Research and Commercialization Opportunities for the future Low

Carbon Economy

Bill St. ArnaudBill.st.arnaud@gmail.com

Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

Theme of this talk• Climate Change is real and is happening much faster than the most

pessimistic forecasts

• Traditional solutions to climate change – particularly energy efficiency are insufficient and in some cases counter productive

• We need to move to low or zero carbon solutions and de-couple energy consumption from production of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. Innovation is essential

• Current electrical grid architecture and utilities are a major impediment

• Information, Computing and Telecommunication (ICT) technologies can play a critical role

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Global Average Temperature

2009 second warmest year ever

Spring 2010 warmest everThis is despite a solar sun spot minimum

The Earth is Warming Over 100 Times Faster TodayThan During the Last Ice Age Warming!

CO2 Rose From 185 to 265ppm (80ppm)

in 6000 years or 1.33 ppm per Century

CO2 Has Risen From 335 to 385ppm (50ppm)

in 30 years or 1.6 ppm per Year

http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/program_history/keeling_curve_lessons.html

Climate Forecasts

MIT

> MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2°C– 11°C increase in Northern

Canada & Europe– http://globalchange.mit.edu/pub

s/abstract.php?publication_id=990

> Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today– Most of Canada & Europe was

under 2-3 km ice– With BAU we are talking about

5-6°C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years

Climate Change is not reversible

• Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed

• GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate

• Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions All we hope to achieve is

to slow down the rapid rate of climate change

Weaver et al., GRL (2007)

Climate tipping points

• USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.

• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science– “Society may be lulled into a false sense

of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

Arctic Summer Ice MeltingAccelerating Relative to IPCC 2007 Predictions

Source: www.copenhagendiagnosis.org

2009-10 Canada winter 4.2C warmer than average

Urgency of Action• “We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is

inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years.

• You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it.

• This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy.

• Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.”

Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1

The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency• Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased

energy efficiency of equipment and processes

• Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand– Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with

rebound effect)– In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ)

which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances– Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and

electricity required for appliances– Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances

• The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy

More on Energy Efficiency• If we add all of the potential savings from energy efficiency, they only abate about 25% of

GHG emissions.

• To make matters worse, the “low hanging fruit” will grow smaller over time, decreasing returns to our efforts.

• “To reduce our GHG emissions by 85 percent by 2050, we need radical innovation to provide clean energy alternatives, rather than just using carbon-based fuels a bit more efficiently. ”– ITIF Institute - Debunking the Myths of Global Climate Change

• Offsetting efficiency savings will be more people in the US in the next decase(391 million vs. 305 million), more households (147 million vs. 113 million), more vehicles (297 million vs. 231 million) and a bigger economy (almost double in size).

Obama's Energy Pipe Dreams http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/21/obama-s-energy-pipe-dreams.html

• China’s population, 1.3 billion strong, is clamoring for more and bigger cars, for electricity-dependent home appliances and for more creature comforts like air-conditioned shopping malls. As a result, China is actually becoming even less energy efficient.– China Fears Consumer Impact on Global Warming

• http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/05/business/global/05warm.html

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The challenge of utilities• Utilities prime motivator is to sell as much power as possible – whether publicly or

private owned

• Utilities are focusing “peak” power demand to avoid investment in new power plants – hence Smart grids and meters– As much as possible they want to increase base load power demand which is

mostly coal and some nuclear as this is most cost effective power– Energy efficiency paradoxically allows utilities to use more GHG producing coal

power, rather than costly but environmentally friendly, gas and hydro

• For public relations purposes, or as ordered by government, they are purchasing expensive “green” power– But need to keep coal and nuclear plants operating in case of green power is

unavailable– Ideally they want to keep coal and nuclear plants operating at 100% because they

are most efficient under full load and it is also very difficult for these plants to change power output to match load

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Trends: Policy and Legislative Changes

•Provincial/Territories: -BC (Bill 44, 31) -AB (Climate Change and Emissions Management Act (2007)) -Saskatchewan Bill No. 95) -Manitoba (The Climate Change and Emissions Reductions Act (June 2008)) -Ontario (Draft Bill) -Quebec (Bill 42) -Atlantic Canada – targets set in climate change plans

•Government of Canada's proposed GHG Offset System •July 8, 2009 - Statement of G8 on energy and climate

Public Sector to be carbon neutral by 2010 in BC

• British Columbia was first government to introduce carbon tax in Western Hemisphere

• Provincial Government in province of British Columbia has mandated all public sector institutions to be carbon neutral by 2010– Other provinces exploring to implement the same policy– New Zealand has also made the same requirements

• Many universities and businesses are adopting voluntary carbon neutrality objectives– Dell, Cisco, Google etc

• This will have big impact on research organizations like NRC

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• Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act.

• The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province.– 2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007.– 2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007.

• Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral.

• If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton

SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009

Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD

GHG Regulation in British Columbia

State Climate ActionUS STATES 2009

•72% Have Climate Action Plans•42% Have GHG Reduction Targets•66% Are Experimenting with Cap & Trade

SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009

Zero Carbon strategy essential

• Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe

• With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissions– Anything times zero is always zero

• Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy– Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy– http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-bas

eload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/

• But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load– http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmissi

on.pdf– Local wind/solar will be an important component

Grand Challenge – Building solutions using renewable energy only

• Most government GHG plans plan to 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources

• How do you provide mission critical services when energy source is unreliable?– Ebbing wind or setting sun

• Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks

• Need new energy delivery architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery– Information Communication Technologies (ICT) can play a critical role – Not so much in energy efficiency, but building smart solutions that adapt to

availability of renewable power

ICT Enabling Effect is Significant

• Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sector’s own footprint by 2020

– 7.8 Giga-tons carbon dioxide equivalent

– Greater than US or China’s current annual emissions

• Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industrial Processes, and Power

• No other sector can achieve this enabler effect !!

Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008

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Canada’s ICT enabler effect

•ICT sector contributes one megatonne of GHG emissions or < 1% of Canada’s total

•Enabling effect estimated at between 19.1 – 36 MT of CO2e

•Telework, Car pools, Transportation logistics, Virtual Meetings, Smart Buildings & e-commerce

•Estimated financial benefit between $7.5 billion – $12.9 billion

Source: Industry Canada

The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today

www.smart2020.org

But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!

ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption

Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724)

Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector

www.smart2020.org

The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase

from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020

PCs Are Biggest Problem

Data Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit

Telecom & Internet fastest growing

IT biggest power draw

Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%

Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%

Lighting11%Lighting11%

IT Equipment 30-40%

IT Equipment 30-40%

Other6%Other6%

Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006

Energy Consumption World Wide

Transportation

25%

Transportation

25%

Manufacturing25%

Manufacturing25%

Buildings50%Buildings50%

Energy Consumption Typical Building

Digital vs Traditional appliances

• Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses–Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically

• ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES–-Cooling also a major problem in cities

• But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid.– Can be easily reached by an optical network– Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power– Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site

• ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites– Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe

Get off the Grid!

Zero Carbon Data Center

source: Dan GillardBCnet 04/09

BC’s Green Data Centre MUST be in Proximity to a Clean Source of Power

MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA

• The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC.

• It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke– http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/ci

sco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center–

Zero Carbon Data Centers

Hydro-electric powered data centers

Data IslandiaDigital Data Archive

ASIO solar powered data centers

Wind powered data centersEcotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user

GreenStar –World’s First Zero Carbon Internet

Distributed computing architectures, applications, grids, clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, remote instrumentation and sensors, etc.

Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks.

Develop benchmarking tools to earn CO2 offset dollars for university and ICT department

http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

GreenStar Network• World’s first zero carbon network• Nodes in Ireland, USA Spain and

Belgium to be added shortly• http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures

• Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers– http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf– Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data

centers at only a 3% cost increase

• Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems– Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of

the day and energy prices are low– Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices– 45% maximum savings in energy costs– http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf– http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/

• Computing for the future of the planet– http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/– http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

Building a “5G” wireless network

• Over 100,000 cell phone towers to be powered by renewable energy by 2012

• Vertical axis turbines and solar• Ericsson (Montreal) world leader in these developments• Existing 3G and 4G networks cannot handle data load• Need to offload data at nearest node or tower• New Wifi standards 802.11u allow for data handoff from 3G networks• WiFi nodes can be powered by renewable sources such as roof top solar

panel over 400Hz power systems or ethernet power• Cell phones also become sensors

Impact of 5G networks

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• The PC is out of the loop• The phone is a sensor platform– Hardware add-on innovation– Location based sensing– Touch screen UI

• Processing is done in real time in the cloud– Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device– Big data analysis

• Building new networks on the back of existing ones• Reinventing a major industry

Source: Tim OReilly

400 Hz Power Systems• In most homes ICT equipment consumes more power than traditional

appliances– Large part of the power draw is vampire loads from chargers and

standby power• ICT is also largest consumer of power in most offices• Roof top solar panels and mini wind mills are ideal to provide standby

power to chargers, cell phones and other ICT equipment– Don’t need 100% reliable power from the utility

• But how do you distribute power from roof top power systems only to low power devices?– Multiplex 400 Hz power with 60 Hz power over existing copper

• 400 Hz power systems are already in use in aircraft and military equipment

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Mobile Charging for Electric Vehicles

• Electric vehicles have limited range and need several hours to recharge• They will also cause major distribution to electric grid as most residential

transformers are not designed for their load– http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/advanced-cars/speed-bumps-ah

ead-for-electricvehicle-charging• Why not charge vehicles as they are moving are stuck in traffic or at drive

thru facilities• “Will that be an electric charge with your fries?”• Solar panels and wind mills located on roofs of fast food restaurants or

banks can provide quick capacitive charge to vehicles• Similar systems can be used along road sides with “slot car” type of road

strips to provide connectivity

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Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004

Virtualization and De-materialization

Direct replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact

Policy Frameworks• Cap and Trade e.g. European ETS

– This is the current favourite instrument being deployed by many governments around the world. – Cap and trade systems can be easily gamed and developing meaningful measurable, verifiable and

enforceable offset standards may be very tough. • Cap and Dividend

– is a relatively new concept and works on the similar principle as cap and trade except that all monies used to purchase offsets by large emitters are paid in dividends to consumers.

– The big advantage that jurisdictions with large emissions are not penalized as the money spent on offsets is returned to the constituents in that jurisdiction.

– There is currently a cap and dividend bill in the US congress. The proposed cap and trade bill in California is also evolving along these lines.

• Cap and Reward – is a variant of cap and dividend where instead of paying cash dividends from the sale of offsets the money

is earmarked for the purchase by consumers and businesses of low carbon products and services such as ICT.

– This creates a virtuous circle where the money earned by the sale of offsets is used to further promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in a given jurisdiction.

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Case Western pilot with Kindle DX• One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of

CO2

• One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2

• One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2

• Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45 Tons CO2– http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/car

bon-footprint-stuff.html

Free Wifi on Buses• There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which

operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys).

• In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps.

• Business bus service in San Francisco offers office on the move – free wifi, femto cell service etc

• • http://www.muniwireless.com/2009/01/14/school-kids-enjoy-wi-fi-on-green-bus/

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Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure

• Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs)– http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf– Pilots in Cleveland, Switzerland, Ottawa, etc

• Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill

• Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output

• Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption– May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity +

broadband + telephone + cable

• Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play

What are carbon offsets?• Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of

carbon offsets (ISO 14064)

• Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon– Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc

• Two types of markets– Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England– Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc– Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or exchanges

• Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI

The Carbon Economy• $500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050

• $100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions credits by 2030

• Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92 billion

• Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms & IT– US market estimated at $700 billion– http://telephonyonline.com/global/news/carbon-trade-arnaud-0626/

Source: ClimateCheck

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Carbon offsets to fund research• Conference Board report overview of GHG programs in Canada• The Economic and Employment Impacts of Climate-Related Technology

Investments http://www.conferenceboard.ca/documents.aspx?did=3586

• Alberta GHG program allows emitters to invest in research that reduces GHG– According to Conference Board of Canada this results in best bang for

the buck– Estimate will result in $11.8 Billion in benefits to Canada

• OECD also recommends that green research be funded through carbon offsets

• CRC is exploring a project to translate internal energy savings into additional research dollars

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Final remarks

• The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions

• Think carbon, not energy

• We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020

• 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networks

• Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

Let’s Keep The Conversation Going

Blogspot

Bill St. Arnaud

http://green-broadband.blogspot.com

Twitter

http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud

E-mail list

Bill.St.Arnaud@gmail.com

Background Slides

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• Most R&E networks charge a membership fee or base fee based on size of institution, research dollars or number of students

• Instead propose to charge membership or base fee based on institution’s energy consumption– E.g. 1% of total Kwh for the past year

• R&E network agrees to provide a variety of services at no charge including• “X” miles of dedicated wavelengths• “Y” Mbps of Internet bandwidth• “Z” hours of video- conference• “W” time on a commercial compute cloud or central storage• etc

• Institution is encouraged to reduce energy consumption and there is penalty in services if they do so

New R&E network funding scenario“Cap and Reward”

Other sectors (40%) (e.g. manufacturing, coal mining, export transport)

Emissions under direct consumer control (35%)

Consumer influenced sectors (25%)(e.g. retail, food and drink, wholesale, agriculture, public sector)

Heati

ng

Private cars

ElectricityOther transport

Consumers control or influence 60 per cent of emissions

http://www.cbi.org.uk/pdf/climatereport2007full.pdf

A More Accurate Term is ‘Global Climatic Disruption’

This Ongoing Disruption Is:• Real Without Doubt• Mainly Caused by Humans• Already Producing Significant Harm• Growing More Rapidly Than Expected”

Earth’s Climate is Rapidly Entering a Novel RealmNot Experienced for Millions of Years

“Global Warming” Implies: • Gradual, • Uniform, • Mainly About Temperature, • and Quite Possibly Benign.

What’s Happening is: • Rapid, • Non-Uniform, • Affecting Everything About Climate, • and is Almost Entirely Harmful.

John Holdren, Director Office of Science and Technology Policy June 25, 2008

Obama orders 28% reduction in Government GHGs

• Will reduce Federal energy use by the equivalent of 646 trillion BTUs,– equal to 205 million barrels of oil, and taking 17 million cars off the

road for one year.• This is also equivalent to a cumulative total of $8 to $11 billion in avoided

energy costs through 2020. • Other governments around the world expected to follow

– Maybe even Canadian government?

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IEEE Standard GHG from Hydro and Wind Power Projects

• The IEEE has begun work on a standard which will help hydro- and wind-power projects calculate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission credits.

• The standard, IEEE P1595(TM), "Standard for Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emission Credits from Small Hydro and Wind Power Projects, and for Grid Baseline Conditions," will establish an internationally acceptable basis for measuring, evaluating and quantifying the eligible, real, measurable, verifiable, and unique reduction in CO2 emissions attributable to the specific generation technologies of wind power and small hydro, for use in emissions trading systems.

• In addition, the standard will help provide an answer to the generic question, how can one country or jurisdiction to a greenhouse gas emissions trade be assured and satisfied that it is getting real and true value for a purchased GHG emissions credit from another country or jurisdiction.

• The standard will use Project Protocols for Wind Power; Small Hydro and Grid Baseline established by Natural Resources Canada as its seed documents.– http://standards.ieee.org/announcements/ieeeP1595_greenhouse.html

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