objects in orbit

space objects larger than d [cm]

LEO MEO-L MEO-H MEO-H & GEO

GEO

d [cm] count res.[%] trans.[%]

res.[%] res.[%] trans.[%]

res.[%]

100 4,658 50.0 17.5 0.9 4.5 7.1 20.0

50 6,549 52.3 18.1 2.7 3.7 7.0 16.2

30 9,091 56.6 16.5 2.2 3.3 7.2 14.1

10 20,505 54.2 13.6 1.0 3.9 10.7 16.4

5 44,092 48.6 13.5 0.5 4.5 14.3 18.4

3 90,541 44.8 15.1 0.2 4.8 15.9 19.0

1 606,474 32.1 23.3 0.2 5.6 24.8 13.8

altitudes [km] 120 to 2,000 km 15,000 to 38,000 km

observability radar difficult optical

Distribution and observability of space objects (MASTER 2005)



Distribution of objects in Earth orbit



Sensors for surveillance and tracking (images provided by H.Klinkrad and H.Krag)

Graves (France) – Bi-static surveillance radar



Sensors for surveillance and tracking

FGAN (Germany) – tracking radar

Zimmerwald (Switzerland) Tracking telescope



Sensors for surveillance and tracking

Cobra Dane (USA) – surveillance and tracking radar

AN/FPS-85 – Eglin AFB

UHF: 442 MHz

32 MW peak power

5134 TX modules

4660 RX modules

Vacuum tube technology: upgrade to solid state

studied in 1994


Imaging (1)

Imaging services (not addressed during the SSA Preparatory Programme)

Imaging of objects in Earth-bound orbits (LEO, MEO, GEO, HEO ) Provision of information about the state of man-made space objects Provision of information about the state (deployment, pointing , …) of satellite appendages Provision of information for the visualization and identification of space objects

Imaging can be performed by means of radars or telescopes


Imaging (2)

Radar image of Envisat (2005)


Imaging (3)

2007-Jun-19ISS range: 350 km0.64 m f9.6 Ritchey-ChretienPicture taken in Boston, US

Optical image of the ISS (2007)


What is Space Weather about? Effects of the sun, of the solar wind, solar flares, status of magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere, cosmic radiation effects

Space Weather services

Spacecraft and payload operations’ radiation protection. Thermosphere modelling for spacecraft drag calculation Launcher radiation protection for operations Space environment modelling for spacecraft design Human space flight radiation protection Ionospheric interference for navigation satellite signals Space environment modelling for SSA survey and tracking

A significant amount of activities have been performed at ESTEC (lead E.Daly, R.Marsden, A.Hilgers, A.Glover) and at ESOC (lead A.Donati, F. di Marco and other staff from OPS-HS)

Space Weather (1)


Space Weather (2)


Space Weather (3) – Source A.Donati/F. di Marco

Affected by LocalSpace Environment


Affected byIonospheric Disturbances


Affected byGeomag. Induced Currents






Air Transport ServicesAir Transport Services



Spacecraft Operations ServicesSpacecraft Operations Services

Launcher SupportLauncher Support

Human Spaceflight SupportHuman Spaceflight Support

Science Missions Operations ServicesScience Missions Operations Services

Navigation ServicesNavigation Services

Communications ServicesCommunications Services

Power Industry ServicesPower Industry Services

Survey, Oil & Gas ServicesSurvey, Oil & Gas Services

Spacecraft DevelopmentSpacecraft Development

Air Transport ServicesAir Transport Services


Space Weather – SEISOP high level view (3)(Space Environment System for s/c Operations)

Source: A.Donati


Space Weather resources (4)

NASA ACE

NOAA GOES

Ground Based Magnetometers

NASA/POLAR

ESA/NASA SOHO

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

184.35 184.4 184.45 184.5 184.55 184.6

mep0e1

mep0e2

mep0e3

Event

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

184.35 184.4 184.45 184.5 184.55 184.6

mep0e1

mep0e2

mep0e3

Event

NOAA/SEM

L1

ESA Radiation MonitorsAurora

GNSS Scintillation Network (CLS)

Ionospheric monitoring (GPS TEC)

Cre

dit

: E

. Dal

y (E

SA

TE

C-E

ES

)

The Space Weather resources will have to be augmented byEuropean sensors and existing Centres (e.g G, B, F, N)


Space Weather activities (5)

SEIS/SEISOP pilot projects, used at European Space Operations Centre since 2005.

Combination of data-provider of space weather services

Demonstrating the quantitative benefits of space weather services

These services could pre-figure what will be the Space Weather precursor operational services at the end of the preparatory phase of SSA (2011).

SWENET Project at ESTEC


What are the NEOs ? These are asteroids and comets that represent a risk of collision with the Earth. (Earth’s orbit crossing at a distance < 45 Millions KM)

Services in the domain of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) Detection and tracking of all NEOs above a given size or risk threshold Determination of the orbit state Identification and ranking of NEO collision risks with the Earth (e.g. Tunguska (Siberia), 1908) Production of warnings about potential NEO impacts Provision of liaison between observers, data analyzers and politicians Study of possible mitigation measures

Near Earth Objects (1)


Near Earth Objects population (2)


Near Earth Objects population (3)

The rate of discovery of NEOs (asteroids) in the last 10 years has been impressiveThese were mainly the result of the work carried out at the Minor Planet Center (USA)


Near Earth Objects Effect of an impact with an asteroid (4)

• The impact of an asteroid on the Earth at a speed between 15 and 30 Km/s has a devastating effect due to the release of an enormous kinetic energy:blast waves, tsunamis, atmospheric and electromagnetic changes

• The amount of energy released can be significantly higher than generated by the most powerful nuclear bombs, and will depend on the size of the asteroid colliding with the Earth.

NEO diameter MT* Average interval

75 m 10 to 100 1,000 years

350 m 1,000 to 10,000

16,000 years

3 Km 1,000,000 to 10,000,000

1,000,000 years

• * MT: Explosive power of 1 Mega Tonne of TNT• The Hiroshima bomb had an explosive power of 15 KT


Near Earth ObjectsTunguska event in Siberia (5)

• The 1908 explosion in Siberia was most likely caused by the air burst of a large meteoroid or comet fragment at an altitude of 5 – 10 Km above the Earth.

• The size of the object has been estimated at 50 – 80 m

• Estimates of the energy of the blast are in the order of 10 – 15 MT, which is 1000 times the energy released by the Hiroshima nuclear bomb !

• An area of ca. 2000 sq. Km has been destroyed by this explosion.


Security aspects affecting the SSA Programme

Some of the elements of the Programme will be subject to restrictions and security regulations due to their potential political sensitivity.

This concerns mainly the core element for the Space Surveillance activity, as well as the corresponding Data Centres entrusted with the tasks of collecting and distributing data and providing the related services.

The element related to Space Weather and NEOs activities is not so sensitive and no specific restrictions in the handling of the collected data is anticipated.

During the execution of the Programme, the security aspects of the Programme will be coordinated through a unit in charge of Governance and Data policy aspects, under guidance of an internal ESA Steering Board.


Breakdown of the SSA Preparatory Programme in independent elements

The Delegations requested the SSA preparatory Programme to cover 3 years (2009 – 2011), and be split in four elements:

a) Core element (Governance, Data Policy, Data Security, SSA general architecture, Space Surveillance precursor services)

b) Space Weather element (including some NEOs activities)

c) Radar element (bread boarding of essential radar sub-systems), in close coordination with ESA’s technology Programmes such as the TRP and GSTP – Enabler of the core element

d) Pilot Data Centres element (prototyping of the required Data Centres). This is an enabler of the core and Space Weather elements.


Financial envelopes of the four SSA elements

All participating States will have to subscribe to the core element to a level of at least 0.25 GNP.

The participation to the other elements is optional

The core element has a fixed envelope of 20 MEUR

The other elements have their envelope tentatively fixed at the following levels:- Space Weather element: 11 MEUR- Radar element: 11 MEUR- Pilot Data Centres element: 13 MEUR

This brings the value of the SSA preparatory Programme to an estimated amount of 55 MEUR (Actual subscription ca. 50 MEUR)


The SSA-Period 2 Programme will continue activities related to the SSA domains, with the main focus on the consolidation of the ground-based infrastructure and deployment of a space-based infrastructure:

Finalisation of the development and further deployments of the ground-based Facilities deployed under SSA-Period I

Enhancement of precursor operational services to fully-fledged operational services Development and Launch of an initial space-based infrastructure. This could include the deployment of satellites at various Earth-bound orbits with instruments dedicated to survey & tracking and space weather. The definition and subsequent deployment of a satellite at Lagrange point L1 could as well be initiated during the period 2, for the fulfilment of services related to Space Weather applications currently provided by the SOHO mission.

SSA-Period 2 activities


Internal Project Framework (1)

The responsibility for the SSA preparatory Programme has been entrusted to D/OPS.

The mandate given to ESA by the participating States encompasses the responsibility for the development of the European SSA System, as well as for the delivery of precursor pre-operational services in all the SSA domains.

At the same time, contacts will be pursued during the period 1 with the EU (EC, EDA, EUSC) for the definition of a suitable governance scheme applicable to the European SSA System during its operational phase, as well as for the identification of the adequate organization that will eventually take control of the SSA system operations.

A Data Policy for the handling of the SSA data will be elaborated together with the participating States.


Internal Project Framework (2)

During the execution of the preparatory Programme, overall responsibility will be assigned to a Core Team. Specific tasks such as governance and data policy, Ground and Space Segment Management will also be performed by staff in the core team.

Support tasks will be largely provided by staff from D/TEC and D/OPS, and to a smaller extent by staff from DG-P (Governance, relations with the EU), D/SRE (Space Weather and NEOs), and D/EOP (Space Weather)

Staff in the core team will be from D/OPS, or integrated into D/OPS for the duration of the SSA Programme.

Staff in the support team will provide functional support to the SSA Programme


SSA Project organization (1)

Estimated manpower requirements

The manpower required to cover all the SSA activities during the preparatory phase (2009 – 2011) are estimated at a level of 10 my/y.

This includes the manpower both in the core team and in the support team

In the core team, the manpower has to be provided by permanent staff, with management responsibilities. The manpower level of D/OPS and staff from other directorates integrated in the Project Team can be estimated at a level of 5 my/y

In the support team, the manpower can be provided by both expert permanent and contract staff. The support level can be estimated at a level of 5 my/y.


SSA Project organization (2)Core team during the preparatory phase

SSAProgramme

Manager

SSAProgramme

Manager

SSANEO

Systems Manager

SSANEO

Systems Manager

SSASurveillance and

Tracking Systems Manager

SSASurveillance and

Tracking Systems Manager

SSAImaging Systems Manager

SSAImaging Systems Manager

SSASpace Weather

Systems Manager

SSASpace Weather

Systems Manager

SSA GovernanceData Policy

Int. and EU Rel. I/F with the PB-SSA

SSA GovernanceData Policy

Int. and EU Rel. I/F with the PB-SSA

SSA Business

OperationsProject Control

SSA Business

OperationsProject Control

SSAGround

Segment Manager

SSAGround

Segment Manager

SSASpace

Segment Manager

SSASpace

Segment Manager

D/OPS

SSASteeringGroup

SSAUser’sGroup Management

Services

Procurement

Posts planned to be opened during the SSA Preparatory

Programme

Technology

OPS Forum SSA Preparatory Programme 05.12.2008