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Networked ExponentialsAchieving More In A Hyperconnected World
David Orban @davidorban, @dotsub
@singularityu, @netsocproj
Themes
Unexpected Consequences
Unmanageable Complexity
Unprecedented Value
1. Context 2. Resources 3. Principles 4. Conclusions
0. Intro To 2x
4
CALL TO ACTION
How would you leverage technology for social impact?
Environment Food Energy Water Security Poverty Education Global Health Space
5
SU MODEL
10^9+ IMPACT
BILLIONS OF LIVES
6
OUR EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & ROBOTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY
NANOTECHNOLOGY & DIGITAL FABRICATION
NETWORKS & COMPUTING SYSTEMS
7
SPEED, EFFICIENCY, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, POWER
COMPUTING IS ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY
Moores Law: Price performance doubles every 18 months. Applies to all information technology.
Integrated Circuit Transistor Vacuum Tube Relay Electromechanical
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 08 10
10-10
10-5
100
105
1010
1015
Perf
orm
ance
(Cal
c./s
econ
d pe
r $1
000)
Time
8
4DS OF EXPONENTIALS
DECEPTIVE TO
DISRUPTIVE
D I G I T I Z E D E M A T E R I A L I Z E D E M O N E T I Z E D E M O C R A T I Z E
Disruptive Stress /Opportunity
..., 0.0625, 0.1250, 0.5000, 1, ...
2000: First Human Genome at $3B
..., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128
2014: Human Genome at $2K
2020: Human Genome at 2c?
1. Context
William GibsonThe future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed yet
Acceleration
Fal
flickr John Wilson
Coevolution
Pyramids
archer10
Dreams
Feudalism
dicktay2000
Industrial Age
sludgeulper
Infrastructure
Network Age
jurvetson
Superstructure
Jurvetson
Wikipedia
Restoring
Wikipedia
Augmenting
Fine Grained Mapping
How can you enhance the beauty of the world, allying yourself with others
who want to do the same?
Society changes and evolvesFractal
Evolutionary Fitness
Resilience
Exponential
If computers could learn, grow and evolve the same way humans can, the world would be a much better place
Geordie Rose
Interaction Design
Blind
Communicating
Touch
Vision
Conversation
Thinking
Every object must be smart
Leandro Agr
Intelligence Augmentation
Artificial Intelligence
Anthropocene
99%
1% 2%
98%
10.000 BC Today
terrestrial vertebrates in the wild
humans pets cattle
Anthropocene
AnthropoceneUnsustainable
myfavoritedinosaur.com, LadyofHats, OpenClips
Reason
Technology Is Key
Science
Hierarchy
Network
The Fundamental Thesis Of The Network Society
1
Widespread social and economic change only happens once a solid technological foundation evolves to make it sustainable.
2
Globally distributed and decentralized technologies have emerged that achieve superior results with respect to centralized and hierarchical ones.
3
These unstoppable technologies undermine and disrupt the Nation States supporting pillars. The resulting socioeconomic organization is the Network Society.
Network Society Pillars
Photovoltaics - Ecat?1. Energy
2. Manufacturing
3D hydroponics - Plantlab
plantlab
3. Food
4. Health
5. Learning
P2P Currency - Bitcoin
sylvar
6. Finance
7. Security
8. Policy
thecrazyfilmgirl
Unstoppable
Toolbox
Living In The Network Society
New Organizations
Empowerment
Emancipation
Experiential
Learning
Year Prohibitions Ending
1933 Alcohol
1967 Interracial marriage
1976 Assisted suicide
1999 Same sex marriage
2012 Recreational marijuana
Tolerance
Dignity
Community
Ilya Frankazoid / shutterstock.com
Overcoming Dichotomy
Sustainability For-Profit Nonprofit New
Economical
Social & Environmental
Spiking State of Alarm
Incumbent systems
http
s://e
n.wi
kiped
ia.or
g/wi
ki/Zo
ngli_
Yam
en#m
ediav
iewer
/File
:Zon
gli_Y
amen
_mem
bers
_189
4.jp
g
Bureaucracies
Resistant
http://bestandworstever.blogspot.it/2012/04/worst-playground-sign-ever.html
Precaution
http
://pi
xaba
y.com
/en/
mim
ic-pa
nic-s
crat
ch-w
oman
-per
son-
1569
28/
Panic
Overreaction
Overreaction
Overreaction
Overreaction
http
s://c
omm
ons.w
ikim
edia.
org/
wiki/
File:
Don't
_Pan
ic_Ba
dge.
jpg
Its All OK
Themes 2
Exponential Uncertainty
Lifespan Of An S&P 500 CompanyYe
ars
1920s Today
15
67
Phot
o: S
hutte
rsto
ck
30 m 0.5 m
Phot
o: S
hutte
rsto
ck
1 m/s ?
Phot
o: S
hutte
rsto
ck
familymwr
Linear
Exponential
Emotional Computing
When Machines Start To Think
IBM Watson
Science And Engineering Of Morality
2. Resources
Renewables
Wood
30 Years
Hydrocarbons
50M Years
Fission
4B Years
Fusion
Not Renewable
Photovoltaic
Sudden Shifts
The latest solar PV project tendered in Dubai returned a low bid* that set a new global benchmark and is competitive with oil at US$10/barrel and gas at US$5/MMBtu.
* 200MW solar tender won by ACWA Power. $US0.0584/kWh without subsidies.http://www.nbad.com/content/dam/NBAD/documents/Business/FOE_Full_Report.pdf
Allocation
Material Resources
P2P Currency - Bitcoin
sylvar
Financial Resources
Energy
Reputation
Ambition
3. PrinciplesSome
Seb PaquetAny Sufficiently Advanced Job Is Indistinguishable From Play
Transparency
Identity
Trust
Anybody where time
{
Open Source Distributed
Decentralized
Searching
Topic Area
Dep
th o
f Exp
lora
tion
A B C
1
2
...
3
...
Solution Search Space
Depth First Search Strategy
A B C
1
2
3
4
5
Topic Area
Dep
th o
f Exp
lora
tion
...
Breadth First Search Strategy
A B C D E
1
2
3
Topic Area
Dep
th o
f Exp
lora
tion
...
David Gelb
Jiro Ono
Older Strategy
A B C
1
2
...
Specialization
Topic Area
Dep
th o
f Exp
lora
tion
3
...
cosimoorban
Richard Saul Wurman
Newer strategy
A B ...
1
2
Cross Fertilization
Topic Area
Dep
th o
f Exp
lora
tion
...
3
C
4. Conclusions
Trying
The Privilege of Failure
The formula for success? Double your rate of failure.
Thomas J. Watson, IBM
The Internet multiplied a thousandfold our failure rate, without increasing the cost of our success
Cory Doctorow
Innovating
Inventing
Questions
Answers
Ignorance
Competitiveness
Innovation
Invention!
Adapting
Adopting
t(idea-action)!0
Opportunity
It Is Also About You
davidorban.com @davidorban
@dotsub @netsocproj@singularityu
Image credits: Shutterstock, family archives, NASA
flickr Paul Downey