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IEA presentation 2010
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26/03/2010
Opportunities and complications in
the transition towards a sustainable
Leen Gorissen
Leen Gorissen
Transition Energy & Environment
BI - based Economy
26/03/2010 2© 2010, VITO NV
Bio-energy. This is IT?
26/03/2010 3© 2010, VITO NV
Workshop topic
GHG emissions from bio-energy (BioE)
Issues of responsibility
26/03/2010 4© 2010, VITO NV
Back to the basics
» GHG emissions - Climate change are connected with many
processes influencing global environmental change.
26/03/2010 5© 2010, VITO NV
It’s all connected…
… and biomass
plays a critical
role
Rockström et al. 2009
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Back to the basics
» GHG emissions - Climate change are connected with many
processes influencing global environmental change.
» Biomass plays a crucial role in promoting, maintaining and
sustaining the life support capacity of our planet
ecological carrying capacity
EC
OS
YS
TE
M S
ER
VIC
ES
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Back to the basics
» GHG emissions - Climate change are connected with many
processes influencing global environmental change.
» Biomass plays a crucial role in promoting, maintaining and
sustaining the life support capacity of our planet
» Low carbon society: “Is there an alternative to massive expansion of
biomass utilisation over the long haul?”
26/03/2010 8© 2010, VITO NV
BI - mass
Compared to other resources, biomass offers a particular variety and
flexibility of use what makes it so attractive for many purposes.
Source: www.bio-economy.net
Back to the basics
26/03/2010 9© 2010, VITO NV
BI - mass
Energy: fuels, electricity, heat
Fibres: paper, board, additives…
Materials: textiles, plastic, insulation, construction…
Chemicals: solvents, polymers, dyes, cosmetics, medicines
Non-food applications of include:
To ensure the best possible benefits from biomass use, next to all bioE
options, other biomass options should be evaluated as well and this in
the light of decoupling economic growth from resource use.
Back to the basics
26/03/2010 10© 2010, VITO NV
Source: "IB 2025, Maximising UK Opportunities from Industrial Biotechnology in a
Low Carbon Economy, A report to government by the Industrial Biotechnology
Innovation and Growth Team, May 2009"
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Lost in… DEFINITIONS
» Sustainability = Adopting practices and developing products that are
environmentally, socially and economically sound, and that can meet present
needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their
needs – Brundtland Commission
» Renewable energy = any form of energy that is naturally replenished - Wikipedia
» A sustainable resource = a resource that is used up at the same speed that it
is renewed. Biomass can be a sustainable resource if the plants are harvested
at the same rate as new plants mature – WikiAnswers
» Sustainable biomass use = ??? - International Panel for Sustainable Resource
Management
Biomass functions as a sort of natural battery for storing solar energy. As
long as biomass is produced sustainably - with only as much used as is
grown - the battery will last indefinitely – Union of concerned scientists
26/03/2010 12© 2010, VITO NV
Sustainable biomass use
= within the ecological carrying capacity of earth
= no disturbance in networks and cycles of life
= decoupling of economic growth to resource use?
Lost in… DEFINITIONS
Provisioning goods & services
versus
Supporting, regulating and cultural services & goods
BI - mass
Credit: iStockphoto
26/03/2010 13© 2010, VITO NV
Lost in… COMPLEXITY
» Complexity of LCA pathways
» Indirect effects / problem shifting / thresholds / tipping points…
» Marketable versus non-marketable biomass goods and services
Complex problems facing society
Complex society
Complex governance
PERSISTENT PROBLEMS
» Multitude of policy areas, rules & legislations
» Multitude of political agenda’s
» Lock-in of practices, technologies & management regimes
» Developed – Developing – Emerging economies
» Multitude of sectors, traditions, stakeholders…
» Multitude of views, values & stakes
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DIFFERENT STAKES
Divergent policy perspectives on biomass
» Climate perspective: reduce GHG emissions
» Agriculture & forestry perspective: create additional income
» Energy perspective: reduce fossil energy & improve security of
supply
» Environmental perspective: reduce GHG emissions & replace non-
degradable with biodegradable materials
» Economy perspective: create biomass business
» Industrial perspective: commercialize biomass technologies
» Trade perspective: increase multilateral trade opportunities
» Development aid perspective: reduce poverty
» …
» Nature’s perspective: operate within the ecological carrying capacity
of the earth
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Nature’s perspective vs theoretical/physical biomass
potential?
» The theoretical biomass potential excludes the role biomass plays in
maintaining ecosystem integrity
» If ecosystems degrade, the biomass potential will be affected
» Decrease in pest & disease control
» Decrease in pollination efficiency
» Decrease in nutrient & water efficiency = decrease in growth
& yield
» Reinforcing climate change impacts
» Decline in resilience to deal with average climate change
» Decline in resilience to deal with increase in climate extremes
» …
26/03/2010 16© 2010, VITO NV
Economic versus ecological sense
» A favoured approach of dealing with economic recession or
stagnating economies in the past has been to increase public and
consumer spending.
» “While increasing our consumption of the earth‟s resources may
have been the solution to recession in the past, it is not the solution
of the future. The more we erode the earth‟s carring capacity, the
more the ability of leaders to provide answers to economic and
social crises diminishes.” – Ross 2009
» “We need to „shift our emphasis from „managing resources‟ to
managing ourselves so that we learn to live as part of nature.”
- Wackneragel & Rees 1996; Benyus 1997; …
Beyond GDP
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Economic versus ecological sense
» Optimize rather than maximize:
» Multifunctional
» Closed lean cycles
» Cascade : Ecopyramid
Electricity and heath production
Bulk chemicals and biofuels
Bioplastics & polymers
Food &Feed
Cosmetics
Pharmaceuticals
Principles based on
concepts from
- Eco-pyramid
- C2C
- Biomimicry
26/03/2010 18© 2010, VITO NV
Electricity and heath production
Bulk chemicals and biofuels
Bioplastics & polymers
Food &Feed
Cosmetics
Pharmaceuticals
26/03/2010 19© 2010, VITO NV
Economic versus ecological sense
» Optimize rather than maximize:
» Multifunctional
» Closed lean cycles
» Cascade : Ecopyramid
» Synergetic strategies
» Integrated systems: integrate ecosystem services in man-
made landscape
“Due to the large amounts of lignocellulosic feedstock required for
a bio-based economy, it seems currently not possible to integrate
biomass production into existing food production via so-called
integrated energy and food systems.”
(IEA 2010)
Economic versus ecological sense
26/03/2010 20© 2010, VITO NV
Source: Foley et al. 2005
26/03/2010 21© 2010, VITO NV
Economic versus ecological sense
» Optimize rather than maximize:
» Multifunctional
» Closed lean cycles
» Cascade : Ecopyramid
» Synergetic strategies
» Integrated systems: integrate ecosystem services in man-
made landscape
» Copy nature’s principle to increases yield (push-pull systems,…)
Economic versus ecological sense
26/03/2010 22© 2010, VITO NV
Yield limitations
» Yield increase is often mentioned as a silver bullet solution to
biomass production capacity
- land scarcity
- phosphorus scarcity
- water scarcity
- mean CC impact leads to average yield decrease
- yield decrease because of increase in climate extremes
- eutrification, acidification, pollution side-effects
- GHG emissions
- …
26/03/2010 23© 2010, VITO NV
The importance of resilience
» Earth is in a dynamic state of non-equilibrium
Rock the bowl!
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The importance of resilience
» Earth is in a dynamic state of non-equilibrium
… creates conditions conductive to life
… adapts & evolves
» There is a lot to learn from nature about adaptiveness & resilience
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26/03/2010 26© 2010, VITO NV
The way forward…
Rethink the way we think about things!
Remake the way we make things!
Mainstream real C2C, BIOMIMICRY,…
concepts
Revisit the way we communicate about things!
Revise the way we govern things!
Mainstream concepts from CHANGE
MANAGEMENT, TRANSITION theory,…
26/03/2010 27© 2010, VITO NV
No one way ticket; a cyclic process of learning by doing
and doing by learning…
Organising a transition arena
for a transition theme
Experiments and programmes
for system innovation
Development of
long-term
visions
Monitoring and
evaluation of
experiments,
programmes and
transition
26/03/2010 28© 2010, VITO NV
Self fulfilling prophecy ?
Envision & Engage & Experiment & Learn & Adjust
No one way responsibility…
26/03/2010
We are
looking forward
to welcoming you
at the i-SUP2010
conference!
