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Migration Statistics Improvement Work presentation by Nigel Swier, ONS Centre for Demography. Thursday 5th November 2009
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Migration Statistics Improvement Work
Nigel Swier
ONS Centre for Demography
Context
• Migration is a key part of population change
• It is difficult to measure
• There is no direct source or register
• Estimated using surveys and other sources
Context - Change
UK Components of Change, mid-1991 to mid-2007
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1991
-199
2
1992
-199
3
1993
-199
4
1994
-199
5
1995
-199
6
1996
-199
7
1997
-199
8
1998
-199
9
1999
-200
0
2000
-200
1
2001
-200
2
2002
-200
3
2003
-200
4
2004
-200
5
2005
-200
6
2006
-200
7
Th
ou
san
ds
Natural change Net migration & other changes
Importance of Population Estimates
• Local authority resource allocation
• Planning and monitoring service provisione.g. education and health services
• Grossing up survey resultse.g. Labour Force Survey
• Denominators in the derivation of ratese.g. GDP, unemployment rates, mortality & fertility
rates, performance indicators
Work Programme
• Data sharing legal gatewaysSchools Census, Migrant Worker Scan, student data
• Statistical research and development• Source data improvements
e.g. Port Survey Review, patient register, new surveys
• Work in kind by other government departments
e.g. E-Borders, DWP outputs
• Reporting strategy• User engagement
Already Implemented
• Improvements to methods in 2007 – distribution of migration, emigration modelling
• Improved port survey– Better coverage of migrants at key ports in IPS
• More coherent migration reporting– Quarterly report and less confusion on on multiple
outputs across government
• Indicators of migration and improved timeliness• National level estimates of short-term migration
Next Improvement Package
• Distribution of international migration using administrative data
• Student adjustments using HESA data• Refinements to previous methods• Local level short term migration estimates• Quality measures around population
estimates• Indicators and early migration outputs
What changes numbers?
Distribution of international migration• Issue: Current method uses 2001 Census –
out of date distributions?• Solution: Use timely administrative sources in
conjunction Internal migration flows• Issue: Current source (patient registers) can
be slow at recording moves e.g. of students• Solution: Enhance with HESA student data
which includes term-time address
Quality Assurance
Published QA Strategy (June 2009)• ONS development protocols met (Methdology
QA panels)• External reference panels in development• Local Insight Reference Panels to sense-
check outcomes• Expert peer review (academics etc)• Consultation and engagement
Consultation
• Indicative impacts published 30 November– Impact of improvements for all LAs presented– Supporting methodology documentation
• Consultation period to 18 January 2010– Opportunity for users to provide input
• Seven regional roadshow seminars in December– Manchester, Birmingham, York, London, Bristol, Leicester,
Llandindrod Wells
• Revised back series for estimates 2002-2008 will be published 27 May 2010
Next Phase
• More extensive use of administrative data for statistical purposes– More data sharing gateways– Linking and matching between sources
• E-Borders roll-out– Improved counts of migrants into and out of UK
• Better quality measures– Ability to make statements about confidence in figures
• 2011 Census– Basis of estimation for the next decade
Keeping up to date
• Quarterly updates and other information at www.statistics.gov.uk/imps
• Implementation seminars• Consultation period• Email: [email protected]